We always view games a little differently between picks and DFS, even though we directly use many of our game expectations to highlight players we want to target and fade. The key, however, is that some matchups lend themselves to drift in one direction or another, even if the game itself appears to be less desirable than others.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 10 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One week after the Falcons beat the Saints and the Cowboys got dominated by the Broncos, I am all in on the Cowboys winning this game easily. The Falcons may be sitting at 4-4 and seemingly improving, but if you look at their recent stretch of games, it is hardly impressive. You have the Jets London victory, a sloppy win against a bad Dolphins team, a loss to the struggling Panthers and then a very very fortunate victory against the Trevor Siemian led Saints. The Cowboys may have had a major down week last week, but they are the much better team, and being at home should allow them to bounce back nicely this week.
Targets: Cordarelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz
Fades: Mike Davis
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott — assuming he is healthy
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are competing storylines and trends that all play a role in how we should expect the game between the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons to unfold, but no singular pattern is clear-cut. The Falcons have the advantage of going against a Cowboys defense that is still one of the worst in the league in yards allowed and finally stopped turning opponents over at a feverish pace. That boosts the ceiling for Atlanta’s offense and, if we recall, the Falcons went to Dallas last year and scored 39 points in an eventual heartbreak loss. The Cowboys have the storyline of rebounding from an impossibly bad ‘upset’ at the hands of the Broncos, and the fact that Atlanta is allowing the fifth-most points-per-game certainly allows Dallas’ offense to lead the way in that effort. I never like to overload a game too much, but I’d have to think that most key offensive players are solid targets from this matchup.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Matt Ryan, Cordarelle Patterson, and Kyle Pitts
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a really questionable start to the season, the Titans are fully looking like the team we expected them to be this year. They are rolling with a five-game win streak including wins against Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. With all of that in mind, it almost feels impossible for them to lose this week, but I think they will anyway. The Saints defense is borderline impossible to run the ball against, and without Derrick Henry, the Titans run game is going to struggle heavily. Their entire offense funnels through the ground game and what it sets up in the passing game. Without that, I like the Saints defense to led the team to a major upset victory as they solidify themselves as playoff contenders.
Targets: Mark Ingram II and A.J. Brown
Fades: Ryan Tannehill
Must-Owns: Saints Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We expected the Tennessee Titans to be able to manage their first game without Derrick Henry admirably, and that’s exactly what they did with a Sunday Night Football victory over the Rams. The problem? Henry’s absence will eventually have ramifications for the offense, and a matchup with the New Orleans Saints and its solid defense — the team is allowing the fifth-fewest points-per-game — is probably going to immediately highlight the Titans’ new flaw. The good news for Tennessee? Its defense has come to life and stopped bleeding points. Unfortunately for those of us playing DFS, it means we probably have to stay away from this head-to-head game for our offensive needs.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Everyone else on offense
Must-Owns: Mark Ingram II
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Kudos to the Jaguars for pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the year last week, but it was hardly a repeatable type of win. They won the ugliest type of game you can play, and the odds of stumbling upon that again are not great. That becomes vastly more true when you look at how good the Colts have been lately having scored 25 or more points in 6 straight games including 4 straight games of 30 or more points. The Colts have three games this season against teams that would be considered easy wins, and they won each of those games by at least ten points. This team is built around their running backs and their defense, and that should bode well for them against a Jaguars team that is struggling to find any momentum under Urban Meyer.
Targets: Marvin Jones Jr., Carson Wentz, Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman Jr., and Colts Defense
Fades: Trevor Lawrence
Must-Owns: Jonathan Taylor
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve been writing about this for weeks, but the Indianapolis Colts have no better time to make their move up the standings but the present. That would almost certainly require a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars and, even if they fail, the Colts should be fine offensively. I know Jacksonville just shut down Buffalo, but this isn’t the first time the defense stepped up in a surprising home game. The last time it happened, the Jaguars slowed down the then-undefeated Cardinals — one touchdown was allowed on an interception return — only to allow 420 yards of offense the following week. I might shy away from Jonathan Taylor just a little because Jacksonville’s lone strength is its run defense, but I am definitely looking at the Colts’ passing attack as an avenue for the team to establish a lead. I’m fine with the Jaguars’ passing game as well — albeit not with a tremendous amount of confidence — considering it will likely need to throw to keep pace.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Michael Pittman, and Trevor Lawrence
Fades: Mostly everyone else from Jacksvonille
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Browns began their post-OBJ story with a near perfect game last week as they dominated the Bengals. That was great to see for them, but I don’t see it continuing this week. The Browns are still without Kareem Hunt and are likely to be without Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton as well. Add in a banged up Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry and it is hard to have a lot of faith in this Browns offense against a top ten Patriots defense. Things are rolling right now for the Patriots, and they have quietly put up 24 or more points in 5 straight games. Their offense isn’t exactly explosive, and will have some issues against a tough Browns defense, but I think they do just enough to squeak out another win.
Targets: Jakobi Meyers and Patriots Defense
Fades: Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: D’Ernest Johnson — if Nick Chubb is out
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The main storyline on which we need to focus our attention immediately is the potential loss of two running backs for the Cleveland Browns. If both Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton can’t go, then D’Ernest Johnson would shoulder the workload. That’s outstanding for his volume, but the matchup against the New England Patriots puts him at risk. Head coach Bill Belichick is notorious for limiting opponents’ best players, and Johnson would be the focal point for the defense. That actually makes me like the Browns’ passing game a little more. On the opposite side of the matchup, the Patriots also have a question mark at the running back position where Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are in concussion protocol. In the end, I’m likely shying away from this game for offense, even though taking a chance with a pass-catcher or quarterback would help separate most lineups from the pack.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, D’Ernest Johnson, Jarvis Landry, and Jakobi Meyers
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Shame on the Bills for squandering an easy victory last week, but I am not going to put too much stock into that. Amidst their soft schedule this season, the Bills have won all five of their games by double digit points. Four of those five wins came against bottom-tier teams, and that is exactly what the Jets are. Mike White has performed admirably in the time he has had, but this Bills defense has feasted on lesser opponents all season which has led to them being the number one defense in the league in yards allowed and points against. The Bills are also aided by the fact that the Jets defense ranks last in the league in yards and points.
Targets: Devin Singletary, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Bills Defense, and Jamison Crowder
Fades: Mike White
Must-Owns: Josh Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The two obvious major storylines for the divisional game between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are the Bills’ shocking loss to the Jaguars and New York’s new starting quarterback: Mike White. When White started two weeks ago, I wrote that he was only worth the most extreme of risks, but even I couldn’t get myself to take such a chance. Now, that’s a much easier pill to swallow, even if you think the Jets get crushed in the game. I will look for Buffalo’s offense to rebound nicely after five consecutive games with decreasing scores, but the Jets have shown some life when White is under center, so there’s a chance that the Bills’ offense is limited again.
Targets: Mike White, Michael Carter, Elijah Moore, Stefon Diggs, and Emmanuel Sanders
Fades: None, but I’m not buying too heavily into Buffalo’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I foolishly let myself have high expectations for the Lions in their last game prior to their bye week, and they rewarded me to the tune of 6 points. That marks 7 straight games in which they have failed to reach 20 points. The lone time they broke that mark was in Week 1, and if you remember that game, it was hardly a good game, but more of a garbage time miracle. A game against the Steelers is hardly the time to turn things around as their defense is plenty capable of causing major headaches for opposing offenses. The Steelers may win this game comfortably, but it is still hard to buy into this offense that only succeeds by taking advantage of short fields and expecting their rookie running back to make something out of nothing every time he touches the ball.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson and Steelers Defense
Fades: Jared Goff
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Pittsburgh Steelers continue to win games with defense — even though last week’s Monday Night Football victory included a defensive breakdown and comeback effort on offense — and there’s simply no way I can trust the Detroit Lions against them. I’m sure the Lions used their bye week as best as possible, but do we have any faith in a head coach that publicly talked about how tough his team would be, only to enter the middle of November as the only winless organization in the league? I’m starting my targets in this matchup with both defenses, even if I ultimately add in a player from Pittsburgh’s offense.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and both defenses
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In an early slate loaded with games that I can see being one-sided, this game figures to be another one. In Washington’s last three games, they have scored a combined 33 points which simply isn’t going to help them win any games. Their defense has been a major disappointment this year following their incredible season last year, they currently sit at 29th in the league in both yards per game and points per game. That sets the stage for Tom Brady to come out of a bye week and slice and dice this defense who also ranks 32nd in the league in passing yards allowed per game. To allow the most passing yards per game while also playing from behind in seemingly every game is a major issue for Washington.
Targets: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Tyler Johnson, Buccaneers Defense, and Terry McLaurin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Mike Evans
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are easily one of the best teams in the NFC, while the Washington Football Teams is among the worst. Still, each has a curious area that can be utilized to our advantage on Sunday. For starters, both teams are returning from a bye week, so there’s a chance we get a solid effort from all angles. Washington’s defense is downright terrible this year — after being outstanding in 2020 — but the team stops the run quite well — seventh-fewest yards-allowed-per-carry. Why wouldn’t the Buccaneers throw? The other side of the matchup is almost identical, where it isn’t worth it to try to run against Tampa Bay. Throwing is the only path to success. We could be in for an aerial show on Sunday.
Targets: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Taylor Heinicke, J.D. McKissic, and Terry McLaurin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I am almost certainly going to have either McKissic or McLaurin in my lineups
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Although he isn’t expected to play this week, the boost that Carolina is going to feel from having Cam Newton back in the locker room is likely to be noticeable. This team has been scuffling big time in recent weeks, and the energy that Newton is able to bring could be the kind of move that helps them turn their season around. I especially like their odds if Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are out again this week. The Cardinals survived, and did so easily, in their absence last week, but this team isn’t built to withstand playing without their two best players. Carolina boasts a strong defense that will be able to slow down Colt McCoy enough to keep this game interesting.
Targets: DJ Moore and James Conner
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Obviously, the return of Cam Newton to the Carolina Panthers is going to dominate the headlines, but we’re in quite the tricky spot for Sunday’s game. It’s almost impossible to expect Newton to start but, if he travels to Arizona, won’t there be the threat that he may come in for a relief appearance? I actually like P.J. Walker as a random backup with some skills, but I can no longer trust that he will take all of the offensive snaps. I do expect the Panthers’ defense to play well in an attempt to keep the team afloat through the quarterback carousel, and that slightly lowers the ceiling for the Cardinals.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and James Conner
Fades: Most other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This matchup carries so much intrigue because these two teams are famous for finding ways to shock us whether our expectations are high or low. Every time you think you have them figured out, they ruin that perception. With all of that said, doesn’t it seem obvious that the 3-5 Vikings are going to beat the 5-3 Chargers? The clear path to how that happens is the Vikings running game manages to dominate a Chargers defense that is allowing an impossible 161.6 yards per game on the ground. The Vikings defense has hardly been elite in their own right, so expect this game to see plenty of offense.
Targets: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook — assuming his alleged off-field situation doesn’t impact his availability
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In my picks article, I joked about the potential of the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers playing to a tie. I won’t dismiss it entirely, but of course, one team has to break through against the opposing defense. The Chargers rank dead last in the league against the run — and the Vikings love to run the ball — while Minnesota’s defense is allowing the fifth-most yards-per-game. We’ve basically all been hurt before by these two teams, but targeting some offense here is a must.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook — as long as he is playing
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Denver definitely surprised the world last week when they completely dismantled the Cowboys, and now they get to face off with another NFC East opponent. The Eagles are not nearly as daunting, but this game is likely to finish much closer than last week’s game. The Eagles offense is far from spectacular, but they have found ways to generate enough production throughout the year to land 11th in the league in points for at this stage in the season. The Eagles defense has also been very tough to run against — 6th in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt — and that is the key to Denver’s offense. The moral of the story is that no player on either team — outside of the quarterbacks and Jordan Howard who has only played two games — averages more than 14 fantasy points per game. That speaks volumes to the low ceiling that these two offenses provide you on a weekly basis.
Targets: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Melvin Gordon III and Noah Fant
Fades: Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I struggled with landing on a side for the non-conference matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos, and that level of uncertainty extends to the fantasy world as well. Based on the numbers, isn’t quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos’ passing attack in a great position against the Eagles’ secondary? And isn’t Denver’s defense worse than the numbers appear, where Philadelphia could take advantage? The sneaky play here is to look for offense from both teams, and that might be the best approach if others shy away because of the lack of history between the teams.
Targets: Teddy Bridgewater, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One week removed from being robbed of an epic quarterback matchup, we are seemingly going to get a miracle matchup that seemed unlikely one week ago. Both teams in this game are expecting to have their starting quarterbacks under center, and that importance cannot be overstated. There may be no teams in the league that rely more heavily on their quarterbacks than Seattle and Green Bay. People may worry about Russell Wilson’s finger or how Aaron Rodgers will feel after his stay on the COVID list, but I have no hesitation. Rodgers and the Packers are bound to take advantage of a matchup against a bad Seahawks defense, especially if they get back their best offensive lineman in David Bakhtiari. That is going to mean that Russell Wilson will be busy trying to keep up, and after this incredibly quick recovery, and his commentary on how good he is feeling, how can we not believe he will come out and play great? This game has serious shootout appeal and may be our last chance for a while to buy low on these offenses.
Targets: DK Metcalf — if active — Tyler Lockett, Freddie Swain, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Fades: Murky Seahawks Running Back Situation
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, we are only working under the assumption that both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers will be back for the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers, respectively, and I’m buying into everyone if that were the case. In fairness, I would want offensive players no matter which quarterback starts simply because of the likely outcome that, when one team scores, the other will be forced to keep pace. There’s enough talent on the field to make it happen.
Targets: Both quarterbacks and all pass-catchers
Fades: All running backs
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders – Read Dan DeAngelis’ SNF Betting Guide Here
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: To me, this game is the definition of “high-scoring.” The Raiders are dealing with the loss of another player due to off the field issues, and eventually, all of the drama around this team is going to become disruptive. That is the perfect setup for the Chiefs to rebound from the three week slump they are in where they have scored just 36 points. It is not as if the Chiefs aren’t just as talented as they’ve always been or forgot how to play offense, so they are bound to break out again sooner rather than later. I will take my chances looking for that happening in a huge primetime, divisional battle. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is still bad, and two good games in a row against the Giants and the Jordan Love led Packers does not change that. Derek Carr is going to be busy playing keep up, but there is no reason to think he isn’t up to the task.
Targets: Essentially all key offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I know that I write about how much I hate ‘obvious’ outcomes all the time — and I absolutely do — but I can’t figure out how the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders stays low-scoring at all. Indeed, either defense could step up — and, in a two-game slate where we want to find a ‘contrarian’ play, then ignoring offense on Sunday Night Football is the way to go — but it simply isn’t likely. The Chiefs’ defense is still among the most porous in the league, while the offense is primed to explode after subpar outings in recent weeks. I’m fine with using any offensive player in this matchup.
Targets: Everyone on offense
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the Rams currently assembling a super team in Los Angeles, wouldn’t it be fitting for the 49ers to come off their blowout loss to Colt McCoy’s Cardinals and beat the Rams? Now maybe San Francisco isn’t going to pull off the victory, but it just feels impossible that they will get blown out two weeks in a row by divisional opponents with this one coming in a Primetime slot. How that happens is somewhat hard to gauge, but I am leaning towards them finding a way to slow this game down and keep it low scoring. The 49ers defense appears to be bad because they rank 26th in the league in points allowed. What many people will overlook is that they are 8th in the league in total yards allowed and 11th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. If the 49ers are able to establish the run game, I expect them to keep this close. Either way, these teams rely on a handful of players to carry the offensive load, so fantasy targets are usually fairly obvious with these teams.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Eli Mitchell, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In terms of against-the-spread picks, I love the Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. In terms of DFS? Not so much. The Rams basically forgot to show up to their Primetime game just last week, and I can’t fathom that happens in back-to-back weeks. The 49ers also put forth a dud in their matchup, and it was arguably more unacceptable as they were beaten by Colt McCoy, the backup quarterback for Arizona. The most likely outcome is that the two teams go back to their preferred identities, where San Francisco runs the ball with a bevy of players while the Rams throw incessantly to Cooper Kupp. If the newly-acquired Odell Beckham, Jr. does see the field, I would imagine he also sees some passes, but he would only make sense in a Showdown lineup.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Odell Beckham, Jr. — if active — Eli Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp