The large slates have so many teams in action that it’s usually unlikely to land on a specific trend at this stage of the analysis — where one may emerge when we are actually putting together our lineups and DFS picks. Still, it does seem like, as we wrote through Week 14’s matchups, offense tends to lead the way. The even better news? It can come from some of the games that might be less popular at first glance.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 14 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We are just two weeks removed from a Ravens and Browns pillow fight, and the Browns are coming off a bye week allowing them to be that much more prepared for Baltimore this time around. Both of these offenses have been struggling mightily with the Ravens failing to reach 20 points in 4 straight games and the Browns scoring a total of 30 points over their last three games. With these teams being very familiar with one another, I fail to see how these offenses are going to break out of their current slumps.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Kareem Hunt
Fades: All Wide Receivers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The immediate storyline that comes to mind when I think about the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns meeting on Sunday is the most recent matchup between the two teams. When was that? That’s right, just two weeks ago. In fact, it was the last game that Cleveland played before a bye week. It was also one of the ugliest games we have witnessed in quite some time. That’s actually a positive. There’s a decent chance that people will lean on the simple outcome of expecting a repeat performance — where they won’t use many players from the game, thus leaving them under-owned — but, even if the two teams are somewhat popular, we can look to the Browns and their extended preparation as justification to jump aboard. Cleveland has essentially been working toward this game for multiple weeks, and that should lead to a better outing than what we last saw.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Lamar Jackson, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is now Week 14, and we are staring at one of the most disappointing seasons imaginable from a team featuring one of the top quarterbacks prospects ever. The Jaguars have not scored more than 17 points in a game since Week 6 and have scored no more than 23 points in a game all season long. The Titans were struggling themselves heading into their bye week, but they are a far superior team that is far better coached. At this point, I am done chasing a big game from Jacksonville unless they suddenly find some improvement that hasn’t appeared all season. I expect an easy victory for the Titans here.
Targets: Dontrell Hilliard, D’Onta Foreman, Julio Jones and Titans Defense
Fades: Jaguars
Must-Owns: None, but only because the split between Hilliard and Foreman is hard to gauge.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the Tennessee Titans obviously won’t have running back Derrick Henry available, will they do anything other than try to replicate Henry’s success against the Jacksonville Jaguars? Probably not. And that includes the fact that Jacksonville’s run defense is its main strength — quite possibly its only strength. As I always write, the Jaguars’ likelihood of playing from behind also increases the team’s volume in the passing game, but it hasn’t produced enough for me to be aggressive in adding any wide receivers to my lineup.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Dontrell Hilliard, D’Onta Foreman, Julio Jones, and Trevor Lawrence
Fades: Everyone else from Jacksonville
Must-Owns: None, but I will be using Tannehill and the two Titans running backs in some lineups
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As we get this deep into the season, I try to not create too many storylines and just let the trends speak for themselves. In 4 of the Raiders last 5 games, they have scored between 13 and 16 points, and the one other game was a crazy Thanksgiving day game which was the perfect outlier setup. This Raiders offense simply is not working, and it does not help them that the Chiefs defense has turned their season around in a major way. After a putrid start to the season, the Chiefs have allowed more than 17 points just one time in their last 7 games, and it was the one loss they’ve had in that stretch. Their defense has been carrying them in terms of the scoring output, but let’s also still acknowledge the fact that despite all the stories of the Chiefs offense being broken, they still rank 3rd in the league in yards. They may not be perfect this season, but this offense is going to do more than enough this week to support their continually improving defense as they continue to clamp down on the AFC West division lead.
Targets: Josh Jacobs, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Travis Kelce
Fades: Derek Carr
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The storyline surrounding the Kansas City Chiefs continues to focus on their offense. Specifically, the ongoing question as to whether-or-not there is “something wrong” with the Chiefs’ offense. And, as I write weekly, there is actually nothing wrong with the team. Maybe it won’t explode, but I simply won’t ignore the potential that the offense carries on a consistent basis. The Las Vegas Raiders have been inconsistent in their own right, scoring no more than 16 points in four-of-their-last-five games. That presents a problem against a Chiefs defense that has played far better of late — allowing 17 points or fewer in five consecutive games. Regardless of the Raiders’ trend, I’m still looking to buy into the offense on Sunday in some capacity. Las Vegas remains in the top-ten for yards-per-game, and the familiarity in this matchup presents a sneaky opportunity for the team to have some success.
Targets: Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Foster Moreau, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Jets are not a good football team, and they are set to be without their top 2 running backs and 2 of their top 3 wide receivers. Considering they have had a bottom tier offense all season, they are set to struggle mightily against a solid Saints defense. With the Saints defense likely to dominate this game, Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara should be able to control this game easily by running the ball all over the defense that ranks last in the league in yards and points allowed. The Saints have not won a game that Jameis Winston did not start, but they should get an easy win this week.
Targets: Taysom Hill
Fades: The Jets
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara and Saints Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, Alvin Kamara is expected to return to action for the New Orleans Saints, and he is an absolute ‘must-start’ for me. Of course, if we get news that suggests he won’t be able to play, then I’ll scale out of Kamara and simply into Mark Ingram. The point is that the Saints have struggled of late and couldn’t find wins anywhere. A trip to face the New York Jets is probably the cure for such an issue and, in addition to Kamara, the most likely route to such a win would be New Orleans’ defense. Ultimately, I’m out on everyone from the Jets.
Targets: Anyone from the Saints, including the defense
Fades: Anyone from the Jets, including the defense
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Mike McCarthy may have guaranteed victory for the Cowboys, but considering his team is a noticeable favorite, and significantly better on paper, that “guarantee” just feels silly to make. Washington is riding a four game win streak, and while those games have been far from pretty, they have gotten the job done. I think they may be able to pull off yet another upset this week, but I don’t love their defense’s chances of slowing down Dallas, so their offense is going to have to be up to the task. It may not jump out to most right away, but I like this game to be one of the better fantasy producers of the entire weekend.
Targets: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott — primarily if Tony Pollard is out or expected to be limited
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I cannot stress how much I abhor the comments by Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy where he directly stated that his team will beat the Washington Football Team on Sunday. It may not matter in the end, but it adds an odd element of personalization to a big game. Perhaps the takeaway here is that, if Washington were to be leading late, it might continue to send a message to Dallas. That’s probably just conjecture, but I’d like to take a chance with some offense players from the Football Team, especially against a defense that ranks sixth-worst in yards-per-game. Otherwise, I am fine with using some offensive players from the Cowboys, as they lead the league in yards-per-game.
Targets: Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite some high end talent, the Atlanta Falcons continue to give us borderline nothing on offense. They rank outside the top 20 in total yards, points scored, net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt. Couple that with a matchup against a very stout Panthers defense, and there is simply no reason to chase the Falcons offense this week outside of possibly Cordarelle Patterson who continues to amaze. The Panthers have the much better matchup on offense, and are coming off a bye week following a horrible game against the Dolphins. I still don’t love this offense, especially with Christian McCaffrey out for the season, but this game sets up well for them to turn in a decent showing on both sides of the ball.
Targets: Cordarrelle Patterson, Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore and Panthers Defense
Fades: Matt Ryan
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s one thing to be a bad team and play predictably bad matchups. It’s another to be the Atlanta Falcons or Carolina Panthers and not actually show that you are a bad team, but still refuse to do well. Put another way, can we have any confidence in anything either team will do on Sunday? Absolutely not. But, if we are trying to win a tournament, that’s why we should look here for some targets. Granted, Carolina’s defense is one of the best in the league, so I’m probably drifting toward the Panthers’ offense more than Atlanta’s.
Targets: Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, Cam Newton — cautiously, as there is no guarantee that he plays every offensive snap — Chuba Hubbard, and D.J. Moore
Fades: Mostly everyone else
Must-Owns: None, but Patterson will be in a few lineups for me
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One week after all but giving up on the Seahawks, I am here to say I think they win in a landslide this week. In my defense, the quick 180 degree turnaround has far more to do with their opponent than the Seahawks themselves. The Texans have been all but horrible all season, and with Davis Mills under center, they have been beyond horrible. With Mills being the starter for the rest of the season, my expectations on this offense will remain at zero — especially with Brandin Cooks dealing with a bad back at the moment. I don’t expect the Seahawks offense to be great, but the opportunities they should be gifted will be enough to make them worth targeting.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Gerald Everett and Seahawks Defense
Fades: The Texans
Must-Owns: Rashaad Penny — I may regret this heavily, but I have a feeling we see a big game from Penny here
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Well, it’s Davis Mills again for the Houston Texans. Time to start the Seattle Seahawks’ defense and not look back. Then again, we can’t overlook the fact that Seattle, as a whole, is really one of the worst teams in the league. Personally, I find this hard to accept because of how much faith I put in quarterback Russell Wilson on a regular basis, but the numbers don’t lie, and they point to Seattle serving as a punching bag this year. The good news for the Seahawks is that the Texans have lived as their own punching bag for long enough that Seattle should still be fine. In the end, I’m probably not using too many offensive players from this game.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Alex Collins, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett, Nico Collins, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else from Houston
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the makeup of these two teams, I really can’t have faith in any prediction for this game, but I know there is not a lot to love here offensively. The Broncos offense is a giant by-committee approach with an all around low ceiling. The Lions, who have had one of the worst offenses all season, will likely be without their three best players in D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams and T.J. Hockenson. With all of that in mind, it is all but impossible to like anything about this game other than the defenses and Javonte Williams with Melvin Gordon III still at less than 100% health.
Targets: Jermar Jefferson, Javonte Williams and Broncos Defense
Fades: Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am convinced that others are convinced that the Detroit Lions’ lone victory will lead to a completely effortless performance against the Denver Broncos and their stout defense. I am also convinced that “others” are wrong. Maybe Detroit won’t surge offensively — because it never really surges offensively — but I am not shying away from the few playmakers on the team. Really, I’m leaning on the defense more than any other area of the matchup, as it should limit what the Broncos and their 20th-ranked offense in yards-per-game.
Targets: Javonte Williams — who would be a ‘must-own’ if you are expecting a big win by the Broncos — Jerry Jeudy, Jared Goff, Jermar Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and both defenses
Fades: Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chargers blowing out the Bengals in Cincinnati last week was one of our absolute favorite picks of the week last week. Now, they get a home matchup against a totally inept Giants team, so you can go ahead and book a majorly disappointing game from them. They will likely hold on for a victory, but it is impossible to have faith in them repeating last week’s success, as they just have no history of sustaining the type of elite play that they are capable of. The Giants offense has reached a high of 302 total yards in their last 7 games which is a painful reality for Giants fans. With their continued injury struggles, I cannot expect that trend to suddenly turn around this week.
Targets: Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, and Mike Williams
Fades: Mike Glennon
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The outlook is quite bleak for the New York Giants as they travel west to face the Los Angeles Chargers with… no one. The good news is that, if we are making a lineup with someone from the Giants, the offense should funnel through the few players who are actually healthy. That’s also true for the Chargers, as they may be down both wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, while running back Austin Ekeler is dealing with an injury. Once again, the fact that the teams have limited players actually helps us not decide between targets in a widespread offense. That is, unless the defenses take charge, which is completely possible.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay — if he is healthy — Sterling Shepard — if he is healthy and Golladay is out — and both defenses
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the things that I dread most about fantasy football is teams that are wildly inconsistent. With that in mind, let’s discuss two teams that fit that mold very nicely. The 49ers are going to be without their top running back, and Deebo Samuel may or may not be available after missing last week’s game. The Bengals defense is coming off arguably their worst game of the season, but they have been solid all season, and should be able to mostly handle this beat up 49ers offense. The Bengals offense certainly has its upside, but the 49ers defense is the 6th best in the league in total yards, so I don’t see a huge game coming from them especially with Joe MIxon and Tee Higgins battling injuries. There is definitely some upside in this game, but ultimately, this feels like a 26-23 type of game with minimal fantasy explosiveness.
Targets: Jeff Wilson Jr., George Kittle, Joe Mixon — assuming he is active — and Ja’Marr Chase
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The new chatter around the San Francisco 49ers is that the organization may be looking to move on from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the offseason. Color me unimpressed. As I wrote in my picks column, there were so many converging factors to lead to this point that it is hardly news at all. Still, it does present an interesting underlying element to the 49ers’ remaining games, and that starts with a road trip to a non-conference opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati is all over the place in terms of production, but almost everything points back to the average. The Bengals are average in yards gained, average in yards allowed and, the few times they have deviated from their scoring average, they reverted right back to it. If anything, their pass defense is slightly worse than their run defense, which, coupled with what I wrote about Garoppolo, means that San Francisco’s aerial attack is in-play for me. I won’t avoid the Bengals’ offense altogether because of how regularly they score at least 20 points — all-but-twice on the season — but I won’t go overboard. If Joe Mixon is healthy, then he is the clear lead target.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon — if healthy — Ja’Marr Chase, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jeff Wilson, Jr., Deebo Samuel — if he plays — and George Kittle
Fades: Both defenses, even if I am cautious with how many offensive players I use
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bills made major headlines last week as they managed to lose a game to a Patriots team that attempted just 3 passes all game long. They have struggled mightily to stop the run recently, but luckily for them, the Buccaneers almost never run the ball. The Buccaneers lead the league in pass attempts and have the second fewest rush attempts on the year. The Bills also have a good matchup offensively as they prefer to lean on Josh Allen over the run game, and the Buccaneers are no fun to try to run against. Overall, this game sets up to be a very pass-happy affair for both sides which could set up a very productive fantasy game.
Targets: Josh Allen, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Rob Gronowski
Fades: Bills Running Backs
Must-Owns: Stefon Diggs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always write about how much it bothers me to lean on an ‘obvious’ outcome, but is there any way around expecting a tremendous amount of offense from the game between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Tampa Bay routinely scores 30 points — seven times on the year and in three consecutive weeks — and ranks in the top-two for both points and yards-per-game. I don’t care about the Buffalo Bills’ defensive numbers in this situation largely because of the competition it has faced over the season. I will have some exposure to the Buccaneers’ offense. The twist here is that the Bills actually have the more intriguing upside. Buffalo just played an impossibly difficult game in conditions so windy that the team couldn’t throw often — let alone throw effectively. That will be wildly different on Sunday, and it will be against a Tampa Bay team that stops the run with ease but allows the eighth-most passing touchdowns in the league.
Targets: Both quarterbacks and all pass-catchers
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Josh Allen
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chicago Bears are sporting a historically bad passing offense, and in today’s NFL, that feels completely unacceptable. What is even worse for them, is that the Packers boast a top ten defense by most major metrics, and they are only getting healthier and more rested following their bye week. It may be obvious, but I just don’t see a path to the Bears keeping pace in this game. The Packers are rolling on both sides of the ball, and the Bears are struggling to find any sort of identity or sustained success.
Targets: David Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and Packers Defense
Fades: Justin Fields
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The key storyline for Sunday Night Football is that quarterback Justin Fields will return to action for the Chicago Bears, and he actually brings a potential spark to the team. The Bears have been impossibly bad on offense and, even though that includes a stretch of games played by Fields, he has the ability to use his legs for fantasy points as well as keep drives alive. I wouldn’t set my expectations too high, but Chicago has gone cold and could use a reversal. On the other side of the matchup, the Green Bay Packers are returning to action after a bye week, but that might not be best for the team. There is a chance that the momentum has been sapped after scoring 31 and 36 points and then stepping away from the game for two weeks. If you want to build a ‘contrarian’ lineup, then that’s the way to go — and use the Bears’ defense. Otherwise, the typical superstars are the main targets from Green Bay.
Targets: Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, and both defenses — where you should obviously lean on the side you expect to win
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After multiple ugly games in a row, the Rams finally rebounded with a nice win last week, but it comes with a major asterisk being that it came against the lowly Jaguars. Despite all of that, I actually find myself leaning towards a Rams win in this game, but it actually is more about the Cardinals than anything about the Rams. Last week, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins returned from lengthy absences, and the Cardinals cruised to victory. But Kyler Murray was asked to do very little in that game as he threw just 15 passes given the weather and game flow against the lowly Bears. This is going to be Murray’s first competitive game since Week 8, and I have some concerns that he may be a bit rusty. That may lead to some issues against a Rams defense that is loaded with elite playmakers. There is so much talent in this game, that the overall fantasy scoring should be high even if the actual game score doesn’t reach the level many people are expecting.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Sony Michel, Van Jefferson Jr., Odell Beckham Jr., Kyler Murray, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins and Zach Ertz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Let’s start off by establishing the big picture setup for the Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. The first — and probably most important — is that a win by the Cardinals would essentially lock up one of the most competitive divisions in football — by virtue of sweeping the Rams and holding a lead of at least three games on every other team in the NFC West. It’s certainly possible, but make sure you acknowledge the implications before diving in with any particular play. Along the same lines, there has to be an expectation of offense — especially if looking for the Cardinals to win — and, while I have no reason to avoid either team altogether, I would want to be careful. Despite both teams ranking in the top-five for points-per-game, they are probably each going to regress a bit under the national spotlight after scoring more than 30 points in their respective Week 13 games. In the two-game Primetime slate, I will limit my exposure to Monday night but, obviously, in a single-game Showdown, I will be looking for offense.
Targets: Everyone on offense, even if I do expect a slightly lower ceiling as a whole
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp