The playoff field has been narrowed down to eight teams, but they present four of the best matchups we could want for DFS purposes. There is talent everywhere, and it’s no surprises that these are eight of the remaining offenses now that we have reached the middle of January.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week I made the pitch that the Bengals are pretty much an automatic 20-plus points with great upside, and they went out and did exactly what they should have in scoring 26 points. The Titans defense has had an up-and-down year, but they are not likely to completely shut down an offense that has reached 15 or more points in every game this year. The Bengals may not be my favorite offense of the week, but they are about as safe a team to target as any. The only real question mark for me in this game is the status of Derrick Henry. Based on all reports that I’ve heard, Henry should be out on the field come Saturday afternoon. With that, the question becomes will he see the 30 carries he’d normally see in a playoff game, or will his touches be limited? It may be aggressive, but I am all in on the Titans leaning heavily on the superstar running back right away as their offense has simply not been the same without him. If the Titans are going to go on a run to the Super Bowl, Henry will be at the center of it.
Targets: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: You know the storyline. I shouldn’t have to write it. Running Back Derrick Henry might return to action on Saturday for the Tennessee Titans. If he does, then I’m ‘all-in.’ Indeed, we might hear that he is limited, but Henry’s regular workload is so outrageous that “limiting” him might still keep him above the average. Elsewhere, we can look for the Titans to play well on offensive with-or-without Henry simply by virtue of what they have accomplished over the course of the season — they averaged more than 28 points-per-game through the first nine weeks of the season, slowed down without Henry, and then scored a combined 62 points in the last two weeks of the year. Of course, I write on a weekly basis that the Cincinnati Bengals deliver at least 22 points on a regular basis, so there is no reason to look for defense in this matchup.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Dontrell Hilliard, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and C.J. Uzomah
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Packers being the best team in the league again this year was a wildly impressive accomplishment given their offseason turmoil and Week 1 trainwreck. The fact that their first playoff game has to come against a 49ers team that had dominated them in recent years is the type of amazing coincidence that the NFL always seems to stumble into. The question for me is where do I put my investment in the way that the Packers took care of business against the 49ers in Week 3 to really turn their season around, or the history between these two teams? Given the way the Packers have played on both sides of the ball this year, I have to give them the benefit of the doubt. I cannot expect the 49ers to win another playoff game while asking so little of their quarterback considering my stance that playoff games almost always come down to the quarterback battle. I don’t care what their history has been, Aaron Rodgers is playing like the best football player in the world, and I am fully buying into his revenge season part two.
Targets: Eli Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon and Davante Adams
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: Aaron Rodgers
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Earlier in the year, when the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers first met, I wrote about the old storyline that followed this matchup. It was tilted extremely in the favor of the 49ers’ rushing attack where, in big spots, San Francisco would cruise to victory. That hasn’t happened lately, but the potential is there. The key, however, is that the Packers are operating like a well-oiled machine on offense, and I can’t expect that to falter, even without a week of action. I doubt we will see a full explosion of offense from this matchup largely because both defenses sit in the top-nine for fewest yards allowed-per-game.
Targets: Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, Eli Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It seems fitting that the Rams and Buccaneers would meet up in this round after the way they both dismantled their Wild Card round opponents. The Buccaneers continue to impress offensively despite all of the key players they are missing, but this week provides an entirely different challenge. The Rams defense has not allowed a team to reach 30 points since Week 12, and is fresh off a dominating performance against a talented Cardinals offense. The only way to truly slow down Tom Brady is to continuously get pressure in his face, and the way the Rams defense played last week, that may be possible this week. While he may not have been asked to do an awful lot, it seemed like Matthew Stafford finally shed the “can’t win a big game” narrative. The Rams leaned heavily on the run game, but Stafford was all but perfect when his number was called upon. With that weight finally lifted off of his shoulders, I think we see Stafford get better and better as we get further into the playoffs. This game will likely come down to which team can put together the last scoring drive, and my gut is telling me we see Stafford outduel Brady in a truly great quarterback matchup.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Cam Akers, Odell Beckham Jr., Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson and Rob Gronkowski
Fades: Sony Michel
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Wherever you look, there will be offensive starpower between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams, but I am going to lower my expectations slightly. The Buccaneers simply do not lose playoff games, and they have managed to win in a number of different ways. Still, at their core, they are an offensive-driven team led by the greatest quarterback of All-Time. The Rams can match them, though, as they have the talent. The difference is that Los Angeles converts to a run-heavy team in playoff games when possible. I’m definitely not avoiding the passing game from either side, as this could turn into a back-and-forth battle, but there is some hidden value with the running backs — especially with how difficult it has been to run against the Buccaneers throughout the season.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Sunday night showdown is being billed as arguably the best possible matchup we could have in the playoffs. The over-under is likely going to be the highest number we see all postseason, and the entire world is looking for a high-scoring, epic battle. While I completely see all the logic behind that thinking, I simply am not buying it. For starters, Both of these teams put up over 40 points last week, and that is not something that is easy to follow up. Another thing that is not easy to follow up is the fact that the Bills had a legitimately perfect game. Excluding the final possession of kneel-downs, they scored a touchdown on every single possession. It may not be the best argument, but it is simply too easy to sit here and write about how high-scoring this game is going to be. I expect that the Chiefs are going to win this game, and it is going to come at the hands of their much improved defense that always seems to step up as we get deeper into the season and playoffs especially.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Chiefs Defense
Fades: Running Backs for both teams
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I mentioned “offensive starpower” in the prior game, but we have plenty of playmakers in the weekend finale. That sets up for a high-flying contest. Except, the defenses are quite good in their own right. I have argued against the Buffalo Bills’ numbers based on games against weak opposing offenses, but Buffalo did hold the Kansas City Chiefs to just 20 points in their earlier meeting. Kansas City’s defense has also emerged over the latter portion of the season, but there are still holes. Overall, I’m not avoiding anyone from the Chiefs and carefully targeting players from the Bills. When pushed, however, I am inclined to lean away from offense in this game as a combination of the other matchups and the path to disappointment here.
Targets: Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Chiefs defense
Fades: Josh Allen
Must-Owns: None