The slates keep getting shorter, as we have now reached our smallest scheduled week to date. Thankfully, most of the matchups have a relatively clear ‘expectation,’ whether in the actual game flow or the general mindset of the football-watching world.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 7 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have been known to be Taylor Heinicke apologists at times here because he has shown flashes in his brief NFL career, but it is becoming increasingly clear that he is not a long term solution at quarterback. It is also worth noting that the Packers defense continues to play really good football as they quietly rank 5th in the league in total yards allowed. It is hard to have much faith in Washington in this game after watching them put up a total dud against the inept Kansas City Chiefs defense last week. The Packers offense has basically been league-average across the board this year, but against this Washington defense that continues to struggle, it is hard to imagine that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t make enough happen to produce a convincing Packers victory.
Targets: J.D. McKissic, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and Packers Defense
Fades: Taylor Heinicke and Antonio Gibson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m fully on-board with the Green Bay Packers serving as one of the best teams in the National Football League, but it is fair to question just how effective the offense has been. Efficient? Definitely, in that the team ranks 15th in scoring, but 23rd in yards. The latter is where I focus, though, and it leads me to hesitate before overloading my roster with members from Green Bay’s offense — even against a Washington Football Team defense that has been a major disappointment. The reality is that the Packers’ defense has been a bright spot for the team, so that lowers Washington’s potential on offense. I wouldn’t stay away from the game altogether, but I wouldn’t use more than one player from either team if I were to look here to fill out a roster.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Taylor Heinicke, and J.D. McKissic
Fades: None, but I’m probably not using too much offense from this game
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chiefs have some serious problems, but the people who are totally writing them off are definitely jumping the gun. Their defense is beyond struggling, they seem to do this every year and then start to improve as the season goes on. They are also turning the ball over far too often, but it is hardly hampering their overall offensive output. This Chiefs offense still ranks 2nd in the league in yards and 5th in points while ranking 7th in both efficiency stats for passing and rushing attempts. The Titans defense has allowed over 350 yards of offense in all but one game, so we will continue to roll out the Chiefs offense with the utmost confidence. The Titans offense continues to be dragged along by the insane production of Derrick Henry, and there is no reason to expect things to change this week. The Chiefs defense stands very little chance of slowing down Henry this week.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, any healthy Chiefs pass catcher, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones (assuming both receivers are active)
Fades: Darrel Williams
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It felt too chalky for me to ask the Tennessee Titans to play in a high-scoring game last Monday night, but I ultimately landed on it as the only possible outcome. On Sunday, they have an even better matchup and setup for offense. Of course, so do the Kansas City Chiefs on the other side of the ball. I always argue against the obvious outcome, so I will caution that, of course, anything could happen. Still, it’s almost impossible to see how these two defenses have played so far and not expect an absolute offensive explosion. Anyone who is healthy is on my radar here, but I’ll probably won’t use a game stack in every one of my lineups.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None in particular, but having someone from this game is a must
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In some sense, this game feels totally unfair to the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are coming off a trip to London and now have to play a game the following week after their routines are severely interrupted. To make matters worse, they are playing a Falcons team that is coming off a bye week. The Falcons offense finally clicked in their last game, and now they are back at full strength, rested, and taking on a Dolphins defense that is unable to stop anyone this year. The Falcons are in a great position to jump all over this Dolphins team and claim an early lead. The Dolphins offense finally came to life last week with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, and he is likely to be leaned on heavily again this week. Playing from behind should lead to a ton of opportunity for the Dolphins passing game, and considering the Falcons have allowed over 340 yards of offense in all but one game — including to three NFC East teams that are not the Dallas Cowboys — I like their chances to put up plenty of yards and points in a comeback effort.
Targets: Essentially all healthy offensive players from both teams
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Calvin Ridley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In the complete opposite vein as the aforementioned game between the Chiefs and Titans, I imagine most of the fantasy community will look at both the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins and simply go elsewhere for offense. Not so fast. There isn’t enough here for me to go crazy and add numerous players, but at least one from this game will probably be enough to differentiate. Clearly, Jaylen Waddle is emerging as a reliable target for the Dolphins, but Atlanta also returns to action with Calvin Ridley back in the lineup. I have been targeting Ridley in most of his games this year — sadly, with less-than-ideal outcomes — and I’ll go back to him again on Sunday.
