While this week is nowhere near the juggled schedule of last week, we still have plenty of games that will impacted by COVID-19. As always, the goal is to target depth and find the players who will thrive in their respective games — especially those who are now pushed into larger roles.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There may be no team in the league that has been more confusing all season than the Detroit Lions — except for maybe the Atlanta Falcons. The Lions have easily one of the least talented rosters in the league, and in many games that has shown very clearly. Other times, we see them come out and dominate a very good Arizona Cardinals team. Overall, I can’t expect this team to put together back-to-back games like that one, so I’m leaning towards an Atlanta heavy game here. The flip side to that, however, is that it is nearly impossible to have faith in this Falcons team as they continue to find new ways to amaze us in all the wrong ways. I can’t get myself to commit heavily to this game, but a touch of exposure could be useful in a game with two bad defenses.
Targets: D’Andre Swift — if active — Jamaal Williams, Cordarelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts
Fades: Jared Goff and Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Break up the Detroit Lions! Not only did they win a game, but they won two. And the second victory was a thoroughly impressive thrashing of the Cardinals! As much as there may be a tinge of mockery in my tone, it actually was an impressive win for the Lions — how could it not be? The problem is that we cannot expect anything from Detroit in an encore. We can’t expect the team to crumble, and we can’t expect them to carry this win into another game. We can only expect…nothing. Still, there are buying opportunities against an Atlanta Falcons team is allowing the second-most points-per-game. The good news for the Falcons is that Detroit’s defense is allowing the fourth-most yards-per-game and ranks dead last in net-yards-per-pass-attempt. Atlanta’s offense is in-play for me on Sunday.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Cordarrelle Patterson, Russell Gage, Kyle Pitts, D’Andre Swift, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game — and really the entire AFC North — is about as interesting as it gets when it comes to the playoff push. The winner will find themselves alone in first place of the division while the loser will almost certainly be outside of the playoff picture. It is a near must-win game for both teams, and given the circumstances, I am leaning on Baltimore for the victory. Between the coaching staff and the players, they simply have more experience in these types of games, and I think that shows come Sunday. The other thing I like about Baltimore is that their current 3 game losing streak is something that many people will look at very negatively. The context of this losing streak is very important though — Lamar Jackson was out for roughly 7 quarters of game action between those 3 games, they lost the 3 games by a combined 4 points, and in two of those games, the scored a touchdown in the last minute and went for the 2-point conversation instead of playing for overtime, and failed both attempts. The Ravens are the better team, and they are playing better football despite what their current losing streak says.
Targets: Ravens Quarterback, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews and Tee Higgins
Fades: Joe Mixon
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In what-seems-like an ongoing story, the Baltimore Ravens may be without quarterback Lamar Jackson once again. Last week, I wrote about how important Jackson was for fantasy purposes — although I picked Baltimore against-the-spread because the number was bound to capture value with the Ravens — and it turned out that backup-turned-starting-quarterback Tyler Huntley was capable of leading a DFS roster. I’m not sure that a backup leads the team to victory again in a division game. Still, I am buying into the Ravens’ offense if Jackson is back, while limiting my exposure to tight end Mark Andrews if Jackson were to miss the game. I also can’t justify avoiding the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense completely with how it bludgeoned the Ravens the last time the two teams met, but I also expect a better showing defensively from Baltimore.
Targets: Lamar Jackson — if he plays — Marquise Brown, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and Ja’Marr Chase
Fades: None, but I would be careful with offense here
Must-Owns: Mark Andrews — if anyone besides Jackson starts
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Minnesota Vikings may be 7-7, and they may be currently occupying a playoff spot, but I still cannot buy into them. Since Week 5, the Vikings have traded two-game winning and losing streaks back and forth. They are fresh off back-to-back wins — against the Steelers and the Bears — but now their level of competition grows tremendously with games against the Rams and Packers in the next two weeks. After a bit of a rough stretch, the Rams are back to playing much better football during a current 3 game winning streak. I trust that Minnesota will do just enough to keep the game within reach — they only have one game all season that has been decided by more than 8 points — but the Rams should win and do so fairly easily.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Van Jefferson Jr., Odell Beckham Jr., Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson
Fades: Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing about how the Minnesota Vikings play tough games when faced with increased competition, but that doesn’t mean that it happens with ease. Really, the Vikings’ best strength is their ability to accumulate yards at a high pace — which, of course, is great for fantasy purposes. But we can’t ignore that Minnesota also struggles at stopping anyone, which should lead to a big day from the Los Angeles Rams’ offense. I’m sure it will be one of the more obvious games to use in DFS, but the first-glance read of the matchup between these two teams points directly to a big offensive day.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen — if healthy — Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Jr., and Sony Michel
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Bill Belichick joked about it after these two teams met, but the fact that the Patriots only attempted 3 passes in their last meeting may turn out to be a huge advantage for the Patriots in this rematch. The Bills defense has to fully commit to stopping the run, and in what should be better playing conditions, that should allow the Patriots to open up their playbook and expose this Bills defense once again. The Bills have had a roller coaster of a season, but I am not expecting them to go away quietly. With my expectations for the Patriots offense, and also thinking the Bills will compete, I am finding myself expecting a good offensive showdown in this game despite the fact that both of these teams are led by their defenses.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, Mac Jones, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s impossible to ignore what happened the last time the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots met on a football field. It was only a few weeks ago, and it featured winds so strong that it was nearly impossible for teams to attempt to pass, let alone complete said passes. Obviously, the weather is not expected to come anywhere near what we saw in that first meeting, and it should open the playbook for both teams. The Bills must be salivating at the opportunity to use an aerial attack once again and, even though that doesn’t necessarily mean it will work, it’s refreshing to have a full arsenal at their disposal. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick directly alluded to this following his prior win against Buffalo, but we can’t naively look for quarterback Mac Jones to start slinging the ball all over the field.
Targets: Josh Allen and Buffalo’s pass-catchers, Mac Jones, Damien Harris — if healthy — Rhamondre Stevenson — if healthy — and Jakobi Meyers
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I will be using players from the Bills in my lineups
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels wrong that in Week 16, a matchup of the top two overall picks in last year’s NFL Draft, both of whom are quarterbacks, can be so unappealing, but that is the world we are living in. It has been a massive struggle for both of these rookies, and while their situations are far from ideal, the entire football world had higher expectations for both quarterbacks. While the narrative of Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson facing off for the first time sounds nice, I simply cannot look at these two teams and care to invest much into this game. James Robinson was good for us last week, and will continue to have some appeal, but outside of him, I can’t suggest much in this one with any confidence.
Targets: James Robinson — assuming he is healthy — James O’Shaughnessy and Jamison Crowder
Fades: Trevor Larence and Zach Wilson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets may not feature playoff teams, but it is full of storylines. The first is the meeting between the top-two picks in last year’s NFL Draft. Neither has been impressive in his respective rookie season, but there is probably an element of pride associated with the head-to-head nature of the game. Therefore, either quarterback is in-play, even if the confidence levels are low. The other storyline is that Jets head coach Robert Sallah will miss the game with a positive COVID-19 test but again, it’s not easy to grasp how this will impact the team. Ultimately, I do find some appeal with the offenses, but it’s admittedly a shaky floor for both sides.
Targets: Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, Marvin Jones, Jr., Zach Wilson, Michael Carter, and Braxton Berrios
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Philadelphia Ealges
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have not been high on the Giants in quite some time, and that is not something that has come back to bite me in a long while. Since their Week 10 bye week, the Giants have averaged just under 12 points per game. Despite what seems like an offense with plenty of talent at the skill positions, poor offensive line and quarterback play has made the entire offense all but untouchable. They pulled off an upset victory over these same Eagles a few weeks ago, but with their seasons moving in opposite directions over the past few weeks, I am not expecting that again. The Eagles have a chance to solidify themselves in the NFC playoff race, and this is a must win game for them.
Targets: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Eagles Defense
Fades: Giants Passing Game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It seems more and more likely that Jake Fromm will be under center for the New York Giants, and he brings a level of intrigue and excitement simply because of how he finished last game in relief of Mike Glennon. The reality is that Fromm is more likely to produce a poor outing than a solid one, but I am never one to dismiss the potential of the unknown. I can justify using Fromm in a lineup, but only for the wild card that goes with trying to win a tournament. Otherwise, it’s hard to argue against the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense. Last time they played against the Giants, the Eagles were full of turnovers in what-was arguably the worst game Philadelphia has played all season. A better effort will produce a better result, and there’s no reason to think we won’t see said improvement.
Targets: Jake Fromm — if he starts — Kenny Golladay, and everyone from Philadelphia
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Buccaneers are coming off a complete dud of a game, and have seemingly lost half of their offense to injuries, and they are playing against a tough Carolina defense this week yet they are one of my favorite teams this week. Tom Brady is still elite, and a down game against the Saints was a predictable letdown game. Now, the Buccaneers are in a position where they can’t really afford another let down if they want to remain in the hunt for the number one seed in the NFC. Tom Brady is not one to have back-to-back bad games, so no matter who he has at his disposal this week, I fully expect Brady to turn in a big game this week against a Panthers team that is far from playing great football right now.
Targets: Ronald Jones II, any healthy Bucs Wide Receiver, Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers Defense and Robby Anderson
Fades: Cam Newton
Must-Owns: Tom Brady
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s no overthinking how we should handle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. They were just shutout in an impossibly uncharacteristic performance by the team’s offense under quarterback Tom Brady, and I will immediately target a rebound. Maybe the Buccaneers don’t explode, but they should have some success, despite the matchup with the Carolina Panthers’ stout defense. The reality is that the Buccaneers are so good against the run that they should force the Panthers to throw, which has not led to great outcomes for Carolina.
Targets: Everyone from Tampa Bay
Fades: Everyone from Carolina
Must-Owns: Ronald Jones II
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite a loss last week for the Chargers and a victory for the Texans, I am not going to be counting on that meaning anything this week. The Texans beat up on the Jaguars last week, which is the one team in the league that they seem to be good against. The Chargers on the other hand are coming off a tough loss in a close game against the red-hot Chiefs, so the context of last week matters greatly. Both teams are dealing with a good number of players of the Covid-19 reserve list, so it is hard to gauge which players will be available, but no matter what happens in that regard, the Chargers should win easily.
Targets: Justin Herbet, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Chargers Defense
Fades: The Texans
Must-Owns: Justin Jackson (if Austin Ekeler is out)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just wrote that I won’t overthink the Buccaneers, so I have to take the same approach with the Los Angeles Chargers. Indeed, the Houston Texans have shown some life lately, but the defense is still in the bottom-five for points and yards allowed. In addition, the “lately” to which I am referring was also against the hapless Jaguars. The Chargers are in a completely separate class, and could pummel Houston from start-to-finish. That does give some intrigue to using Houston’s passing game, though, and it’s no longer an impossible task for Davis Mills to create some value for his wide receivers.
Targets: Davis Mills, Nico Collins, and everyone from the Chargers
Fades: Everyone else from Houston
Must-Owns: Justin Jackson — if Austin Ekeler is out
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have had this game earmarked as an easy victory for the Seahawks in the crazy world in which they still stood an outside chance to climb back into the playoff chase. With their latest loss, another all around unimpressive game, those chances are all but dead, and with that so are my expectations. The Seahawks have disappointed for essentially this entire season, and I just can’t count on them anymore. On the flip side, they are facing a Bears team that is about as unreliable as it comes, so what happens in this game is anyone’s guess. With nothing to lose for either team, and plenty of learning to do for their futures, it seems oddly possible that this game delivers some offense and fantasy excitement in an otherwise meaningless situation.
Targets: Darnell Mooney and Russell Wilson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: David Montgomery and Tyler Lockett
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s so easy to dismiss the Chicago Bears — especially for DFS purposes — but the reality is that the Bears and Seattle Seahawks are not far off from one another in the numbers. If anything, Chicago’s defense is the clear leader among the possible groups, and that could lead us in one-of-two directions. Either we avoid Seattle because of it — and I think I will — or we can actually trust some of Chicago’s offensive players. That idea is certainly not comforting, but the matchup is there, and we usually need to take some risks if we want to try to win a tournament. That, and we have the element of the unknown potential that comes with Nick Foles being announced as the team’s starter for Sunday.
Targets: Tyler Lockett, Nick Foles, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chicago’s defense
Fades: Everyone else from Seattle
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We are always big believers in the Kansas City Chiefs, and that faith carried us through the dark stages of the beginning of the season and got us to the present time where they sit atop the AFC once again. With that said, the Chiefs have three major things working against them this week: Their 7-game winning streak has carried on very impressively, but win streaks like this become harder and harder to maintain, so a loss is coming sooner rather than later. Secondly, they are facing off with a Steelers team that refuses to go away, no matter how mediocre they are, and they are extremely mediocre. Lastly, the Chiefs have a slew of players sitting on the Covid-19 reserve list right now, including Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. No matter who is present for this game, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Chiefs will struggle to take care of business this week, but if they are without multiple top players, that makes a Steelers victory that much more possible and even likely.
Targets: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Clyde Edwards-Helarie and Byron Pringle
Fades: Patrick Mahomes — not full fade, but compared to his typical lofty expectations
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I can’t start this writeup anywhere other than highlighting the potential of both wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce missing Sunday’s game for the Kansas City Chiefs. After all, the Chiefs’ offense against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense — which, admittedly, has been nowhere near as dominant as it had been in the past — is the star matchup of the show. On the other side of the ball, we continue to see that the Steelers won’t go away without a fight, but it’s also painfully obvious that the team has no offense of which it can speak. The good news — as I write almost every week — is that whatever offense it does have funnels through running back Najee Harris and wide receiver Diontae Johnson.
Targets: Ben Roethlisberger, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, DeMarcus Robinson, and Josh Gordon — if Tyreek Hill is out
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Mecole Hardman or Byron Pringle — if both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are out
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Raiders have hardly been playing good football of late, but they have managed to remain relevant in the AFC nonetheless. Over their past 7 games, the Raiders have scored more than 16 points just one time, and are a measly 2-5 over those 7 games. Despite that, they sit at 7-7 for the season, and very much alive in the playoff race. Against my better instincts, I am expecting them to win again this week, but that has more to do with Denver than anything the Raiders have been doing lately. I am not the biggest believer in Teddy Bridgewater in terms of leading a team on a playoff run, but he has clearly proven to be more reliable in this offense than Drew Lock has over the previous few seasons. In Bridgewater’s absence, my expectations are very low for this Broncos offense which has me picturing a low-scoring, ugly victory for the Raiders.
Targets: Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon III, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow and Raiders Defense
Fades: Drew Lock
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The top storyline for the AFC West matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos is that Drew Lock will be under center for the Broncos and he has shown absolutely nothing to this point in his career. It’s absolutely possible that he puts everything together for a single game and delivers, but I’m not buying in based on speculation. I do expect Denver’s defense to keep the team in the game — so that lower’s the Raiders’ offensive ceiling — but I’m essentially moving on from this matchup and finding DFS targets elsewhere.
Targets: Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller — if he plays — and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else on offense
Must-Owns: None
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Washington made things interesting for a few weeks during their four-game winning streak, but that seems like a distant memory already. They lost four games before that, and have lost back-to-back division games since then as well. Overall, they have been playing largely mediocre football on both sides of the ball so the recent slide is unsurprising. Between their offensive struggles and all of the Covid-19 cases they have had, any faith they may have instilled earlier has withered away. The Cowboys asserted their dominance against Washington just two weeks ago, and since then, nothing has changed to make me expect a different outcome.
Targets: Terry McLaurin, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper
Fades: Washington Quarterback — whoever winds up starting for them this week.
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Washington Football Team put up a fight toward the end of their last game against the Dallas Cowboys, but let’s not forget that Dallas dominated nearly the entire contest. Washington’s defense has been better in the latter weeks of the season but, just like the previous game against the Cowboys, it feels like no effort is complete enough to make any actual noise. Dallas’ offense is the key play of the night, where you can, of course, go ‘contrarian’ with Washington’s skill position players.
Targets: Everyone from Dallas, Antonio Gibson — if healthy — and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Mostly everyone else from Washington
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have seen some tremendously inconsistent football from these two teams, and at times both teams have looked completely unwatchable. Despite some struggles, both teams are sitting at 7-7 and fighting for a playoff spot. To make things more interesting, the Saints’ top-two quarterbacks are expected to be out this week, leaving them with Ian Book who will be making his NFL debut in a critical game on Monday Night Football. The strength of both of these teams is their defense, but the simple fact of the matter is that the Saints defense is better, and playing with an incredible amount of confidence having allowed 9 points over their last 2 games including 0 against the Buccaneers. I fully expect the Saints to keep things very simple for Book in his debut by leaning heavily on the duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II. With the Dolphins defense ranking 19th in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt, I like the Saints chances of grinding their way to victory by keeping the ball on the ground and playing good defense.
Targets: Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Mark Ingram II and Saints Defense
Fades: Myles Gaskin
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The main storyline for Monday Night Football is the COVID-related absences of both quarterbacks on the New Orleans Saints’ roster and how it will force rookie Ian Book into his first game action. Not his first start. His first appearance in the National Football League. I actually love it. Book was drafted as a potential longterm solution for the Saints, and he has quiet upside with low expectations. This obviously does give value to the Miami Dolphins’ defense — which has turned back into the turnover-machine of last year — but I can’t completely buy in with Miami’s offense. We have seen — including and especially last week — the Saints’ defense take over a game when the offense fails to do anything, and that’s a possibility again on Monday night.
Targets: Ian Book, Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and both defenses
Fades: Tua Tagovailoa
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara