Each week of the playoffs will present a smaller field of teams, but we have a great trend in front of us for the Divisional Round. That is, most of the remaining squads have either an offensive-minded head coach or a powerful enough offense where we can see some fireworks. That always makes the task of selecting players a little easier, but it also means that the competition for fantasy points will be more intense.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite this being a year where I have been touting the Jaguars since Week 1, even I had largely lost faith last week when they found themselves down 27 points in the first half. What happened from that point won’t soon be forgotten and is just another feather in the cap of the red-hot Trevor Lawrence-Doug Pederson duo. While last week was remarkable, there is a massive difference between facing the Chargers this time of year versus playing Patrick Mahomes. I can’t suddenly abandon my faith in this Jaguars offense to do their part in keeping this game competitive, but anything that they are able to accomplish, I can’t help but expect the Chiefs offense to one-up them throughout this game. Both of these defenses have improved throughout the year, but they will likely be overmatched in what figures to be a strong offensive showing by both teams.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, Jerrick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Travis Etienne, Jr. and Isiah Pacheco as I expect both offenses to lean primarily on their quarterbacks in this one.
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Let’s start with the Jacksonville Jaguars. If there were any argument to be made in their favor before last week’s playoff victory, it would have been that the team has refused to fall out of a game and give up. Over the course of the year, they had consistently competed through the end, even in matchups that didn’t go in their direction. With Jacksonville trailing by 27 points, anyone who had watched the team knew that they weren’t going to lose easily. I lead with this because the Jaguars have developed into a solid fantasy football option. By virtue of playing against teams that put the pressure on via offense, Jacksonville’s fantasy value rises to match its opponent. That’s where the Kansas City Chiefs come into play. I won’t just expect a high-scoring contest because of what I wrote, but I will note that there are paths to many different players performing well. I will be using this game as the source of many targets.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Travis Etienne, Jr., Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Jerick McKinnon
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a critical year for his future, Daniel Jones continues to prove his haters wrong — well sort of, at least. The Giants offense has been steady but unspectacular for most of the season, but you can hardly fault Jones for their capped ceiling with the wild rotation and unreliability of the pass catchers on this offense. Jones and Saquon Barkley largely carried the load on offense with effective running, but Jones as his recently surging group of wide receivers showed they can be effective last week as they torched the Vikings defense all game long. The issue for the Giants is that they are going from one of the worst defenses in the league to facing an Eagles defense that allowed the fewest pass yards per game in the NFL this year. The first matchup between these teams seems to favor a strong advantage for the Eagles, but the past month has seen the Eagles struggle a bit, and there is some cause for concern given some of their injuries and recent play. Despite that, the Eagles probably find a way to win this game, but I refuse to believe that this Giants team that is playing with house money is going to go down without a fight this week. I expect the defense to step up and keep this game close while the Giants lean heavily on the run game to slow down the game as much as possible.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith
Fades: Giants Wide Receivers
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saturday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants has captured my attention to an extreme level. For starters, we have the divisional familiarity that could lead to an ‘upset.’ But, we also have the top seed in the conference that had routinely cruised to victory and even destroyed the Giants in a relatively important game in early-December. On top of that, we even have some powerful perceptions to consider. There is one, in particular, that matters most for DFS purposes. The Eagles ended the year with a 14-3 record and the third-most points in the league. That has easily — and lazily — translated to the expectation that the team wins and thrives on offense. Really, the Eagles are extraordinarily consistent. They scored at least 20 points 15 times. But, they aren’t regularly explosive. Philadelphia only scored 40 points or more twice, and reached 30 points six times. Compared to the rest of the league, this is solid, but “solid” isn’t the reputation that the Eagles are carrying into Saturday’s game. There is a general expectation of high-powered offense, and I would simply lower the ceiling before getting to aggressive with Philadelphia’s players. Conversely, while the Giants also have a low ceiling, they have forced their floor a little higher lately. I also won’t go overboard with players from New York, but there is a route to the Giants’ players providing more relative value because of their salary savings.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Isiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and both defenses
Fades: None, but I would be careful before using too many players from Philadelphia
Must-Owns: None, but Saquon Barkley should be in any lineup that can afford his salary
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Of all of the matchups this week, this game easily has the most drama and storylines happening. Both teams narrowly made it out of the Wild Card round despite playing against backup — or even third string — quarterbacks. Both teams are dealing with a few key injuries that have vast impacts on these teams including a brutalized offensive line for the Bengals and multiple key injuries to the Bills defense. On top of all of that, we have the Week 17 canceled game between these two teams due to the Damar Hamlin tragic injury. With all of that information it is hard to know exactly what to expect from each of these teams, and there is almost no outcome that feels impossible. The one thing that stands out to me above all else is that with both these teams being on substantial win streaks, and rolling out elite quarterbacks, I don’t see how this game isn’t a nail biter in the end. With that being my expectation, I have to simply lean into what I think both teams do best and trust the most. The Bengals are going to lean on their quick passing game behind a battered offensive line, and the Bills are going to put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands and expect him to take care of business.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis
Fades: Joe Mixon, Devin Singletary, and James Cook
Must-Owns: Josh Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I wrote in my picks article, the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will capture everyone’s attention. After the prior meeting was cut short in the first quarter, there is a sense of this game being ‘unsettled’ as of now. If we add in the fact that ten point were scored before we even reached the second quarter, we can see a clear path to points. Personally, I think there are a little too many narratives that lead to an ‘obvious’ high-scoring game and, while the stars in this matchup are as good as it gets, I want to be a little careful before ‘stacking’ this game as a whole. There’s even a chance that one of the defenses turns into the better play — compared to the entire slate and the pricing, anyway — so I may take a chance there with one of my lineups in a tournament.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Samaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and both defenses
Fades: Joe Mixon, Devin Singletary, and James Cook
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Wild Card round saw both of these teams make statement victories, but both of those wins came against objectively inferior teams. Now, they face off against one another in an NFC heavyweight battle with two of the toughest defenses in the league as well as two of the highest scoring offenses in football. Both of these teams are strong from top to bottom, but there is one thing about this matchup that stands out to me as a potential weakness is Brock Purdy. I know you may read that and think I am crazy as the rookie has been nothing but great since he stepped in, but the context of his strong play is important. Since Purdy stepped in, the teams the 49ers have faced are as follows: Dolphins, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Commanders, Raiders, Cardinals, and Seahawks again. The best records of any of those opponents was 9-8 for the Seahawks and Dolphins, and both of those defenses were poor at best. In those seven games, Purdy put up impressive numbers, but he was buoyed by his defense setting the tone and playing against inferior opponents. If the Cowboys offense takes a lead, and their defense can get pressure on Purdy, it would not be surprising to see Mr. Irrelevant struggle. I am willing to bet that Kyle Shanhan does a good job of not asking too much of Purdy in this matchup, but it may be hard to win this game if he is not able to maintain a high level of play against a strong Cowboys defense.
Targets: Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Cowboys Defense, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle
Fades: Brock Purdy
Must-Owns: Dak Prescott
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I continue to write that the San Francisco 49ers — and, specifically, rookie quarterback Brock Purdy will regress. I keep being proven wrong. Is this the week that it changes? The Dallas Cowboys certainly have the defense for said change, and I am expecting one of their better performances on Sunday. The irony is that San Francisco’s defense is clearly the one that strikes fear in the hearts of opponents, as it was flat-out impenetrable during the regular season. The Cowboys do have weapons, though, and the only criticism on quarterback Dak Prescott is his sudden problem with protecting the football. In terms of DFS, I don’t care if Prescott continues to throw interceptions as long as he continues to complete passes to offset them. I’m not shying away from Dallas’ players.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, Cowboys defense, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
Fades: Brock Purdy
Must-Owns: None