While there are certainly enough games to find viable fantasy options in bulk, the purpose of this article is to highlight the storylines and notes and, ultimately, look for some advantages. Storylines are in abundance in Week 9, but the shame is that they don’t necessarily lead to some of the better plays. Thankfully, the larger slate will help us in that area, where we don’t need to only land on a few. The irony? The two of us — who rarely disagree — fall on opposite sides of the argument in a few spots.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bengals put together what can only be described as a massively disappointing game last week against the New York Jets. There was likely a bit of overlooking their opponent, but that does not excuse allowing 34 points to the Jets after having allowed 25 or fewer points in every other game of the season. The Bengals have had two of their very best games against their division opponents as they’ve beaten the Ravens and Steelers by a combined 38 points. I think we see a good bounce back from them this week against a Browns team that is in a bit of disarray at the moment after a promising start to the season.
Targets: D’Ernest Johnson, Jarvis Landry, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase
Fades: Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’ve seen some wild games in recent years between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals and, while I’m not expecting another repeat of last year’s pair of games that saw 65 and 71 points scored, we certainly have to be open to that possibility. The reality is that both teams’ defense are vastly improved from a year ago, and with both having playoff aspirations now midway through the year, there should be a more concise attack in which the main star players are asked to step up in a big spot.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Baker Mayfield, and both defenses
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We were never high on the Broncos here, and it is clear that they don’t believe in themselves either. Sitting at 4-4, very much in the playoff picture, they have gone ahead and traded away their best player, and the face of their organization in Von Miller. Their offense has been sputtering, having scored fewer than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games, so there simply isn’t much to like about them anymore. The Cowboys are coming off a huge win without their star quarterback, and with them getting Dak Prescott back, there is no reason to expect anything other than a comfortable Cowboys win.
Targets: Courtland Sutton, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper
Fades: Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every report is quite confident that Dak Prescott will start for the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, so there’s no reason to question it. Good thing, too, as it would have been quite easy to sell Cooper Rush in his second start. Now, we have to make a decision on whether to trust a possibly-injured Prescott against the sixth-best defense in the league or move away entirely. If pushed between only those two options, I’d actually prefer to look elsewhere for offense — I do respect Denver’s defense — but the more reasonable approach is just to target the game lightly. I’ll still push for some offense against the Cowboys’ defense, as it finally regressed a little in the takeaway department — after at least two in every single game, it had none last week — but the options are quite disheartening.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Teddy Bridgewater, Melvin Gordon III, and Jerry Jeudy
Fades: Ezekiel Elliott
Must-Owns: None
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Texans may be getting Tyrod Taylor back, but that storyline does not mean a lot to me as his early season magic was likely lost with his injury. The bigger storyline here is the 1-7 Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa heading to face the team in which they were all but guaranteed to be working out a trade involving Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson. What better time for the young quarterback to make a real statement than to prove everyone in the situation wrong for wanting to trade him at all, and for not pulling the trigger on a deal? Look for the Texans to suffer another big defeat in this game.
Targets: Brandin Cooks, Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Tyrod Taylor
Must-Owns: Tua Tagovailoa
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the Miami Dolphins’ offense has been a massive disappointment — really, the whole team has been, as well — is there any better time for the team to “get right” than at home against the Houston Texans? Granted, the same can be said about Houston, as it takes aim against a Dolphins defense that ranks second-worst in yards-per-game. The Texans will also be getting back quarterback Tyrod Taylor, so it instantly becomes more competitive than it had been in recent weeks with Davis Mills under center. The names aren’t flashy, but there are certainly some offensive targets here for our lineups.
Targets: All offensive players from Miami and Brandin Cooks
Fades: None, but I’m certainly not going heavy with too many players from Houston
Must-Owns: Tua Tagovailoa
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saints may be without Jameis Winston for the rest of the year, but for the same reason I supported them at the start of the year, I will continue to do so. They have a great offensive line, talented playmakers, a very strong defense and one of the best coaching staffs in the league. If any team can survive without elite quarterback play, it is them, and against an inconsistent and unreliable team like the Falcons, I expect to see a good team effort leading to a comfortable Saints victory.
