There is simply no way around looking at the pair of games ahead of us and trying to figure out how they could match last weekend’s outstanding conclusions. The good news is that, while we always place a high value on game flow, there are some clear-cut options that would be viable targets in almost any game situation.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Conference Championship NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We saw arguably the best weekend of playoff football ever last with all four games being decided on the final play of the game. After that, I feel like we are destined for two blowouts this weekend. I have been buying into the Bengals’ run lately, but I think their magic is running out. After a tremendous regular season, their offense has managed 26 and 19 points which is quite disappointing when you account for the 5 turnovers that their defense has created for them. The Chiefs’ defense is far from elite, but with the way the Bengals’ offensive line is struggling, I can’t be as high on the Bengals’ offense as I have been previously. There were weeks early in the season where I was beginning to feel crazy as I continued to support the Chiefs, but they eventually figured things out, and now have been reminding me for months why I never lost faith. Last week’s miraculous victory was the final reminder I needed to simply never pick against this team. Their offense is beyond special, and when the game is on the line in the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes is not going to let them lose. The Bengals have made a believer out of me, but I think they fall short this week against Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Targets: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Joe Burrow
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whenever the Kansas City Chiefs take the field, it’s a game of ‘stars.’ Not only is that the case on Sunday, but the Cincinnati Bengals also bring their own starpower to the matchup. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been the ‘go-to’ player for the Bengals’ passing attack all season, while Joe Mixon has shouldered a massive workload when healthy. Both are clear targets, but Chase will draw attention from both DFS players and the Chiefs’ defense. He absolutely dominated Kansas City — basically single-handedly — when the two teams met a few weeks ago — eleven catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns! Those are video game numbers. Ultimately, the opening few sentences of this writeup can be applied as a whole: target the stars and fill in where necessary.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, C.J. Uzomah, Travis Kelce, and either defense is in-play based on how aggressive you need to be for a lineup
Fades: Chiefs running backs
Must-Owns: Tyreek Hill
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I feel like a contradiction at this point considering how high my expectations were for the 49ers all season, but their playoff run has to end now. I am pleased that my early season belief in them turned out to be valid, but I cannot root for, or expect, a team to keep winning in the playoffs when their quarterback has contributed 303 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions through 2 playoff games. I like the 49ers, but I preach that quarterbacks are far and away the most important player on the team, especially in the playoffs, and that type of production cannot lead to more wins. That feeling is amplified by how well the Rams have been playing in the playoffs. Following complete domination of the Cardinals — who happens to be another division opponent — the Rams came out and assaulted the reigning Super Bowl champion Bucs for three quarters. A series of really unacceptable turnovers by the Rams let the Buccaneers back into the game, but Matthew Stafford cemented himself as the Rams’ guy with his last-minute, game-winning field goal drive. The Rams are simply the much better team right now, and I think they snap their 6-game losing streak to the 49ers with a massive victory over a division rival that they owe some payback to.
Targets: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Higbee, and Rams Defense
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo and Eli Mitchell
Must-Owns: Cam Akers (it is risky, but I am buying into Sean McVay giving him a shot at redemption despite his fumbles last week)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Obviously, with only two games on the slate, there can only be so much differentiation between the matchups. While I wrote about the Chiefs and Bengals being full of stars, the same is true for the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The issue is that almost all of the starpower resides in Los Angeles, where it’s Deebo Samuel and George Kittle from the 49ers, followed by a massive drop-off to everyone else. That doesn’t mean that we can’t dig into the depth pool and find some value. After all, the 49ers love to attack with an arsenal of running backs, so taking a chance there is probably worth the risk. The same is actually true for the Rams, where we should see some mix of Cam Akers and Sony Michel, as well as the possible return of Darrell Henderson, Jr. Of course, there is no way around using wide receiver Cooper Kupp, regardless of his high price tag.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Cam Akers, Sony Michel, Darrell Henderson, Jr., Odell Beckham, Jr., Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, Rams defense, any running back from the 49ers, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp