Where Week 3 was filled with great matchups, Week 4 is filled with change. We have a quarterback change in Chicago as well as a change in the schedule, itself. As always, we will also have future changes in the health of key players as we approach the start of the main slate.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Call me crazy, but I’m not suddenly buying back into the Bears after their Nick Foles led comeback against the Falcons. The Colts have not allowed more than 151 passing yards in a game yet, nor has an opponent had more than 260 yards of total offense in a game. I don’t care who they have played, those numbers are downright dominant. The Colts’ offense should be efficient enough to allow their defense to continue controlling the game. I don’t have a ton of interest in this game as a whole, but I’m far more interested in the Colts side of it.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton
Fades: Nick Foles
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve come around to the idea that quarterback Nick Foles and the Chicago Bears’ offense will have some success on Sunday, but I’m looking at this as more of a boost for the wide receivers than a situation in which I want to start Foles. The Indianapolis Colts do have the best pass defense in the league. On the other side of the game, the Bears have allowed the seventh-most yards-per-rush, which means I’m certainly leaning on Jonathan Taylor — who also has nine receptions through three games.
Targets: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Jonathan Taylor
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have to give the Bengals some credit for finding a way to be in position to win every game they’ve been in this year, but they really have not looked good in doing so. They rank in the bottom-ten in yards on offense and defense, and that is simply a recipe for disaster. The Jaguars are coming off a horrible Thursday night showing, and the extra time to prepare for this game should allow them to be ready for this matchup. I’m expecting a nice rebound performance for Gardner Minshew II as the Jaguars surprisingly improve to 2-2 on the year.
Targets: Gardner Minshew II, James Robinson, DJ Chark Jr. (if healthy), Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault Jr., Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green and Tee Higgins
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense could not possibly have looked worse on Thursday Night Football, and it seems unlikely that it will now sink to an even lower depth. The Cincinnati Bengals’ defense does not strike fear in the hearts of anyone, and the run defense is more-than-beatable. This game actually has some sneaky high-scoring upside with how much we have seen both quarterbacks throw, and I am definitely looking for offense somewhere between the two teams.
Targets: Gardner Minshew II, James Robinson, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, and A.J. Green
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is likely to be a game that draws a lot of fantasy attention this week due to the way the Cowboys have been playing both on offense and on defense. While that is understandable, this will be the first time in the past few weeks that I will be off a Cowboys game. The Browns’ offense has looked mediocre at best through the air, so even if their running game is at its best, they shouldn’t be expected to put up a ton of points in this matchup. We know what the Cowboys are capable of, but they cannot be happy to have Dak Prescott throwing this many passes and playing these high scoring games that they’ve been in. Look for them to try and lean on Ezekiel Elliott and try to reestablish their run game in order to control the ball rather than play the aerial attack style they’ve been forced into recently.
Targets: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt
Fades: Passing game for both teams
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’ve seen nothing but offense in any game that involves the Dallas Cowboys, but the reality is that both the Cowboys and their opponents have moved the ball well in a given matchup. Realistically, nothing is off the table for either team, but it is clear that the Cleveland Browns prefer to run more than throw — as evidenced by the third-fewest pass attempts and fifth-most rushing attempts. Good thing, too, as the Browns rank 24th in net-yards-per-pass-attempt and fourth-best in yards-per-carry.
Targets: All running backs
Fades: Both quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While we loved to see the Lions fulfill our expectations like week, my expectations for them are not the same this week. The Saints are simply too talented of a football team to be 1-3, and I refuse to accept any outcome in this game other than a Saints comfortable victory. The Lions’ defense has been incredibly poor against the run, and I am expecting Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to have big games this week.
Targets: Latavius Murray
Fades: Lions Offense
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I continue to write about how New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees appears to be struggling to reach his normal level of production, but he will face a Detroit Lions team allowing the fifth-most yards and do so inside of a dome. Really, the Lions can’t stop the run — second-worst in yards-per-rush — which means that Alvin Kamara, again, is a ‘must-play.’ New Orleans defense ranks much better against the run than pass, so quarterback Matthew Stafford and his pass-catchers are all fine options.
Targets: Most offensive players from both teams
Fades: Lions running backs
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is a game that will see tons of ownership throughout contests this week, but that ownership will not be from me. Yes, Seattle’s defense has been horrible, and yes, Russell Wilson is unstoppable, but this game has ‘letdown’ written all over it in the scoring department. For starters, I cannot expect a Ryan Fitzpatrick led offense to turn in two consecutive very good games. I don’t care what the status of the Seahawks’ defense is, Fitzpatrick is likely to revert back to his mediocre standard. I’m expecting the Seahawks offense to lean on the run and control this game throughout.
