The first week of every new season presents massive opportunity for perceptions to be misaligned, and we almost always see it in the salaries of players. The start of the postseason doesn’t present that same value — we did just watch 19 weeks of football — but there is the resetting period that can allow for some mismatched expectations. Simply put, it is a new season, just with more recent data to use as support.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Wild Card Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Mario is flying solo this week for basically the first time since Sporfolio launched. Luke will be back — and everything is positive — but he was unavailable for this column.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The first of three division games this weekend, isn’t everything about this matchup centered around San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy? The third-string option has slid into the starting role and has not lost a game with the team. The Seattle Seahawks have a pathetic defense, and Purdy has the weapons to take advantage. That should be a fairly common expectation for DFS players, but I am hard-pressed to ignore the Seahawks in the playoffs. They are the team with absolutely nothing to lose and plenty of experience against the 49ers. They even have the skill position players through which the offense funnels so that we can target them appropriately for our lineups. I’m not sure if this becomes an out-of-control slugfest or stays on the lower-scoring side, but I do know that I will be using some players from Seattle on my rosters.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I will be using someone from Seattle in most of my lineups
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There really isn’t much separating the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars and, even though Los Angeles enters the game with the better record, Jacksonville was a division champion and had previously destroyed the Chargers in a head-to-head meeting. The problem is that both teams have similar strengths, weaknesses, and potentially overlooked areas. For that reason, I expect DFS players to look for the ‘safer’ routes of someone like Chargers running back Austin Ekeler or either quarterback and, while I am completely fine with them, I’d want to be a little more bold with someone like Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones or even one of the defenses. The point is, basically everyone is in-play, but this game has one of the most wide-ranging set of outcomes.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Jesse Palmer, Gerald Everett, Travis Etienne, Jr., Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and both defenses
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Yikes. I’m never one to count out a team in the playoffs — especially in a division game — but the Miami Dolphins are in a nearly-impossible situation without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as they visit a Super Bowl hopeful in the Buffalo Bills. This has all the makings of a potential blowout with one exception: the Dolphins have two wide receivers who have turned games around via big plays. I am absolutely using either Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle in all of my lineups — and sometimes both in the same build. I know that it might appear difficult for them to thrive, but the Dolphins must feed them the ball and allow them to try to make something happen. That’s an ideal setup in DFS, even if it doesn’t lead to an actual victory. On the other side of the ball, there is no way to avoid the obvious targets from Buffalo, although prior to last year’s outrageous performance — nine touchdown passes and no interceptions in two games — quarterback Josh Allen had four playoff starts and a total of five passing touchdowns. There’s a chance that he is somewhat restrained on Sunday.
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, Bills defense, Skylar Thompson — if using both wide receivers from Miami — Raheem Mostert — if healthy — Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but Hill or Waddle will be in every one of my lineups
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For a non-division game, there is actually some recent history to which people are pointing in regards of expectations. Basically, because the New York Giants played a close game against the Minnesota Vikings in their meeting roughly a month ago, there is a narrative that suggests it can happen again. It definitely can and, with Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins playing outside of his preferred timeslot of the early afternoon game, we might be in a similar position to knock Cousins for his production. That’s exactly why I would like to lean on Cousins and his usual targets to try to get ahead of the field who may look to avoid him. For the Giants, it’s clearly running back Saquon Barkley leading the charge, but the team will probably need to throw in order to win, so I would be ready to target a wide receiver from New York.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Saquon Barkley, Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Daniel Bellinger, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, T.J. Hockenson, and Vikings defense
Fades: None, but I obviously wouldn’t go too heavy with Giants players
Must-Owns: If you can afford his salary, Justin Jefferson
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Quarterback Lamar Jackson has already been ruled out for the Baltimore Ravens, and it feels like the vultures are circling. The Cincinnati Bengals have been a popular team all year and, without Jackson keeping the Ravens’ offense alive, there will be a clear expectation of a huge win by Cincinnati. Expect the usual suspects to be quite popular and, while I obviously can justify targeting any of them, I personally will go in the opposite direction. If Baltimore wants to compete, it would almost certainly have to be in a low-scoring game. Considering how the Ravens have won games without Jackson, the team’s defense has reached the point where we can trust it to take over a matchup. There’s massive risk in missing out on what the Bengals’ offense can do, but I’m taking that chance.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Mark Andrews, and both defenses
Fades: Ja’Marr Chase
Must-Owns: J.K. Dobbins
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For a team that almost always has positive name recognition, everything about the Dallas Cowboys and their perception has been negative lately. It starts with quarterback Dak Prescott and his recent propensity to turn the ball over. I simply can’t expect that to continue for much longer, especially since his resume had been built around protecting the ball. On the other side of the matchup, we have the greatest quarterback of All-Time trying to fight every possible piece of gravity from the inconsistencies of the players around him to the struggles of the head coach. I’m never going to ignore the possibility of a big game from Tom Brady, but he is not one of my top overall plays of the six-game set.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Dallas’ defense, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: Buccaneers Running Backs
Must-Owns: Michael Gallup — mainly for his salary relief