While the start of the postseason might bring a smaller slate, we have a solid six games ahead of us between Saturday and Sunday. With that, we have an excellent set of opportunities from all angles.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Wild Card Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bills are one of the biggest favorites of Wild Card Weekend, and while I understand the reasoning, I’m not quite buying it. Before you jump to assuming I’m just hating on the Bills, my feelings here are more based on the Colts than the Bills. The Colts may be the seven seed in the AFC, but they are not your typical seven seed by any means. The Colts finished the regular season with an 11-5 record, and four of their loses came against teams with at least eleven wins of their own for the season. On top of that, the Colts managed to earn that record on the backs on one of the most balanced teams in the league which is evident by the fact that they finished the season in the top ten of total offense and defense in terms of both points and yards. The Bills have been playing very well, and they likely win this game thanks to having the higher end talent, but this Colts team is far from a pushover, and I think they keep this game very competitive.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Allen and Cole Beasley
Fades: Philip Rivers, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary
Must-Owns: Stefon Diggs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There’s almost no way that the Buffalo Bills offense goes completely cold, this weekend, but I’m also hesitant before loading up with players from the Bills. The Indianapolis Colts have had a solid defense for the majority of the season, but started slipping in the latter weeks. That “slipping” coincided with a better offense, though, as the Colts averaged 26 points-per-game through the first 8 games and 30.4 points-per-game in the second eight — reaching at least 24 points every time. The key for fantasy purposes is that people tend to shy away from the Colts because they spread the ball around so much — they do — but this gives us a nice opportunity to target an offense that will likely be ignored. Factor in the Bills’ defense and its mediocre numbers — as well as inefficient run defense — and we have a clear path for offense from Indianapolis.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis
Fades: Josh Allen in a classic contest
Must-Owns: Josh Allen in a Showdown only
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it may not be official yet, I am working under the assumption that the Rams will be starting John Wolford again this week, and that does not bode well for the Rams. Wolford may have done enough to get a win last week, but that came against a Cardinals team that played most of the game without Kyler Murray. Looking at a playoff game where the quarterback matchup is Russell Wilson against John Wolford, I cannot seriously consider this being a very close game. I am normally high on the Rams for a slew of reasons, but their coaching and defense won’t be enough to make up the difference in quarterback play this week. The Seahawks offense won’t be my top target of the weekend by any means because of their matchup, but they should have enough opportunities that they’ll eventually carve out a comfortable lead.
Targets: Cam Akers, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Seahawks defense
Fades: Rams passing game
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For the sake of finding an edge, I am crossing my fingers and eagerly hoping that quarterback Jared Goff plays for the Los Angeles Rams. This is because neither an injured Goff or a healthy John Wolford should be expected to do much against the Seattle Seahawks in a playoff game. I’m a believer in Rams head coach Sean McVay, but he found a working gameplan under adverse conditions against an inexperienced Cardinals team. That won’t go as well against the Seahawks. There is a concern with Seattle, however. Los Angeles features the best defense in the league — in yards allowed — and is the most important road to victory. That does lower the ceiling a bit for a potentially explosive Seattle offense.
Targets: Robert Woods, Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Seahawks’ defense
Fades: Jared Goff/John Wolford
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Bruce Arians warned Chase Young to be careful about what he wishes for after the rookie called out Tom Brady, but Arians should be careful with what he wished for as well. Arians and the Buccaneers risked their starters, and potentially lost Mike Evans due to injury, in last week’s game to ensure they played the NFC East winner in the first round of the playoffs. Well, Arians got his wish, and all opinions seem to be that the Buccaneers are going to cruise to victory, but I am not so sure about that. The Buccaneers’ offense has looked elite recently, but big wins against the Falcons and Lions, both with nothing to play for, do little sway my opinion of this Buccaneers team. They have had their moments throughout the year, but they have also struggled mightily in every night game they have played, and they have struggled against the better defenses they have played. A Saturday night game against one of the toughest defenses in the league is arguably the worst first round set up the Buccaneers could have. I don’t love to lean heavily on non-statistical thinking, but I cannot discredit the value of what Washington has overcome this season. Between playing without a real team, having their Head Coach, Ron Rivera, battle cancer during the season and rallying around the heroic return of Alex Smith amid all the other quarterback controversy and now being completely disregarded because of their record and “fake” division championship, this is a Washington team that is not going to go down without a fight. In the end, they may not have the talent on offense to win this game, but I am expecting it to be much closer than most people want it to be.
Targets: Ronald Jones II, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Buccaneers defense, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin and Washington Football Team defense
Fades: Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am thoroughly intrigued and excited about the Saturday night matchup between the Washington Football Team and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it holds less fantasy appeal than I would like. The reality is that Washington will either pull off the ‘upset’ — or keep the game close — by way of an outstanding defensive effort or the Buccaneers will simply cruise to victory. If the former happens, I can’t see how we pick-and-choose pass-catchers from a Tampa Bay team with a lowered ceiling. If we get the latter, I’m still not in love with the idea of finding the ‘right’ player from the Buccaneers, but the offense has been so outstanding that there will be enough fantasy points to distribute to the main players. As an added storyline, we can’t overlook how much Tampa Bay has struggled in night games.
Targets: Ronald Jones II, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, and Washington Football Team defense
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As someone who has been typically tough on Baltimore for the duration of Lamar Jackson’s time as the starter, I would not want to see my team facing Baltimore right now. They are the team that fought through a poor start and a ton of adversity this season before suddenly turning on the jets and returning to the dominant football everyone expected from them. I am not entirely convinced their offensive style is sustainable through four playoff games, but I think it can get the job done in one game just fine. The Ravens have been hearing for two years now that they can’t win a playoff game, and they especially owe the Titans payback after ruining last season. The Titans are also coming off an ugly loss to the Packers and a narrow victory over the lowly Texans, so seemingly everything is in Baltimore’s favor in my mind. Baltimore is a somewhat heavy favorite across sportsbooks as the road team for a reason this week.
Targets: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Mark Andrews, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Lamar Jackson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans is probably my favorite for fantasy potential. That’s not surprising. It’s going to be everyone’s favorite for fantasy potential, and we’re seeing this in the point total that has continued to grow. Considering that this game is already the ‘obvious’ offensive one, I want to take a less obvious route. That involves partially fading the Titans’ running game — meaning Derrick Henry — and leaning on the passing attack. We’ve seen quarterback Ryan Tannehill throw in key spots throughout the year, but we also saw how the Titans took the ball out of his hands in the playoffs. That worked for awhile, but it’s ultimately a necessity to throw. Tannehill has grown over the last year as a passer, and I’m not afraid to lean on him on Sunday. The Ravens have shifted much of their ‘committee’ approach to allowing J.K. Dobbins to be the featured running back, but I always remain skeptical that a former committee won’t reemerge without a moment’s notice. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is obviously a ‘must-play’ in any Showdown format, but I also want to try to pinpoint a pass-catcher for any other type of slate.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee’s pass-catchers, J.K. Dobbins, Marquise Brown, and Mark Andrews
Fades: Lamar Jackson in a classic contest
Must-Owns: Lamar Jackson in a Showdown contest
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This appears to be the most lopsided game of the week on paper, and I am having a hard time finding a reason to bet against that. The Bears took care of business during an impressive three game win streak, but upon closer review, that win streak shouldn’t be considered all that impressive. Those three wins came against the Texans, Jaguars and Vikings — three teams with losing records and horrendous defenses. Outside of those three games, this is a Bears team that lost each of their other seven games since Week 7. I don’t see how I can have much faith in this offense against a Saints defense that has turned into a top-five defense in the league by every major metric. The Saints’ offense has been far from perfect, but no matter what they’ve gone through this season, they have scored 21 or more points in every single game of the season. That type of consistent production is nearly unheard of, and with them hoping to get back their two superstar playmakers in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, I have to think that streak continues as the Saints cruise to a first round victory.
Targets: Allen Robinson II, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara (if active), Michael Thomas (if active), Emmanuel Sanders (primarily if Kamara and/or Thomas are out) and Jared Cook
Fades: Mitchell Trubisky and David Montgomery
Must-Owns: Saints defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I want to be careful before diving too heavily into either offense from the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints, and it is a combination of both the matchup and what we have seen in recent history. The Bears are the easier team to fade for the obvious reason of the shaky play with quarterback Mitch Trubisky as well as a head-to-head battle with one of the best defenses in the league. Indeed, Trubisky has played better — and his legs give him a higher fantasy ceiling — but he recently beat up on bad defenses. The Saints have done nothing put provide offense since quarterback Drew Brees joined the team 15 years ago, but we did start to see some signs of decline from Brees earlier in the season. Factor in an underlying injury and the bad matchup against a solid Bears defense and we have the opportunity for a lower-scoring game. We also do have the additional storyline of both running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas returning to action, and I am more intrigued by the latter. Kamara’s role is guaranteed, but he also loses touches to Latavius Murray and Taysom Hill. Thomas is generally dominating targets when he’s in the lineup.
Targets: Latavius Murray, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, and David Montgomery
Fades: Mitchell Trubisy and much of the offense in this game from both teams
Must-Owns: Allen Robinson II and Michael Thomas (if healthy)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: From the moment their matchup ended in Week 17, my mind was made up that the Steelers were going to blow the Browns out in this game. This Browns team is clearly a major improvement on Browns teams of the past, but they do not seem like they are ready to win the big games. With the season winding down, and every game being critical, the Browns lost a Week 16 game to the New York Jets and then needed a two-point conversion stop in the final two minutes to hang on to victory against a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers team. With the Steelers getting Ben Roethlisberger, and key defensive players a week of rest last week, I fully expect them to take care of business this week and show the Browns they still have work to be done. All of that was made up in my mind before news of Browns head coach, Kevin Stefanski, testing positive for COVID-19 and not being able to coach this week. Removing a head coach from any team for a game is going to cause major issues, but taking Stefanski away from this inexperienced Browns team feels like a blow they won’t be able to sustain.
Targets: Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Eric Ebron (if active)
Fades: Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb
Must-Owns: Steelers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The final game of the weekend is also the one with the most moving parts. The absence of head coach Kevin Stefanski is not a great sign for the potential of the Cleveland Browns — especially against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has shut them down earlier in the year — but it does give us an opportunity for offense. Stefanski insists — wisely — that the running backs carry the workload on a given week. Without his input and with the game potentially getting out-of-hand, there’s a chance quarterback Baker Mayfield reverts to his pass-happy ways. That isn’t great for Cleveland, but it does help boost their wide receivers in a fantasy lineup. Wide receivers are all that I’m targeting from Pittsburgh, even though there are plenty of options. The Steelers don’t link gameplan with game flow. They throw constantly in any situation.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, all pass-catchers and both quarterbacks from both teams, but with a priority placed on Steelers
Fades: James Conner and both defenses
Must-Owns: Diontae Johnson