We are always faced with the same situation in the final week of the regular season. We need to plan for any outcome that ranges from a team resting its starters to playing them through to completion. But that’s not even the biggest issue. We can determine some intent for a large number of teams, but doing so will focus our attention only there. That’s one of the reasons why we go through every game. If we can treat every opportunity fairly, then we can probably find some players that will be overlooked or ignored by the DFS community.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 18 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In our first ever Week 18, I am not going to dedicate much of my attention to a meaningless game that involves two backup quarterbacks. Neither team has anything to play for in this one, and that makes it impossible to trust that any starter will play much in this game. The only options to consider are the defenses and possible fringe players that have no reason to be rested.
Targets: Samaje Perine, Bengals Defense, D”Ernest Johnson and Browns Defense
Fades: Brandon Allen and Case Keenum
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We are already aware that both starting quarterbacks from the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns will sit out Sunday’s contest, and that puts most of the other players at risk. As we wrote in the introduction, we should look upon this as an opportunity to target the areas where others are avoiding, and find some offense in the game. If, nothing else, there are serious discounts to be had in some of the key positions. That’s certainly where I want to focus my attention.
Targets: Samaje Perine, Chris Evans, Case Keenum, and Jarvis Landry
Fades: Ja’Marr Chase — even though I do think it’s possible he catches an early touchdown and then rests, but that’s only if he starts
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There may be no greater wild card than the Green Bay Packers in terms of fantasy targets. They are not planning to rest their starters given they have a bye week clinched in the playoffs, but do we really trust that? If you are a single lineup player, you can’t possibly target the Packers top players because it seems unlikely to me that they play much of this game. If you do make many lineups though, rolling out Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams is a bold strategy that could pay off if the duo stays in the game longer than expected.
Targets: AJ Dillon, Packers Defense and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: Aaron Rodgers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Without knowing what he is writing — we are working on this article separately — I am quite sure that Luke is going to argue that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will play the majority of the game for the Green Bay Packers. And I am going to argue that argument. Therein lies one of the most important decisions to make on Sunday, and I don’t see any way around taking the chance if you have multiple lineups and avoiding the Packers’ offense entirely if you aren’t. Either way, the Detroit Lions have earned respect in that they have fought for a large majority of the season. That will continue in the finale, so I have no objection with targeting a few playmakers from Detroit.
Targets: Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and all Packers based on how you want to handle the risk
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Would there be anything more typical of the Minnesota Vikings than coming out in a meaningless game and dominating a division rival? Neither team has any incentive in this game, and that simply feels like a time for Kirk Cousins to shine. WIth Adam Thielen out, I fully expect to see a great game from Justin Jefferson as the Vikings put an exclamation point on an otherwise mediocre season. The Bears may still be without Justin FIelds, but given the game script I am expecting, and the struggles of the Vikings defense all season, I actually like the Bears offense to have some success in this one as well making this game one of my favorite fantasy targets of the week.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, K.J. Osborne, Tyler Conklin, David Montgomery and Darnell Mooney
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Justin Jefferson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the game has no playoff implications, the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears actually carries some weight. Both head coaches are on the metaphorical hot seat — where it is a foregone conclusion that the Bears will be making a change following the game — and the Vikings are finally at full strength. Relatively speaking, anyway. Mainly, running back Dalvin Cook and quarterback Kirk Cousins will both be on the field, and that raises the ceiling for everyone around them. Chicago was originally planning to turn back to Justin Fields, but he is now on the COVID reserve list and is likely out. It’s not impossible for the Bears’ offense to find some success against a terrible Vikings’ defense, but Chicago has barely moved the ball well at any point, so it’s not likely to start in Week 18.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and David Montgomery
Fades: Everyone else from Chicago
Must-Owns: Justin Jefferson
Washington Football Team at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a week with so much on the line, I can’t find a single reason to focus on an NFC East battle between Taylor Heinicke and Jake Fromm. These offenses have been bad for the whole season, and have been struggling even more of late. Washington has failed to score more than 20 points since Week 11, and the Giants have capped out at 21 points since Week 9. It has been a disappointing season for both franchises, and there is no reason to expect a sudden bright spot this many weeks in.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, Football Team Defense, Saquon Barkley and Giants Defense
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Mike Glennon is going to miss the season finale for the New York Giants, and this means that Jake Fromm slides into the starting role — barring any official word to the contrary. I’m all for taking the risk with someone like Fromm in a lineup, but that risk must be incredibly small. Otherwise, I’m leaning on the Washington Football Team and both sides of the ball contributing to a victory.
Targets: Jake Fromm — only in one lineup of many — Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Washington’s defense
Fades: Mostly everyone from New York’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you are a regular here, then by now you know I am bullish on the Colts, and I have been for the better part of two years now. With that in mind, I am not going to back off now in a game they need to win to clinch their playoff berth, against the worst team in football. In their first matchup, the Colts didn’t play their best, and barely wound up winning that game. While that is a minor concern, the Colts are built to beat up on bad teams, and have done that all year. Meanwhile, since firing Urban Meyer, the Jaguars may have actually gotten worse which really didn’t seem possible.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman Jr. and Colts Defense
Fades: Jaguars Offense
Must-Owns: Jonathan Taylor
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is absolutely no secret as to what the Indianapolis Colts want to do and how they will approach their ‘must-win’ game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That is, they will lean on running back Jonathan Taylor constantly like they always do. I see no reason to avoid Taylor, even at his high price, but I am actually going to scale back my exposure to him slightly. The Jaguars were just pummeled into embarrassment, and it’s possible they put up a fight. If there is any strength on the team, it is in the form of an average run defense — as opposed to everything else ranking among theorist in the league. I may go as far as using an offensive player from Jacksonville, but I won’t be overly aggressive with it.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Trevor Lawrence, and Laquon Treadwell
Fades: Most of Jacksonville’s offense
Must-Owns: None, but obviously Jonathan Taylor is close
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it looks quite bleak for both teams, this is one of the very few games on the schedule this week where both teams are technically alive in the playoff picture. The Steelers are no doubt coming in with more momentum, but that has more to do with the fact that the Ravens haven’t won a game since Week 12. Despite that, I think they are still the better team, and have actually been playing mostly good football during this extended losing streak especially considering they have been playing without Lamar Jackson. The Steelers offense simply stinks right now — they rank 29th in net yards per pass attempt and 27th in yards per rush attempt. I have taken my shots with them throughout the year, but just like it has for Ben Roethlisberger, I am expecting the gas to run out for the Steelers this week.
Targets: Diontae Johnson, Tyler Huntley and Mark Andrews
Fades: Ben Roethlisberger
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In what has been the ongoing narrative of the last month or so, the Baltimore Ravens will officially be without quarterback Lamar Jackson. It does change the offense, but not in a tremendously significant way. If anything, it boosts the value of tight end Mark Andrews who has been a main focal point of backup-turned-starter Tyler Huntley. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, this appears to be the last game for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but we saw how little impact that had on his fantasy numbers last week. Indeed, his volume was incredibly high, but even his counting statistics were disappointing. Wide receiver Diontae Johnson being available to play makes the offense far more appealing, but it still somewhat capped.
Targets: Tyler Huntley, Mark Andrews, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and both defenses
Fades: Ben Roethlisberger
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: What a year it has been for the Tennessee Titans. They built what looked like a super team on offense, only to come out of the gates struggling mightily. They then righted the ship behind a dominant Derrick Henry, only to lose him mid-season. Since then, they have mostly struggled offensively, yet here we are in Week 18, and they are one win away from clinching the number one seed in the AFC. A veteran team that is well coached is not going to blow that opportunity, and they are certainly not going to blow it against a team like the Texans. As I have said in recent weeks, I give Davis Mills some credit for how he has performed this year given the extremely unfavorable circumstances in Houston. While I stand by that, this game is all about the Titans and securing the Round 1 bye.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, D’Onta Foreman, Dontrell Hilliard, A.J. Brown and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Davis Mills
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans are in a prime position on Sunday, but there is a decision to be made. That is, running back Derrick Henry might return to the field — at least, he is eligible to return. I can’t fathom it happening, but if you are taking an extreme risk in a big tournament with multiple entries, he is probably worth the investment in moderation — as long as he is not inactive. Otherwise, the Titans should be in control for the majority of the game, and I can’t look to anyone from the Houston Texans except wide receiver Brandin Cooks — and, for the discount, Nico Collins.
Targets: Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry — in one lineup if he is active — D’Onta Foreman, A.J. Brown, and Titans defense
Fades: Davis Mills
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Say what you will about the New Orleans Saints, but in games started by either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, they are 8-3. Unfortunately for them, they have had to play 5 games this season with either their third or fourth string quarterbacks. There are not many teams that would have accomplished what the Saints have given those circumstances, and that is why I am all-in them doing their part to help sneak into the playoffs. They also need help from the Rams as the 49ers have to lose in order for the Saints to catch them, but that is entirely possible so expect the best the Saints have to offer. The Falcons have had exactly the type of season you would expect from them — they look like a mess seemingly every week and constantly find ways to break your heart, yet somehow they still managed to win a bunch of games and be in the playoff hunt until close to the end of the year. I don’t like picking against the Saints defense, but Kyle Pitts is on the verge of rookie tight end history, and in an otherwise meaningless game, Matt Ryan should feed his top receiving option.
Targets: Taysom Hill and Cordarrelle Patterson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara and Kyle Pitts — assuming he is active
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New Orleans Saints need a little help in order to get into the playoffs, but all hope is not lost. Before they start planning their trip for next week, they need to win their game. Unfortunately for us trying to build a DFS lineup, there is little allure to this matchup. Running back Alvin Kamara is always on my radar, but that’s probably the extent of the exposure I want to the Saints’ offense. The Atlanta Falcons have been all over the place offensive, but tight end Kyle Pitts has been the bright spot. He is now 58 receiving yards away from breaking the record for most by a rookie tight end.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Cordarrelle Patterson, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else on offense
Must-Owns: Kyle Pitts
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bills have a chance to clinch the AFC East, and all they have to do is beat the Jets. Considering beating up on bad teams has been the number thing Buffalo has done well this season, I don’t see them squandering this opportunity. The Jets have quietly been playing decent football over the last few games, but they are far the far inferior team with far less reason to care about this game. That is not a good recipe for any team, so my overall expectations for them are quite low.
Targets: Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox and Bills Defense
Fades: Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: Josh Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We are starting to see some signs-of-life from the New York Jets’ offense, but there remains plenty of risk with buying into anyone from their offense. Is it impossible for them to put together an impressive outing? Of course not. But the Buffalo Bills have completely dominated weaker opponents, and the Jets fall into that category. Buffalo needs a win in order to clinch the AFC East, so it is one of the few teams that we can ask to compete for the full sixty minutes. All of their main stars are worth targeting, as they are likely to be some of the most popular plays of the weekend — for good reason.
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Bills Defense, Zach Wilson, Michael Carter, and Jamison Crowder
Fades: Jets offense unless you are being ‘contrarian’
Must-Owns: None, but it’s hard to not use someone from Buffalo
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it may be fair to question the Rams willingness to play their starters throughout this game, they certainly have enough to play for this week, that I am not expecting any issues in that regard. First off, they are looking to clinch the division and lock up the number two spot in the NFC which is very valuable. It may seem silly to some, but Sean McVay seems like a coach that will want his players to achieve individually as well as the team, so I expect the Rams to be leaning on Cooper Kupp as he is one big game away from breaking the single season receiving yards record. On top of all of that, they have a chance to eliminate the 49ers from the playoffs — should the Saints take care of business as well — and I can’t imagine the Rams want to be seeing their division foe in the playoffs. I am never particularly high on Jimmy Garappolo, but with him expected to be playing through a thumb injury on his throwing hand, my expectations are that much lower.
Targets: Eli Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Matthew Stafford, Sony Michel and Odell Beckham Jr.
Fades: Jimmy Garappolo
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just wrote about the Buffalo Bills needing to win in order to earn a division title, but the San Francisco 49ers need to win in order to clinch the playoffs. The difference goes a bit deeper, as the 49ers’ matchup is far more difficult than what Buffalo will face, and San Francisco will have to step up in order to topple the Los Angeles Rams. Basically every offensive player from both sides is worth a look from this matchup, where wide receiver Cooper Kupp is the obvious ‘must-play’ as he tries to chase history with his unparalleled season.
Targets: All key offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Patriots are in somewhat of an interesting position this week given that they have already clinched a playoff spot, and they are technically fighting for the top spot in the division, but given the Bills are a win against the Jets away from securing that, this game is largely irrelevant for the Patriots. Their playoff destiny is all but sealed, but the focus this week should be tuning themselves up for the playoffs, and avoiding injuries. I don’t expect them to sit starters, but I would not completely rule it out either. I think they win this game either way as the Dolphins have had their chances crushed after their 7-game winning streak came to an end, and the Patriots owe them some payback for their Week 1 matchup.
Targets: Rahmondre Stevenson, Brandon Bolden, Kendrick Bourne, Patriots Defense and Jaylen Waddle
Fades: Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa
Must-Owns: None, but Stevenson is close if Damien Harris is out
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there is one storyline that must be highlighted in the game between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, it’s the collective regression from both sides toward the mean. The Dolphins will not score only three points again, while the Patriots won’t hit 50. That adds value to Miami’s offense while lowering New England’s. I want to target this edge with someone from the Dolphins, although Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is infamous for limiting the opponent’s top weapon, which makes wide receiver Jaylen Waddle a risk.
Targets: Mac Jones, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Seahawks season is obviously over, but I’m sure they would love to play spoiler just a little bit this week against a division rival looking to better their playoff positioning. Despite all their struggles, and there have been many, the Seahawks offense has quietly been good over the last month or so, having scored 30 or more points in 3 of their last 5 games. The emergence of Rashaad Penny has really helped their offense turn things around, and we have seen the Cardinals struggle to stop the run at times this year. With the Cardinals unlikely to catch the Rams, Chase Edmonds and DeAndre Hopkins being out, and James Conner nursing an injury that has held him out for the past two games, I don’t see them looking to put themselves in harm’s way all that much in this game. I’m not sure we see them bench their players, but I think we see a conservative approach from them as they look to gear up for a playoff run.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Zach Ertz
Fades: Kyler Murray
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Just like last week when quarterback Russell Wilson was possibly playing his final home game with the Seattle Seahawks, we can buy back into the narrative that he might be playing his final game at all as a member of the organization that drafted him. I’m clearly on board with him and his pass-catchers. I’m also a little concerned with the Arizona Cardinals’ offense in that, even with a huge win on the road against the Cowboys, the team isn’t scoring as much as it had in the first half of the year. I won’t avoid them completely — you simply can’t against the Seahawks’ terrible defense — but I won’t be too aggressive with them.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Rashaad Penny, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Zach Ertz
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are not many games on the slate that I am less interested in than this one. The Panthers offense has been a disaster of late, failing to score more than 21 points since Week 11 which coincidentally is the same duration they have gone without winning a game. Just two weeks ago they were dominated by this same Bucs team, and there is no reason to think they have a better showing in them this time around. The only thing on their side is the absence of many key players from the Buccaneers’ offense. The losses of Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are likely to be felt in a matchup with a good Panthers defense. At this point, with the division already locked up, I don’t see much of a reason for the Buccaneers to risk injuries to anyone else. I know they are unlikely to sit Tom Brady and the other starters, but they should consider it for their own good.
Targets: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Le’Veon Bell, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski and Buccaneers Defense
Fades: Panthers Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The matchup with the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is probably the ideal example of what makes the last week of the regular season so tricky. The Buccaneers and head coach Bruce Arians are notorious for being coy with their plans but, after the recent drama with wide receiver Antonio Brown, there are so many moving parts that there is no way to pinpoint how Tampa Bay handles the game. For the reason, if using multiple lineups, a full stack of the Buccaneers is probably a necessity. It is worth noting that the Panthers’ defense is still allowing the second-fewest yards-per-game and is certainly capable of shutting down Tampa Bay — either the version of starters or the backups that could see time.
Targets: Tom Brady, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Le’Veon Bell, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, DJ Moore, and both defenses
Fades: Most of Carolina’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As usually, the NFL has done a great job with scheduling as they set up the only true “win-and-get-in” game of the week as the Sunday Night Football game. While I give the Raiders a tremendous amount of credit for overcoming their endless obstacles in this crazy season to be in this position, they have been largely unimpressive since their bye week in Week 8. They have managed to survive, and that is great, but the Chargers are the better team, and they are playing better football. Given everything that is on the line with this matchup, I can’t justify anything other than trusting the team that should win comfortably. I am going to buck tradition, and finally buy into the Chargers winning a big game. I am looking for Justin Herbert to put an exclamation mark on his second season in a huge win that truly ushers in a new era of Chargers football.
Targets: Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller — if active– Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Justin Herbert
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In addition to the high likelihood of seeing a competitive game, there is almost no way we can look for a low-scoring affair between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders unless truly aiming for a ‘contrarian’ approach. Then again, the Raiders have not been the explosive team we saw in the first half of the season, but the Chargers’ aggressive nature is likely to bring out the best of Las Vegas’ offensive attack. We may not see 30 points from each team, but I’m building my Showdown lineups without defenses in mind and looking for the passing game to lead the way along with Austin Ekeler from Los Angeles.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Derek Carr, Zay Jones
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Hunter Renfrow and, if he plays, Darren Waller