Targets: Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf
Fades: Dolphins Offense
Must-Owns: Carlos Hyde (assuming Chris Carson is out as expected)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The obvious assumption for Sunday’s game between the Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins is that Seattle rolls through Miami and lays waste to the Dolphins. Maybe, but the Seahawks’ defense has allowed the most yards in the league. Even if Seattle pulls away and never stops scoring, Miami has a clear path to offense. There is a chance that the game stays lower-scoring, however, as Seattle could have an offensive letdown after three consecutive games of scoring at least 35 points and back-to-back home games in the spotlight.
Targets: Carlos Hyde (if Chris Carson is out), DeVante Parker, and Preston Williams
Fades: None in particular, but I’m not going overboard with this game
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is not a game I like much for fantasy, but I do love it for the fact that the Buccaneers are receiving far too much love. Simply put, the Buccaneers have not been all that impressive, and the Chargers have quietly been very good on offense and defense. The Chargers are one of the unspectacular, but well-rounded teams that should match up well with this Buccaneers team. I like the Chargers to pull off the ‘upset’ in this one.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Chargers Defense and Rob Gronkowski
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, I am proceeding with the expectation that quarterback Justin Herbert will start for the Los Angeles Chargers. With that, I have no problem leaning on Herbert and possibly another player from Los Angeles. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have the fourth-best defense — in yards — but they still allowed 427 yards to the Panthers. In fairness to both teams, the two defenses are in the top-eight for yards allowed, and this might be a quietly low-scoring game.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and both defenses
Fades: Most of both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Ravens looked nothing short of incompetent against the Chiefs last week, and that is because they were able to force Lamar Jackson to have to beat them with his arm. The key to doing that is jumping out to a lead, and that is not something I expect Washington to be able to do. Their offense has been completely inept, and it will allow the Ravens to play their game which is good defense, and endless assault on the ground. Expect a big ‘bounceback’ game from the Ravens in this matchup.
Targets: Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram II
Fades: Washington Football Team
Must-Owns: Ravens Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Washington Football Team is going to have quite an uphill battle against a Baltimore Ravens squad that was never competitive in its Primetime loss to the Chiefs. There’s a realistic chance that Baltimore releases its frustration on Washington by relentlessly and mercilessly scoring. This obviously puts the Ravens’ running backs in a position to succeed. I keep writing about how Washington’s defense is good, however, and it will certainly be tested here. The team’s offense is horrific, but Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas would be thrust into more prominent roles if Washington is throwing for the majority of the afternoon.
Targets: Mark Ingram II, J.K. Dobbins, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas
Fades: Everyone else from Washington
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week’s results may not show it, but the Cardinals have been a much better football team this season. The Cardinals are in the top-ten in the league in yards of offense and defense while the Panthers rank 16th in offense and 22nd in defense. I am fully expecting a rebound game here for the Cardinals as they get back into the win column with a big victory.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis
Fades: None
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Carolina Panthers finally got their first win of the season in the same week that the Arizona Cardinals suffered their first loss. We are possibly looking at a big rebound from the Cardinals, but the reality is that the Panthers’ defense has been beatable regardless of the game script or outcome. This is actually not the case for Arizona, where it ranks seventh-best in yards and has not allowed more than 243 passing yards in a single game, all year. We’ll see offense, but I’m not sold that it will be a back-and-forth slugfest.
Targets: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins (if healthy), Larry Fitzgerald (especially if Hopkins is out), and Mike Davis
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is no game this week that is loaded with more desperation than this one as both of these preseason projected playoff teams currently sit at 0-3 on the year. Both teams have been disappointing on both sides of the ball, but the Vikings feel like they should be the better team, and they have a coaching staff that I trust much more than that of the Texans. I’ll be betting on a Vikings win here, but not with a ton of confidence, and this won’t be a game I target heavily this week due to massive uncertainty within both teams.
Targets: Dalvin Cook and Will Fuller V
Fades: Most of this game for both teams
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a temporary delay, it looks like the Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans will play as scheduled on Sunday. This opens the door for two desperate 0-3 teams to show us the best they can offer. Thankfully for fantasy purposes, the Vikings and Texans both rank in the bottom-four for points allowed. By all accounts, we’re set up for a high-scoring affair on Sunday. It’s also worth noting that both quarterbacks rank in the top-seven for intended-air-yards-per-pass-attempt. In other words, when they throw, they throw downfield.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Probably Adam Thielen
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: To say the Giants have been bad would be the understatement of the season. They just got embarrassed by essentially the 49ers’ practice squad, and things aren’t looking much better this week. The Rams should be able to completely dominate on both sides of the ball. Don’t overthink this game.
Targets: Darrell Henderson Jr., Malcolm Brown, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods
Fades: Giants Offense
Must-Owns: Rams Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Much like the aforementioned game between Washington and Baltimore, it’s tough to make a case that the New York Giants find offense in bunches against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. But, we do have to be fair and recognize that New York still ranks 12th-best in yards allowed. In addition, the Rams have a bevy of threats to score on offense, so this game might be more of a fantasy disappointment than it appears on the surface. The good news for the Rams is that the Giants can’t hold onto the football — fourth-most giveaways in the league — so Los Angeles’ defense is obviously in-play.
Targets: Darrell Henderson Jr. and Rams’ Defense
Fades: Giants’ Offense, and I’m not going too heavy with the Rams’ offense
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there is any team that I think has a chance to slow down the Chiefs, it is Bill Belichick and the Patriots. With that said, I think the best way to do that is to keep their offense off the field, and that is something the Patriots may be able to do effectively. They have the third most rushing attempts on the year and the most rushing yards while the Chiefs defense is ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed and 28th in yards per attempt. I think the Chiefs’ offense still finds a way to win this game, but it will be a slower-paced game than people are hoping which probably limits the fantasy upside of most players.
Targets: Cam Newton, James White, Rex Burkhead, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Travis Kelce
Fades: Both team’s Wide Receivers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Arguably the marquee matchup of Week 4 is the late-afternoon showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. Coming off of a nationally-televised win, the Chiefs clearly look unstoppable. But, if there’s a team and head coach that can, at least, slow down quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense, it’s the Patriots and Bill Belichick. New England also runs the ball extremely well, so there’s a likely gameplan the Patriots will follow, especially as the Chiefs rank fifth-worst defensively in yards-per-rush. Still, I’m never counting out Kansas City and Mahomes.
Targets: All offensive players, although not in a game stack
Fades: Both team’s wide receivers
Must-Owns:
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is, without question, one of the most uncomfortable games of the week for me. In theory, the Raiders should be able to utilize their effective run game to control the clock and limit their defensive weaknesses to make this a close game. That is the direction I’m leaning, but the Raiders’ defense is definitely vulnerable, so if The Bills jump out to a lead and cruise to victory I won’t be shocked by that outcome either.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller
Fades: Derek Carr
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’ve seen star talent on both teams, and it has generally come from Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills and Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders. I’m targeting both of them as the focal points of their respective offenses. The irony is that the game script might not favor those two in particular, and that is one of the problems with this matchup. Still, I’m not looking for major fantasy contributions from many angles.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None, although Diggs or Jacobs will likely be in the bulk of my lineups
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In the battle of the two most physically broken teams in the NFL, I’m rolling with the idea that the Eagles finally bring their A-game and shock the world with a victory. It is hard to fully say which players to like due to all of the injuries, but the Eagles are a better team than what they have shown, and in a nationally televised game on Sunday night, I have to think they finally show up — no matter which players are healthy enough to play.
Targets: Miles Sanders, Greg Ward, whoever is the top 49ers running back that is healthy and Brandon Aiyuk
Fades: Nick Mullens
Must-Owns: Zach Ertz
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The San Francisco 49ers showed they could win a football game with a skeleton crew, but they will be asked to do it again and do so on national television. Maybe it happens, and it probably takes the offense outpacing the defense. Either way, I’m not counting out the Philadelphia Eagles and their winless record. The Eagles need to start grabbing victories, and it puts the top skill position players in position to carry the rest of the team.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders, Greg Ward, 49ers Running Backs, and George Kittle (if healthy)
Fades: Nick Mullens and 49ers Defense
Must-Owns: Zach Ertz
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Of all of the obvious high-scoring games we’ve had this season, this one could be the most glaring one to attack yet. So far, Falcons games have had an average points total of 66 while Packers games have averaged 68 points. The Packers’ offense has arguably been the best in the league so far, and the Falcons defense has been arguably the worst in the league so far. With the Falcons almost guaranteed to be giving up points at will, we know they will let Matt Ryan fire away to try and keep up, and we know he is more than capable of piling up yards and points while playing from behind.
Targets: Any of the obvious targets for either offense
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: No one player in particular but this game is a must target
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m never one to take the obvious route, but I find it nearly impossible for either team to struggle offensively on Monday night. At their worst, the Atlanta Falcons are still marching up-and-down the field — even if they aren’t scoring. And the Green Bay Packers have done nothing but march up-and-down the field and score. I’m not splitting the atom here, but basically everyone is in-play.
Targets: Everyone
Fades: No one
Must-Owns: None