As we continue to write, the Conference Championships truly present a pair of outstanding matchups that should be equally exciting for the both the DFS player and general football fan. There is even a nice balance as to where we can find offense and defense, and that will help in ultimately making our lineups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Conference Championship NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Buccaneers may have absolutely dominated the Packers in their Week 6 matchup, but I am not buying into that happening again by any stretch. That game can easily be looked at as the Packers only bad game of the entire season, as they have been more or less dominant all year long. That game marked the only time the Packers were held to less than 20 points all season and was their lowest total yards of offense in a single game by 90 yards. In that game, the Packers’ offense had two turnovers compared to just nine turnovers in their other 16 games this season. The Buccaneers’ offense continues to not overwhelm me after a mediocre game last week. They had beaten up a few terrible teams to end the season, and against a tough Saints defense last week, they accumulated just 189 passing yards. They managed to score 30 points solely due to their defense creating four turnovers, three of which led to drives starting inside Saints territory and ending in touchdowns while the fourth one sealed the game. While it was an impressive showing by the defense, the Packers have been playing on another level, and simply do not make mistakes. Watching the Packers march up and down the field last week on the Rams number one defense showed me absolutely everything I needed to see to have faith in them representing the NFC in this year’s Super Bowl.
Targets: Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan
Fades: Leonard Fournette
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There has not been a single moment during the 2020 NFL season in which I have felt compelled to truly doubt what the Green Bay Packers could do on offense. That includes the terrible loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which Green Bay scored a season-low 10 points. Why didn’t that game change my view of the team? Because the Packers still scored at least 22 points in every single matchup for the rest of the year. We even saw this continue in the postseason as Green Bay put up 32 points against the Rams, the second-largest total they allowed all season. This does not mean that I will overload players from the Packers, however, as I still recognize the talent levels of both defenses. In fact, I’m more inclined to be selective from the NFC Championship Game and only lean on the top stars. That hurts when looking at the Buccaneers’ offense, as we continue to see how many different players can contribute on a weekly basis.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and both defenses — if doing a two-game slate, compared to the AFC Championship Game
Fades: Leonard Fournette and Mike Evans
Must-Owns: Davante Adams
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is the obvious major question mark of whether Patrick Mahomes will be available or not for this game, but as of right now, that is not even a question for me. The Chiefs have had Mahomes taking basically every snap with the first-team in practice all week, and if they had any doubt about his availability come Sunday, they would absolutely want Chad Henne getting some reps so he was prepared. With Mahomes likely to be active, I will continue to live and die with my belief in the Chiefs. Looking back to Week 11 of last season, the Chiefs have lost just one real football game — excluding Week 17 of this season where all key players didn’t play. This team is simply something special and, until I see them fail in a big spot, they will always have my confidence. The real beauty is that they have found numerous ways to win outside of just elite quarterback play this season. They have won some defensive battles this season, and they have won games in which they leaned heavily on the run game. One game to really demonstrate that would be their previous matchup with this same Bills team back in Week 6. In that game, the Chiefs rushed for 245 yards while out-gaining the Bills 466 to 206 in total yards of offense. In their two playoff games this year, there has been a weakness shown in each that leaves me feeling uneasy about the Bills. Against the Colts, their complete inability to stop the run was exposed in a major way, and against the Ravens, their struggles to run the ball allowed the Ravens to focus on pass defense which led to the Bills totaling just 220 yards of offense while scoring only ten points on offense. In order to beat the Chiefs, it is going to take a near perfect game on both sides of the ball, and I simply don’t think the Bills have that in them.
Targets: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Patrick Mahomes (assuming he is active), Darrel Williams (depending on injury news of other running backs), Tyreek Hill, and Chiefs defense
Fades: Devin Singletary
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Although I was quite adamant earlier in the week that Patrick Mahomes would likely not play for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, I’ve had to reverse my stance. The news is trending in the right direction, and by the time this column publishes, it’s likely that we will have confirmation on his status. Regardless, I am buying into offense in the AFC Championship Game no matter which player is under center for the Chiefs. Kansas City simply has too many weapons to expect the entire offense to stall, and we have seen the running game thrive against the Buffalo Bills’ defense. Of course, Buffalo’s offense has been one of the best in the league and, even though it has only scored a total of 37 points through two playoff games — seven were directly from an interception returned for a touchdown — it’s unlikely that Buffalo goes completely dark with two postseason wins under its belt.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if healthy), Darrel Williams (if Edwards-Helaire isn’t healthy), T.J. Yeldon, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley
Fades: Devin Singletary
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill