The small number of games at our disposal will obviously lead to some strange values this weekend. There are definitely players who stand above the rest in terms of salary, but many others hover around the average. It’s a situation where you can almost play anyone you want as long as you dig for savings somewhere. We’ll see this more in the actual DFS Picks article where we bundle some players together for their similar values.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Conference Championships NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings. For the playoffs, we will be using the full round classic slate for pricing. For the playoffs, we will be using the full round classic slate for pricing.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rashee Rice ($6,500) and Gus Edwards ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Patrick Mahomes ($6,900), Travis Kelce ($6,600), Zay Flowers ($5,800), Justice Hill ($4,,800), Odell Beckham, Jr. ($4,400), Isaiah Likely ($4,300), Dalvin Cook ($4,200), Nelson Agholor ($3,800), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,400), Justin Watson ($3,300), Kadarius Toney ($3,200), and Ravens Defense ($3,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chiefs Defense ($2,900)
Lottery Ticket: Mark Andrews ($5,000) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,500) primarily if Pacheco is out or limited
Must-Own: Isiah Pacheco ($6,500) if healthy
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Lamar Jackson ($7700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Travis Kelce ($6600), Rashee Rice ($6500), Zay Flowers ($5800), Gus Edwards ($5500), Justice Hill ($4800), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4500), Odell Beckham, Jr. ($4400), Isaiah Likely ($4300), Dalvin Cook ($4200), Nelson Agholor ($3800), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3400), Justin Watson ($3300), Kadarius Toney ($3200), Ravens Defense ($3200), Chiefs Defense ($2900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patrick Mahomes ($6900)
Lottery Ticket: Mark Andrews ($5000)
Must-Own: Isiah Pacheco ($6500)
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: David Montgomery ($5,600), 49ers Defense ($3,300), and Lions Defense ($2,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900), Deebo Samuel ($7,300), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,400), Sam LaPorta ($5,400), George Kittle ($5,300), Jauan Jennings ($4,600), and Josh Reynolds ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Purdy ($6,400) and Jared Goff ($6,400)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3,700)
Must-Own: Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Brandon Aiyuk ($6900), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6400), David Montgomery ($5600), Sam LaPorta ($5400), George Kittle ($5300), Elijah Mitchell ($4600), Jauan Jennings ($4600), Josh Reynolds ($4000), 49ers Defense ($3300), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($3200), Lions Defense ($2600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brock Purdy ($6400), Jared Goff ($6400)
Lottery Ticket: Jameson Williams ($3700)
Must-Own: Christian McCaffrey ($9000) and Deebo Samuel ($7300)