We had a much smaller slate last week with the Thanksgiving games taking some of the teams, but Week 13 brings us right back to a large schedule with plenty of fantasy upside. There are even some clearly popular teams that may be worth avoiding.

Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 13 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.

Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.

Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It should come as absolutely no surprise to hear that I am high on the Buccaneers offense this week. They sit atop the NFL as the highest scoring offense, and they get to take on a Falcons defense that is the second worst defense in terms of points allowed. With Antonio Brown now suspended, you can count on the Buccaneers continuing to lean on Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette heavily on a weekly basis. The Falcons offense has given us little reason for optimism, but a division game, at home, with absolutely no expectations on you can sometimes be a time for an offense to hit its stride. I won’t invest overly heavily, but with their defense likely to give up a ton of points, Matt Ryan should be quite busy which gives some upside to the Falcons passing game.

Targets: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Ryan, Cordarelle Patterson, Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts

Fades: Mike Davis

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I can’t help but equate this meeting between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons to the prior one, and that has differing takeaways for people. Some will see the large margin-of-victory and conclude that the two teams are far apart from one another. Others — namely, I — will point to the fact that fourteen of Tampa Bay’s points came from defensive touchdowns in that game. This is important to recognize because the Falcons are allowing the second-most points in the league, and that might lead to increased popularity for Tampa Bay’s offense. This should serve as a caution to not follow without proper cause. On the other side of the matchup, it still remains impossible for teams to run against the Buccaneers, so I would only lean on the aerial attack.

Targets: Matt Ryan, Cordarrelle Patterson — but only because he catches passes — Russell Gage, Tajae Sharp, Kyle Pitts, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski

Fades: All other running backs

Must-Owns: None

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Arizona Cardinals may or may not be getting back their two best players this week in Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, but honestly, it doesn’t matter either way. The Cardinals defense quietly remains a top five defense in both yards allowed and points against. The Bears offense… well the Bears offense isn’t very good. They have some flashes every now and again, but overall, it has been another ugly season for the Bears offense, and with Andy Dalton expected to get another start, our expectations remain low. A dominant performance from a rested Cardinals defense should set up a relatively stress free game for the Cardinals offense, no matter what their personnel looks like. 

Targets: Colt McCoy (assuming he starts), James Conner, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz and Darnell Mooney

Fades: Andy Dalton

Must-Owns: Cardinals Defense

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious key storyline for the Arizona Cardinals is the status of quarterback Kyler Murray. I am never one to lean on a quarterback as the foundation for any pick, but he obviously matters tremendously in the fantasy football world. If he’s in, then we can use him and some pass-catchers. If he’s out, I don’t know if I can turn to Colt McCoy, but I would probably upgrade running back James Connor instead. Ultimately, the Cardinals’ defense has the better matchup against a Chicago Bears offense that ranks third-worst in yards-per-game and has yet to score more than 27 points in any matchup.

Targets: Kyler Murray — if he plays — DeAndre Hopkins — if he plays — Arizona’s defense, and David Montgomery

Fades: Everyone else from Chicago

Must-Owns: James Conner — if Murray is out

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is a rare phenomenon in the NFL when a team can be very predictable seemingly every week, but that is what we get in the Chargers. Last week was a very obvious letdown spot for the talented Chargers against a divisional foe on the road. Now, the reeling Chargers have the daunting task of going on the road to face a Bengals team fresh off a 31 point victory over the Steelers. That is exactly the time the Chargers will bring their A-game and pull off an upset victory. It doesn’t make sense, but that is who the Chargers are, and it is all but certain to happen. The Bengals will likely feature Joe MIxon heavily given the matchup, but look for Justin Herbert to shine against fellow second year quarterback, Joe Burrow.

Targets: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd

Fades: None

Must-Owns: Justin Herbert

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Because of the high-profile players on their offense, it’s hard to imagine too many situations in which the Los Angeles Chargers are ever unpopular in the DFS world, but that might be the case against the Cincinnati Bengals and their defense on Sunday. The Chargers just failed miserably against the Broncos, and that will certainly not be forgotten by the high number of people who trusted Los Angeles. That makes me want to find some exposure to the Chargers. Another takeaway from last week that will have an impact on this week’s game is the rushing attack against Los Angeles. The Chargers are notoriously bad at stopping the run — we’ve mentioned it almost every week in this column — and the Bengals have had no hesitation turning to running back Joe Mixon to shoulder a massive workload. DFS players will add two and two and get four, but I am actually out on Mixon and his high popularity. He has been excellent in wins, where the Bengals are 5-0 when he rushes for at least 90 yards. Because I’m expecting a better fight from the Chargers, Mixon’s ceiling is consequently lower.

Targets: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and C.J. Uzomah

Fades: Joe Mixon

Must-Owns: None

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Minnesota Vikings are what they are, and we typically know better than to trust them when it seems too easy. Luckily for us, the narrow victory over the Lions in their first matchup has people believing this game could provide the first win for the Lions. While it would be fitting for that to come against the Vikings, this game has blowout written all over it. The Lions point differential in their last three games has been 0, -3 and -2, but make no mistake, they are still a very bad football team. In those three games, they have averaged just over 100 passing yards per game, and with the heart and soul of their offense — D’Andre Swift — out for at least this game, things are not going to get any better. Look for a very easy victory for the Vikings in this one. 

Targets: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Vikings Defense and Jamaal Williams

Fades: Jared Goff

Must-Owns: Alexander Mattison

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Minnesota Vikings remain exactly what we thought they were, as they have hovered around .500 for the majority of the season. A game against the hapless Detroit Lions appears to be the perfect setup for a return back to an even record, but it looks like it will be easier for the Vikings to find yards instead of points. Might they explode? Of course. But the Lions have held their last three opponents to fewer than 17 points while still giving up at least 349 yards in each contest. The obvious game flow play would be running back Alexander Mattison, as he slides into the starting role yet again for the injured Dalvin Cook. There is certainly some upside with the Lions’ offense against a Minnesota defense that has allowed at least 31 points in three-of-its-last-four games, but the Lions have scored at least 20 points only once all season. It was on Opening Day.

Targets: Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Jared Goff, T.J. Hockenson

Fades: Jamaal Williams

Must-Owns: None, but Mattison is close

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every week in the NFL there is at least one game that the public will look back on and think “how in the world did that happen?” That is what this game is going to provide this week when we look back and see a Giants victory over the Dolphins. The Giants offense has scored just 23 points over their last two games, and is now without their starting quarterback and likely two of their top wide receivers as well. The Dolphins are currently riding a 4 game winning streak, but that is about to come crashing down on them as they head into their bye week with an ugly loss to the Giants. The Dolphins offense has had some good moments this year, but this group ranks 27th in the league in net yards per pass attempt and 31st in yards per rush attempt. The Giants defense has had a pretty impressive stretch of five games after a very rough start to the season, which has helped them climb up to 9th in the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt. The Giants defense has also managed to create at least one turnover in every single game of the season.  This is going to be one of the uglier games of the week, so invest with caution.

Targets: Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki

Fades: Mike Glennon and Tua Tagovailoa

Must-Owns: Giants Defense

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Probably the most curious storyline of the early set of games on Sunday is the New York Giants’ reporting of quarterback Daniel Jones. He was apparently listed as “out” for the game earlier in the week, then was possibly going to play, rumored to miss the remainder of the season, back into the realm of suiting up for the game, and now is “out.” It’s not that he will miss the game that I find odd. It’s the manner in which the information was shared and updated. Ultimately, his absence does limit how much exposure I want to the passing game, but it also boosts the value of running back Saquon Barkley. He’s finally showing signs that he can handle a larger workload, and that’s probably going to be a necessary without Jones under center. I’m not too thrilled with leaning on the Miami Dolphins’ offense either, as regression looks ready to strike a team that has scored increasingly more points in five consecutive weeks. That, and the Giants have improved defensively, holding opponents to 15.2 points-per-game in their last five matchups — and that includes a 30-point performance by the Buccaneers.

Targets: Mike Glennon — only because of his price — Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, and both defenses

Fades: Everyone else

Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Eagles may have lost last week, and the Jets may have won in Zach Wilson’s first game back from injury, but the Eagles are going to win this game quite comfortably. The Jets won a horribly sloppy game against the Houston Texans which is hardly a convincing victory. Wilson was far from dominant in that victory, and has admitted that his knee is still not at 100%. Between that, and the much tougher matchup this week, I am expecting to see the Zach Wilson we saw quite often at the beginning of this season which should set up the Eagles offense for success whether they are being led by Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew II. As crazy as it sounds, I would actually give a significant bump to the Eagles passing game if Minshew plays in place of Hurts while also admitting their run game will obviously take a hit. Either way, the Eagles should cruise this week. 

Targets: Eagles quarterback, Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Eagles Defense

Fades: Jets Offense

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The top storyline for the nonconference game between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets is easily the status of quarterback Jalen Hurts. He’s dealing with an ankle injury — which matters for him even more because of his rushing ability — and is in jeopardy of missing the game. It’s a problem because Hurts would absolutely be on my radar, so we’ll have to monitor his status and potentially take the risk with him if we learn that he will take the field against the New York Jets. If not, I might go as far as using Gardner Minshew II at the minimum price for a quarterback on DraftKings. Pretty much no one outside of Elijah Moore is work a look from the Jets.

Targets: Whichever quarterback is starting for the Eagles, Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia’s defense, and Elijah Moore

Fades: Everyone else on the Jets

Must-Owns: None, but Gardner Minshew II is incredibly intriguing at his price if he is starting

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you are a regular here, you know that when things are obvious, we very often choose to question that thing. With that said, I am not stopping to question this game for one second. The Colts have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the last two months, and a final drive touchdown loss to the Buccaneers does not change that. On top of their continued elite play, the Texans are coming off a very predictable loss to the Jets that should have served as a stark reminder to anyone who lost sight of the fact that they are still the Houston Texans even after their victory over the Titans. The Colts and Jonathan Taylor should continue their strong play with an easy victory this week. 

Targets: Carson Wentz, Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman Jr., T.Y. Hilton and Colts Defense

Fades: Texans Offense

Must-Owns: Jonathan Taylor

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s a little dangerous to look at the Indianapolis Colts’ upcoming game with the Houston Texans and simply expect another big win because that’s what happened when the two teams met last time. Still, the Colts have evolved as a team and directly shown that they have no hesitation relentlessly pounding the run game via Jonathan Taylor. Why would that part of the matchup be any different? It probably won’t, which means that Taylor slides into the ‘must-play’ category for me. I will lower the ceiling for Indianapolis’ passing game a bit, even though I won’t avoid it altogether. The Houston Texans’ offense has some potential with Tyrod Taylor under center, but the real value of Taylor’s presence is that he doesn’t turn the ball over enough to warrant the Colts’ defense as a play.

Targets: Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, Jr., and Brandin Cooks — if healthy

Fades: Colts defense and everyone else from Houston

Must-Owns: Jonathan Taylor

Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Raiders are coming off a huge victory over the Cowboys in what was the most watched regular season football game in over 30 years. That type of victory is great for a team’s confidence, but it is also a great way for betters and fantasy sports players to lose sight of bigger pictures. Before that game, the Raiders had three straight games where their offense scored 16 or fewer points. The offense has been in a rut, and while that game was a major step in the right direction, it does not mean their issues are fixed. Those issues are only going to be amplified this week as they are without Darren Waller and possibly Josh Jacobs as well. This team is running out of players, and they have to face a Washington team that has won 3 straight games and firmly put themselves back in the playoff picture. They are simply the team playing consistently better football, and I see that continuing this week.

Targets: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Derek Carr, Bryan Edwards and Foster Morreau

Fades: None

Must-Owns: Antonio Gibson

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we were reminded of anything in Thanksgiving’s victory by the Las Vegas Raiders, it’s that the team has no hesitation in throwing the ball down the field. For DFS players, this is a gift. That gift is made even better when we consider that the Washington Football Team ranks dead last in passing touchdowns. Need I say more? The reality is that I am equally as drawn to Washington’s offense since it has been playing better since its bye week, while the Raiders are allowing the third-most points-per-game in the league and no fewer than 32 in each of the last three games.

Targets: Both quarterbacks and all pass catchers

Fades: None

Must-Owns: None, but I’m probably using someone from Washington in most of my lineups

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Rams have looked legitimately bad in three straight games now — all of which have been losses after their 7-1 start to the season. Despite that, I have to expect an easy win, because this is basically a varsity versus JV matchup this week. The Rams are a vastly superior team in absolutely every facet of the game. The Jaguars haven’t managed to score more than 17 points in a game since Week 6. Things have been downright ugly for Jacksonville, and I can’t see them getting better against a Rams team playing in Los Angeles and desperate for a win of their own to right their ship.  

Targets: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson Jr. and Rams Defense

Fades: Jaguars Offense

Must-Owns: Sony Michel — if Darrell Henderson Jr. is out, otherwise both are worth considering

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there were ever a team that needs to win and an opponent set up nicely for said win, it’s the Los Angeles Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively. It will be just as hard to find someone who actually expects Jacksonville to win as it is for the team to pull off the outright ‘upset.’ That has to naturally move people toward the Rams’ players and away from Jacksonville’s. I’m not going overboard with Jaguars players, but I am also taking this opportunity to stay away from the Rams as well. In addition to their own struggles, Los Angeles actually has a tough matchup against a solid run defense. It’s not impossible for the Jaguars to limit the Rams.

Targets: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars’ pass-catchers, and Jacksonville’s defense — if going truly ‘contrarian’

Fades: Rams running backs

Must-Owns: None

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I often point out when I was very right with a prediction, so it’s only fair I also point out when I was very wrong, and boy was I wrong on the Steelers last week. They suffered a 31-point defeat at the hands of the Bengals, and it was every bit as ugly as it sounds. While that type of game makes it easy to abandon ship, I have to be willing to die with the Steelers once again. Mike Tomlin simply does not let this team go away, and he has already orchestrated one major turnaround after a three game losing skid earlier this year. If the Steelers are to remain part of the playoff hunt, and the division race, this game is an absolute must win, and I think they find a way to get it done. I usually lean on the Steelers defense when I need faith in them, but they have been struggling of late, so I am going to count on the Steelers offense waking up and taking advantage of a matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL and ranks 29th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. 

Targets: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Ben Roethlisberger, Najee Harris, Chase Claypool and Pat Friermuth 

Fades: Ravens Defense

Must-Owns: Diontae Johnson

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s going to be nearly impossible for most people — myself included — to avoid the easy bias of casting aside the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens because it’s a ‘tough AFC North matchup.’ It is, but that doesn’t mean we will see nothing-but-defense for 60 minutes. Baltimore is fourth in the league in yards-per-game, while the Steelers just fell apart to the tune of only ten points after scoring 37 the week before. Most importantly, the narrative that Pittsburgh can’t do anything offensively is strong enough that it, coupled with the perception of the matchup, probably leads to severely diminished popularity. I will carefully attack this game to make sure I have some exposure to it.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Malcolm Brown, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: None

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is very painful to say it, but it is time to give up on the Seahawks. Their offense is simply lost right now, and it is making life absolutely impossible for their defense. Things have gotten so bad that they sit 31st in the league in yards of offense and 32nd in yards allowed on defense. It feels so wrong to say it, but right now, they are playing like the worst team in football. While the playoffs are nearly impossible at this point, I can’t totally rule out a win this week to make things slightly more interesting. My minor hope is more about the absence of Deebo Samuel than anything that Seahawks are doing. Samuel has been the catalyst of everything the 49ers have done on offense this year, and without him, they may struggle big time. This game has the makings of a very ugly matchup, and while it may get the Seahawks back in the win column, it is not going to draw my interest in for fantasy purposes. There isn’t even a reason to love a defense as neither defense creates many turnovers, and neither offense gives the ball away very often. This game feels like a blackhole of fantasy relevance unless Russell Wilson and the Seahawks suddenly remember how to play football. 

Targets: Eli Mitchell and DK Metcalf

Fades: Everyone else in this game

Must-Owns: None

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Once again, we find ourselves in the uncomfortable position of accepting that the Seattle Seahawks are ‘done,’ but also acknowledging that they will be undervalued because of how quickly the bandwagon is emptying. For that reason, we can’t totally avoid Seattle, and I’ll be keeping them on my radar in case someone fits into my lineup — which also means I won’t be forcing anyone in just for the sake of it. The San Francisco 49ers have essentially the perfect matchup against the league’s worst defense in yards allowed, but my main focal point is wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk with the absence of Deebo Samuel. Samuel had become an integral part of the offense, but will miss Sunday’s game. Aiyuk may not replicate Samuel’s success perfectly, but he’s reasonably priced for his new role.

Targets: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Eli Mitchell, and George Kittle

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: Brandon Aiyuk

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Broncos got a big win last week to keep themselves in the AFC West race, but that had a lot to do with the Chargers simply being due to give away a game. Now, they travel to Kansas City to face a red hot Chiefs team that is fresh off the Andy Reid cheat code of a bye week. The history of strong play coming out of a bye week is well documented for Andy Reid teams, and I am not going to bet against that. Add that to the fact that they are in the midst of a 4 game winning streak after a very sluggish 3-4 start to the season, and I can’t expect anything other than a Chiefs comfortable victory to help them start to pull away in the division race. 

Targets: Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Travis Kelce

Fades: None

Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I absolutely respect what the Denver Broncos did against the Chargers last week, I am surprised to see how many people are talking about Denver shutting down the Kansas City Chiefs as well. It’s definitely possible — and I have to assume that Kansas City being away on a bye last week has resulted in a lack of attention — but there’s no way I’m avoiding the Chiefs’ offense on Primetime following a bye week. If anything, the best opportunity is to ask for the Broncos to match the Chiefs, since Kansas City’s defense still has the possibility of failing on a given night.

Targets: All offensive players

Fades: Both defenses

Must-Owns: Tyreek Hill

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Luke’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This has to be considered the game of the week, and one of the most exciting primetime games we’ve had all season. This is a first-place matchup in the AFC East featuring the New England Patriots and their current 6 game winning streak — in which they have allowed a total of 26 points in the last 4 of those games — and the Buffalo Bills who have been trading wins and losses since Week 5. The Bills can’t seem to fully get into a rhythm this season, as every week we watch them blow out an opponent or lose in embarrassing fashion. While that trend puts them on a path to a bad loss, we have also seen them be very good in their primetime games this season — 38-20 win over the Chiefs, 34-31 loss to the Titans and a 31-6 victory over the Saints in their last game. I have a hard time thinking we don’t see the best version of the Bills this week as they manage to slow down the freight train that is the New England Patriots. 

Targets: Damien Harris, Rahmondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders

Fades: Patriots passing game

Must-Owns: Josh Allen

Mario’s DFS Take

Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This giddy football fan — and lover of chaos in sports — is bursting with excitement at the possibility that the biggest game of the week might be filled with snow. The other positive — besides the enjoyment of watching such a game — is that DFS players will instantly think of defense as a result of the bad weather. Maybe that’s the right route — and, compared to what I wrote for the Sunday night game, I can justify Monday’s being the lower-scoring of the two. That will give us an edge, though, especially in the two-game Primetime slate. Either way, we have to start Monday night’s expectations with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. I’m often critical of Allen when others aren’t, but the storyline about how big of a game this is against the New England Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick puts pressure on Allen to perform. Once again, that’s an edge in the sense that Allen may be slightly less popular than in prior weeks. Otherwise, the game writes itself in terms of lineup build: if you’re buying into the weather limiting offense, then you would have to lean on defenses and, if not, the usual suspects are in-play.

Targets: Both quarterbacks, Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry, Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, and Dawson Knox

Fades: None

Must-Owns: Josh Allen