Targets: Kyle Pitts, Mark Ingram, Tre’Quan Smith and Saints Defense
Fades: Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Obviously, the question mark at the quarterback position for the New Orleans Saints makes it a little tricky in terms of game expectation, but the bigger problem is that the two most likely quarterback options — Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill — have completely different effects on the team’s offense. In the past, when Hill has started, running back Alvin Kamara has been essentially useless. Hill leans on his legs more than arm, and the Redzone carries that used to belong to Kamara stay with Hill. I am sure that DFS players know this and, if Hill is starting, Kamara will be heavily avoided. For that reason — or if there is uncertainty right up until the time lineups lock — I might actually take a chance with Kamara, just in a limited number of lineups. On the other side of the ball, I’m not overly excited about anything the Atlanta Falcons offer against the Saints’ defense, but it’s hard to argue with tight end Kyle Pitts at such a valuable position.
Targets: Kyle Pitts, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Tre’Quan Smith, Saints Defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Raiders have been dealt another massive blow to the team with the Henry Ruggs situation. I had a lot of faith in them to rally together after Jon Gruden’s exit, and I am going to continue to believe in their ability to overcome obstacles. The currently sit alone atop the AFC West, and if they hope to hold onto that position, opponents like the Giants have to be taken care of. The Giants offense has hardly been dynamic, but with the limited resources, there is some appeal due to the reliable workloads.
Targets: Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, Devontae Booker, Kadarius Toney
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Darren Waller
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All week long, it feels like the game between the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders is missing something. Perhaps that “feeling” — and what’s actually missing — is any level of certainty. It is, after all, a non-conference game in which there is little familiarity between the teams. Between that and the Raiders returning from a bye week — and another midseason hurdle to clear — we can probably only look to Las Vegas’ aerial attack for our lineups. As I always write, the Raiders want to run the ball, but are downright bad at it — at least, in terms of being efficient. It’s also a risk to try to gauge anything about the Giants’ defense after their last game, since they played quite well on national television, and there is a chance of regression here. Overall, I’m not thrilled about the offensive production as a whole, and I might pull my defense from this matchup.
Targets: Both defenses, Devontae Booker, Kadarius Toney, and Darren Waller
Fades: None, but I won’t be too heavy from this game
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am having a hard time settling on which team I see winning this game, but either way, I am having a hard time getting behind this game from a fantasy perspective. Both teams are run by average at best quarterback play, funnel their offense through their running backs, and look to win games by slowing the pace of the game and leaning on their defense. Having one team with that makeup makes a game frightening to invest in heavily, but when both teams are made up like that, I just cannot advise much faith. Christian McCaffrey’s return presents one opportunity to buy low on one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league, but besides him, this game is not one I’ll be focused on much.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey
Fades: Basically everyone else in this game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always write about how I won’t let injury news impact what I want to do with a lineup, but the Carolina Panthers are a little too exposed in their game against the New England Patriots. What happens if Sam Darnold can’t play? I’ve liked P.J. Walker in the past, but not against Bill Belichick on the opposing sideline. And then there’s Christian McCaffrey, who would obviously be the focal point of New England’s defense if he were to play. I won’t entirely ignore that possibility though. We’ve seen McCaffrey return from injury in the past and get an insane amount of touches. He probably won’t be overly popular because there is a narrative floating that he may be limited, so he’s definitely a target for me. Otherwise, I will respect Carolina’s defense enough not to overload my lineup with Patriots’ players, but I’ll slide that number up higher if Walker is starting — because of the possibility of short fields.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey and both defenses
Fades: Most offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Given how the NFL schedule is created, it feels impossible that a team that won 13 games last season has had this easy of a schedule, but here the Bills are. This will be their 4th game of the season against a team that has one win through the first 8 weeks of the season. I keep wanting to buy into the Jaguars, because I do believe that Trevor Lawrence is the real deal. Despite that, the Jaguars continue to be a disaster seemingly every week. They have struggled on both sides of the ball, and the coaching staff seems completely overwhelmed. It is hard to suggest anything other than a Bills blowout here.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Bills Defense and Laviska Shenault Jr.
Fades: Trevor Lawrence
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are essentially two approaches that anyone can take with the game between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars: either expect the Bills to dismantle the Jaguars or the look for Jacksonville to put up a fight in a loss. Either way, the Bills’ offense should be fine against a Jaguars defense that ranks seventh-worst in yards-per-game and second-worst in net-yards-per-pass-attempt. Buffalo will probably have some of the most popular chalk on the slate, but it’s hard to argue with its upside. If the lineups fall where I need a one-off player, I will certainly look to someone from Jacksonville to capture some points in ‘garbage time.’
Targets: All Bills players and Trevor Lawrence
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Over the past few years, I have been fairly low on both of these teams compared to the general belief in them. With that said, I find myself weirdly confident that this is one of the highest scoring games of the week. The Ravens are coming off a really ugly loss to the Bengals. They struggled on both sides of the ball, and found themselves behind by 24 points at the final buzzer. Coming off that ugly performance, they take aim at a Vikings defense that ranks in the bottom half in the league against the pass and the rush. The Vikings on the other hand are coming off an ugly loss of their own where they watched Cooper Rush march up and down the field against them to the tune of 419 total yards. They are the kind of team that exactly when you lose faith in them, they stun you, and against a Ravens team that has allowed the most passing yards per game in the entire NFL, they could definitely stun us this week with an upset victory of their own.
Targets: All key offensive players
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Baltimore Ravens return to action following a bye week and will play host to a team that just lost on Sunday Night Football to a backup quarterback from the Cowboys. Based on that opening sentence alone, how can anyone look to the Vikings for their DFS lineups? That probably makes Minnesota’s key players nice targets for the weekend and that, coupled with Baltimore allowing the most passing yards in the league sets up nicely. The other side of the matchup is a lot less straightforward. The Vikings have been quite good at limiting points, but are prone to occasional drops in production while Baltimore has a positive correction looming considering that it ranks third-best in yards-per-game but only ninth-best in points-per-game. Once again, I expect the Ravens’ players’ popularity to be on the higher side, and I don’t see an argument against them having some success — especially in gaining yards.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Lamar Jackson, and Mark Andrews
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chargers are coming off back-to-back losses sandwiching their bye week, and the Eagles are coming off a 44-6 victory, but I’m not buying into any of that. The Chargers are simply a better team, and I cannot see them losing a third consecutive game at the hands of a lowly NFC East opponent. The one thing the Eagles have going for them is that the Chargers allow more rush yards per game than any team in the league. While that may be something the Eagles can exploit, it is impossible to feel good about picking a player to thrive between Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. Justin Herbert feels due for a big game, and even though the matchup isn’t great on paper, good offense typically trumps good defense, so my gut is to lean on the Chargers in this matchup.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Jared Cook and Jalen Hurts
Fades: Boston Scott
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure if the Philadelphia Eagles will throw a single pass on Sunday. Sure, that’s dramatic, but look at the direct matchup between Philadelphia’s run game — third-most rushing touchdowns and fourth-best yards-per-carry — and the Los Angeles Chargers’ run defense — dead last in yards-per-game and yards-per-carry. The problem — and it’s a big one — is that the Eagles now rotate through their running backs to the point where we can’t safely rely on one. There will need to be risks taken with this lopsided of a matchup, though. I am also a bit hesitant before jumping in with the Chargers’ offense. Los Angeles has scored a combined 30 points in its last two games and was clearly regressing after a hot start. Philadelphia’s defense is in the top-ten for yards allowed, so I will be approaching with caution.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Boston Scott, Jordan Howard, Kenneth Gainwell, Dallas Goedert, and Austin Ekeler
Fades: Justin Herbert
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every now and again, there is a game that stands out to a football fan as an epic matchup, and seeing Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes do battle had the chance to be that. Patrick Mahomes against Jordan Love just does not have the same buzz to it. The Packers are getting back all of their top three wide receivers for this game, but what can we really expect out of Jordan Love? His matchup is good, but with not much film or history to lean on, it is simply hard to expect much from him or the Packers offense as a whole. The Chiefs are going through their fair share of struggles, but they still have firepower that is hard to match, and I think they make a statement this week, even though it will come with a major asterix thanks to the absence of Aaron Rodgers.
Targets: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman
Fades: The rest of the Packers Wide Receivers
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I can’t stress enough how disappointing the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers now is without quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but of course, there is a major storyline that will come out of it. That is, the play of Jordan Love is ‘must-watch television.’ If you want to take a chance with him, then the setup is perfect against a terrible Chiefs defense — and, if Kansas City’s offense were to explode, it puts the pressure on Love to do more. Overall, it’s likely that the Packers will lean on the usual stars of Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, but Kansas City will be well-aware of that gameplan and probably do everything in its power to take it away — granted, it may not be able to do much. On the other side of the matchup, every narrative is about the Chiefs’ offensive failings and, particularly, Travis Kelce. I’m not buying it. I’m buying the Chiefs’ players instead.
Targets: Aaron Jones, Davante Adamas, Patrick Mahomes, and Tyreek Hill
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: When these two teams met in Week 5, we had faith in the 49ers to pull off a big upset. The circumstances are oddly similar this week, with Kyler Murray battling an injury. The big difference in this meetup is that the 49ers offense will have their starting quarterback available this time. You should know by now I am hardly a Jimmy Garappolo truther, but it is clear that as of today, they are a better team with him under center than with Trey Lance. The 49ers also have the added advantage of playing at home for this matchup. The Cardinals, following a nearly perfect 7-week stretch to start the season, showed they can stumble last week, and the setup is ripe for another stumble this week.
Targets: Chase Edmonds, Rondale Moore, Eli Mitchell and Deebo Samuel
Fades: Kyler Murray
Must-Owns: George Kittle
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In what-has-been a rapidly changing story, it currently looks like the Arizona Cardinals will be without quarterback Kyler Murray in Sunday’s divisional game against the San Francisco 49ers. That obviously has some impact on both the expected outcome and the fantasy potential for the matchup, but the reality is that I was probably avoiding using Murray against San Francisco’s defense anyway. This only lowers the ceiling further. Really, the clear matchup advantage is the 49ers’ rushing attack against a Cardinals defense that is allowing the second-most yards-per-carry.
Targets: Eli Mitchell, George Kittle, DeAndre Hopkins — if healthy — and both defenses
Fades: Kyler Murray
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Titans defense has had some ups and downs throughout the year, but overall, they still rank 20th or worse in total yards and points allowed. That doesn’t bode well for them against a Rams offense that ranks 5th in the league in yards and points. It is hard to imagine a scenario in a primetime game where this Rams offense gets shut down. That thought will resonate with most people, and will have many of them thinking the Rams blow out the Derrick Henry-less Titans. People love to underestimate Ryan Tannehill, and likely ignore the fact that the Rams defense hasn’t been the elite group we are used to seeing. The Rams ranks 21st in the league in passing yards allowed, and given the absence of Henry, and the likely game script, expect a lot of throws and possibly production from Tannehill and the Titans receiving corps.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Jeremy McNichols, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson Jr. and Van Jefferson Jr.
Fades: Rams Defense
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The storyline for Sunday Night Football is as obvious as it gets, and it will be plastered everywhere between now and kickoff. That is, how will the Tennessee Titans play without running back Derrick Henry? Overall, it will undoubtedly hurt the team to lose arguably its best player, but I doubt we see the results immediately. Tennessee was aware that Henry would be absent for Sunday’s game as soon as the team finished its most recent outing, so it has prepared accordingly. The bigger problem is how we, as DFS managers, attack the setup. It’s probably going to come down to deciding between Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols, and I suspect most people will simply lean on quarterback Ryan Tannehill. I will as well, but the key is in forcing that aforementioned decision and gain an edge on those who won’t. On the other side of the game, The Los Angeles Rams have an outstanding matchup against a terrible Titans defense and, while I don’t like to lean on the obvious route, we should be in store for a high-scoring game where the stars shine.
Targets: Jeremy McNichols, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson Jr
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Ryan Tannehill
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you’re a regular here, you know my stance on these two teams individually, and you can likely make a safe guess on where I stand for a matchup between the two of them. These teams run two of the least efficient and effective offenses in the league. Their defenses have both disappointed a bit this season compared to their expectations, but they have elite talent and face shaky offensive lines. This game has all the makings of a horrible display of offense. The lone point of optimism for these offenses is the fact that they may each face a few short field opportunities thanks to turnovers or big defensive or special teams plays.
Targets: Khalil Herbert, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson and Steelers Defense
Fades: Justin Fields and Ben Roethlisberger
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I ended the Sunday Night Matchup blurb by stating that I don’t like obvious outcomes, and I’ll go instantly ‘contrarian’ with Monday Night Football. I’m buying offense in bulk. I have, however, noted that the Pittsburgh Steelers feature one of the best defenses in the league for quite some time, so I will lean on Pittsburgh’s offense more than that of the Chicago Bears, but the point is that, even in a Showdown lineup, I won’t be putting too much stock in either defense — although in a two-game Primetime slate, we will probably have to use one from this matchup.
Targets: Either defense in the Primetime slate, but otherwise both quarterbacks, Khalil Herbert, Najee Harris, and Diontae Johnson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None