Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Overpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($3600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nico Collins ($7600), Joe Mixon ($6500), Patrick Mahomes ($6000), Isiah Pacheco ($5500), Xavier Worthy ($5200), C.J. Stroud ($5000), Kareem Hunt ($5000), Travis Kelce ($5000), Samaje Perine ($4300), Dameon Pierce ($4200), Hollywood Brown ($4200), Texans Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: DeAndre Hopkins ($4700)
Lottery Ticket: Dare Ogunbowale ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Overpriced for Expectation: Lions Defense ($3200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7200), Jayden Daniels ($7000), Jared Goff ($6300), Terry McLaurin ($6300), Jameson Williams ($6100), David Montgomery ($5700), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5300), Sam LaPorta ($4200), Commanders Defense ($2300)
Underpriced for Expectation: Austin Ekeler ($5100)
Lottery Ticket: Olamide Zaccheaus ($4300)
Must-Own: Jahmyr Gibbs ($7700)
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Overpriced for Expectation: Saquon Barkley ($8200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Puka Nacua ($7400), A.J. Brown ($7000), Kyren Williams ($6900), Jalen Hurts ($6800), DeVonta Smith ($5600), Matthew Stafford ($5200), Kenneth Gainwell ($4700), Ronnie Rivers ($4100), Eagles Defense ($3400),
Underpriced for Expectation: Cooper Kupp ($5400)
Lottery Ticket: Rams Defense ($2700)
Must-Own: None
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Overpriced for Expectation: Ravens Defense ($2900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derrick Henry ($8000), Lamar Jackson ($7800), James Cook ($6700), Zay Flowers ($5900), Khalil Shakir ($5000), Rashod Bateman ($4900), Justice Hill ($4800), Ty Johnson ($4500), Keon Coleman ($4100), Bills Defense ($3000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mark Andrews ($4500)
Lottery Ticket: Amari Cooper ($4400)
Must-Own: Josh Allen ($7700)