We continue to move deeper into the postseason and watch the elimination of teams. That naturally means that we will have a gradually lower set of games in the coming weeks. We are down to just four for this round’s article.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings. For the playoffs, we will be using the full round classic slate for pricing. For the playoffs, we will be using the full round classic slate for pricing.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: None
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7900), Nico Collins ($7100), C.J. Stroud ($6700), Gus Edwards ($5900), Devin Singletary ($5700), Justice Hill ($4800), Isaiah Likely ($4700), Dameon Pierce ($4600), Odell Beckham Jr. ($4600), Melvin Gordon III ($4300), Ravens Defense ($3500), Texans Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Zay Flowers ($6000), Dalton Schultz ($4400)
Lottery Ticket: Rashod Bateman ($4000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Isaiah Likely ($4700), Ravens Defense ($3500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7900), Nico Collins ($7100), Zay Flowers ($6000), Gus Edwards ($5900), Devin Singletary ($5700), Justice Hill ($4800), Dameon Pierce ($4600), Odell Beckham Jr. ($4600), Dalton Schultz ($4400), Melvin Gordon III ($4300), Texans Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: C.J. Stroud ($6700)
Lottery Ticket: Mark Andrews ($5000)
Must-Own: None
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($3400), Packers Defense ($2600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deebo Samuel ($7700), Aaron Jones ($6700), Brock Purdy ($6500), Jordan Love ($6200), Romeo Doubs ($5600), Elijah Mitchell ($5200), Jayden Reed ($5200), George Kittle ($5200), Dontayvion Wicks ($4900), Jordan Mason ($4400), AJ Dillon ($4400), Emanuel Wilson ($4200), Luke Musgrave ($3600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandon Aiyuk ($6900), Christian Watson ($4200)
Lottery Ticket: Kyle Juszczyk ($4000)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($8800)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: 49ers Defense ($3400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Deebo Samuel ($7700), Brandon Aiyuk ($6900), Aaron Jones ($6700), Brock Purdy ($6500), Jordan Love ($6200), Romeo Doubs ($5600), Elijah Mitchell ($5200), Jayden Reed ($5200), Dontayvion Wicks ($4900), Jordan Mason ($4400), AJ Dillon ($4400), Emanuel Wilson ($4200), Christian Watson ($4200), Packers Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($5200), Luke Musgrave ($3600)
Lottery Ticket: Bo Melton ($3300)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($8800)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8200)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7200), Rachaad White ($6500), Jared Goff ($6300), Chris Godwin ($6300), David Montgomery ($6100), Baker Mayfield ($6000), Sam LaPorta ($5900), Chase Edmonds ($4700), Lions Defense ($3300), Buccaneers Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jahmyr Gibbs ($6600)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8200), Baker Mayfield ($6000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Mike Evans ($7200), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6600), Rachaad White ($6500), Jared Goff ($6300), Chris Godwin ($6300), Sam LaPorta ($5900), Chase Edmonds ($4700), Lions Defense ($3300), Buccaneers Defense ($2500)
Underpriced for Expectation: David Montgomery ($6100), Josh Reynolds ($3700)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3600)
Must-Own: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: None
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8000), Stefon Diggs ($7000), Patrick Mahomes ($6800), Rashee Rice ($6800), James Cook ($6300), Travis Kelce ($6000), Gabe Davis ($5000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4500), Leonard Fournette ($4300), Ty Johnson ($4200), Latavius Murray ($4100), Khalil Shakir ($3800), Bills Defense ($2800), Chiefs Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Isiah Pacheco ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: Kadarius Toney ($3200)
Must-Own: Travis Kelce ($6000)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Stefon Diggs ($7000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($8000), Patrick Mahomes ($6800), Rashee Rice ($6800), James Cook ($6300), Travis Kelce ($6000), Gabe Davis ($5000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4500), Leonard Fournette ($4300), Ty Johnson ($4200), Latavius Murray ($4100), Khalil Shakir ($3800), Bills Defense ($2800), Chiefs Defense ($2700)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Kincaid ($4800)
Lottery Ticket: Kadarius Toney ($3200)
Must-Own: Isiah Pacheco ($6400)