In answering the question often asked at the start of games, we are ready for some football! It’s been too long between games and, as a result, between building DFS lineups. Without further ado, we dive into each matchup of the Opening Week and break it down for DFS purposes.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This season is starting off continuing a trend of last year – avoid games the Bills are playing in. Their defense is still very good and should be able to mostly shut down the questionable Jets offense. Despite the addition of Stefon Diggs, I’m having a hard time seeing this offense take a major step forward. Add to that the fact that the Jets always seem to find a way to play their division rivals closely, and I’m avoiding this game all the way.
Targets: Defenses
Fades: All Offensive Players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I won’t lean too heavily on this game for fantasy purposes, there might be some overlooked value in at least one place. New York Jets wide receiver is a target machine when Sam Darnold is under center, and he caught 22 passes on 27 looks in his two games against the Buffalo Bills in 2019.
Targets: Jamison Crowder
Fades: Le’Veon Bell
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For as long as Mitchell Trubisky is the Bears’ starting quarterback, I will have a hard time feeling good about their offense. I also feel as if the Lions are a team that is being overlooked and can definitely make some noise this season. Their offense is quietly loaded with talent and makes for an appealing target this week against a Bears defense many people will shy away from targeting players against.
Targets: Tarik Cohen, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: Mitchell Trubisky and the crowded Lions running back situation
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is some tremendous potential for value here, as name recognition is sure to play a role in the matchup between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears. Namely, people think defense when they hear “Chicago Bears” and that should depreciate some of the ownership for the Lions’ offense. I’m not so sure we should ignore Detroit.
Targets: Matthew Stafford and Detroit’s pass-catchers
Fades: Chicago’s Defense
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game understandably has one of the higher projected game totals, and it is easy to see why. You have two offenses that are returning a large portion of their key players – led by their highly skilled quarterbacks. Both offenses should be able to put points up on the board in what figures to be one of the better games of the opening week. There are some definite question marks in Todd Gurley’s usage and how insistent the Seahawks will be on running the ball, but there is definite appeal in this game.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Greg Olsen, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Hayden Hurst
Fades: Todd Gurley and Defenses
Must-Owns: None — but Hayden Hurst feels like tremendous value
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I don’t see any way that this game isn’t competitive through to the end, and I like to lean on the proven playmakers when that happens. This thrusts the quarterback-wide receiver pairings of Russell Wilson with Tyler Lockett and Matt Ryan with Julio Jones into the spotlight. I am intrigued to see if Todd Gurley can rejuvenate his career in Atlanta, and Seattle’s run defense allowed the fifth-most yards-per-carry in 2019.
Targets: All offensive players in moderation
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: On paper, the Vikings have the upper-hand in almost every conceivable aspect of this game — except at quarterback. I’m expecting to see a highly motivated Aaron Rodgers all season long, and I think he makes a statement in Week 1 despite a tough matchup.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook
Fades: Vikings Passing Game
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We’ve seen some wild and competitive games between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, and both quarterbacks are in-play. I’m not so sure the game is a back-and-forth high-scoring slugfest, but I can’t imagine Aaron Rodgers responding poorly to the unwarranted criticisms thrown his way.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Aaron Rodgers, Adam Theilen
Fades: Aaron Jones
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it is somewhat understandable that people are lower on the Patriots this year than any time in recent memory, the belief that they can’t handle this Dolphins team is perplexing to me. We are still talking about a Bill Belichick run team with solid players up and down the lineup against a Dolphins team that is mostly devoid of talent. I’m expecting a comfortable Patriots victory to kick off the season.
Targets: Preston Williams, James White, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Patriots Defense
Fades: Murky Running Back Situations for Both Teams
Must-Owns: Cam Newton
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All else being equal, tell me how New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton doesn’t rush for at least one touchdown on Sunday? Head coach Bill Belichick had Tom Brady find the endzone 22 times in his career, and Brady is a known statue. Newton has almost three times as many non-passing touchdowns — 58 — and has nearly 5,000 yards from scrimmage. Even if he isn’t running downfield, he’s probably getting a goal-line quarterback sneak. On the other side of the ball, I’m interested to see how the Patriots’ defense lines up against a Miami Dolphins offense that knocked New England out of position to secure a first-round bye. The Patriots’ defense still ranked first in the league in yards and points, and it faces a turnover-happy quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Targets: New England’s Defense
Fades: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Must-Owns: Cam Newton
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is not a game I’ll have much interest in this week as I strongly believe this is a highly overrated Eagles team, and there simply isn’t a lot to love on the offensive side of the ball for the “Football Team”. The only part of this game that makes some players intriguing is the fact that volume should be pretty reliable for each team’s top weapons.
Targets: Zach Ertz and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Mostly All Offensive Players
Must-Owns: Washington Defense (Minimum Priced)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If Washington is going to compete in any games, it likely starts with its defense. The organization bolstered the unit by adding pass rusher Chase Young in the Draft, but the reality is that the defense was already quietly good. It’s the starting point for Sunday’s matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Targets: Terry McLaurin
Fades: Philadelphia’s Offense
Must-Owns: Actually… Washington’s Defense
Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A big focus this week for me is on continuity and familiarity for teams due to the abbreviated training camps and lack of preseasons. With that being said, this Panthers team is just about my least favorite team there is in Week 1. With so many new players and a first time Head Coach, I really don’t have high hopes for the beginning of their season. I’m thinking the Raiders cruise to victory in their first game representing the city of Las Vegas.
Targets: Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs III and Raiders Defense
Fades: Panthers Offense
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote about this game being potentially “wild” in my picks column, but that’s not exactly a comforting note for those of us looking to use players in a daily fantasy lineup. Simply put, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Las Vegas Raiders’ offense does well, but, in turn, we also can’t be shocked if the Carolina Panthers open up their playbook in the first game with a new head coach and quarterback. It’s hard to imagine that both Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs aren’t heavily involved for their respective teams.
Targets: Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Christian McCaffrey
Fades: Carolina’s pass-catchers
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I am very confident the well-rounded Colts will comfortably control this game against the already tanking Jaguars, I don’t have a ton of interest in this game from a fantasy perspective. I think the Colts play most of the game with a lead, but there is too much uncertainty in how touches will be spread out in this Colts offense for me to have any interest just yet. The biggest appeal here may be Jaguars pass catchers who may rack in points with garbage time possessions.
Targets: T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and DJ Chark Jr.
Fades: Murky Running Back Situations for Both Teams
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In preparing for this game, I keep seeing the same game script unfold in my mind. That is, the Indianapolis Colts will score, extend their lead, and then allow the Jacksonville Jaguars to claw their way back into the contest. Some of this comes from Jacksonville’s history of playing poorly in terms of football, but thriving with fantasy numbers, some of it comes from quarterback Gardner Minshew’s ability to get hot at certain times, and the final part comes from the likelihood of a heavy favorite setting the tone early and easing off the gas pedal late.
Targets: Philip Rivers, T.Y. HIlton, Jack Doyle
Fades: Gardner Minshew
Must-Owns: None, but I will own at least one player from the Colts in most of my lineups
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game presents as one of the trickier games of the week as the obvious answer is a comfortable Ravens victory, but it doesn’t seem quite that easy. The Browns are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, have made what should prove to be a major upgrade at Head Coach, and they have a good history of playing competitively against this Ravens team. I think we wind up seeing a tight game with moderate scoring, but not a high-end fantasy game all around.
Targets: Nick Chubb and Mark Ingram II
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: Odell Beckham, Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite how excellent the Baltimore Ravens were in 2019, it’s entirely plausible that we don’t really know what to expect in the encore. Will quarterback Lamar Jackson run as much as he did? If not, doesn’t that lower his ceiling? We also expect the Ravens’ defense to remain great, but does the loss of Earl Thomas hurt? And what about the Cleveland Browns? Will their new head coach help unlock something in quarterback Baker Mayfield? All told, I am leaning on some playmakers in this game, but almost anything seems possible.
Targets: Mark Ingram
Fades: None in particular, but I’m not going overboard with this game
Must-Owns: Odell Beckham, Jr.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is screaming for endless handoffs. For the Chargers, they aren’t going to trot Tyrod Taylor out there and expect him to throw 40 passes to win the game. And for the Bengals, they have Joe Burrow who had a shortened training camp and no preseason to try to get familiar with the playbook, his teammates or the speed of an NFL game. I expect to see a lower scoring, run-heavy game here.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Kenan Allen and Joe Mixon
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am extremely low on the Los Angeles Chargers, as a whole, but that moves to new depths with an Opening Day game and a running quarterback. I’m not overly excited about owning anyone in particular from the matchup, but I like the idea of using Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow in one lineup. It’s quite possible that he over-performs and his price skyrockets in the future.
Targets: Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s Defense
Fades: Tyrod Taylor and most of Los Angeles’ Offense
Must-Owns: Joe Mixon
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I’ve never been one to overly doubt Tom Brady, this week feels like a very tall task for the veteran. The Bucs are loaded with new faces and haven’t had much time to work together. On top of that, they face off against a Saints team that is full of returning players – not to mention very good ones – and their coaching staff. I won’t be completely shocked if it’s a close game, but my money is on a fairly comfortable Saints victory.
Targets: Chris Godwin, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Jared Cook
Fades: Rest of Buccaneers Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As a football fan, I so badly want this game to be an absolute classic. I’m not so sure it happens. What I am sure is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will throw the ball relentlessly and it puts all pass-catchers and Tom Brady on the map.
Targets: Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Drew Brees, and Michael Thomas
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but I do see myself owning some players from Tampa Bay
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the hype around this Cardinals team is understandable to a degree, I will not be buying in this week. The 49ers are on track to be absolutely impossible to care about in the fantasy football world. Their defense is very good and should take care of the Cardinals. Their offense is going to be entirely run based like most of last season, and with all of their healthy running backs, it is impossible to feel comfortable picking between them.
Targets: Kendrick Bourne
Fades: All Other Offensive Players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The San Francisco 49ers had one of the best defenses in the league, last year, but the Arizona Cardinals were constantly able to make plays. Why should that change? The 49ers are a better team top-to-bottom, but the Cardinals’ quarterback and head coach are moving into their second season together and have some sneaky value.
Targets: DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Most of San Francisco’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The first Sunday Night Football game of the season is one full of high-end talent. Both teams enter the season with a good amount of continuity and familiarity amongst themselves, so I don’t see either team having major issues getting started this week. Ultimately both offenses should be able to put up some points, but the elite talent on the Rams defense will make the difference.
Targets: Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods
Fades: Ezekiel Elliott and the Rams Running Back Group
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s nearly impossible for me to look at the talent on the Dallas Cowboys’ roster — specifically the offense — and expect the team to be bad. I do, however, look at the Los Angeles Rams as an undervalued squad with huge potential. This sets up to be the highest-scoring game of the Primetime slate.
Targets: Both teams’ passing games
Fades: Both teams’ running games
Must-Owns: Michael Gallup
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Steelers have a huge advantage this week when it comes to lineup continuity and veteran leadership. With Mike Tomlin still running the ship, a healthy Ben Roethlisberger and a very stout defense, I am expecting the Steelers to win this game easily.
Targets: Juju Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron, Steelers Defense
Fades: Giants Offense
Must-Owns: James Conner
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I remain impressed by how well the Pittsburgh Steelers played without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for the majority of 2019, and it’s completely plausible that we see Pittsburgh flex its muscles on national television with a fully healthy squad. That pushes James Conner into the ‘must-own’ territory for me.
Targets: Steelers’ Defense, Ben Roethlisberger, Juju Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson
Fades: Most of New York’s Offense
Must-Owns: James Conner
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It comes as no surprise to me that the final game of Week 1 is one of the toughest for me. The Titans have a clear upper hand in the continuity and veteran aspects that have mattered to me so far, but the Broncos are loaded with young talent that could make some noise this year. Ultimately, I think this Titans team is going to disappoint this season, so I’ll be looking for the upset here to close out the opening week of this season.
Targets: Jonnu Smith, Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton (if healthy), Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant
Fades: All Running Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: By far, my favorite game of the week in terms of the spread, but I don’t actually have a great read as to how the game unfolds. It is almost too obvious to lean on both teams’ rushing attack for the bulk of the matchup, and it might turn into a nice battle between quarterbacks Drew Lock and Ryan Tannehill. For that reason, I might go against the grain and not own any of the running backs.
Targets: Both teams’ passing game
Fades: Both teams’ running game
Must-Owns: None