Whenever we work through the games of a given weekend, we consider if any could surprise in either direction. When there are only two matchups, part of the battle involves determining if there can be a sneaky disconnect between the obvious expectation and what might unfold to give us an advantage.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Conference Championship NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote last week about my concerns around Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense now that they finally had to face off against a good defense, and while they still won the game, the offense had by far their worst game under Purdy. The 49ers managed just 19 points and were aided by multiple turnovers from Dak Prescott. I am having similar concerns this week considering the Eagles defense has been the best in the league against the pass, but I am still leaning towards the 49ers upsetting the Eagles this week. The 49ers offense has their lowest rushing total since Week 12 last week, but with that being the weakness of the Eagles defense, I fully expect Kyle Shanahan to attack that all game long. Being able to run the ball will limit the pressure on Purdy and also allow them to keep Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense off the field as much as possible. Allowing this 49ers defense to rest between drives should allow them to slow down this Eagles offense just enough to come out on top. Both offenses should be somewhat effective even in this tough matchup, but I think the 49ers run game is going to slow this game down enough to make this the less exciting fantasy game of Championship Weekend in my mind.
Targets: Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith
Fades: Brock Purdy
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I generally love when a team has an explosive performance in one game and then transitions to a completely different opponent the following week. Such is the case for the Philadelphia Eagles. They thoroughly dismantled the Giants last week, but the San Francisco 49ers are a much more formidable opponent, especially on defense. Injuries to the Eagles’ offensive line coupled with the 49ers’ pass rush could lead to below-average day from Philadelphia, but quarterback Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability raises his floor so high that it’s hard to completely fade him. The bigger ‘contrarian’ approach would be to go ‘all-in’ with 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, but the most likely outcome is that San Francisco runs the ball relentlessly as has done with great success in the past. Because of that, there’s a chance that more run plays — from both teams — and fewer incompletions lead to a faster pace-of-play and, thus, a lower overall score. I’m sure that between the two Conference Championship games, the later one will get the attention in terms of scoring, but that’s also a function of the run-heavy attack in the afternoon.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith
Fades: Eagles defense
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Heading into the AFC Championship rematch from last season, there are many storylines to discuss, and seemingly all of them point towards the Bengals being the obvious favorite in this game. Joe Burrow has had the Chiefs number in his young career going 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bengals are also riding a win streak that dates all the way back to Week 9 of the regular season. Add the Mahomes ankle injury to the mix, and the average football fan is easily looking at the Bengals as the AFC champions once again. Despite all of that, the Chiefs are actually still slight betting favorites which I find to be extremely interesting. I believe the Chiefs win this game as a reminder that they are still the cream of the crop, but at the end of the day, the fantasy scoring is all that matters here, and I have no problem leaning heavily into this game. During the Bengals current win streak, they have scored at least 20 points in every single game and the Chiefs boast the highest scoring offense in the league having scored 20 or more points in all but one game this whole season. This game feels like it has to be a near replica of their previous three matchups where both offenses play well and score somewhere between 24 and 30 points lead by both star quarterbacks.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Samaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst, Patrick Mahomes, Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Joe Mixon
Must-Owns: Jerrick McKinnon
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels like everything hinges on the healthy of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, so we need to prepare for all outcomes. The most obvious expectation is that Mahomes will hand the ball off more than he usually does or he will rely on his trustworthy superstar tight end Travis Kelce. For those reasons, I want to target the other wide receivers from the Chiefs, as they should be less popular. In the event that Mahomes is more healthy than we realize or if his otherworldly talent carries him to the point that his ankle isn’t a hindrance, the entire receiving corps should benefit. On the other side of the matchup, it’s the Cincinnati Bengals and their cast of high-profile skill position players surrounding quarterback Joe Burrow. They are all in-play, even though it’s unlikely for each one to deliver — unless the game turns into a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle. Because of what I wrote to close out the blurb for the NFC Championship Game, I might lower the expectations for scoring on the AFC side, but largely to be ‘contrarian’ and find an edge.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Travis Kelce
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None