Over the last few weeks, we have noticed ourselves trending away from many offenses as the potential ceiling appeared to be lower. That is not the case for the first round of the playoffs, as we have plenty of opportunities to find points — both on the field and for our DFS lineups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Wild Card Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been critical of the Raiders of late, but they have absolutely earned the right to be here. No team has gone through the amount of drama and turmoil that the Raiders have this season, and here they are in the playoffs where it feels like everyone has a chance. The downside for them is they have to face a Bengals team that has been a scoring machine all season long. The Bengals have managed to score 20 or more points in all but three games — one of which came last week without Joe Burrow — and scored a season-low of 15 points. That is a very impressive floor, but they haven’t just been average as they also have 7 games on the season of 30 or more points. I don’t see how the Raiders and their 26th ranked scoring defense are going to slow down Burrow and the various weapons that the Bengals possess. The big question here for me is how will the Raiders offense respond? We have seen them be everything from terrible to amazing this year, so there is no outcome that I would rule out. Despite the uncertainty, I don’t see how I can bet against them competing when they enter the playoffs with more momentum than any team in the league. This feels like possibly the highest-scoring game of Wild Card Weekend.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Zay Jones, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Darren Waller
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All I have written over the past few weeks is that the Cincinnati Bengals continue to score at least 22 points regularly, and there is no reason to expect that trend to break on Saturday afternoon. Indeed, the Las Vegas Raiders are better against the pass than run, but they basically never turn teams over, and there is no reason to avoid quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. I will make the same claim from the opposite side of the matchup, though, as the Raiders will return to action after playing one of the most entertaining games in recent memory. More important than “entertainment,” though, is the offense’s ability to rise to the occasion behind quarterback Derek Carr. I’m clearly expecting points in this game, and it has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring of the weekend.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, and Zay Jones
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Darren Waller
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Somehow, someway, the NFL always seems to stumble into absolutely perfect situations, and this matchup is exactly that. These division rivals faced off twice in the last six weeks of the regular season with each team taking one game. While I am not willing to say this trend has any value for this matchup, it is worth noting that the road team won both regular-season matchups. It is also worth noting that this game is expected to be played at roughly zero degrees Fahrenheit with a fair amount of wind. That weather forecast has to help a Patriots team that is built to run the ball and play good defense. If the weather is going to be a big factor, I think we see this game play out very similar to the first matchup of these teams where New England runs the ball endlessly and does just enough to come out on top. Either way, I won’t be investing heavily in a game between the number one and number two scoring defenses in the league in brutally cold weather.
Targets: Damien Harris — if active — Rahmondre Stevenson, Patriots Defense, Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and Stefon Diggs
Fades: Mac Jones
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The first storyline that needs to be addressed for Saturday night’s game between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots is the weather. It’s going to be bitter cold with temperatures positively going negative. That’s going to remind DFS players of the earlier meeting between these two, where New England refused to throw the ball and still won the game. I doubt it happens exactly like that again, so I am carefully targeting both quarterbacks and the top pass-catchers. I am not prioritizing them over the Patriots’ running backs, though and, in a multi-game contest, a defense from this matchup is probably the right play.
Targets: Both quarterbacks — if playing a one-game Showdown contest — or both defenses — if playing a multi-game contest, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Dawson Knox
Fades: Patriots Wide Receivers
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game sets up as by far the biggest lopsided matchup in the NFC, but does that actually matter? The Buccaneers have been dealt blow after blow in the late stages of this season and are set to defend their Super Bowl title without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown while they are likely without Ronald Jones this week and Leonard Fournette may or may not return from a stint on the IR due to a hamstring injury. To make matters worse for the Buccaneers, there is currently rain in the forecast which is going to make things tougher on their extremely pass-heavy offense. The Eagles, on the other hand, focus far more on the run, and while the Buccaneers aren’t an easy team to run on, Jalen Hurts involvement in the run makes them much harder to stop. The Eagles are not a great matchup for the Buccaneers, and that is pretty clear by the 6-point game these teams played back in Week 6. Since then, it is fair to say the Eagles have gotten better while the Buccaneers have lost key players to their offense. I can’t see Tom Brady losing to Jalen Hurts in a playoff game, but I don’t think this game is the blowout that many people are counting on.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski
Fades: Eagles running backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to argue against the defending Super Bowl Champions playing at home against a Philadelphia Eagles team that has been underwhelming all season, but I’m not going to dismiss the potential of the Eagles’ offense. The bigger problem is not that it has a difficult matchup, but that it disperses its production throughout the roster. But it all funnels through quarterback Jalen Hurts, and he is one of my main targets for the weekend. Not surprisingly, everyone from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is in-play, as I won’t expect Tampa Bay to open its title defense with a low-scoring effort.
Targets: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert
Fades: Eagles running backs
Must-Owns: Jalen Hurts
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The AFC playoff race wound up being as exciting as any finish we have seen in a long time, but we should not let that take away from what the 49ers accomplished last week. In a must-win game, they came back from 17-0 against a Rams team that was 43-0 when leading at halftime under Sean McVay and won thanks to a final drive touchdown to send the game to overtime where they eventually won on a field goal. I am always quick to be critical of Jimmy Garoppolo, but he was impressive in that must-win game. Unfortunately, I think time is running out on the 49ers season, and with that, possibly Garoppolo’s time in San Francisco as well. The Cowboys have the number one offense in the NFL in both yards and points, and if they take a lead, I simply cannot count on Garoppolo to manufacture another comeback like he did last week. The 49ers simply are not built to win games like that, so unless they can dominate the whole game on the ground, I don’t think we see another miracle from them again.
Targets: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: Dak Prescott
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Since we don’t write a “3 Games to Target” column in the playoffs — there are only six games to consider! — I’ll write it here: the matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys is primed to be the highest-scoring of the weekend. I’m ‘all-in.’ The Cowboys thrive at home offensively, but I will remind everyone, yet again, that the defense still bleeds yards. The 49ers will find some success when they have the ball, and I’m willing to lean on anyone from either team as long as the salary allows.
Targets: Everyone on offense
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Dak Prescott
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Part of me is thrilled that the Steelers snuck into the playoffs because it verifies my endless ranting about how the Steelers simply never go away. With that said, another part of me is very sad they made the playoffs because they have been legitimately bad for the majority of this season. The Steelers rank 20th or worse in total yards and points on offense and on defense. That paints a clear picture of their struggles this season, and now they have to travel to Kansas City to face off with a Chiefs team that is far superior and just beat them 36-10 back in Week 16. I know it’s the playoffs and things are different than the regular season, but give me the team that has made it to back-to-back Super Bowls and has been very good for most of this season over the team that barely snuck into the playoffs and has struggled in every way possible this year. It may feel too easy, but I am going down with leaning on a huge Chiefs victory in this one.
Targets: Diontae Johnson, Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, Travis Kelce and Chiefs Defense
Fades: Ben Roethlisberger
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are clearly two paths to how Sunday night’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs unfolds. The first is a direct repeat of an earlier matchup between the two, where Pittsburgh was buried immediately and the Chiefs dominated from start-to-finish. The other is a moderately competitive battle, where the Steelers somehow scrape together enough offense to make a late push. I’m personally leaning in that direction with Pittsburgh constantly managing to outperform its numbers. I won’t go overboard with the Steelers’ offense, but I do see value there.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Darrel Williams — if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out — Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, Travis Kelce, Chiefs defense, Ben Roethlisberger, Najee Harris — if active — Pat Freiermuth
Fades: None, but I would obviously be careful before using too many offensive players from Pittsburgh
Must-Owns: Diontae Johnson
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game took me some time to fully make a commitment on, but I have convinced myself that we see a comfortable Rams victory in the bright lights of Monday night as the final game of Wild Card Weekend. For a long stretch of this season, the Cardinals were playing like the best team in football. Since their Week 12 bye, things have been far less impressive. They finished the season on a 2-4 skid after that point, and have clearly missed DeAndre Hopkins. The Rams have been far from perfect, but I still think they have the best roster in the league, and as they get deeper into the year, their new faces get more and more comfortable in the system and seem to keep getting better. It is officially time for Matthew Stafford to shake the narrative of not being able to perform in the big moment and prove he was worth everything the Rams gave up to get him and more. I think this is the week we see the Rams team we have been waiting for which could set them up for a run all the way to the Super Bowl.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds — if active — Christian Kirk, Zach Ertz, Matthew Stafford, Sony Michel — for at least one more week as we see how Cam Akers gets more involved — Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson Jr.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing the same thing in basically every article. I am not going to sell quarterback Matthew Stafford as he makes his playoff debut with the Los Angeles Rams. I know about his history, but I also know that he has one of the best wide receivers and head coaches in the sport on his side. I’m using Stafford wherever I can, and it’s nearly impossible to look anywhere else besides wide receiver Cooper Kupp. The bulk of Los Angeles’ offense is in-play but, of course, the same is true for the Arizona Cardinals. Their ceiling had been slightly lower over the last month or so, but Arizona had one of the best records in the league for awhile simply because its offense was clicking. It is a different team without wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but I’m not going to forget how high-powered the Cardinals could be at a moment’s notice.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Sony Michel, Odell Beckham, Jr., Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, whichever Cardinals running back is active, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, Antoine Wesley, and Zach Ertz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp