We are back to our biggest slate in weeks, and there is no shortage of options for the weekend. This means that, in contrast to the past few articles where we hesitated before completely avoiding a game, it’s more of a viable option now.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 8 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: To say that things weren’t pretty for the Panthers last week would be a massive understatement. Coming off a mid-game benching, I actually do like Sam Darnold to bounce back this week. Being benched happens, but to still get the vote of confidence moving forward is a reassuring thing for a young quarterback. The Falcons defense has allowed the third most points in the league, so the Panthers are great bounce back candidates. The Falcons offense has been humming along lately averaging just under 30 points per game and over 400 yards per game over their last three games. This game has sneaky potential.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Mike Davis
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The main storyline for the Carolina Panthers is the team’s quarterback position. As of this writing, Sam Darnold remains the starter and the team is now saying that it is out of the running to trade for Deshaun Watson. I believe neither comment, but it is a good sign for the offense that it immediately turned back to Darnold after a terrible performance that resulted in him being benched — as opposed to him playing with the fear that ‘one bad move’ could spell his doom. The better news for Carolina is that the Atlanta Falcons are still allowing the third-most points-per-game. I wouldn’t go ‘all-in’ with the Panthers’ offense, but this is essentially a ‘now-or-never’ game for the group. That is, unless Carolina’s defense leads the way like it did in the first few weeks of the season. I can’t justify leaning on too many players from the Falcons, even though we have seen some improvement.
Targets: Sam Darnold, Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bills have flat out owned the Dolphins in their recent meetings, and while it seems too obvious, I think that trend continues. I have been higher than usual lately on Tua Tagovailoa, but all of the Deshaun Watson speculation has to be weighing on him, and the Bills haven’t exactly been kind to the young quarterback. The Dolphins defense continues to struggle immensely, so a Bills team coming off a bye week has a very clear path to another blowout victory over their division rival.
Targets: Mike Gesicki, Josh Allen, Stefon DIggs, Emanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley and Bills Defense
Fades: Tua Tagovailoa and Myles Gaskin
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Don’t think that anyone has forgotten about the Buffalo Bills during their bye week. If anything, general football fans probably can’t wait to get them back on the field both for entertainment and fantasy purposes. That will lead to extreme popularity in a home game against a Miami Dolphins team with the worst defense in the league. It’s almost a ‘must’ to have someone from Buffalo on a roster just to offset the potential risk of fading the team entirely, but the ‘contrarian’ play is to limit this as much as possible. Miami’s offense will obviously need to move the ball in order to compete, but that has happened relatively well in the past two weeks with starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa healthy again. The Dolphins have eclipsed 410 yards of offense in back-to-back weeks after failing to even reach 350 in any of the team’s first five games. I would be fine looking to Miami for some offense.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I do think I will force a player from Miami into most of my lineups
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It seems like every week we come across a game that seems to have nothing to offer us fantasy football fans, and this game checks that box this week. The 49ers offense has been struggling, and a matchup against a strong Bears defense isn’t likely to help them turn things around. Speaking of struggling, the Bears offense seems to be redefining the very meaning of struggling. The 49ers defense is stout in their own right, so we are looking at two struggling offenses against two solid defenses. That has all the makings of a game worth avoiding.
Targets: Eli Mitchell, 49ers Defense, Khalil Herbert and Bears Defense
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chicago Bears present a dual storyline for Sunday, one of which is entirely driven by numbers. The first is that head coach Matt Nagy appears to be, once again, disagreeing with his organization’s plan at the quarterback position. It’s not a great look, but it might also mean that Justin Fields and his offense rallies together to make something happen against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers do boast one of the best defenses in the league, but they are also one of the worst in creating turnovers. That should help bail out Fields if he gets into trouble. The other element is the aforementioned numeric one, where Chicago’s offense has trended so low that a positive correction is imminent. It’s enough to make me a cautious buyer of the Bears’ offense. Quite frankly, the 49ers’ offense is equally a mess, and the same cautious approach I wrote about the Bears is also viable for San Francisco.
Targets: Eli Mitchell, Justin Fields, Khalil Herbert, Allen Robinson II, and Chicago’s defense
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Browns are getting reinforcements this week in the way of Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb, and it could not come at a better time. The Steelers are right in the mix of things in the division, and the Browns can’t afford to face this defense vastly shorthanded. The Steelers offense has struggled to run the ball effectively, and they have also struggled to throw the ball efficiently. That is a bad recipe for success for them against a Browns defense that ranks 2nd in the league in yards allowed. The Browns should be in line for a somewhat easy victory as long as their offense is able to sustain a few drives while leaning on the run game.
Targets: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Nick Chubb, D’Ernest Johnson and Jarvis Landry
Fades: Ben Reothlisberger and Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The main storyline for the Cleveland Browns is whether-or-not Baker Mayfield will start or if we will see Case Keenum for the second consecutive week. Either way, I’m not sure how we can have any confidence in the Browns’ offense. There’s even a chance that, if Mayfield were to start, he won’t finish the game. All this, and we haven’t even factored in that the Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the best defenses in the league. There’s always a chance that someone breaks through — and the Browns’ main weapons should be back — but the floor is too shaky for my liking. The same is true for Pittsburgh’s offense, where I would only use someone like Najee Harris. I can’t even support the use of a Steelers wide receiver like I have in the past, as too many will be in the lineup for the targets to all funnel in one direction.
Targets: Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Lions continue to find ways to lose, and while it is predictable based on their talent level, you have to give them credit for how they compete in most games and are willing to make the crazy type of plays we saw from them last week in an effort to secure their first victory. There may not be a better opponent for them to get that victory than the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles struggle on offense, and their defense has been mediocre at best. In a matchup of two struggling teams with poor defenses, sometimes the overall talent level doesn’t matter that much. There should be enough breaks and opportunities for both teams to put together respectable offensive outputs.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Gainwell, DeVonta Smith, Jared Goff, T.J. Hockenson and Kalif Raymond
Fades: None
Must-Owns: D’Andre Swift
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: How can either the Detroit Lions or Philadelphia Eagles look at their upcoming head-to-head matchup and not think that this is the game they could win? If, nothing else, we should see the best effort from both squads. Unfortunately, that’s not saying much. The Lions always have appeal because of how frequently they are trailing and throwing to keep pace, but the Eagles’ defense had been solid against the aerial attack in the past. Overall, I am fine leaning on some of the pass-catchers from both teams as this game could get out-of-hand in a hurry — neither team has consistently been able to stick to a gameplan.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Kenneth Gainwell
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After shaky starts to the season for both teams, these two AFC South rivals are finally beginning to resemble the teams we expected them to be before the season. The Titans are fresh off back-to-back wins against the Bills and Chiefs while the Colts have won 3 of their last 4 games with the lone loss being their loss to Baltimore in a game they controlled throughout. Despite their very impressive outing last week against the Chiefs, the Titans defense still ranks 20th or worse in both net yards allowed per pass attempt and yards allowed per rush attempt. That should allow the Colts offense to continue their strong form that has seen them score 25 or more points in 4 straight games. The Colts defense has been solid, but the Titans offense has clicked since their Week 1 fiasco, scoring 24 or more points in every game since. This game isn’t likely to be a total explosion in points, but both offenses are likely to produce enough to provide some decent fantasy value.
Targets: Derrick Henry, Jeremy McNichols, A.J. Brown, Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am actually, in no way, surprised by the Tennessee Titans’ impressive win against the Chiefs. Tennessee is a proud team that can play well in almost any matchup, and it was well-prepared for the matchup. I was, however, shocked to see Tennessee hold Kansas City to only three points — the worst of any offense led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes in his professional career. The Titans had previously allowed at least 30 points in three-of-their-six games and ranked near the bottom of the league in most categories. Technically, that’s still the case, and it’s why I wouldn’t avoid too many players from the Indianapolis Colts. Instead, Indianapolis’ defense deserves some respect for not allowing any opponent — including Tennessee in the two teams’ first meeting — to score more than 28 points in regulation. It’s enough that I will actually consider moving away from Derrick Henry and some of the main players for the Titans.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jr., Ryan Tannehill, and A.J. Brown
Fades: None, although I will be lighter on Derrick Henry than in the past
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bengals continue to impress and prove they are threats in the very strong AFC North. While they have been impressive as a whole, nothing has been more of a pleasant development than the growth of their defense which has shined all season long. The Bengals defense has been without question a top five group in the league overall, and in a matchup against a very weak Jets offense that is now without their quarterback and likely without their top wide receiver, they should absolutely feast. The Jets defense is better than their stats show, but their offense has made it impossible for them this season. That is likely to be the case again this week as their offense will be responsible for the Bengals offense having a ton of scoring opportunities in what figures to be a very lopsided game.
Targets: Entire Bengals Offense and Jamison Crowder
Fades: The rest of the Jets Offense
Must-Owns: Joe Mixon and Bengals Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you want to be completely crazy and throw a dart at trying to win a tournament, then you have the perfect opportunity with Mike White of the New York Jets. If you want to be reasonable, then don’t use Mike White of the New York Jets. Instead, use the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense. The reality is that the Jets actually could compete in this game, but it would happen via defense. Cincinnati’s offense was outstanding last week, but it was clearly an exception given the results of other matchups. Therefore, the real ‘contrarian’ play is simply to stay away from both offenses here, including Cincinnati’s.
Targets: Joe Mixon and both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There really isn’t much to say about this game. You have one of the best teams in the league in the Rams facing off with a Texans team that under Davis Mills has scored 39 points in the last five games with 22 of those coming in one game. In the other 4 games, the Texans have scored anywhere from 0 to 9 points, so saying they’ve been bad is the understatement of the year. The Rams hold a massive edge in every facet of this game and should dominate from start to finish.
Targets: The Rams
Fades: The Texans
Must-Owns: Darrell Henderson Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I often argue that one player — even a quarterback — does not have as a great an impact to a game as many would think, the Houston Texans would eagerly welcome Tyrod Taylor back under center. Really, the importance of the move is just to get away from Davis Mills, who had turned in such poor performances that he would put the team at risk again if he were to start. If nothing else, Taylor should force us to think twice before just burying the Texans without probable cause. On the other side of the ball, the Los Angeles Rams remain a machine and will be playing indoors again. There’s no reason to think they will slow down on Sunday.
Targets: Everyone on the Rams
Fades: Everyone on the Texans
Must-Owns: None, but I will probably use either Darrell Henderson, Jr. or Sony Michel in most of my lineups — based on salary constraints
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Patriots had their fun last week beating up on the Jets big time, but it is back to the real world this week. We continue to say the Patriots are a good team, but the fact of the matter is that their offense lacks high-end talent all around, and that makes it hard for them to win games. That is especially the case against a team like the Chargers that should be able to overcome the Patriots tough defense and put up plenty of points. The last time we saw the Chargers they had arguably the worst game we have seen from them under Justin Herbert, but coming off a bye week, they should be back to their normal dynamic selves.
Targets: Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Jared Cook
Fades: Patriots Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The football fan in me would love nothing more than to see a classic battle between two teams on different ends of their key components’ career arcs. That is, second-year quarterback Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers against arguably the greatest head coach of All-Time in Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots. Everything is lined up for an excellent showdown. I’m just not sure we get it. Last year, the Patriots completely stymied the Chargers and Herbert, leading to the worst game of his young career. That might also lead to Los Angeles making some adjustments and giving Herbert a little more with which he can work. Overall, I’m down on offense from either team in this game, but I would consider a player from each side if absolutely necessary.
Targets: Mac Jones, Jakobi Meyers, Keenan Allen, and both defenses
Fades: None, but I am being cautious with any other offensive player
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I never thought I’d say this this season, but I actually think that the Jaguars beat the Seahawks this week. The Jaguars offense has finally started to click a little bit recently thanks to the fact that they have finally gotten James Robinson going. The Seahawks defense has had a couple good games recently, but those came against Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston, hardly the two quarterbacks that are likely to exploit their weaknesses. Coming off a bye week, I expect the Jaguars offense to remind everyone that this Seahawks defense is simply not good. The Seahawks offense has a good matchup of their own, I just simply have no faith in Geno Smith to exploit that matchup.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Geno Smith
Must-Owns: James Robinson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Because of the past histories of both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks, a matchup between the two teams could have gotten ugly in a hurry. As it stands now, it might still be ugly, but the difference is that both teams may contribute to the poor play. The last time we saw the Jaguars, they were winning their first and only game of the year, while the Seahawks recently fought valiantly and lost on Monday Night Football. There are certainly enough holes on both teams’ defenses for the offenses to thrive, but I’m not sure anyone is capable of taking advantage. Like so many other games this week, I’m not targeting a full stack in any capacity, but I will use a player if needed.
Targets: James Robinson, Marvin Jones, Jr., D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Washington and Denver are two teams that rarely catch my attention, and a game featuring the two of them is very easy for me to look past. The Broncos defense has had some issues lately, but they still rank fifth in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed. Playing at home, they should be plenty capable of taking care of a struggling Washington offense that has scored just 23 points in their last two games. The Washington defense is hardly what we were expecting coming into this season, but they do rank 7th in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt, so they should be able to limit the two headed backfield of the Broncos which is the focal point of their offense.
Targets: J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton and Broncos Defense
Fades: Taylor Heinicke and Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Maybe, just maybe, the Washington Football Team’s defense is coming back toward its 2020 form. It definitely isn’t there yet, and it might be too far gone to consider such a recovery, but it is drifting in the right direction. That’s because the only team to reach 375 total yards against Washington in the last four games is Kansas City — obviously, one of the best offenses in the game. The Denver Broncos are far from the same class as the Chiefs — Denver ranks 24th in points and 22nd in yards — so I’m not looking for Denver to suddenly surge because of the matchup. I’m basically staying away from most offensive options in this game.
Targets: Antonio Gibson and both defenses
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It sounds crazy, and I am well aware of that, but the Saints are going to beat the Buccaneers this week. The Buccaneers offense has been borderline unstoppable all season, but the Saints defense has quietly been one of the best defenses in the league all season. They are hard to run against, and they have talent at every level that should be able to slow down the Bucs offense just enough to give their offense a chance. The Saints have kept Jameis Winston somewhat under control all season, rarely taking shots down field or asking him to throw too many passes. What better time than this week in his first matchup against his former team to fully unleash his arm and let him take shots against a vulnerable Bucs secondary?
Targets: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Alvin Kamara, Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith
Fades: Leonard Fournette and Buccaneers Defense
Must-Owns: Jameis Winston
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s actually a lot to like about the New Orleans Saints in their upcoming matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but it’s not necessarily going to lead to fantasy success. The Saints’ best and most important offensive player is running back Alvin Kamara, but basically no one runs successfully against Tampa Bay. Thankfully, so much of Kamara’s value comes from his receiving ability — where he probably isn’t playable on this slate in a format that isn’t point-per-reception — that it offsets the uphill battle of running against the Buccaneers’ defense. On the other side of the ball, the Saints’ run defense is also outstanding, which would push Tampa Bay to throw — and the Buccaneers don’t mind that approach. The twist is that quarterback Tom Brady had arguably his worst game with the Buccaneers last year against the Saints. He’s been doing so well that it’s difficult to think he and the offense suddenly stop, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: Leonard Fournette and both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If this were a normal week, I would be all aboard expecting this game to be high-scoring. The Cowboys offense ranks first in the league in yards and points while ranking third in the league in both net yards per pass attempt and yards rush attempt. The Vikings offense is 5th in the league in yards while ranking 10th in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt. The Cowboys defense is especially vulnerable against the pass — 28th in the league in net yards allowed per rush attempt — and the Vikings defense is especially vulnerable against the run — 30th in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt. The only question mark for this game is the health of Dak Prescott. If he is out or severely limited, that changes the entire outlook of the game, but assuming he is a full go, this game has “high-scoring” written all over it.
Targets: Dak Prescott (if healthy), Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but this game has tons of appeal
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is a lot still to be determined with the Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings, but the main storyline is the health of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. As of this writing — and for the better part of the week — it appears as if Prescott will play. Still, there have been countless reports that he isn’t fully healthy, and I’m always concerned with a lingering injury. Prescott has proven that he is still delivering anyway, so just be aware that the risk is present in both directions — in that completely avoiding him might also be dangerous. Most importantly, I remain unconvinced that the Cowboys’ defense is going to stay on its outstanding and impossibly great turnover pace, and the Minnesota Vikings are coming off a bye and returning home. I’m definitely buying into some offense there.
Targets: Dak Prescott (if healthy), CeeDee Lamb, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but we need a fair amount of exposure to this matchup in a two-game slate
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week saw the Giants win a game 25-3 and the Chiefs lose a game 27-3. Everything about that feels impossible and flat out wrong, and I have to expect a major bounce back to reality this week. Yes, the Chiefs have issues, but there is far too much talent on that offense for me to lose faith after one terrible game. Before last week, The Giants defense was struggling mightily, allowing 82 points over the previous two games. The only reason that I don’t see the Chiefs totally blowing the Giants out is because their defense continues to be nothing short of terrible. That should allow the Giants offense to put together enough production to keep the game moderately close.
Targets: Daniel Jones, any healthy Giants wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce
Fades: Devontae Booker
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As adamant as I have been that the Kansas City Chiefs will be fine — and they will be! — it does feel like it’s a little too obvious to walk into Monday Night Football and expect an offensive explosion just because a positive correction is needed. There is a chance that the New York Giants find a way to slow down Kansas City and, if you want a ‘contrarian’ route for either the two-game slate or the Showdown contest, then fading the Chiefs’ offense is the way to go. Otherwise, both offenses are in play as Kansas City simply can’t stop anyone.
Targets: Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Daniel Jones, any healthy Giants wide receiver, and Evan Engram
Fades: Decontae Booker
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes