Sunday carries a smaller slate of games with three already played on Thanksgiving. With two other high-powered offenses on a bye week, it would appear as if there is a weaker set of options. Not so fast. There may not be as many plays that jump out as completely obvious and ‘must-own,’ but there is plenty of potential based on either the matchup or game flow.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It was impressive to see the Bengals come out of their bye week and put together a massive victory over the Raiders. Despite that showing, my faith lies fully with the Steelers this week, mainly because I am completely buying into the thinking that the AFC North is going to be a slugfest until the end. A Steelers victory this week is probably not what most people are expecting which, in this division, means it is the more likely outcome. Either way, I don’t see this game featuring the type of offense we saw from these two teams in each of their previous games. I like the Steelers to win an ugly game where only the workhorse running backs have much fantasy appeal.
Targets: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Steelers Defense and Joe Mixon
Fades: Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Burrow
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense exploded last week for a season-high 37 points, I’m quite sure that most DFS players are going to look that outcome as an outlier. Technically, they would be correct, but I’m always hesitant to outright avoid Pittsburgh. It does have a top-flight running back in Najee Harris and it frequently will throw enough passes in one direction that the main target — usually Diontae Johnson — is worth a look. Still, I am down on the offense in the game against the Cincinnati Bengals as a whole, and that includes carefully stepping away from both sides. We are looking at a pivotal AFC North matchup, and both teams have stout enough defenses for a low-scoring game to lead the way.
Targets: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, Joe Mixen, Ja’Marr Chase, and both defenses
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After basically touting them highly for the last year and a half, the Colts are finally making believers of people outside of the writers of Sporfolio. They are showing that they have talent on both sides of the ball, and are capable of beating some of the top teams in the league. It will be a tall task for them to keep this winning streak alive, and the biggest hurdle is that the engine of their offense is the run game, and Tampa Bay is no fun to run against. Tampa Bay allows the fewest rushing yards per game and the second fewest yards per rush attempt. This may be the week that Jonathan Taylor comes down to earth, but he and the Colts in general will do just enough to keep this game close down to the wire. That is going to mean their defense will have to step up and slow down Tom Brady enough to keep things interesting.
Targets: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Nyheim Hines and Michael Pittman Jr.
Fades: Leonard Fournette and Carson Wentz
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’re going to see an immediate test between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ outstanding run defense and the Indianapolis Colts’ successful rushing attack. Specifically, how do we handle Jonathan Taylor? The inclination is probably going be to avoid him after he just exploded for five touchdowns, but he didn’t just stumble into the end zone five times last week. Indianapolis made a conscious effort to keep going back to him — it’s not like the roster is devoid of running back depth — so there might be something to using Taylor again, even in a brutal matchup. Otherwise, I’m completely fine with using most of the usual suspects for both teams, as this game has the potential to end up on the higher-scoring end of the scale.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Jonathan Taylor, and all healthy pass-catchers
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I will turn to this game for some offense
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is clear that with Cam Newton under center for the Panthers, their offense can be effective, but hardly explosive. While completing 21 of 27 passes last week, Newton threw for just 189 yards. The Panthers are going to continue to lean on Newton and Christian McCaffrey to make plays, but the reliance on long drives and short gains will not always work. Playing a defense like Miami, more plays likely means more chances for turnovers. Over the last two years, this Dolphins defense has given up yards, but been elite at creating turnovers. That seemed unsustainable, but on the season, they are 9th in the league in turnovers forced and have at least one turnover in all but two games. I like the Dolphins defense to lead them to another victory this week.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle and Dolphins Defense
Fades: Cam Newton
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It has not been a short season for either the Carolina Panthers or Miami Dolphins, as the two teams have started a combined five different quarterbacks this year. Sunday’s matchup will allow the Dolphins to roll out Tua Tagovailoa — their preferred option under center — while the Panthers will be leaning on Cam Newton once again. With the hype of Newton lowering after last week’s loss — as expected — we can probably buy into him now. Still, the offense for both teams probably avoids too much a high-caliber passing attack, where only the main targets of Jaylen Waddle, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and now Robby Anderson are worth a look.
Targets: Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, and both defenses
Fades: Tua Tagovailoa
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Titans suffered a massive loss to the lowly Texans last week, but we were hardly surprised. The Titans had been winning games prior to that, but for weeks have been simply surviving rather than actually playing well. That doesn’t bode well for them playing a red-hot Patriots team that is dominating on both sides of the ball recently. The Titans have fared well against the Patriots in recent years, so I think they find a way to somewhat compete in this game. Ultimately, the Patriots are simply the better team right now, and with the Titans missing essentially their entire offense, I have to think the Patriots eventually distance themselves and win comfortably in the end.
Targets: Dontrell Hilliard, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Mac Jones, Jakobi Meyers and Patriots Defense
Fades: Ryan Tannehill
Must-Owns: Whichever running back winds up being healthy for the Patriots
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are many storylines to consider for the game between the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans, but we obviously need to determine which will have an impact on what we can expect from a fantasy viewpoint. The fist — and easiest — takeaways from last week’s action are that Tennessee struggled against the Texans while the Patriots are hitting their stride and dominating — as evidenced by a 25-0 win in Atlanta. Ultimately, aren’t those two points meaningless? Really, we can see them as the culminations of trends, where the Titans were eventually going to get caught out-of-position without running back Derrick Henry on the field while the Patriots had been surging. Neither outcome is actually surprising, which means that we can attack Sunday’s game with a clean slate in terms of biases or opinions. The problem is that the rosters are filled with injury questions — possibly as the two head coaches try to play coy with one another — although that might lead to some lowered ownership percentages since DFS players may opt to stay away from the game. I’m not expecting fireworks either, but I will carefully target one or two players for my lineups.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Dontrell Hilliard, whichever Titans wide receiver is healthy, Mac Jones, and Hunter Henry
Fades: None, but I’m probably staying away from the Patriots’ shared backfield situation
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Giants change at offensive coordinator is not going to fix this team long term, but I am expecting the move to appear to pay dividends right away. A change like this can provide a flash in the pan type of effect that sparks the team right away before fizzling out. The Eagles are playing better football, and seemingly are better in all facets of the game than the Giants, so in typical NFC East fashion, that is going to add up to a Giants victory this week. The Eagles have a lot of winnable games ahead of them, but they are not built to have a major winning streak. A road-division matchup is the perfect set up for a letdown game.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, DaVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Daniel Jones, Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram
Fades: Eagles Defense
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whenever I’m making my against-the-spread picks, I love to find teams that are now either extremely popular or extremely unpopular. In some cases, that spills into the DFS world perfectly. This is one of those cases. The Philadelphia Eagles are growing in popularity as a ‘sleeper team to watch’ while the New York Giants are firing members of their coaching staff. Immediately, we have a buying opportunity for New York’s offense by virtue of a new coordinator taking over for Sunday’s game, and it’s likely that the offense will be more aggressive — it’s hard to imagine it could be less aggressive than it was. I won’t avoid the Eagles’ offense at all, but the team has just popped for 40 points after hitting 30 the week before, and some regression is possible against a familiar division opponent.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a decent stretch of football, the Falcons have completely fallen apart. Their last two games featured a whopping 3 points scored while allowing 68 points. In their defense, those two games were against two of the better teams in the league, and this matchup comes against one of the worst teams in the league. Coming off a mini bye week following their Thursday night game, I love the Falcons offense to rebound after two consecutive horrible games. The Jaguars defense ranks 29th in the league in net yards allowed per pass attempt, so I am looking for Matt Ryan to lead the Falcons back to the win column.
Targets: Cordarelle Patterson, Russell Gage, Kyle Pitts, Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson and Marvin Jones Jr.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Matt Ryan
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The good news for the Atlanta Falcons is that the numbers suggest we should see approximately 19 points as a baseline following last week’s shutout. The bad news? This is the same Falcons team that, despite bringing in an offensive coordinator as the team’s new head coach, still ranks fifth-worst in yards-per-game. A matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars certainly helps — they rank 25th in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed — but Atlanta needs to actually take advantage for it to be worth anything. I wouldn’t go overboard, but I’m clearly buying into some of Atlanta’s offense, while also keeping the Jaguars on my radar.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Cordarrelle Patterson — if healthy — Russell Gage, Kyle Pitts, James Robinson — if healthy — and Marvin Jones, Jr.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but Kyle Pitts is close — and will probably be popular
New York Jets at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Texans pulled off the major upset against the Titans last week, but let’s not forget who this team is. The Texans took advantage of an ideal set up last week against a vulnerable divisional opponent. A game against the lowly Jets feels like another victory in the making, but this is a team with no real reason to want to win, while the Jets are getting Zach Wilson back after a lengthy absence, and really need a positive showing from him. Despite my general feelings on Wilson and the Jets, this game is the perfect set up for them to get a feel-good victory where they jump out to an early lead. With Tyrod Taylor under center, there is a chance the Texans offense finds some success playing from behind as well.
Targets: Zach Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Tyrod Taylor and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Texans Defense
Must-Owns: Ty Johnson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Grab your popcorn! We have a professional pillowfight between two groups of people posing as football players. Do you want entertainment? There it is. Do you want good football? Look elsewhere than the pathetic matchup between the New York Jets and Houston Texans. Then again, the Jets are turning back to rookie quarterback Zach Wilson — partially out of immediate necessity and partially out of future obligations — and he has sneaky upside for Sunday. There were talks — premature as they may have been — that Wilson was in danger of losing his job to Mike White and, while that clearly won’t happen anymore, perhaps the adversity Wilson faced might help him. There is also a path for Houston’s offense to perform, as the team just pulled off a major ‘upset’ behind the return of a healthy Tyrod Taylor under center — he came back before the team’s bye week but delivered an impossibly bad performance at the time. This pillowfight might actually be a good place to look for some offense.
Targets: Zach Wilson, Ty Johnson, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, Tyrod Taylor, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but, for their prices, Wilson or Johnson might be ‘must-owns’
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Prior to last week’s game, the Chargers had only held one team below 100 rushing yards. The following game, they allowed 230 rushing yards to the Cleveland Browns, a run-first team with a two headed rushing attack. Last week, the Chargers shut down the Steelers running game, but now travel to Denver to face off with the Broncos and the two headed running monster of Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams. The Chargers have been trading wins and losses in recent weeks, and after last week’s big win, a division game on the road feels like a great time for the Chargers to slip up again. On top of all of that, we get the Melvin Gordon III revenge game that you know he is excited about.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Javonte Williams and Noah Fant
Fades: Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: Melvin Gordon III
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It may not qualify as a “storyline,” but the immediate takeaway from a quick glance at the options from the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos is that everyone from the Chargers is overpriced. That’s not an accident, as DraftKings has to make some players comparatively less attractive than others to avoid overloading lineups, but we now need to make a decision. Do we pay the price and do so against a division opponent with an excellent defense? Personally, I won’t, but just know that you might get some ownership advantages my using the high-salary players from Los Angeles. Otherwise, I may take a chance with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and a pass-catcher from Denver with the expectation that the Broncos need to throw at some point in order to keep pace with the Chargers. Then again, Los Angeles’ run defense is the worst in the league — in rush yards allowed — and Denver is 3-0 when rushing for at least 120 yards on the season.
Targets: Teddy Bridgewater, Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams, Jerry Judy, Courtland Sutton, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There have been multiple matchups this year that looked like epic quarterback battles, and most of them have fallen well short of our expectations. Many people may have lowered their expectations for this game with how the Rams have been playing lately. Luckily for them, and for us, they are fresh off their bye week following two straight bad games. A week off to rest, and take some time to get their recently acquired players more familiar with the playbook. I am always quick to love a team with a good coaching staff coming off a bye week, and the Rams fit that mold. With my expectations being very high for the Rams, I have to think the Packers offense puts up yards and points as well. If we learned anything from the Packers loss last week, it is that Aaron Rodgers seemingly never allows this team to be out of a game. I am hoping for this game to restore our faith in offensive explosions when high end quarterbacks meet up.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson Jr., Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Odell Beckham Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels like we aren’t getting a straight answer from the Green Bay Packers about the health of numerous players — mainly, quarterback Aaron Rodgers — but the reality is that Rodgers and his pass-catchers will almost certainly be playing against the Los Angeles Rams with an outside chance of Aaron Jones joining the mix. I’m not sure if the latter happens, but the uncertainty, alone, will push people away from Jones — which would, in turn, push me toward him. Unfortunately, for as great as this game seems at first glance, we have seen a large number of high-profile games fail to live up to the hype, and I’m worried that might happen again here. Still, we can lean on the top superstars as they will be asked to perform in this massive NFC matchup.
Targets: Aaron Rogers, Aaron Jones — if he plays — A.J. Dillon, Davante Adams, Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Jr., and Cooper Kupp — even at his exorbitant price
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The VIkings did exactly what we expected last week in upsetting the favored Packers, because that is just what the Vikings do. Coming off back-to-back impressive victories, the world is high on the Vikings again which means it is time for a disappointing game. The 49ers are humming along right now themselves coming off back-to-back wins of 21 and 20 points. The 49ers are going to win this game by doing what they always do — play solid defense, run the ball effectively and lean heavily on Deebo Samuel to make big plays. The Vikings have only played one game all season long that wasn’t settled by one possession, so expect a tight game starring ugly play by the Vikings.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Eli Mitchell, Jeff Wilson Jr., Deebo Samuel and George Kittle
Fades: Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garappolo
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’ve seen teams walk into an outstanding matchup against a porous run defense and inexplicably forget to run the ball as much as they should. The San Francisco 49ers will not be that team. They will salivate at the opportunity to run against the Minnesota Vikings — whose defense ranks second-worst in yards-per-carry. The problem, as usual with San Francisco, is that the team cycles through running backs and starter Eli Mitchell will probably carry an injury designation until the late afternoon on Sunday. I’m willing to take a chance, but just know that, while the 49ers could — and should — have success, they may not funnel it all through one player. On the other side of the matchup, the Vikings simply never go away, and they now rank seventh-best in yards-gained-per-game. They carry sneaky potential.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Eli Mitchell, Jeff Wilson, Jr., Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Coming off an ugly loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens managed to survive a matchup against the Bears without Lamar Jackson. With Jackson back and healthy again, the Ravens are expected to take a major step this week in securing their position atop the AFC North. The Browns are the perfect team to get in their way based on the way they are made up, especially with the anticipated return of Kareem Hunt. Despite the various injuries to their running backs, the Browns lead the league in rushing yards and yards per rush attempt. That offense is exactly how you beat a team like the Ravens because it keeps their offense off the field. If both teams are able to play to their strengths, this is going to be a game in which the ball ever gets thrown.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Lamar Jackson, Devonta Freeman and Mark Andrews
Fades: Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: By all accounts, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson should be back under center for the team, and we will be treated to a key AFC North matchup between the Ravens and Cleveland Browns — who barely survived a scuffle with the Lions last week. Throw all recent history out and consider two elements of the game. The first is the aforementioned Jackson. He’s healthy enough to play, but with the fact that he was too sick to start the last game, we have to wonder if there is some carryover effect into this week. The second is the potential for the Browns. They have been all over the map in terms of trends and numbers, but they enter Sunday night with a winning record and a chance to close the gap in the division. Cleveland would like to run the ball, but the Ravens are more vulnerable through-the-air. With that — and the possibility that this game turns into a back-and-forth battle — I want some exposure to the Browns’ passing game.
Targets: Lamar Jackson — although I won’t use him in every lineup — Devonta Freeman, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Nick Chubb, whichever wide receivers are healthy for Cleveland, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and, if taking a calculated risk in a two-game Primetime slate, Cleveland’s defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Baker Mayfield
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Russell Wilson has been back for two games now, and the Seahawks offense has been a major disappointment in both games. It is a stark reminder that this team does not stand a chance unless Wilson is playing at an elite level. Washington may be coming off back-to-back victories, but they are by far the easiest team the Seahawks have played since Wilson’s return. It may come back to burn me once again, but I simply cannot look at Russell Wilson against a bad team as an underdog and not love him. I am willing to give this offense another chance before fully accepting they are not the same. Wilson is also aided by the fact that Washington is 28th in the league in passing yards allowed and net yards allowed per pass attempt. In the continued absence of Chase Young, those numbers aren’t likely to improve.
Targets: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, J.D. McKissic and Terry McLaurin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Just like we had in the past with the Washington Football Team, we are probably reaching the point where we can no longer ask the Seattle Seahawks to do anything. They are on the verge of being ‘finished’ for the year, if they haven’t reached that mark already. As always, whenever we want to pronounce a team ‘dead,’ that’s probably the right time to buy back in for a small rebound — and this is what happened with Washington — so we can turn to Seattle for offense on Monday night, even if it doesn’t last longer than that. I’m also not against using offense from Washington against a Seahawks defense that had been terrible before moving back toward respectability. The problem with the Football Team, however, is that its offense is generally capped. It just reached 29 and 27 points over the last two weeks, but hadn’t scored more than 13 before that since Week 5.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Russell Wilson, whichever Seahawks running back is healthy enough to play, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Seattle’s defense
Fades: Most of Washington’s offense
Must-Owns: None, but J.D. McKissic is a ‘must-own’ if Antonio Gibson can’t play