Soon enough, bye weeks will start to limit the size of the main slate for fantasy purposes. Even though we have two teams out-of-action, this weekend – as well as last weekend – we still have one of the larger pools from which to choose.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 5 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Ignore the fact the neither of these teams have won a game, and the fact that the Bengals just embarrassed themselves on Primetime television and you’ll see that this is possibly the most beautiful fantasy matchup of the week. You have two really bad defenses going against offenses with a very limited number of talented players to take advantage of their great matchups. There is a lot to like in this game.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate
Fades: Tyler Eifert
Must-Owns: David Johnson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For as much as I write about the Arizona Cardinals’ desire to play a high-flying game, they have been a severe disappointment offensively in recent weeks. They are averaging fewer than 16 points-per-game over the last three weeks, and they hit a season-low by only scoring 10 points against the Seahawks, last week. The same is true for the Cincinnati Bengals, who have steadily decreased or met their point total from the prior game, every week. Thankfully for both teams, Sunday should be the perfect setup for the offenses to thrive – after all, both head coaches are seeking their first wins and have backgrounds on the offensive side of the ball. Arizona is allowing the third-most fantasy-points-per-game to opposing quarterbacks, while Cincinnati is allowing the second-most fantasy-points-per-game to opposing running backs.
Targets: A full game stack – everyone is in play from both teams
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: At least someone from this game, and I’m leaning toward David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald – with the news that Christian Kirk is out
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If ever there were a terrible football game to watch between two playoff contenders, this would be the game. The status of Josh Allen is a huge factor in the Bills’ hopes this week, but it ultimately may not matter. With Taylor Lewan returning for the Titans, their ability to run the ball, and control the clock, may make the Bills offense almost nonexistent.
Targets: Titans defense
Fades: Bills offense
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In the exact opposite setup as the matchup between the Bengals and Cardinals, the Titans and Bills meet in a game that might not see double-digit points, combined. Certainly, it’s possibly that Derrick Henry turns in a big day or that the Bills’ offense surprises, but nothing from this game suggests it’s one of the top plays of the weekend.
Targets: Both defenses and maybe Derrick Henry
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders – in London
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Our love for the Raiders last week payed off nicely, but there will be no such love from me this week. I wound up backing off of Dalvin Cook against this Bears’ defense last week, and it was the right call. I can’t see the Raiders finding much success this week. I also don’t think that the drop to Chase Daniel will really hurts this Bears offense whatsoever. They may actually execute a simpler and more effective game plan than they had with Mitchell Trubisky.
Targets: Bears Defense, David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson
Fades: Raiders offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We purposely list “storylines” in this portion of the writeups because they occasionally have value. I’m not so sure that’s the case here, but it is worth mentioning that Chicago’s Khalil Mack will be facing his former team from Oakland when the Bears and Raiders meet in London on Sunday. Chicago already had to rely on its defense as the gameplan for this upcoming contest, but it gets an added boost by the fire undoubtedly lit under Mack when he lines up against the Raiders.
Targets: Chicago’s defense and Tarik Cohen
Fades: All other offensive players from both teams
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts:Without doing the research to back this claim, I’m going to guess that this matchup has to represent the widest spread in total points from the teams’ previous games (the Buccaneers game had 95 points and the Saints game had 22 points). I’m honestly not sure what to make of this information, but it felt worthwhile to mention. What I do know is that this Saints defense has stepped up in a big way recently and mostly limited the Seahawks offense before dominating the Cowboys, and I trust those offenses a lot more than the Buccaneers’. I can’t expect three straight good games from Jameis Winston, so I’m leaning towards this being a lower-scoring game than some other might think.
Targets: Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas
Fades: Buccaneers Offense and Teddy Bridgewater
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers was one of the trickier games of the week to project. This is because the Saints are so obviously limited on offense that they have to operate through Alvin Kamara. The problem is that Tampa Bay sports the best run defense in the league. On the other side of the game, the Buccaneers’ offense is coming off one of the best performances in franchise history, but will clearly regress. New Orleans’ defense hasn’t been great, but it did hold the Cowboys to only ten points.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, and maybe Jameis Winston
Fades: None really, but I wouldn’t go too overboard with this game
Must-Owns: None
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The world finally seems to be catching up on the realization that Kirk Cousins simply is not very good. Of course the matchup last week was brutal, but the evidence is piling up. Against a much weaker opponent this week, I expect the Vikings to go back to their bread and butter this week – play strong defense and run the ball endlessly.
Targets: Vikings Defense, Dalvin Cook, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram
Fades: Vikings passing game, Daniel Jones and Golden Tate (I’ll take a wait and see approach to see how they incorporate him into the offense)
Must-Owns: None (but Cook is close to falling into this category)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Raise your hand if you’ve been burned by Kirk Cousins at any point in his career. Everyone? That’s what I thought. Now that I’ve lowered my own hand and can continue typing, I feel compelled to point out that Cousins’ roller coaster act is his only act. He’s wildly inconsistent, but almost always ends the year right around average in terms of records and ‘acceptable’ statistics. Meaning, he may burn you a few times, but he’ll also produce in big chunks. I’m not so sure I’ll take the chance – only because volume might be an issue – but most of Minnesota’s offense is in-play on Sunday.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs – obviously, this is a situation to monitor since he has been absent from practice – Dalvin Cook, and Golden Tate
Fades: Most of the Giants’ offense
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With the good matchup and the extra time off from playing last Thursday, it’s hard to see the Eagles’ offense not having a good game this week. Of course, they remain one of those teams with too many mouths to feed so it’s hard to love anyone in particular. The Jets’ appeal is lost without Sam Darnold. They have a juicy matchup, and the perfect game script, but without Darnold, It may be tough to justify taking the plunge.
Targets: Entire Eagles offense and Le’Veon Bell
Fades: The rest of the Jets’ offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This blurb wrote itself. As soon as it was announced that Sam Darnold would miss the game, the entire Jets’ offense was no longer playable. I will give some value to the bye week probably producing a few more points with Luke Falk under center than it did in his most recent game, but it won’t be enough to justify using anyone from New York. Nor will it scare me away from starting the Eagles’ defense. I wouldn’t go too overboard with Philadelphia’s offense, however, as the Jets’ defense has actually been good. The problem is that it’s on the field – a short field, at that – for too long, and it eventually breaks. Still, I’m leaning away from offense in this game.
Targets: Jets defense, but not above Philadelphia’s
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: Eagles defense
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This divisional game has the makings of an ugly fantasy game. The Steelers’ offense found some success last week, but that gameplan likely won’t work against a better defense like the Ravens. The Steelers’ defense has impressed and can likely slow down this Ravens offense that has now, unsurprisingly, struggled in consecutive weeks against better opponents.
Targets: Either Defense, Mark Ingram and Jaylen Samuels – only if James Conner is out
Fades: Both team’s passing game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Sometimes, when I am making my against-the-spread pick, I like to envision what the final score might be for a given matchup. Is it practical to see 35-31? What about 21-20? For the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, I finally decided that the Steelers are probably capped at 20 points on Sunday. And even that is probably too high. This means that, even if the Ravens revert back to the form we saw in the first two weeks of the season, they may not need to reach 30 points. Of course, a divisional rivalry tends to have somewhat unconventional results, but I’m taking my chances and looking elsewhere for offense.
Targets: Baltimore’s defense
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Any faith we may have had in the Redskins last week died as they put up a dud against a poor Giants defense. Now they face arguably the best defense in the league that has only allowed one touchdown through four weeks, and a Tom Brady-led offense coming off their first down week of the season. This game should be a massacre. Plan accordingly.
Targets: Entire Patriots Offense
Fades: Entire Redskins Offense
Must-Owns: Patriots Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I continue to find myself surprised by how many times I look at a game and cringe. I guess I shouldn’t. I keep insisting that this year will be different from recent ones because of the high-level of quarterback talent in the draft. Teams that are multiple games under .500 will stop pushing for wins. And teams that are already cruising through the schedule will have fewer roadblocks in the way. As a somewhat related comment, the New England Patriots and Washington Redskins are playing against each other on Sunday. The Patriots are coming off one of their worst offensive performances in years – and, again, I have heard people questioning if Brady “looks finished” – against an outstanding defense. And New England has allowed one offensive touchdown, all season. That is all.
Targets: Tom Brady, Josh Gordon, and Julian Edelman – of course, if he plays
Fades: Everyone from Washington
Must-Owns: Patriots Defense
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to not like Gardner Minshew, but the Panthers’ defense is allowing a league best 156.8 passing yards per game. That’s no mistake, and it’s no fluke either. They’ve played the Rams, the Buccaneers, the Cardinals, and the Texans – four pass happy teams. It’s not worth picking against them right now, and this game figures to be all about the running backs.
Targets: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen
Fades: Jaguars passing game and Kyle Allen
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been all over Kyle Allen and the Carolina Panthers’ offense for the past two weeks – largely Christian McCaffrey – but I think it’s time to step away. For now. I’ll be back. Carolina won again with Allen under center, but we saw a little more caution from head coach Ron Rivera – nicknamed “Riverboat Ron” for his propensity to take risks, although I’ve seen quite a few examples on the contrary. McCaffrey was featured heavily – as he always will be – but the rest of the game centered around defense. With the Jacksonville Jaguars coming to town, I expect more of the same. From both teams, actually. Although I won’t entirely shy away from starting Gardner Minshew at quarterback. If he’s healthy and first my salary requirements for a specific lineup, I have no qualms about it.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey – even though he’s not my top pick, I’d still be fine using him – and Gardner Minshew
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a week that is fairly deprived of really appealing games, this is one that definitely stands out. Both of these defenses have been largely a disappointment to start the season and both offenses have elite talent. With the Falcons becoming desperate at 1-3, and the Texans in a 4-way tie for first place at 2-2, I’m expecting both teams to come out firing and lean on their stars to lead the way.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, Deshaun Watson, and Will Fuller – mainly depending on Kenny Stills’ health
Fades: Devonta Freeman
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Name value, alone, will probably suggest the game between the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans will be high-scoring, but I believe we’ve seen enough evidence against this to fully trust offense without concern. Houston is averaging fewer than 20 points-per-game, this year, while hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game, yet has two in which it didn’t even break 12 points. Can this change? Of course. And I don’t mind looking at the top talents from each team. I just wouldn’t fill up my roster from this game.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Deshaun Watson, and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Probably Hopkins, followed by Jones
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of the more interesting games to decipher, in large part due to the Chargers’ injury-riddled offense. The return of Melvin Gordon is a much needed addition for a team that seemingly has another significant subtraction every week. Austin Ekeler is still an elite option due to the fact that he’s likely to still be the second-most targeted player on the Chargers, and the fact that Gordon will likely still be somewhat limited. Given that Joe Flacco is still bad, and seemingly only throws to his two running backs – 19 targets apiece for Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman – it’s hard to look anywhere but the Denver backfield any given week.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Keenan Allen
Fades: Joe Flacco and Denver wide receivers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not going to claim that “the Denver Broncos have to win eventually,” but I am going to point to how competitive they will play until it happens. The franchise made a change at the head coaching position, while also adding a veteran quarterback. This is not exactly the recipe for a playoff run unless Joe Flacco plays out-of-his-mind, but it should result in something better than 0-4. The reality is that the passing attack has actually been decent, and it has often involved the running backs. On the same topic of running backs, the Los Angeles Chargers are getting Melvin Gordon back, this week, and it is expected to be involved at at least half his normal capacity. I’m buying. If Denver gives Los Angeles a game, Gordon will be as involved as he used to be. If not, Gordon gets the carries late.
Targets: Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon
Fades: Most players from both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is easily one of the better football matchups of the week, but I’m hesitant to make a huge dive into for fantasy purposes. The Packers have struggled against the run a bit, but they’ve had ten days to prepare for this game and figure out how to play against Ezekiel Elliott. I think they can slow him down this week enough to warrant a fade. With Jamaal Williams and Davante Adams both likely to be out, the Packers’ offense will lean heavily on a few key players.
Targets: Aaron Jones, Jimmy Graham and Amari Cooper
Fades: Everyone else in this game – price and popularity will be higher than I feel comfortable with
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Like the game between the Falcons and Texans, name value will have a lot to do with Sunday’s battle between the Cowboys and Packers. Mainly, the two quarterbacks appear to be ready for a back-and-forth showdown. Roster construction says otherwise. The Green Bay Packers might have one of the greatest quarterbacks of All-Time on their team, but they haven’t scored more than 27 points in a game, and they rank 20th in the league in yards-per-game. The Dallas Cowboys had three stellar weeks to start the year, but then ran into an actual defense in New Orleans. Both offense are clearly talented enough to break out at a given moment, but I don’t expect it to happen when the two go head-to-head.
Targets: I could justify a mini-stack of some combination of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, or Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper, but not too heavy from this game
Fades: None, and I wouldn’t use one of the defenses
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has all of the makings of a complete offensive explosion. The Chiefs are coming off a sloppy game in which Patrick Mahomes threw zero touchdowns. Now they return home, and you can count on a big overcorrection coming there. The Colts played a really ugly game against the Raiders as the fell behind early and never really had a chance.
Targets: Anyone that is healthy and receiving significant snaps
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m hearing a lot about how people were surprised that the Lions did so well against the Kansas City Chiefs. I’m not sure why. Kansas City’s offense is the elite of the elite, but the defense is utterly terrible – granted, much of the defensive woes is because the unit is on the field so often after the Chiefs score over-and-over. Now four weeks into the season, Kansas City has allowed fewer than 26 points only once. The offense is absolutely matchup-proof at this point – so starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes with any skill position player is never a problem – but the same is true for all opposing teams. Normally, I like to be ‘contrarian’ and find the game Primetime game that might have a sneaky opportunity for offense, but I can’t overlook Sunday Night Football. The ‘contrarian’ play is probably more Indianapolis Colts’ offensive players than those from the Chiefs, but the reality is that my Primetime lineup will be full of players from Kansas City and Indianapolis.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Probably Jacoby Brissett and Eric Ebron
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It has been seemingly forever since we’ve seen the 49ers play, and even when they have been playing, their schedule hasn’t really allowed us to see if they are for real or not. A matchup with this Browns defense will be another good test for their offense, but I’m not sure they’ll do a lot better than they did against the Steelers in Week 3. The Browns have been very hit-or-miss this year, and against this 49ers defense that will likely get a ton of pressure of Baker Mayfield, I’m not expecting a great showing. The football world may have high expectations for this game, but I do not.
Targets: Both Defenses, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr. and George Kittle (all strictly for their volume in their offenses)
Fades: The rest of each teams’ offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I joked in my picks column, a matchup between Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield is an absolute nightmare for me. But, I actually like the game to be competitive, regardless. It doesn’t come from Garoppolo and Mayfield, however – which is probably why I’m intrigued by the game – as both defenses are good enough to stop the opposing offense. As I wrote in the Sunday Night Football blurb, I like to point out where we can be ‘contrarian.’ It’s hard to find such a setup, this week, but I will be leaning on running backs and defense in the Monday night game.
Targets: Nick Chubb and both defenses
Fades: Everyone from both passing games except…
Must-Owns: George Kittle, who leads the team in targets and doesn’t have a touchdown reception – while five other players do