Targets: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Ridley, and Kyle Pitts
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Patriots may be 2-4 on the year, but three of their four losses could have easily been wins with any luck. They won’t need luck this week against a Jets team that is still one of the worst in the league. The Pats managed to assert their dominance over Zach Wilson once this season, and I trust Bill Belichick to be able to replicate that much more than I expect Zach Wilson to be able to learn from it this quickly. The Patriots offense isn’t built to totally dominate anyone, but they have the ability to methodically move the ball and take advantage of some good field position to open a big lead in this game and control this one throughout.
Targets: Jamison Crowder, Mac Jones, Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers and Patriots Defense
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Is it too obvious to look at the last time the New England Patriots and New York Jets met and conclude that a similar outcome is in the works? Probably, but it’s also hard to completely dismiss that outing. The Patriots have relied on their defense to win games in the past, and they will certainly do the same on Sunday. The Jets are still trying to figure out their identity but, at one point, the team will have to throw the ball to win. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities for New York’s offense to be a surprise after a bye week and against a division rival, so it might be worth rolling the dice if trying to win a tournament. It just carries the obvious risk of failure.
Targets: Zach Wilson — but only in the most extreme attempt to win a tournament — Jamison Crowder, Mac Jones, Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers, and Patriots defense
Fades: None, but I’m not buying too heavily into offense from the Jets
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Carolina Panthers’ hot start has been wiped away by three consecutive losses, but they get the perfect bounceback opportunity this week. The Panthers strong defense will take aim at a Giants offense that has been brutalized by injuries. They may or may not receive some backup this week, but it is an offense that is hard to trust when 100% healthy let alone playing without key contributors. The Giants defense has also been a shell of what we saw last season. They have struggled to stop the run and the pass which has led to them ranking 27th in total yards allowed and 29th in total points allowed. The Giants really have nothing going for them right now, so Carolina should be able to control this game comfortably.
Targets: Sam Darnold, DJ Moore, Panthers Defense and Sterling Shepard
Fades: Daniel Jones
Must-Owns: Chubba Hubbard
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Probably the best feature of the matchup between the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers it is that it is likely to get overlooked. Sure, Chuba Hubbard is going to be on most people’s radars because of the matchup and game flow — he’ll be on mine as well — but that’s probably where the exposure to this game will end. I’m not buying into a high-flying, back-and-forth battle, but I would look to fill out my roster with players from either team simply because of the lack of popularity. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has a difficult matchup against a Carolina defense that remains one of the best in the league — even if it has been beaten in recent weeks — and the new use of his rushing ability gives his fantasy ceiling a boost. The same can be said about Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold, who had five rushing touchdowns through four games — and three wins — but none in the last two weeks — both losses.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Chuba Hubbard, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Baltimore made quite the statement last week as they dismantled the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bengals performed a dismantling of their own, but it was a tad less impressive being that it came against the lone winless team in the NFL. With that said, if there is one thing we are comfortable stating about this Bengals team, it is that their defense is legitimately good. The Bengals defense ranks 7th in yards allowed per rush attempt, 5th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, 8th in total yards allowed and 5th in total points allowed. Their opponents have not been the best persay, but to not allow a single game of more than 25 points through six games is impressive no matter who the competition is. I am expecting a classic AFC North slugfest type of matchup as these battle for first place in the division.
Targets: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Lamar Jackson, Devonta Freeman — if Latavius Murray is out — and Mark Andrews
Fades: Joe Burrow
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As much as I don’t want to lean on old reputations, it’s difficult to look at the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals and expect anything other than a typical AFC North slugfest where defense leads the way. In reality, that is a strength for both teams — not necessarily the strength, but a strength. Between the familiarity due to the divisional matchup and the defensive numbers, we are likely looking at a lowered ceiling for the game. That doesn’t mean all players will fail, though. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to produce and probably gains a boost because of the injuries to the running backs, while Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase remain key components for Cincinnati’s offense.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and C.J. Uzomah
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has my attention, but probably not in a way many people will be looking at it. Each of these teams has a running back that was likely a high draft pick in season-long fantasy leagues that has been a major disappointment this season. Both Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs were expected to have big roles in their offense this year, and neither has found much success as other parts of their offense has significantly out-produced them. I actually like both of them to turn in good performances this week due to the set up for each player. The Raiders defense is 2nd in the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt while ranking just 26th in yards allowed per rush attempt. Just one week after the Eagles coaching staff addressed the need to get Sanders going, they got handed a great opportunity to do just that. Jacobs has taken a major back seat this season to the Raiders passing game, but this week could be his time to shine. I like the Raiders to establish a lead against an inferior Eagles team which sets up a good game script for him against an Eagles team that has faced more rush attempts than any team in the league and ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller
Fades: Derek Carr
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders is full of unusual setups. There is the non-conference element, where the two teams don’t play each other often. There is also the defensive numbers, where both teams are above average in yards-per-game. And then, when we put the squads together, we still find that fantasy potential awaits. Both quarterbacks are having excellent fantasy football season, even if some of the numbers — and games — have been less-than-desirable. I won’t shy away from any of the key playmakers, but I also don’t like the idea of diving too deep into the role players in the event that either defense steps up on Sunday.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Miles Sanders
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there were ever a game I am willing to predict a blowout, it would be this one. Last week, I wrote that it may be the final straw for a Lions team that was teetering on a complete collapse, and we may have finally seen them break. The Lions are devoid of talent across the board, and after last week’s game their head coach publicly embarrassed their quarterback — who has been decent this season considering what he has to work with. This Lions team that we have respected for their compete level is ripe for endless struggles at this point, and a matchup with their old friend, Matthew Stafford, and his Rams is not likely to help them out at all. This game has all the makings of a complete and utter beatdown.
Targets: The Rams
Fades: The Lions
Must-Owns: Matthew Stafford
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In leading with the ‘storyline’ portion of the writeup, we have an outstanding narrative between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions. Namely, the starting quarterbacks. Both were traded for one another this past offseason, and the two teams have went in opposite directions since. The Lions are still looking for their first win, while the Rams have just one loss on the year. It’s not necessarily likely for Los Angeles to continually throw the ball just for the sake of padding quarterback Matthew Stafford’s numbers, but he will surely be involved early on in the game. That’s enough for me to target him. I won’t do the same with Jared Goff, though. I have written in the past about how Goff has thrived in ‘garbage time,’ but that value is depleted against his former team — and the head coach that unlocked his potential. I’ll also continue to rely on Cooper Kupp because Stafford won’t stop throwing to him.
Targets: D’Andre Swift — if healthy — Darrell Henderson, Jr., Rams’ pass-catchers, and Rams defense
Fades: Everyone else from Detroit
Must-Owns: Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You can all but copy and paste exactly what I wrote about the Rams game for this game as well. The Cardinals are undefeated and boast a top-ten offense and defense while the Texans are 1-5 — with that win coming against the fellow one-win Jaguars — and limp onto the field with a bottom-ten offense and defense. The Texans have scored just 34 points over their past four games combined, and 22 of those came in one game. There isn’t much else to say here as we all know what we will be expecting from this game.
Targets: The Cardinals
Fades: The Texans
Must-Owns: James Conner — if Chase Edmonds is out
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I never like to completely discard a team, but how on earth will the Houston Texans do anything against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday? Indeed, the Cardinals don’t have the best defense in the league, but it’s more than acceptable and the Texans’ offense is downright pathetic. I do always write about the team expected to trail to throw for a large majority of the game, so I will consider quarterback Davis Mills and top wide receiver Brandin Cooks. I just won’t do it with confidence. Everyone from Arizona is clearly worth a look.
