Last year, we repeatedly wrote about the amount of uncertainty that was present on a weekly basis due to COVID-19. For the majority of this season, we haven’t had nearly the same level of scheduling changes — or player absences — because of COVID, but that is no longer the case. It feels like more games in Week 15 are affected by COVID than not, so proceed with the understanding that this week’s set of contests is as fluid as we have ever seen.

Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 15 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.

Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.

Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the exception of their game against the Jaguars, the Bills have had relatively easy wins against every bad team they have faced this season. Despite the return of Cam Newton, the Panthers offense is simply not good, and the Bills defense is likely to eat them up as they have against other struggling offenses. The Bills should bounce back from their latest loss and come away with an easy win in this one. 

Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and Bills Defense

Fades: Panthers Offense

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The introduction of this column highlights the amount of question marks we have entering the weekend, but it mainly focused on COVID-related situations. The Buffalo Bills have their own uncertainty, as quarterback Josh Allen is dealing with a traditional injury. Obviously, his presence is critical in terms of fantasy success, but I would actually jump at the opportunity to use backup Mitch Trubisky in a lineup if Allen can’t play. Otherwise, I have no problem leaning on the Bills and their offense, despite how well the Carolina Panthers have played defensively. Carolina has simply run out of gas and, outside of a pass-catcher — because of the game script in which the Panthers will likely be throwing — I don’t see much allure.

Targets: Everyone from Buffalo

Fades: Everyone from Carolina

Must-Owns: None, but it is probably imperative to have some exposure to Buffalo’s offense

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I said last week, I am going to do my best to not overthink things at this point of the season as we have more and more information on each team. With that in mind, I am just going to move on with the complete expectation that the Cardinals dominate this matchup. They may be without DeAndre Hopkins, but his loss can be managed — for this week at least — against a Lions team that is still going to be missing many of their top offensive players. The only trouble for this game is identifying which Cardinals players are going to get the volume to return value in a game that they likely won’t want to risk injury to the top remaining players. 

Targets: Kyler Murray, James Conner — assuming he is active — A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz and Cardinals Defense

Fades: The Lions

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It didn’t take long for us to reach our first game in which COVID will play a role, although the team most impacted already saw how difficult it was to win with a limited roster. In fairness, the Detroit Lions have found it nearly impossible to win with their best roster, so we can’t expect much for them in a game with fewer options. The only potential value to a fantasy manager is simply that the volume might funnel through the handful of healthy targets, but even that doesn’t inspire much confidence. This simply means that everyone on the Arizona Cardinals is in-play because of the increased opportunities they should have on offense.

Targets: Everyone from Arizona

Fades: Everyone from Detroit

Must-Owns: James Conner — if he is active

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is a rare occurrence that I would advocate for targeting a game that features the 22nd and 29th best offenses — in terms of total yards — and this will not be one of those times. Both of these offenses have struggled heavily throughout the year, and both offenses are currently loaded with players that are out due to injury or COVID protocols. These absences could open up value for some cheap players in this game, but overall, this is not a game to focus too much attention on for fantasy purposes. 

Targets: Jamison Crowder, Mike Gesicki and Dolphins Defense

Fades: Zach Wilson and Tua Tagovailoa

Must-Owns: DeVante Parker — assuming Jaylen Waddle is out

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Jets’ offense has been so bad all season that almost no matchup will be in their favor. That’s especially true on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, but let’s be fair to the competitive nature of the National Football League. The Jets shouldn’t simply roll over and get trampled by the Dolphins without a fight. There will be some offense and, if we look back to the last time the two teams met, Joe Flacco led New York to 17 points and 380 yards of offense. As the season draws to a close, the Jets need to lean on rookie quarterback Zach Wilson to find some positive momentum into next year, and he has a nice opportunity to show promise against a Miami defense that ranks 21st in yards allowed. Of course, New York sits dead last in points allowed, so there’s no reason to avoid anyone from the Dolphins.

Targets: Zach Wilson, Michael Carter — if healthy — Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, Sr., Ryan Griffin, Tua Tagovailoa, Myles Gaskin, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: None

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this stage of the season it is safe to say that the Giants have thrown away yet another year and will have some very big decisions to make coming up soon. Right now, there is nothing about this team that is working, and while I would love to predict an upset from a division rival at home, I just don’t see how they can get that done. The Cowboys have the better matchup at seemingly every position and should be able to cruise to another victory as they move closer to clinching the NFC East title. 

Targets: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz and Cowboys Defense

Fades: The Giants

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the underrated storylines that I have been mentioned wherever possible is the Dallas Cowboys playing their third consecutive road game. It’s not ideal and, while it probably doesn’t result in the team losing — they are facing the pathetic New York Giants, after all — there could be some fatigue that plays a role. That, and the divisional element against a Giants team that has repeatedly been beaten up by Dallas could produce a tougher fight than the Cowboys would have expected. It’s not enough for me to move away from Dallas’ players entirely, but I would be careful. I may use a player from the Giants in my lineups as well, but with caution.

Targets: Ezekiel Elliott — especially if Tony Pollard is out — CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and both defenses

Fades: Both quarterbacks

Must-Owns: None

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This should come as no surprise, but I am continuing to buy into the Steelers. For starters, the Titans really have not been playing well since Derrick Henry went down. Without their star running back, the offense has struggled, and absences of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have not helped. The Steelers defense is not what we are used to this season, but they should be up to the task against this struggling Titans team. On the flip side, I actually love all of the drama that has come out of Pittsburgh following their last game due to Chase Claypool’s antics. Normally, I would see it is an issue, but if there is a coach in the NFL that can take something like that and rally his team around it, it is Mike Tomlin. 

Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Julio Jones, Ben Roethlisberger, Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson

Fades: None

Must-Owns: Chase Claypool

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers may be at relatively full strength on Sunday, but the glaring hole left behind by running back Derrick Henry’s injury cannot go understated. It proved to be a non-factor against the Jaguars in a completely unsurprising result, but we are getting into the later months of the year where the inability to lean on the Titans’ best player is likely going to be a problem. The good news for Tennessee is that it will face a Steelers offense that ranks sixth-worst in yards-per-game. Thankfully for those of us who are making lineups, the plays do tend to funnel through a specific handful of players, so we can direct our attention there. And “attention” is an important word, as wide receiver Chase Claypool pointed the spotlight on him at an inopportune time last week, and he will carry an additional storyline because of it. Pittsburgh’s head coach, Mike Tomlin, is known to be a ‘Player’s Coach,’ and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Claypool get a few extra looks to remind fans to focus on his talent and not his post-play actions.

Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Julio Jones, Nick Wesbrook-Ikhine, Ben Roethlisberger, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: Chase Claypool

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jaguars have finally rid themselves of Urban Meyer, and maybe, just maybe that will allow this team to relax a bit and finally play one good football game. The development of Trevor Lawrence is beyond critical, and with Meyer’s distraction out of the way, the team should be able to prioritize that. With that said, James Robinson is actually my favorite play of the week. The Jaguars should beat Houston — who is clearly not interested in winning games anymore — so Robinson has the game script. The Jaguars defense allows more rush yards per game than any team in the league, and Urban Meyer clearly had a problem with Robinson, but it would not be surprising for an interim head coach to come in and lean heavily on the run game in their debut as it is the safest offense you can run. 

Targets: Brandin Cooks, Trevor Lawrence and Marvin Jones Jr.

Fades: Davis Mills

Must-Owns: James Robinson

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the on-field action might border on pathetic and unwatchable, the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars have no shortage of storylines, and I will gladly dive into them both for this writeup and for my lineup-building purposes. The obvious starting point is Jacksonville’s firing of head coach Urban Meyer. Not only was the metaphorical writing on the wall for quite some time, but the situation continued to deteriorate. Considering the Jaguars just drafted one of the best quarterback prospects in years, it was simply unacceptable that the offense would operate so poorly. That leads to the next storyline, where Jacksonville is clearly in a position where we could buy as it plays host to one of the worst teams in the league in the Texans. I am definitely leaning on quarterback Trevor Lawrence in some lineups, as we should finally see the Jaguars operating without the weight of Meyer’s antics looming overhead.

Targets: Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, James Robinson, Marvin Jones, Jr., and Jaguars defense

Fades: Davis Mills

Must-Owns: Trevor Lawrence

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every week I seem to touch on the inconsistency of the Cincinnati Bengals, and every week they continue to be a wild card around the NFL. Coming off back-to-back losses, I have to think we see the best version of the Bengals against a beatable Broncos team that is coming off a game against the Lions. One of my biggest issues with Denver this week is that both of their running backs are dealing with injuries and are questionable to play. While it is possible both wind up active, I can’t like this offense if those two are at less than 100% as they are the key to everything the Broncos do offensively. I think we will see a big Bengals victory in Denver this week. 

Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Bengals Defense and Jerry Jeudy

Fades: Teddy Bridgewater

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cincinnati Bengals are in a weird position on Sunday. They continue to struggle in big spots, but also refuse to get buried in the playoff race — and in a tough division. The Denver Broncos are not exactly elite, but their defense can carry the team to a win at home against Cincinnati. That’s why this is, as I wrote, a “weird position.” The Bengals basically reach the 20-point mark in every game and, if they can do that, they will have some fantasy appeal in a matchup that looks bad. I’m also down on the Broncos’ offense — as I have been all year — and have continued to write that Cincinnati’s defense is quietly better than many realize. Therefore, this is a nice matchup for a sneaky game by the Bengals on both sides of the ball.

Targets: Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Jerry Jeudy, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Bengals defense

Fades: Everyone else from Denver’s offense

Must-Owns: None, but I will definitely be using players from Cincinnati in my lineups

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Falcons are somehow in the midst of the playoff rush, but if you look back at their season, they have not beaten one good team all year. They rank 24th in the league in total yards on offense and defense, and may be the worst team in the league that is still in the playoff hunt. I think this week is going to be a reality check for Atlanta against a 49ers team that is playing consistently solid football right now. Against this Falcons defense, I don’t expect the 49ers to ask a ton of Jimmy Garoppolo, and that is usually when their offense is at its best. 

Targets: Cordarrelle Patterson, Jeff Wilson Jr., George Kittle and 49ers Defense

Fades: Matt Ryan

Must-Owns: Deebo Samuel

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We always look for teams or games that will be ignored, and I am quite sure that, given the options throughout Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons will be near the bottom of most people’s list of targets. I won’t load up on players from Atlanta, but Cordarrelle Patterson has become so important for the Falcons that I want to make sure he is some of my lineups. Atlanta has intrigue, so I probably won’t stop at Patterson, but I also won’t go overboard. Otherwise, the usual key suspects from the San Francisco 49ers remain top plays.

Targets: Jeff Wilson, Jr., Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Matt Ryan, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts — who, for his reasonable price, is approaching ‘must-own’ territory

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: Cordarrelle Patterson

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You should know by now that I am not always the biggest believer in the Baltimore Ravens, but I weirdly believe they are going to beat the Packers this week, and I feel that way whether Lamar Jackson is active or not. The Packers offense has been absolutely dominant for the last month, but every team in the league has a hiccup eventually, and a game in Baltimore against the well coached Ravens feels like a predictable hiccup. On the flip side, I was moderately impressed by Tyler Huntley last week, and think this offense can survive one more game without their star quarterback. The quick growth of Rashod Bateman also gives this offense three legitimate weapons in the passing game which is going to help them out tremendously moving forward.

Targets: Davante Adams, Ravens quarterback and Mark Andrews

Fades: Aaron Rodgers — relative to his normal expectations — and Packers Running Backs

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It looks like the status of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson won’t be official until just before gametime, and it means that we have to plan for both outcomes — one where he plays and one where he doesn’t. His presence is clearly that important to a team that is getting dangerously close to slipping out of the playoff picture altogether. There is a possibility that Baltimore’s defense steps up and limits the Green Bay Packers, but that hasn’t happened to Green Bay’s offense in weeks. Then again, the Packers are extremely overextended offensively, and it might be wise to look elsewhere for some offense on Sunday.

Targets: Davante Adams, Lamar Jackson — if he plays — Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Baltimore’s defense — if looking for an inexpensive, ‘contrarian’ play

Fades: Aaron Rodgers — obviously, cautiously

Must-Owns: None

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saints have largely struggled this season since they lost Jameis Winston, but they have been Tom Brady’s kryptonite since he came to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have been cruising along with 4 consecutive 30-point games — all of which were victories — and stand a very good chance to claim the top spot in the NFC. With all of that said, wouldn’t the Saints finding some way to slow them down and beat them just be the perfectly predictable and unbelievable thing that we can always count on in the NFL? The Saints offense right now is really just Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara, but if they are able to sustain drives and keep the Buccaneers’ offense off the field, their defense is still good enough to make some noise. It isn’t going to be pretty, but I am looking for a Saints upset here. 

Targets: Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, Saints Defense, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski

Fades: Tom Brady

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In prior matchups between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, I had mentioned two possible negatives that work against the Buccaneers’ offense. The first is that the team had been surprisingly inefficient in Primetime games, where it was definitely wasn’t bad, but just failed to reach its regular level of excellence. The second was that New Orleans’ defense has limited quarterback Tom Brady and Tampa Bay’s offense in the past, so it can happen again. I’m moving past those concerns for Sunday night, as the Buccaneers are hitting their stride with four consecutive victories, each of which consisted of scoring at least 30 points. If you want a ‘contrarian’ plan-of-attack for the game, then lean on the Saints’ defense and avoid Tampa Bay’s offense — while obviously using some targets from New Orleans. Otherwise, fill the Primetime or Showdown lineups with Buccaneers.

Targets: Tom Brady, Ronald Jones II — with Leonard Fournette currently dealing with an injury — Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Taysom Hill, and Alvin Kamara

Fades: Pass-catchers from New Orleans

Must-Owns: None

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but you simply cannot trust the Minnesota Vikings. They came out and asserted their dominance on the Steelers in their last game, only to throw it away and nearly allow a massive comeback to one of the worst offenses in the league. Every time you want to buy in, they break your heart, and a Primetime game on Monday night against the hapless Bears is the ultimate spot for them to show off their heartbreak. The Bears showed some life against the Packers last week, but ultimately could not keep up in the marathon. I don’t see this game turning into that marathon, so I like their chances to steal a win.

Targets: Justin Jefferson, Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney

Fades: Kirk Cousins

Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the amount of moving parts and a handful of great matchups scattered throughout Week 15, the Monday Night Football showdown between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings has some nice value. Unfortunately, said value isn’t on the offensive side of the ball. It is, of course, completely possible for the Vikings to pull away from the Bears, but that actually has a positive outcome for both teams’ offense — since Minnesota rarely limits opponents from moving the ball. Most likely, the game is a low-scoring slugfest where defense leads the way.

Targets: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen — if he plays — and both defenses

Fades: Kirk Cousins

Must-Owns: David Montgomery

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles – Game Moved to Tuesday

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Washington may have been granted two extra days to prepare for this game, but with all of the chaos they have been experiencing this week, I simply can’t have high expectations for them. Their win streak came to an ugly end last week and extended what was largely mediocre play despite the winning. The Eagles offense should be able to take advantage of a solid matchup in this one, but our interest in them is always capped. Washington’s passing game will have the right game script to attack, but it is hard to commit given their recent play and their uncertainty in who will be available. This game will not count on the main Sunday slate anymore, so be sure to remove these players from your lineup until Tuesday’s contests.

Targets: Terry McLaurin, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Eagles Defense — depending on which quarterback Washington plays

Fades: Whichever Washington Quarterback plays

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the Washington Football Team and Philadelphia Eagles now playing on Tuesday, we have to take a slightly different approach. The good news is that the general gameplan doesn’t change, and only the names should be updated as we get closer to kickoff. The Football Team still wants to lean on its defense, but it had let it down so often early in the year that it was forced to take a more offensive approach. That worked until it didn’t. The Eagles’ defense is certainly good enough to slow it down, but there is potential from both offenses based on which players are actually available for the game. In short, I’m leaning toward seeing some scoring on Tuesday, where the limited options should actually gain a boost because of fewer competition for touches.

Targets: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Antonio Gibson, and Terry McLaurin

Fades: None, but it’s hard to target too many players from Washington given the uncertainty

Must-Owns: None

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams – Game Moved to Tuesday

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is no longer taking place on Sunday, and will not count towards Sunday’s contests, but it is still a critical game. The Rams are back in the thick of the race for the number 1 seed in the NFC after their victory over the Cardinals, and the Seahawks, with a couple easy games following this one, are somehow not totally dead in the hunt for the Wild Card. Both of these teams are dealing with a slew of COVID cases, so it is nearly impossible to gauge how they will look, but as long as Russell Wilson is out there, I am giving the Seahawks a chance to pull off another upset this week. All targets and fades for this game are pending news on who will actually be active for this game. 

Targets: Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson Jr.

Fades: Rams Defense

Must-Owns: Russell Wilson

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams are the latest teams to have their game moved, and they will share the spotlight on Tuesday night with Philadelphia and Washington. Like the aforementioned NFC East battle, this NFC West showdown is equally filled with uncertainty. The good news for those of us trying to build a lineup is that both teams utilize their specific gameplan regardless of personnel, so we can expect that again and simply slot in the players as we get news regarding their respective statuses. That means the Rams will feed wide receiver Cooper Kupp, mix in as many healthy pass-catchers as possible, and run the ball relentlessly when it can. Seattle will throw to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett where, if Lockett isn’t cleared to return, then Metcalf becomes a ‘must-start.’

Targets: Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett — obviously, if he is cleared to return — Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Jr. — if he plays — Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Jr. — if he plays — and Van Jefferson, Jr.

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf — if Lockett is out — and Sony Michel — only if Darrell Henderson, Jr. is out