The playoffs are here and, with it, an obviously shorter list of games to address. As a common theme, however, each game tends to have a handful of plays that can be used in all-day – or all-weekend – slates. But, it does lead to less stacking.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Wild Card Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is probably the toughest game of the week for me to feel good about because of the perfectly imperfect matchups on both sides of the ball. On one hand, you’ve got the dynamic Texans offense against a very tough Bills defense, and on the other side you have a Bills offense that’s only exceeded 30 points twice all season – both of which came against Miami – against a very lousy Texans defense. Ultimately, I’m always inclined to take a good offense against a good defense, and Deshaun Watson has proven he can perform against top defenses in the past. I like the Texans to jump out to a lead and force the Bills into a pass heavy game they aren’t known for. I could see this game being the surprise high-scoring matchup of the week.
Targets: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, John Brown, Deshaun Watson, Carlos Hyde, DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills
Fades: Both defenses and Will Fuller V – if he winds up being active
Must-Owns: Cole Beasley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep asking myself why the Houston Texans are being overlooked and, even though I can’t get a straight answer, I do have some level of positivity to take from it. That is, the Texans being overlooked also means that they will be undervalued. There is no situation in which this comes into play more than the fantasy lineups we would need to create with Houston’s players. By virtue of a difficult matchup with an excellent Buffalo Bills defense, the Texans’ players can be owned at a relative discount. Of course, the price is justified, as it won’t be easy to score against Buffalo. Still, there is a nice reward for the risk. I’m leaning on Deshaun Watson to help deliver said reward. For the Bills, I’ll also turn to the quarterback for some offense, but I’m probably more inclined to go with Devin Singletary as Buffalo chose to rest him and not Frank Gore in the team’s meaningless Week 17 game.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Devin Singletary
Fades: To my own surprise, both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is an unfamiliar sight having New England playing on Wild Card Weekend. Despite being favored in the game, there is legitimate concern the Patriots could be an early exit this postseason. That fear is somewhat justified considering the hot streak the Titans are on having scored over 30 points in five of their last seven games to steal the last playoff spot, and some of the struggles the Patriots have shown throughout the season. At the end of the day, playoff experience and success plays a tremendous role in these games, and there is no team, coach, or group of players that has more than this Patriots squad. I have faith that Bill Belichick will have his team ready to handle a familiar foe from his days in Miami, Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots showed us last year in the playoffs how they want to win these tough games, and that is with a great run game and stout defense. Given the recent rise in their ability to run the ball, and the elite defense they played throughout the year, I will hold onto the faith for now that the Patriots can take care of business this week.
Targets: Jonnu Smith, Patriots defense, James White, and Julian Edelman
Fades: The rest of the Titans’ offense
Must-Owns: Sony Michel
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s strength against strength when the red-hot Tennessee Titans’ offense takes on the league’s top-ranked defense in the New England Patriots. Immediately, we are forced to make a decision. Do the Patriots revert back to their dominant ways of the past decade or have we finally seen a decline – even if just for this year – from New England? The one matchup in the game that I still can’t see failing is New England’s defense shutting down the key players from Tennessee. That is, after all, the Patriots’ specialty – to take away an opponent’s best strength. It might burn me, but I am out on the trio of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown. I might even roll the dice with the Patriots’ defense in one lineup if I’m going ‘all-in.’ Elsewhere, the other topic-of-discussion is clearly New England’s offense. It has been a problem. I’m usually one of the slower people to convert to a popular opinion, but I’m seeing it, too. If I’m only making one lineup, I would also probably stay away from the Patriots’ offense. But, if searching for alternative combinations, then Tom Brady and his playmakers – probably James White – have to be included.
Targets: Tom Brady, New England’s defense, and Julian Edelman – if he’s healthy
Fades: All of Tennessee’s offense
Must-Owns: James White
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It almost seems cruel that the Saints have to play this weekend considering they were easily one of the best teams in the league all season long as they finished with a tremendous 13-3 record. For all that success, here they are facing a tough Vikings team that has shown some strong moments throughout the year. Ultimately what this game boils down to for me is Kirk Cousins against Drew Brees, and I think it’s safe to say who has the edge there. Drew Brees has the clear advantage in playoff experience, recent play, and overall talent. The Saints have playoff demons to avenge, and there is no better team to go through first than these Vikings. Brees has this Saints offense rolling as they’ve scored at least 26 points in seven straight games. The Vikings’ defense has simply been ‘okay’ through the year, so I don’t see a way in which they keep the Saints from scoring in bunches. Cousins will likely be forced into a big workload in this one, and while I don’t think he can pull out a win, I think pieces of the Vikings’ offense are plenty viable, especially Adam Thielen who will have to get back on track if Marshone Lattimore is lining up with Stefon Diggs all game.
Targets: Dalvin Cook – solely for his likely volume in the passing game – Drew Brees and Michael Thomas
Fades: Stefon Diggs
Must-Owns: Adam Thielen and Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: When scrolling through the list of games for this weekend, it’s hard to land on the matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings and not think “high-scoring.” But, this would require a big effort from a Minnesota offense that has been somewhat shaky, at times. And I suspect that this stems from a desire to run the ball more than pass it. Despite scoring at least 28 points in half of their games, the Vikings have only reached 300 passing yards twice. Instead, they have rushed for at least 150 yards eight times and eclipsed 200 yards on-the-ground twice. The issue for Sunday afternoon’s trip to New Orleans is, therefore, quite clear. The Vikings will have to compete with the Saints’ high-flying offense and Minnesota’s own desire to run the football. In the playoffs, I can’t expect this to last too long into the game, and it will only be a matter of time before quarterback Kirk Cousins has to take control. It’s almost impossible to think that Minnesota competes without him. Because of the different game flow options, I don’t know if I will take the risk with running back Dalvin Cook anywhere, but I will probably own Ameer Abdullah for exactly the reason I just described regarding the passing game. Of course, the usual suspects from New Orleans are always in-play, and I can’t fathom having a lineup without wide receiver Michael Thomas. If the Saints go deep in the playoffs, it’s likely that Thomas will burn his fantasy owners once. But I’m not willing to miss his explosiveness for my lineup. Especially in point-per-reception formats.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Ameer Abdullah, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Tre’Quan Smith
Fades: Dalvin Cook and both defenses
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the Eagles’ deserve a ton of credit for even getting here through all of the injuries they’ve endured – even if they were practically handed the division – I am having a hard time seeing how this team competes this week. The injuries are mounting to unimaginable heights, and now both Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders are questionable with injuries that would almost certainly keep them out of a regular season game. They are down to relying on Dallas Goedert, Boston Scott, and Greg Ward who are not the weapons Carson Wentz would’ve imagined he’d be working with in his playoff debut. The Seahawks’ offense has been depleted at running back as well, but I will happily take my chances leaning on Russell Wilson in a playoff game against a very vulnerable secondary. Wilson, and the Seahawks offense as a whole, has slowed since their early season dominance, but in this matchup and situation, I expect nothing but Wilson’s finest as he leads the Seahawks to victory.
Targets: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Boston Scott and Dallas Goedert
Fades: Seahawks running backs
Must-Owns: Tyler Lockett and Boston Scott/Dallas Goedert if Miles Sanders/Zach Ertz, respectively, are officially ruled out before kickoff
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the small spread, but I’m expecting the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks to be the closest matchup of the weekend. Given the history between these two teams and Seattle’s reputation of winning games on the road, but in lower-scoring outputs, I’m hesitant to go too overboard with offense from either side. I’ll almost never ignore what quarterback Russell Wilson can do, so he’s exempt from my list of exemptions, but he isn’t my top choice for the weekend. I do want to own some pass-catchers from both teams, even though Philadelphia’s are decimated with injuries. It leads to lower competition for targets, and someone like Greg Ward can remain effective. I’m also intrigued by Marshawn Lynch, as he seemingly always finds the end zone and was brought back to Seattle for precisely that reason. The risks are obvious with Lynch, as the yardage total is almost certain to be low. Still, he’ll get the goal line carries.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Tyler Lockett, Carson Wentz, and both defenses
Fades: Despite the list of offensive targets, I simply wouldn’t stack any group from this game
Must-Owns: Zach Ertz or Dallas Goedert – obviously, driven by Ertz’s health