Targets: Davis Mills, Brandin Cooks, and everyone from Arizona
Fades: Everyone else from Houston
Must-Owns: None in particular, but someone from Arizona is probably a must
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a late afternoon slate filled with potential blowouts, we come to the Justin Fields vs. Tom Brady matchup, and you know what I think happens in that matchup. The Bears offense has produced the fewest yards in the entire NFL while also producing the fewest passing yards in the league and the fewest net yards per pass attempt. They have been decent running the ball, but the Buccaneers’ defense is all but impossible to run against with their talent and usual game script, so that won’t save the Bears this week. The Buccaneers’ offense will likely run into a bit of a hard time against a tough Bears defense, but this offense simply has too much talent to slow down for an entire game, so eventually they will simply wear down and overpower the Bears for a relatively easy victory.
Targets: Darnell Mooney, Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cameron Brate
Fades: The rest of the Bears offense
Must-Owns: Buccaneers Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Of all the late afternoon matchups with absolutely no appeal other than expecting a big victory — and thus, some offense from one side — the matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears has me slightly intrigued. The problem is that it has quite a wide range of outcomes. The Bears’ defense is good enough to turn this into a low-scoring matchup, but Tampa Bay’s pass defense has been susceptible enough that Bears quarterback Justin Fields may have some success with his pass-catchers. That’s probably where I am leaning as a general expectation, where Chicago will need to throw at one point — especially since it’s almost impossible to run on the Buccaneers’ defense. Of course, I won’t count out quarterback Tom Brady and the rest of Tampa Bay’s playmakers, but I am going to respect Chicago’s defense enough to scale back my expectations.
Targets: Justin Fields, Allen Robinson II — if healthy — Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is getting late early for both of these teams that entered the season with playoff aspirations. A loss this week will be devastating to either team, and that could lead to a decent game from both teams. The 49ers are coming off a bye week, so they should be plenty rested and prepared for this game. The Colts essentially got a bye week last week in playing the Texans, and are coming off their two best games of the season. I like both offenses to be able to produce in this game, but considering neither offense or defense has been exceptionally good or bad in any front, there is no major area to target. Lean on the main targets in either offense as there aren’t many reliable options for either team.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal — if T.Y. Hilton is out — Jimmy Garoppolo, Elijah Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Deebo Samuel
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure what it’s going to take for the Indianapolis Colts to get some respect from the football-watching world, but they have another chance to show what they can do on a national stage. Mainly, that means running back Jonathan Taylor will take the lead yet again, and I see no reason to move away from him, regardless of the matchup. The San Francisco 49ers are also turning back to Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but he’s been so inconsistent this year that we can basically build our lineups around general expectations for him. If you’re not sold on Garoppolo — I haven’t been for years — then the play is Indianapolis’ defense. Otherwise, you have Garoppolo and his pass-catchers at your disposal for either the two-game slate or a Showdown contest.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Jr., Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and either defense based on your expectation for a particular team
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Any year but this year, and a Saints at Seahawks Monday night game would be amazing. But this isn’t Drew Brees against Russell Wilson, this is Jameis Winston against Geno Smith. Jameis has had plenty of ups this season and also plenty of downs while Geno Smith has filled in admirably for Wilson thus far. Despite that, it just feels hard to get overly excited for this game with how these two offenses are currently set up to operate. The Saints are running a run-heavy offense that relies on a by-committee approach when they get near the endzone. That has capped the ceiling of their entire offense, and even in this positive matchup, it is hard to see a big game coming from anyone other than potentially Alvin Kamara. Geno Smith almost managed a primetime win against the Steelers last week, but the 165 total passing yards and 309 total yards of offense almost felt like a ceiling game from the Wilson-less Seahawks offense, so my expectations remain tempered against another strong defense.
Targets: Marquez Callaway, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Jameis Winston and Geno Smith
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We continue to see that Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith can give something to an offense, but also continue to see that “something” isn’t enough. The New Orleans Saints have allowed the fourth-fewest points-per-game in the league and have the fourth-most takeaways. The matchup is certainly in their favor, and the game flow then points to running back Alvin Kamara. He’s a ‘must-start’ for me. There is some value to Seattle’s defense as it stepped up nicely in last week’s Primetime game against the Steelers. In the end, there will certainly be some offense from these two teams, but it will likely be subdued.
Targets: Marquez Callaway, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Mostly all offensive players
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara