We’re not only down to the final eight teams, but we have reached the point where the entire playing field is level. There are no more bye weeks, and everyone is in-action. With that, we have eight teams over four games in two days to dissect, and we will absolutely find some value in the matchups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While we were surprised to see the Rams pull off the ‘upset’ last week, it wasn’t a major surprise to see their defense continue playing at an elite level as they have all season long. With that said, this Packers offense is simply different: they have only been held to fewer than 30 points in four games this entire season, and just once have they been held below 20 points. Against a more competent defense this week, I am not sure that Jared Goff and his faulty right thumb will hold up in the cold Wisconsin weather. The Rams’ defense should do well enough to keep the game somewhat close, but at the end of the day, the rested Packers are going to have enough firepower to outlast the underdog Rams.
Targets: Cam Akers, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan, and Packers defense
Fades: Rams passing game
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saturday afternoon game between the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams is being played on Saturday afternoon for a reason. That is, it’s the lesser appealing of the two NFC games and possibly the least appealing of all four. That’s harsh and unfair, but it’s the truth. This doesn’t mean there isn’t value, though. Green Bay’s defense has been quite good, and its pass defense ranks in the top-ten for every category except interceptions. This presents problems for Rams quarterback Jared Goff and his injured thumb — especially in the cold weather. Still, if you’re looking for a ‘contrarian’ route, there it is. There should also be a semi-‘contrarian’ advantage with the Packers’ offense against an excellent Rams defense that just shut down the Seahawks. Basically, the value in this matchup is that people will almost certainly be looking elsewhere.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Packers defense, Jared Goff, and Josh Reynolds
Fades: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Cam Akers
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bills may still be playing football this week, but to say they barely survived last week would not be an exaggeration. Had the Colts managed the game a little better, they easily could have pulled off the ‘upset,’ just like we had said was possible. On the other side of this game, the Ravens took care of business last week as they more or less dominated the Titans from start to finish. They may have only won by seven points, but they had over 400 yards of total offense, including 236 yards on the ground while the defense allowed just 209 yards and held Derrick Henry and the Titans to just 51 rushing yards. Since Week 13, the Ravens have rushed for over 200 yards in all but one game — they still had 159 rushing yards in that one game. The Bills’ defense continued to be a liability last week, and they have especially struggled against the run this season as they rank 26th in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Bills’ offense should have some success, but against a tough Ravens defense, I don’t think they’ll be able to do enough to offset the dominance we should see from the Ravens run game.
Targets: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Mark Andrews, Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, and Cole Beasley
Fades: Marquise Brown and Stefon Diggs
Must-Owns: Lamar Jackson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We saw exactly how dangerous and effective both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen could be with their legs in their respective Wild Card Round victories. For that reason, just like last week, both are ‘must-owns’ in a Showdown contest. And again, I’m not diving in with either one in a Classic contest. Both defenses clearly have experience practicing against mobile quarterbacks and, while that won’t cause either one to be outright stopped, it could lower the ceiling. The reality is that both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills have been favorites of the DFS world for the entire season, and that’s not likely to change under a national spotlight. With that, the over-under is currently the second-lowest of the four matchups, and I suspect there’s a reason. We might not get the fireworks many would expect. Still, the regular stars that have emerged over the course of the season are still in-play.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Mark Andrews, and both defenses
Fades: Devin Singletary
Must-Owns: Cole Beasley
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Maybe I’m a hater, or maybe I’m just a non-believer, but I am looking at the Browns win last week as somewhat of a fluke. The entire path of that game was determined by a first play, bad snap that led to a defensive touchdown for the Browns. Unfortunately for them, this week they have to line up against a Chiefs team that rarely ever makes a mistake and loses games even less often. Andy Reid coming off a bye week is almost unfair, and with the key Chiefs’ players having had two weeks of rest for this game, I can’t have anything less than complete faith. With my confidence in the Chiefs offense, I have to think the Browns are forced to lean on the passing game, which isn’t their typical game plan, but it should open up some value for Browns pass catchers that we don’t always find ourselves targeting.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Austin Hooper, Patrick Mahomes, Le’Veon Bell and Tyreek Hill
Fades: Nick Chubb and both defenses
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just wrote about the Ravens and Bills playing in a game with a lower-than-average over-under, but it’s impossible to ignore that the over-under for the game between the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs is astronomical. Not only is it the highest of the weekend, but it’s at a whopping 57. Of course, the combination of the Chiefs’ incredible offense and the Browns’ explosion from last week make for the anticipation for high-scoring but, if that’s the case, I’d rather lean on some play-makers from Cleveland. Of course, I have no problem using any of the usual suspects from Kansas City, but the Browns likely won’t go down without a fight, and it would be the offense that produces any sort of competitive game.
Targets: Everyone from Cleveland, with a preference for the passing game, Patrick Mahomes, Le’Veon Bell, and all Chiefs pass-catchers
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Baker Mayfield
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I wrote at great length last week my doubts about the Buccaneers due to their lack of impressive victories, and their recent improvement in play coming against vastly inferior opponents. While they did win last week, a one-possession victory of a Taylor Heinicke-led Washington Football Team hardly did enough to ease my concerns. Those concerns only grow when I look back at how the Buccaneers’ two games against the Saints went earlier this year. In those two games, the Saints won by a combined 46 points while forcing the Buccaneers to commit six turnovers — they had just twelve in their other 15 games. The Saints’ defense has been nothing short of elite this season as they rank inside the top in the league in run and pass defense efficiency while also ranking in the top five in total yards and points allowed. On top of their elite defensive play, the offense has managed to remain highly effective as they have managed to reach at least 20 points in every single game this season. No matter how I look at this game, I can’t help but give a big advantage to the Saints.
Targets: Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Drew Brees, Jared Cook and Saints defense
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Simply put, I want to approach the game between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers carefully. I fully expect offense to take the forefront, as it is the clear unchallenged storyline of the matchup. I’ll even go as far as saying that the passing attacks will be my focal point, despite how ‘obvious’ that is. The reasoning is simple. The Buccaneers brought in quarterback Tom Brady to be the steadying hand in the playoffs, and they won’t let someone else lead the way if they can help it. The Saints don’t entirely lean on quarterback Drew Brees — in fact, they continue to prove how to win without him — but they also heavily target two players in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, who get so much of their value from receptions. In a full-slate contest, there’s also a chance that Saturday night’s quarterbacks are significantly more popular than Sunday’s.
Targets: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Tom Brady, and all Buccaneers pass-catchers
Fades: None, but I won’t overload players from this game in a full-weekend slate
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas