It’s here! Week 1 is around the corner and, in addition to a full schedule of games, we specifically have a slate that is packed with storylines and outstanding narratives. That’s the focal point of this particular column, and we moved through the bulk of the games with relative ease because of it.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Falcons are being written off as easily as any team in the league this season, but I’m not jumping on that train early. The Falcons are coming off a 7-win season, and have added Drake London and Bryan Edwards to their severely depleted wide receiver group from last year. Add that to a second year in head coach Arthur Smith’s system, a year of growth for Kyle Pitts, and the far more mobile quarterback in Marcus Mariota, and I think this team has a chance to surprise. I think the surprise begins quickly as the Falcons give the Saints an early scare as the Saints begin life without Sean Payton.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Marcus Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Bryan Edwards
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Kyle Pitts
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m hesitant to ask the Atlanta Falcons’ offense to do anything after how pitiful it was last year, but the Falcons did manage to score at least 20 points in both outings against the New Orleans Saints. Why can’t that happen again? If it does — and the opportunity is certainly there — it would most likely take an effort from quarterback Marcus Mariota that far exceeds what many people are expecting. That gives him tremendous upside. For the Saints, I will always want to lean on running back Alvin Kamara until this coaching staff determines and proves that they don’t want to keep rolling with him, but I am also interested in wide receiver Michael Thomas. He has all the makings of a superstar returning from a lengthy injury, and I want to take my chances before his salary rises.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, Marcus Mariota, and Bryan Edwards
Fades: None, especially because of the general expectation that this game will be low-scoring
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For all of the things that the NFL does right, they also get gifted with some amazing storylines like the Browns deciding to trade their former first overall draft pick to the team that they are playing in Week 1. Interestingly enough, if the Browns had a quality quarterback, they probably beat the Panthers easily, but I have a hard time expecting much out of Jacoby Brissett when we have a large history of unspectacular play. It is possible the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can dominate the game enough to make that a non-issue, but I am not buying it. I am especially not buying when you have a highly motivated quarterback on the other side of the field with talented weapons all around him. It is a matter of time before the Panthers’ talent finally clicks and puts together a big season. A victory in Week 1 would go a long way to starting Baker Mayfield’s Panthers tenure on the right foot.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Baker Mayfield, DJ Moore, and Robbie Anderson
Fades: Jacoby Brissett
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious storyline is Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield playing against his former organization, the Cleveland Browns. If you believe in the element of revenge on the football field, then Mayfield is an easy play. Otherwise, both defenses take the spotlight — with the exception of superstar Christian McCaffrey. Based on the inconsistency of Carolina’s offense and their stout defense, this game sets up like a fantasy disappointment.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson, and both defenses
Fades: Jacoby Brissett
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I am always a believer that head coach Kyle Shannahan will get the most out of his offense, I am going to take a wait-and-see approach with them this year. I have never been a big Jimmy Garoppolo fan, but he was at least a known quantity that you could rely on for steady, albeit unexceptional, production and ball distribution. With Trey Lance running the offense, it is hard to know what to expect, and given all the hype around him in fantasy realms, I am going to sit back and see if the hype is warranted before buying in. I’m also not feeling the love for the Bears in the early stages of this season. Their offensive line is likely to be a major liability again, and Justin Fields was not able to overcome that last year. Overall, I see the 49ers winning this game fairly easily, but there is not much fantasy glory to chase here.
Targets: Eli Mitchel — assuming he is healthy — George Kittle, 49ers Defense, and Khalili Herbert
Fades: Justin Fields
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have seen this play out too many times to land on any singular expectation with confidence. The San Francisco 49ers thrive when they are able to run the football effectively and cycle through ball carriers. But, is there any guarantee that it will happen that way? The Chicago Bears are being easily overlooked, and there are some talented weapons that can be used. My longterm expectations remain low, but there is some value to be had.
Targets: Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Trey Lance, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bengals are likely to be a heavy favorite among football fans and bettors after their incredible second-half run last season. Between that run and the offseason improvements to their offensive line, it is hard to see them not having a good season again. With that being said, history does not paint a great picture for teams coming off a Super Bowl loss. What history does support is Mike Tomlin leading his team to a successful season as in his 15 years as the Head Coach of the Steelers, he has never had a losing record. Even with the uncertainty at quarterback, I can’t bet against the Steelers just yet, and I think they come out and shock the reigning AFC champs in a great early-season AFC North battle.
Targets: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins
Fades: Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am immediately lowering the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive ceiling by virtue of playing a divisional rival that is going overlooked by most of the football-watching world. Granted, the Pittsburgh Steelers are being discussed more about their potential weaknesses on offense as compared to their defense, but the team, as a whole, remains filled with potential. It’s unlikely — although it is possible — for Pittsburgh to steal the win on Sunday in a high-scoring game, so the path to an ‘upset’ likely runs through limiting Cincinnati’s offense. That’s what I’ll be doing with my linueps, while also throwing a few calculated darts in case the offense delivers.
Targets: Ja’Marr Chase, Mitch Trubisky, Najee Harris, and Diontae Johnson
Fades: Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon
Must-Owns:
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game may not seem like much at first glance, but these are two teams that the average football fan is rapidly falling in love with. Jalen Hurts is getting praised as potentially the QB1 in the fantasy football world this season, and while I don’t necessarily see that happening, his weekly upside is about as high as any quarterback, especially in positive matchups. The Lions’ defense is likely still in for a bit of a tough season after allowing the 4th most total yards and 2nd most points last season. With that said, their offense has the tools to put together a decent season if they remain healthy. It may not seem like it, but this game has big fantasy potential.
Targets: Just about all of the offensive regulars for both teams
Fades: Eagles running backs until we get some clarity on the division of touches
Must-Owns: None, but both Jalen Hurts and D’Andre Swift feel close to being must-owns
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of these two teams is going to make a statement on Sunday. Either the Detroit Lions are going to show that they really are building something and moving in the right direction or the Philadelphia Eagles are going to prove that they immediately belong in the playoff discussion. The interesting twist is that both teams’ success comes from the offensive line, which makes almost any outcome possible. I doubt we will see a back-and-forth battle, but it’s certainly possible that one team has enough offensive output that a stack would be worthwhile.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but it is probably wise to use someone from this game
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For years I feel like we have been arguing that the Colts are essentially the best football team in the league and all they are missing is the quarterback to put them over the top. Clearly they agree that has been the missing piece as they are onto their third starting quarterback in the last three years. Matt Ryan may or may not have enough left in the tank to put them into Super Bowl contention, but he isn’t likely to be any worse than Carson Wentz was last season which still sets them up to be a highly competitive team. The Texans competed admirably last season with Davis Mills under center, but they do not match up well with this Colts team as evidenced by the 31-3 and 31-0 games last year. This game may not be quite as one-sided, but it should be a comfortable victory for the Colts.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman Jr., Dameon Pierce, and Rex Burkhead
Fades: Davis Mills
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The divisional matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans immediately brings forth two separate comments. The first is that Colts running back Jonathan Taylor cannot possibly repeat what he did last year, but what if he does? The second is that Texans quarterback Davis Mills was not a complete tranwreck like we expected, but what if he is? Those two players are the keys for their respective squads, where the game — and fantasy implications — swing wildly on their performances. I am convinced that Houston is not nearly as much of a pushover as people think, so I will be leaning on Mills to help his offense move the ball — even if Taylor is also the answer for the Colts.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jr., Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce, Rex Burkhead, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I see a pretty clear path to both of these teams being playoff-caliber squads this season, but I am finding it hard to jump on the bandwagon for either team’s fantasy outlook. For starters, both teams are likely to be run-first offenses, and that notoriously leads to less fantasy goodness as a whole. On top of that, neither of these young quarterbacks has displayed the sort of dynamic playmaking ability that is required to have an elite offense in this league. Considering both teams boast strong defenses as well, this game does not scream “high-scoring” to me in any way. Both teams have good offensive players, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see some production, but as a whole, this game isn’t likely to overwhelm.
Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, DeVante Parker, and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, and Chase Edmonds — I have always loved Edmonds but the Miami backfield is crowded and I want to see how they choose to utilize Edmonds first
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep going back to the unknown in this divisional game between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. There are so many moving parts where any one in the right direction could produce the best fantasy score of the weekend. Think about it. The Dolphins have a new head coach who is known for being dynamic — and they brought in wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The Patriots are also overlooked in terms of big plays, but do we really think head coach Bill Belichick can’t figure out a way to score against a Dolphins defense that ranked right in the middle of the pack last year? I won’t stack this game in its entirety, but I do want some exposure to it.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris, DeVante Parker, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Dolphins running backs
Must-Owns: None, but I will almost certainly have someone from this game in most of my lineups
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jets seemingly had a positive offseason and should be a better team this year. With that said, I won’t be sold on that until I see it, and I am all in on a big rebound from the Ravens this year after their injury-plagued season last year. There won’t be many games in Week 1 of any season that I feel great about predicting a blowout, but this is one of those times. Playing from behind should put the Jets’ passing game in a position where volume may create opportunities, but there are too many guys on the same level for anyone to standout as worthy of a dart throw this week.
Targets: J.K. Dobbins, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Ravens Defense
Fades: Jets Offense
Must-Owns: Lamar Jackson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Between the offseason drama about his contract and the matchup against a New York Jets team that will be starting Joe Flacco under center, quarterback Lamar Jackson stands to potentially be the highest-scoring fantasy player of the weekend. Think back to the last time he was in a position of being doubted on Opening Day. He delivered five passing touchdowns in an absolute obliteration of an AFC East team. Perhaps he doesn’t score that much on Sunday, but he is in a position to thrive. The Jets will almost certainly need to throw the ball, so that gives some of their pass-catchers a boost.
Targets: Everyone on the Ravens — including Baltimore’s defense — Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Garrett Wilson
Fades: Joe Flacco and Jets running backs
Must-Owns: Lamar Jackson
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Maybe I am crazy, but I am fully buying low on the Jaguars this year. This is a quarterback league, and while Trevor Lawrence clearly struggled last year, he was one of the top prospects in recent memory for a reason. Instead of the complete disarray that was the Jaguars organization last year, Lawrence now gets to play for Doug Pederson who got enough out of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles to win a Super Bowl in his time with the Eagles. I am not expecting that type of success this year, but I think they will significantly improve on last season’s mess, and it all starts with a Week 1 victory over a very vulnerable Commanders team.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Evan Engram, and J.D. McKissic
Fades: Carson Wentz
Must-Owns: Christian Kirk
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to show any improvement in 2022 under a new head coach, it will almost certainly have to start with the quarterback position. Trevor Lawrence was drafted as one of the highest-touted prospects in years, and he failed to live up to the hype in his rookie season. In his defense, the team around him was rapidly crumbling. Here’s his chance to prove that his pedigree was well-deserved. I’m buying in on an uptick across the board from Jacksonville’s offense, even if it isn’t one of the top squads of the day. I also find no redeeming value in the Washington Commanders and their new addition of quarterback Carson Wentz, but it could lead to the running backs remaining active as receivers — as we saw plenty of times last year. If Washington’s offense fails, however, then the Jaguars’ defense slides in as a nice play.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Jr., James Robinson — if he plays — Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Jacksonville’s defense, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Carson Wentz
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is easy to forget that the Titans managed to win 12 games last season and finished first in the AFC while playing roughly half the season without Derrick Henry. The Titans have seemingly been so solid for so many years all without ever managing to make a really deep playoff run. You have to wonder if all of that wear and tear on their organization and players is going to start to impact them or if they are going to continue to quietly be one of the top teams in the NFL. It may seem like they have an easy start to the season, but it is important to recognize the talent level that the Giants do possess on offense. If Brian Daboll can work any magic on Daniel Jones as he did on Josh Allen then the Giants may finally start to turn the tide. I see this game turning out to be closer than many people may expect, and I also see this sneakily being one of the higher-scoring games of the opening week.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarious Toney, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks, and Austin Hooper
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I will be targeting this game heavily
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been burned by buying into the New York Giants’ offense in the past, but I am doing it once more with head coach Brian Daboll at the helm. Maybe I am putting too much stock in his ability to develop quarterback Daniel Jones as he did with Josh Allen of the Bills, but it would surprise me to have the Giants start the year with absolutely no presence on offense. Therefore, I am using players from New York in my lineup. The same will be true of offensive weapons from the Tennessee Titans, as they continue to churn out winning seasons. Running back Derrick Henry is the obvious key, but we finally saw the overwhelming volume start to catch up with him via an injury last year. It is possible that the team starts to limit his touches so, while I will use him somewhere, I will be careful to not be too overextended.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Derrick Henry, Treylone Burks, and Austin Hooper
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I will be using someone from this game in most lineups
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of my most confident opinions for this football season is that all of the negativity around the Chiefs following their loss of Tyreek Hill is completely overblown and the Chiefs’ offense will still be one of the very best in the league. They still have arguably the best offensive coaching staff in the league, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, the best tight end in the game, and four running backs and four wide receivers that bring a variety of abilities to the offense. Patrick Mahomes is going to be in for another great season, and it will start with a huge game in Arizona in Week 1. Even in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, I fully expect that Cardinals offense to be able to hold its own, especially in matchups with weak defenses. This game has all the tools to create some early-season fireworks.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green
Fades: Until we get some clarity on the division of touches in the Chiefs backfield, I will be avoiding that group.
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s just too easy to look at the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals and expect an all-out explosion of points. I simply can’t expect it to unfold that way, and it’s not just to be ‘contrarian’ — although that is clearly the ‘contrarian’ take. The reality is that possessions take time to develop, and we are looking at two teams starting the year and diving into game action. It’s completely plausible that each takes its time and then finds footing. Either way, the obvious targets are in-play, where Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is probably the ‘must-play.’ Quarterback Patrick Mahomes certainly won’t lock on him for 100 percent of his targets, but Kelce is such a force at finding the end zone that he is probably the ‘go-to’ player when Kansas City is close enough to strike.
Targets: Everyone
Fades: None, but I agree with Luke’s point that the Chiefs’ running backs are scary right now
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After the dramatic regular-season finale between these two teams, this game feels primed to offer some early-season drama. With that said, even with the addition of Davante Adams, my expectations are down for the Raiders this year. Last season was filled with all sorts of drama for the Raiders, and it always felt like the craziness helped bring the team together and play better than anyone really believed they could. With the uncertainty of how Josh McDaniels handles a head coaching position this time around, their weak offensive play, and a defense that is likely to struggle again, I don’t see the Raiders finding themselves in the playoffs again this year. On the other side, the Chargers should be even better offensively thanks to the further growth of Justin Herbert in the second year under head coach Brandon Staley. The Chargers’ defense is also one of the scariest units on paper, so they could wind up being dominant on both sides of the ball this year. I think the Chargers come out and make a statement in Week 1 to avenge their Week 18 defeat last season.
Targets: Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett
Fades: Raiders running backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is obviously plenty of unknown surrounding the Las Vegas Raiders and their new head coach, but there is one clear takeaway from this past offseason: the Raiders have wide receiver Davante Adams, and they are going to use him. The only caveat is that the Los Angeles Chargers might quietly have one of the best defenses in the league. After the Raiders kept the Chargers out of the playoffs last year, I would expect the absolute best out of Los Angeles on Sunday, where they might be one of the top stacks of the weekend.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Davante Adams, and Darren Waller
Fades: Derek Carr and Raiders running backs
Must-Owns: None, but I will have plenty of exposure to Los Angeles’ offense
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Once again we are opening a football season after a seemingly dramatic offseason for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Week 1 last year did not go well for them, but I have a very different feeling this season. Rodgers and the Packers have been questioned all offseason for how they will survive without Davante Adams, can Rodgers still lead them to a winning season, and I think people are forgetting that we are talking about possibly the most spiteful and petty individuals in all of professional sports. After constant questions and reminders of last season’s Week 1 embarrassment, I am fully expecting the league’s back-to-back MVP to come out and dominate in Week 1. The Vikings still possess some elite offensive talent, but I don’t think it’s enough this week.
Targets: Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen
Fades: Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: Aaron Rodgers
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I feel like we will always exercise caution when assessing Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at the start of any season. He always ends up with ridiculous numbers, but we have seen mighty struggles in prior Opening Days. But, doesn’t that mean he can figure it out and adjust? That level of unknown is what makes it risky to either play or avoid him and his offense. The home run play is obviously to target one or two of his pass-catchers, but accepting risk is a necessity. Conversely, the Minnesota Vikings are the cautious, steady play. The usual suspects are the main targets.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After all of the offseason craziness, it is seeming like people are finally ready to lower expectations on Tom Brady. While I definitely understand the conventional thinking, Tom Brady is anything but conventional. I am not going to say he’s done until he actually shows that he can’t compete on the field any longer. There is no quarterback in the league that knows football better, and there is probably no scarier collection of wide receivers in the league than the 4 guys playing with Brady this year. I will also not be scared of a Cowboys defense that wasn’t nearly as good as people hyped them up to be last year. They were average at best in pretty much every statistic, but they were bailed out heavily thanks to an incredible amount of turnovers. I can’t expect that trend to continue, so I expect their defense to take some lumps this year. Even with Amari Cooper gone, this Cowboys offense should still have plenty of firepower, and that could set us up for a great back-and-forth game in Week 1 Sunday Night Football
Targets: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Cameron Brate, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, and Dalton Schultz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: CeeDee Lamb
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have come around to love the Sunday Night Football matchup as a true battle between two solid offenses, regardless of my longterm outlook for either team. The Dallas Cowboys were able to break through against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense last year on Opening Day, so why can’t they do it again? The bigger issue is in trying to determine how it happens. CeeDee Lamb is now the top wide receiver, but the dual-back setup between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard is getting plenty of attention and casting doubt on the best approach. It still appears to be Elliott’s job, and it might even be ‘contrarian’ to dive in with Elliott fully. Tampa Bay is scattered in the passing attack, but that is always the case with Tom Brady under center. Taking a stand with one of his pass-catchers is, again, the ‘contrarian’ approach.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, and Cameron Brate
Fades: Tony Pollard — unless you are using multiple lineups, in which he must also be included in the player pool
Must-Owns: CeeDee Lamb
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In perfect fashion for the NFL, we are gifted with the opportunity to spend Monday night of Week 1 watching Russell Wilson play his first game since being traded from the Seahawks against his former team in Seattle. You couldn’t script a better story to end the week on, and there are only two possible scenarios for how this game plays out. Wilson and his far superior Broncos team come into Seattle and absolutely dominate from start to finish, or the situation gets the best of Wilson, and Denver loses in a low-scoring, sloppy football game. I could see either happening, but I have always been a Russell Wilson truther, and I am not going to jump ship in this game with one of the best overall lineups he has ever had supporting him. That belief only grows when I consider the fact he will lining up opposite Geno Smith, and we have seen enough of Smith to know he is not even the same world of abilities, so I am all in on the Broncos to close out Week 1 with a bang.
Targets: Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Albert Okwuegbunam, Rashaad Penny and DK Metcalf
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Russell Wilson is going back to Seattle to play against his former franchise. That’s it. That’s the storyline. It’s the only storyline. But of course, what does that mean for us? The easy assumption is that he will single-handedly demolish the Seahawks’ defense and, while I would love to see it happen for my true fandom of the quarterback — and the fun narrative — I wouldn’t be so quick to land on that outcome. Seattle will be playing at home on Primetime and has some talented defenders that can get in the way. Wilson will be a fine play, of course, but the ‘contrarian’ target in a two-game Primetime slate is the Seahawks’ defense. DK Metcalf also slides in as the playmaker who can help keep the game close for Seattle’s offense, even with the much-maligned Geno Smith under center.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Walker IV — if he plays — Tyler Lockett, Seattle’s defense, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy, and Albert Okwuegbunam
Fades: Denver’s running backs
Must-Owns: DK Metcalf