We have our first pair of bye weeks for the season, but only two teams are out-of-action, this weekend. Of the fourteen games ahead, we actually can point to a high number of possible ‘upsets.’ At least, for fantasy purposes, a high number of game flow setups where a team can produce.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Tennessee will be remembered as the team that was horrible, last Thursday. If there is one thing I’ve learned watching football it’s that a Thursday night game is often sloppy, especially for the road team. With that, that team now has a few extra days to rest and prepare for their next game and is typically in-line for a big bounceback performance. The Falcons are also starting to deal with injuries on both sides of the ball, making my confidence in the Titans that much higher.
Targets: Corey Davis (he will eventually have a big game), Delanie Walker, and Julio Jones
Fades: Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even if the Atlanta Falcons were actually living up to their offensive potential, I’m not so sure I would feel comfortable using their offensive players against the Tennessee Titans. Because the Titans apparently only care about playing defense. The Titans are much worse against the run than pass, however, so the gameplan of a slower-paced ground attack might be successful for Atlanta.
Targets: Devonta Freeman and both defenses
Fades: Most offensive players
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has the making of a divisional slugfest led by two of the top defenses in the league right now. The Patriots are quite clearly the better team, but a road game against this Buffalo team could present some issues. The one advantage the Patriots absolutely have, and will certainly look to exploit, is their speedy running backs running routes against the Bills linebackers. I won’t go as far as to fade the rest of the Patriots’ offense, but they likely won’t be high on my radar this week given the matchup and possible game-flow.
Targets: James White and Rex Burkhead
Fades: Bills Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the comments I make on a nearly weekly basis is that the New England Patriots get contributions from too many players for me to comfortably settle on one or two. That changes when Tom Brady is in-play. The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 and have thrived defensively, but they also shut down the Giants, Jets, and Bengals en route to a perfect record. The Patriots are in another class. And, New England is absolutely capable of flexing its muscles, if given the chance.
Targets: Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon
Fades: Mostly everyone from the Bills
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At this point it seems foolish to say anything other than, “Just play Patrick Mahomes and his entire offense because they produce seemingly every single week.” If there is a team and coach I see mildly slowing them down, it may be this Lions team led by their Bill Belichick disciple, Matt Patricia. Patricia led the upset against the Patriots last season by running the ball effectively and eliminating big plays. I expect the same attempt, but it may not work against this Chiefs offense. The Lions have struggled against top wide receivers this season, so this seems like a great week to go back to Sammy Watkins.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Kerryon Johnson
Fades: Nobody specific as I could see this game going many different ways
Must-Owns: Sammy Watkins
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I feel like we have the same debate, every week, just with a different team. “Will this defense be able to slow down Kansas City’s offense? And will this offense be able to keep pace with the Chiefs?” In the case of the Detroit Lions, it is actually possible that the answer to both questions is “yes.” Still, the quick-strike ability of Kansas City’s offense almost always makes a risk to score in bunches. I’m leaning more on the Chiefs setting the tone and the Lions following without a problem.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson, T.J. Hockenson, Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but it is probably imperative to own at least one player from this game
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even without Andrew Luck, the Colts have put together an impressive start to the season, and should be able to continue their strong start with a fairly easy game against the Raiders at home. The Colts should be able to handle the Raiders on both sides of the ball which gives us a fairly predictable game-script for these teams. Plenty of running for Marlon Mack, and plenty of throws for Derek Carr – which seemingly all will be targeted at Darren Waller.
Targets: Colts Defense, Marlon Mack and Darren Waller
Fades: Colts passing game (especially if Hilton cannot play) and Josh Jacobs (who is not getting enough work in the passing game to be a great target weekly)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am interested to see how the Indianapolis Colts approach the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Indianapolis had previously played a more conservative style of game, where it ran for at least 160 yards while throwing for fewer than 175 in both games. More specifically, the first two games of the season featured more rushing yards on offense than passing yards. Then, the Colts turned up the heat on the Falcons and threw for 300 yards, only running for 79. This did result in Atlanta having a nice day offensively in response. Oakland’s defense is struggling – more against the pass than the run – so we can probably use a few offensive players from this game in our lineups.
Targets: Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Eric Ebron, Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another week comes around, and our expectations for the Dolphins are once again too high – especially with the Chargers traveling across the country for a 1 o’clock game. There is no denying they are terrible, but they have only scored 16 points through 3 games, and no matter how bad a team is, that kind of pace simply cannot continue forever. Originally I found myself liking Justin Jackson, but with news of Melvin Gordon ending his holdout and likely to be in the lineup for Week 5, there is really no reason to shelter Austin Ekeler this week as his workload will surely decrease in the future.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Kenyan Drake and Preston Williams
Fades: Chargers Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another week, another “yikes.” I feel like I am simply wasting time writing about the Miami Dolphins in any way, as the team is so horrifically bad that it simply can’t be trusted. In fairness, we did look for the Dolphins to have more offensive success, last week, and the yards were there – comparatively speaking – even if the points weren’t. The team did operate better under quarterback Josh Rosen than Ryan Fitzpatrick, but how can we comfortably use anyone from Miami in our lineups? For the Los Angeles Chargers, the pending return of Melvin Gordon might mean Austin Ekeler has one more week of unchallenged touches. In fact, he might get extra carries in preparation for likely ceding some to Gordon in the coming weeks.
Targets: Chargers offense and defense
Fades: All Dolphins players
Must-Owns: Austin Ekeler
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This matchup has potential to be the highest-scoring game of the week thanks to the fact that both defenses have struggled immensely all season long. The image of last week will be burned into people’s brains enough to expect the Giants to more or less dominate this game. I’d caution against this to a degree. I think the Giants’ offense can beat this Redskins’ defense, but it important to look at the teams each team has played. The impressive Giants’ game came against the Buccaneers, while the Redskins have quietly put up a fight against the Eagles, Cowboys, and then the Bears – somewhat. The Redskins have been tested far more and may surprise this week.
Targets: Case Keenum (assuming he is still the starter by Sunday), Adrian Peterson, Terry McLaurin, Trey Quinn, Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram
Fades: Both Defenses and Wayne Gallman (he will be way over owned with people expecting him to see Saquon-like volume, but that is unlikely to be the case)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure any two teams could be meeting on Sunday with a faster change of perception than the New York Giants and Washington Redskins. Because of that, I want to be careful not to overexpose myself to either site. Still, offense should reign supreme on Sunday with two horrible defenses and a combined 1-5 record between the teams. No Saquon Barkley means other Giants offensive players will have to rise to the occasion and help Daniel Jones, while Washington appears to be sticking with Case Keenum – and that should keep the same targets in-play.
Targets: Pretty much all offensive players
Fades: Both defense
Must-Owns: Someone from this game, probably Terry McLaurin for his price – if he is healthy enough to play
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cleveland Browns will continue to be an enigma, and have plenty of ups and downs. This week feels like a perfect week for a peak with people once again down on them after their ugly showing in the spotlight against the Rams. Lamar Jackson’s struggles passing last week feel like a much better representation of his passing skills than the dominant performances he had the first two weeks of the year. Let’s see how he handles Myles Garrett, but my guess is… not great.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Mark Ingram
Fades: Ravens Defense and Lamar Jackson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m usually the first to point out how overrated both Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns are, but I do the same for Lamar Jackson and Baltimore Ravens. Something has to give. On Sunday, I’m actually more intrigued by owning Cleveland’s offense than anything else. If the team is losing, it will need to push the envelope against a tough Ravens defense. Maybe it doesn’t work, but volume is helpful. Baltimore has also shown no fear in taking an offensive approach. Even though I don’t expect an absolute explosion of offense, there’s enough here to use some in a lineup.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jr., Nick Chubb, Lamar Jackson, and Marquise Brown
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The public opinion of the Panthers has skyrocketed after last week’s showing both offensively and defensively. While that is totally understandable, it has to be said that that showing was against the Cardinals, who have largely struggled on both sides of the ball this year. The Texans are far from a perfect team, but they are miles better than the Cardinals and will limit this Panthers team much more, so I’m tempering my expectations this week. I will continue to die on the Will Fuller hill this week as his volume, and deep targets will eventually translate into a big game. I refuse to miss out when that day comes, and with every passing week his popularity and price continue to drop making it harder for me to ignore him.
Targets: Curtis Samuel, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller
Fades: Kyle Allen and Christian McCaffrey (just relative to his price and expectations)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m curious to see if the Kyle Allen bandwagon will now start to fill after his big performance in Arizona or if people will sell said performance because it was in Arizona. Regardless, Allen can play. And his matchup with the Houston Texans isn’t entirely impossible. Houston ranks 21st in yards-allowed-per-game. More importantly, it has allowed the third-most yards-per-rush in the league.
Targets: Kyle Allen, Deshaun Watson, and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Tampa Bay is fresh off a week in which they had their best offensive showing, but also allowed the debut of Daniel Jones to spoil their best efforts. Their defense showed a lot of weakness in the middle of the field without their star linebacker, and I expect the Rams to exploit that just like the Giants did. After that loss, I’m not expecting a repeat effort from the Buccaneers offense either. This feels like a game that Todd Gurley could reassert himself, especially after Sean McVay admitted he needs to do more to get Gurley going, but it is hard to pay that premium for a guy with so much uncertainty.
Targets: Rams Defense, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods
Fades: Buccaneers Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Entering this season, it seemed like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were going to push for an offensive gameplan. The first two weeks of the season proved otherwise. And then Week 3 arrived. At heart, the Buccaneers want to move the ball. The Los Angeles Rams have proven that they can win games in either setting – high-scoring or defensive – which leaves much of Sunday’s matchup in a state of uncertainty. This even boils down to the players, where Todd Gurley is the one we should target on a regular basis, but simply can’t be trusted. The most likely game flow is that the Buccaneers are forced to throw.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp
Fades: No one in particular
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With how both of these secondaries have looked this year, this game has potential to be a high-scoring affair. The Cardinals are a pass-happy team and even though they haven’t had a ton of success yet, this could be the matchup, and game script to get their offense going. Russell Wilson continues to amaze every week, but his volume this week will be a big question mark. With Chris Carson’s struggles to hold the ball, I’d like to think the Seahawks let Wilson have the ball more, but chances are they will continue to lean on run game which limits his upside in games like this one.
Targets: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Will Dissly, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk
Fades: Chris Carson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At the beginning of the week, Luke and I were discussing how the matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals might be the best for fantasy purposes. The Cardinals like to play at a frenetic pace, and the Seahawks have proven that they can do the same, if needed. We may have waned a little, as the high-flying nature of the Cardinals only works if they can set the tone – or if they are trailing. Seattle – one week after Russell Wilson threw the ball 50 times – might try for a more balanced game. Still, stacking from this game is definitely an option.
Targets: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and David Johnson
Fades: Both defenses and maybe Chris Carson
Must-Owns: None, but I can’t see making a lineup without someone from this game in it
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This divisional battle in Chicago has the makings of a fantasy black hole given what we know about the Bears. While that is likely the angle everyone plays here, this may be a chance to get Dalvin Cook at a finally decreased ownership. The Vikings are committed to centering their entire offense around him, and I think there is a chance their running game could be good enough overcome the matchup. The game script also favors Cook, so his volume should continue to be very dependable.
Targets: Vikings Defense and Dalvin Cook
Fades: Everyone else on both teams’ offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I won’t go overboard with it, but I can see some sneaky fantasy appeal from the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. Both offenses can have a big day on a random Sunday – all the pieces are in-place – but I doubt this happens in the first meeting between the two, this season. Why? Because the Packers’ loss on Thursday Night Football puts the division lead within striking distance and, when pushed, teams like to stay in their comfort zone. This probably leads to more volume for the running backs. The matchup isn’t great for them, but there is certainly potential.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and both defenses
Fades: The rest of the offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game, much like the Vikings and Bears game, should feature very little fantasy appeal. With that said, there is one significant play here, and that is the Broncos’ defense. This group came into the season with high expectations given their level of talent, yet through three weeks, they are the only defense in the league to not have a sack or a forced turnover. We love the Broncos at home in general, but couple that with over correction that is bound to come, and the Broncos’ defense is one of my favorite picks of the week.
Targets: None
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: Broncos Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even though the Denver Broncos didn’t win in Week 2, they did show how difficult it is for an opponent to play in Denver in September. The numbers are insanely lopsided in the Broncos’ favor. In addition, the avenue through which the Broncos were poised to win was their defense. This is no surprise, as Denver prefers a lower-scoring game. The Jaguars may have found something in quarterback Gardner Minshew, but he also barely cracked 200 yards passing against the Titans in Week 3.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: Denver’s defense
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saints came out and played like the veteran, impressive team that they still are last week on their way to their ‘upset’ of the Seahawks. Now they come back home and face the undefeated Cowboys. It’s clear that even with Teddy Bridgewater under center, the offense won’t be the same dynamic group, but they can be efficient and still compete with the top teams. I expect this game to play at a much slower pace and have a lot less offense than people will want to be believe with all the big names in it. There is enough volume for the top guys to still be effective, but don’t count of fireworks here.
Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Devin Smith, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas
Fades: Everyone else – who will likely all have minimal workloads.
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As has been the trend for the past few weeks, the Sunday Night Football matchup has the appearance of a high-scoring game, but is just as susceptible to being a defensive battle. This is because of name value. Seeing the New Orleans Saints play at home in Primetime gives the impression that another high-flying offense is ready to pop. Except, this isn’t Drew Brees’ offense. It’s now Teddy Bridgewater’s. Bridgewater played admirably in a road win against Seattle, but the Saints were also aided by a special teams and defensive touchdown. On the other side of the game, the Dallas Cowboys have scored at least 31 points in each of their first three games. But, we might see a slower, more methodical attack in New Orleans. Dallas is poised to regress defensively – and has played weak offenses, to date – but it can control the game with its top-notch rushing attack.
Targets: Both defenses, with an edge to Dallas’
Fades: Most of the offense, although it might be necessary to own some in a small slate
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Monday Night Football game this week is quite the doozy between these two winless rivals. I’m not sure how it happens, but the Steelers should win this game. Both offenses are largely struggling outside of the occasional big play, but the Steelers’ defense is a much better group than the Bengals’. I wouldn’t bank on a ton of offense here, although each team has players who could break off big plays.
Targets: Steelers Defense, James Conner, Juju Smith-Schuster, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd
Fades: The rest of the offense on both sides
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As usual, if we’re trying to win a Primetime contest, we have to be ‘contrarian’ in parts. Using more players from the Pittsburgh Steelers than Cincinnati Bengals is not exactly ‘contrarian’ – Pittsburgh has the more popular skill position players – but using more offense from Monday Night Football than Sunday Night Football is. That’s my plan-of-attack. Andy Dalton has been asked to throw a lot over the first three weeks and, if the Bengals are losing, little should change in that regard. The Steelers could certainly try to lean on Mason Rudolph, but the more likely play is to run the offense through James Conner.
Targets: Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, James Conner, and anyone else needed to fill out a roster and be ‘contrarian’
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None