We have our smallest schedule of games, so far, as Week 6 includes four teams on their bye weeks and an early game in London – that won’t be included in the ‘main’ slate of fantasy tournaments. Thankfully, we still have plenty of games with either favorable matchups or intriguing storylines.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As crazy as it sounds, and as much as I hate to say it, the Cleveland Browns are going to win this game. No matter what you think about the Browns, it seems like this will be their trend for their season: embarrass themselves and then surprise us. As we always say, Russell Wilson won’t let his team go down easily, but I think he falls just short this week.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr.
Fades: Chris Carson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just keep asking myself the same question. That is, “How will the Cleveland Browns be able to beat the Seattle Seahawks?” And there’s only one answer: it must be in limiting quarterback Russell Wilson. This puts the Browns’ defense in the spotlight, and makes for a sneaky value play on Sunday. I wouldn’t go too far overboard with anyone from Cleveland, however, as I remain firmly in the camp that Baker Mayfield’s game simply will not transfer to the professional level.
Targets: Browns defense and Nick Chubb
Fades: Seattle’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All I can say is hopefully you continued to buy into the Will Fuller narrative I’d be suggesting as he finally paid off. I’m going to double down now with DeAndre Hopkins as he is even more overdue than Fuller was. My overall interest in this obvious shootout will come down to the health of the Chiefs offense. If the Chiefs have their full arsenal of weapons, and a healthy Patrick Mahomes, it will be hard not to attack this game.
Targets: Both teams’ entire offenses – assuming good news on the injury front
Fades: None
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve been using this word a lot lately when referring to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but, whenever he is on the field, there is the potential for “fun.” “Fun” in that anything could happen. “Fun” in that we might see something wacky, new, and successful at the same time. And “fun” in that he rarely lets us down. His most recent game against the Colts is clearly the outlier in his career, where his team has scored at least 26 points in every game prior to the one against Indianapolis. The Kansas City Chiefs will get back on track offensively against the Houston Texans. But, as always, the Chiefs’ defense makes it an open field in terms of playable fantasy options.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: It feels wrong to not own anyone from this game, so I will almost certainly have some exposure to it, somewhere
Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Assuming these two don’t find a way to tie, the NFL is losing a winless team this week. I’m confident in saying that team will be the Redskins. The Dolphins have made it clear they are not looking to compete this year, and coming off a bye week, I don’t expect that to change. The Redskins had higher hopes this year, and just fired their coach to try and revitalize the team. Look for them to run the ball heavily on the worst defense in the league.
Targets: Terry McLaurin, Paul Richardson, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Adrian Peterson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m ‘all-in’ with my expectations for this game in terms of picks, but the fantasy appeal of a matchup between the Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins rests solely in one place: the running backs. Specifically, the offensive line that will block for said running backs. Washington’s new head coach was most recently the offensive line coach, and I like to align my projections with the area of the ball with which any new coach is most familiar. Stripping everything else away from the game, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson should be in great position. Peterson gets the nod for me since the media would frequently point out how little he saw the field in the past, and I suspect the new head coach will make it a point to alleviate these comments.
Targets: Chris Thompson
Fades: Probably both defenses, as either offense could show up on Sunday
Must-Owns: Adrian Peterson
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is a hard game to pinpoint because it doesn’t provide a great matchup for either team. The Vikings’ strength is the run game, but the Eagles are much better against the run than the pass. The Eagles offense likes to attack through the air, but the Vikings defense is having another solid season. There is enough talent on either team to consider, but I don’t love this game as a whole.
Targets: Adam Theilen, Stefon Diggs and Zach Ertz
Fades: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Eagles Running Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I write so many different versions about the same game – from against-the-spread picks to this game-by-game analysis to actual fantasy picks – that it’s easy to see which games – and teams – I like and which ones worry me. The matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings completely worries me. I don’t like. I could make the argument for either team to win and for us to see a high-scoring or low-scoring game. Helpful, I know. One of the problems with the matchup is the strength against strength that might not even be a strength. Again, helpful. The Eagles’ have an outstanding run defense, but they’ve also played teams that are horrible at running the ball. Minnesota will almost definitely test this part of the game. Conversely, Philadelphia has been shredded through the air, but the Vikings’ struggles in the passing game have been well-documented. In the end, I’m leaning on offense winning out and us getting a decent amount of points. Because of that, I’ll probably target Minnesota’s stud running back and the two quarterbacks. But, I am sure that I’ll fined options in other games that I like more.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Zach Ertz
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Teddy Bridgewater-led Saints haven’t lost yet, and have gotten better each week. That changes this week, as the Saints travel to Jacksonville to play Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars. The Jaguars have been playing well lately, and would have a winning record had Christian McCaffrey not played like Superman last week. I think this game disappoints from a fantasy perspective as both defenses should be able to slow down the opposing quarterbacks.
Targets: Saints defense
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: Jaguars defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I often write about how dangerous it is to trust players after a small sample size, but I have definitely bought-in on quarterback Gardner Minshew. And, the reason I like him as a real-life quarterback nicely translates to what makes him a fantasy asset: he does it all. He’ll run if he has to run. He’ll throw if he has to throw. And he has helped lead the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense to rank sixth in the league in yards-per-game. Overall, I’m not entirely sold that we’ll have a high-scoring game, but Jacksonville’s offense is finally in a position to push that of the New Orleans Saints.
Targets: Gardner Minshew, D.J. Shark, Alvin Kamara
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Having spent the last couple weeks watching the Bengals closely, I can tell you one thing for certain: they are not very good. Their offensive line doesn’t protect well enough to give their few playmakers a chance, and their defense is struggling to stop anything. I don’t like saying a division game will be a blowout, but I don’t see how Cincinnati makes this game interesting.
Targets: Ravens Defense, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: Mark Ingram
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cincinnati Bengals turned in their best offensive performance of the season in Week 5. The only problem is that they needed 50 minutes of gametime to pass before they broke double-digits on the scoreboard. Against the Baltimore Ravens, I’m not so sure they can afford to fall behind and then start scoring. But, we’ve also seen some holes in the Ravens’ defense – and the division familiarity makes this matchup a little more susceptible to odd or rare outcomes. The one element of the game that does appear firmly lopsided is Baltimore’s rushing attack against Cincinnati’s complete inability to stop a running back.
Targets: Mark Ingram
Fades: Actually both defenses, as I wouldn’t want to get burned by either offense actually showing up to the game
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With four extra days of rest, and a roster that I’d still call “superior,” I like the Rams to come out and make a statement this week that this is still their division. The Rams will key in on the run and force Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them, which is something he hasn’t really had to do this year. I expect a big turnaround for this Rams defense, and the offense will have to make quick plays against the tough 49ers defensive front.
Targets: Rams Defense, Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Gerald Everett
Fades: 49ers offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s so easy to look at the final scores of the San Francisco 49ers’ games and assume that the offense carried the team to victory. It hasn’t. If anything, the league’s top defense in creating turnovers has been the key. And the Los Angeles Rams have been prone to turning the ball over – fifth-most in the league. San Francisco’s defense is a potential ‘sleeper’ for fantasy purposes. The reality, however, is that Los Angeles’ defense was shredded by the Buccaneers before giving up another 400 yards and 30 points to Seattle. I expect the Rams’ defense – which is seventh-best in yards-per-rush – to rebound on Sunday.
Targets: Both defenses and Robert Woods
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is no doubt that this game possesses shootout potential give then immense struggles of both defenses, but I won’t be surprised if it disappointed. Both of these offenses have had plenty of struggles, and they could feed off each other and suck the life out of the game. With that said, if playing multiple lineups, I’d definitely recommend owning pieces of this game because the matchup on both sides is great.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, Kyler Murray, David Johnson – unless he is out in which case Chase Edmunds becomes a near must-start, and Larry Fitzgerald
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing the same things about the Arizona Cardinals, and I don’t see it changing anytime soon. At the risk of being too overzealous and not anticipating a regression, I am, again, targeting both the Cardinals and their opponents on Sunday. How can I not? Arizona ranks in the bottom-five for yards and points-allowed-per-game and has not given up fewer than 23 points in any contest, this year. Offensively, the numbers may not be there – only 15th in yards and fourth-worst in passing touchdowns and net-yards-per-pass-attempt – but the volume usually is. I’ll remain in the same position in which I have been for weeks. That is, I’ll use players from Arizona and, in this case, the Atlanta Falcons, to fill out my roster, but I won’t build around these two teams.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Kyler Murray, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but at least one player will probably make it into my lineup from this game.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is easily one of the least exciting games of the week – which is something I find myself saying quite often about a Titans game. Both teams boast mediocre, run-first offenses and solid defenses which should make for a relatively uneventful game all around.
Targets: Derrick Henry and Phillip Lindsay
Fades: Both teams’ passing games
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After watching the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos for one-quarter of the season, how can we expect anything more than a single digit score from each team? Both are built exactly the same way, where defense and contributions from the running backs are the preferred path to victory. I won’t get cute here and start loading up on offensive players in case we see a surprise change, and I’m confident that it won’t burn me – even if there is offense in this game, the players should not be highly-owned in tournaments.
Targets: Both defenses and maybe Derrick Henry
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: Probably a defense from this game, and I’m leaning on Tennessee’s
Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The two major storylines in this game are the much needed return of Sam Darnold and the question of, “Who are the Dallas Cowboys?” Having Darnold back will have to help things for this struggling Jets offense, and I think it helps them keep this game competitive. With that said after a week (or two) of people questioning the Cowboys, and calling them frauds, I’m expecting them to come out firing this week and look to make a statement – that is as much of a statement as you can make against a winless team.
Targets: Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup
Fades: Cowboys defense
Must-Owns: Le’Veon Bell
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For the past few weeks, every writeup about the New York Jets has started and ended with the quarterback position. As long as Sam Darnold would be out – and, specifically, Luke Falk would be in – New York not only had no chance to win the game, but also no chance to move the football. With Darnold back, the Jets are an entirely different team. Dramatic? Not even a little. The drop-off from Darnold to Falk was so severe that everyone suffered, including the defense – New York’s opponents currently have the best starting field position in the league. The Jets have been in a holding pattern for weeks. Maybe they sputter. But, it’s more likely we see a surprisingly productive offense. This forces the Dallas Cowboys to match them.
Targets: Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Le’Veon Bell
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Steelers have quickly become that team where simply everything imaginable has gone wrong – although the Chargers aren’t far behind them. While both teams have had their obvious struggles and misfortunes, the Chargers simply have a better remaining roster, and I expect them to control this game throughout fairly easily.
Targets: Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Fades: Steelers Offense and Austin Ekeler – the game script this week should significantly reduce his volume
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback for Sunday night’s game is undecided. I’m not so sure it matters. The Los Angeles Chargers are rarely the team that gets pinpointed as one ready do crush an opponent, but this might be the Chargers’ best chance to do just that. It is, of course, possible that the Steelers can be creative offensively and find ways to beat Los Angeles, but it isn’t likely. Not after Pittsburgh had to relentlessly turn to the ‘Wildcat formation’ to beat the now-0-5 Bengals. In terms of roster construction for a Primetime slate, I will simply be using a defense from this game and maybe one offensive player.
Targets: Both defenses and Melvin Gordon
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: Chargers defense, but I have no problem if you want to take a chance with Pittsburgh’s defense to be ‘contrarian’
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is subject to change depending on injury news, but based on both of these teams’ current makeups, this game looks like a battle of running backs and defenses. That seems crazy with these two quarterbacks, but both defenses have been far better against the pass than the run, and both offenses are will to give their lead backs big volume in the right situations. This game has the makings of a primetime, divisional slugfest.
Targets: Kerryon Johnson and Aaron Jones
Fades: Both teams’ passing game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As usual, I like to write about the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games in tandem. This is because I always play the Primetime contests that feature both games. In doing so, I don’t like to have balance between the two matchups, and I’d prefer to lean on one for offense. Not surprisingly, I’m targeting the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions for my roster. In fairness, with the exception of one game each, both defenses have allowed no more than 27 points in a given week, but the divisional rivalry on national television should bring out the best from each squad. Basically, everyone is in play.
Targets: All offensive players, but you can use the Lions’ defense if you’re really swinging for the fences – and probably taking offense from Sunday Night Football
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Probably Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Golladay