It may only be Week 3, but some teams are already starting to separate themselves from the pack – both good and bad. If we’re using spreads as an indicator, then we might be in store for some insanely lopsided matchups on Sunday. But, there are also opportunities for some teams to right the ship and get back-on-track.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: To me, this game more or less comes down to the status of Devin Singletary. If he is out, Frank Gore is hard to ignore. I am not a fan of relying on a running back of his advanced age, especially with his clear decline, but the Bills have shown a commitment to Gore, and if Singletary is out, he should see a ton of work against a very poor run defense with a positive game script. The Bengals offense has had a lot of value in the past two weeks, but I don’t like their matchup at all, and I don’t love this game for a lot of scoring.
Targets: Bills Defense and Frank Gore
Fades: Bengals Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always laugh when I find myself picking against my own long-term expectations, but it has happened a few times with the Cincinnati Bengals. For the season, I listed them as one of my “under” win total picks. Yet, I keep finding sneaky value with them. It might simply be because I continue to not believe in Cincinnati’s opponent on a weekly basis. The same is true for Sunday. The problem for fantasy purposes is that Buffalo’s defense is good – at least, it was against the Jets and Giants – so scoring might be limited. And, we also face the common dilemma of a Bills team that spreads out its offense. Luke was practically begging the Bills to use Devin Singletary instead of Frank Gore and, while Singletary did reach the end zone, Gore still had more carries.
Targets: I can justify a player or two from this game – maybe only Andy Dalton who has gone over 300 passing yards in both games, this year – but not much more
Fades: Pretty much everyone from the game, including defense. I can see this matchup producing points, but not focused to a singular player
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another week and another likely blowout loss for the Dolphins. The Cowboys’ entire offense is in-play because as we’ve seen, the Dolphins will bleed yards and points. My only concern is volume because is it worth pounding Ezekiel Elliott all game if they are winning by 27 points at half time? This could actually be a decent week to put a little faith in the Dolphins offense. We know they will be throwing, and the Dallas defense hasn’t been quite as dominant as we may have expected against the lowly Giants and Redskins.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, Devin Smith, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None, but exposure to this game probably a must
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we’re looking for ‘game flow’ opportunities, then it will be hard to find someone in better position to shine than Ezekiel Elliott. The Dallas Cowboys losing on Sunday would be the shock of the season, which means that there should be a lead to protect. I do expect Miami to score – over the last decade, teams that were shutout typically average near 20 points the following week – and this might be a spot for a cheap ‘all-or-nothing’ play with DeVante Parker. He leads the team in targets with 14, and they were spaced perfectly over the last two weeks – seven each. He has caught a total of three passes in that span, but he has potential to return immense value.
Targets: DeVante Parker and Dallas’ defense
Fades: I’m sure Dak Prescott can torch the Dolphins, but I’m not sold that he will. I’m staying away on Sunday
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Packers’ offense took strides in Week 2, but after a hot start petered out. The Denver defense has plenty of high talent and it’s not one I plan on attacking heavily. It does seem like the Packers are finally willing to give Aaron Jones the work he deserves, and given that he is playing against a team that is rolling out Joe Flacco at quarterback, the game flow should be in favor of a heavy workload for the Packers running back. He presents tremendous value this week as one of the few high-volume, dual-threat running backs in the league that can be had for a reasonable price tag
Targets: Emmanuel Sanders
Fades: Aaron Rodgers Davante Adams
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The fact that the Green Bay Packers are 2-0 – with two division wins – helps cover a lot of flaws, but let’s not pretend like they don’t exist. Green Bay – with an offensive-minded head coach – ranks fourth-worst in yards gained. Denver just lost an absolute heartbreaker in Week 2, but still has a top-ten defense in yards allowed. Not only am I staying away from offense in this matchup, but I might use the Broncos’ defense as a ‘home run’ play.
Targets: Broncos’ defense
Fades: All offense
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In theory a mathcup between the Colts and the Falcons sounds like it should be high-scoring. Unfortunately, the Falcons’ offense hasn’t been very good despite some big performances from their wide receivers, and their defense has been good – as has the Colts. This feels like an ideal let down game offensively and could be a good opportunity to fade a potentially popular game.
Targets: Either Defense is a decent play, but not elite options
Fades: Both Offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Much like the aforementioned Packers, recency bias – and a history of featuring a prolific offense – has covered the fact that the Atlanta Falcons’ offense has not been great. The team has scored the ninth-fewest points in the league and will now face a Colts defense whose numbers are slightly worse than the actual on-field play. But, the same reputation for the Falcons that makes people think of offense is also ignoring the fact that Atlanta has the third-best defense in the league – in yards allowed.
Targets: None. Even though I am leaning on the lower-scoring side of this game, I’m not sure there will be enough turnovers to even warrant the use of a defense
Fades: Everyone
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I may be one of the few remaining doubters of Lamar Jackson, but that is not changing just yet. He has undoubtedly shown improvement this year, but he has done so against two of the lesser defenses in the league. Unfortunately for my cynicism, Jackson has another good matchup and a game-script that almost ensures a need for him to throw often. It is hard to imagine anything other than a high scoring affair with these two teams. It will be hard to settle on specific players, but almost everyone is in play.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, LeSean McCoy (if Damien Williams is out), Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews
Fades: Mark Ingram
Must-Owns: None, but this game is nearly impossible to fade
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs might be the most intriguing matchup of the afternoon, and it is because of the same problem I reference whenever writing about the Chiefs. I simply can’t trust the defense. To be fair to Kansas City, it actually hasn’t been as much of a problem in 2019 as it was, last year, but the Ravens – despite my own unwillingness to buy into the offense – have clearly found success with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Because I can’t expect any team to stop Patrick Mahomes, I will continue to lean on the side of higher-scoring. It is worth noting that, when these two teams met in 2018, Baltimore held the Chiefs to only 24 points through regulation. That was the lowest total for Kansas City, all year.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins, Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Minnesota lost an important divisional battle last weekend, and it was yet another disappointing showing from Kirk Cousins in an important game. If there is one situation in which Cousins shines, it is in games against lesser opponents with minimal pressure. I fully expect the Vikings to use their superior talents and home field advantage to deliver a decisive victory this week.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Darren Waller
Fades: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and Tyrell Williams
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing about how much it bothers me to go with the ‘easy’ or ‘simple’ read to anything, but I can’t imagine a scenario in which the Vikings lay an egg after losing in Green Bay. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, Minnesota winning does not necessarily mean “Minnesota throwing.” It’s probably the opposite.
Targets: Dalvin Cook and Minnesota’s defense
Fades: Kirk Cousins and the Raiders’ offense
Must-Owns: None, but Cook might be the first guy to slide into a lineup if the salary works
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Things could not look much bleaker for the New York Jets. Injuries have them rolling out a skeleton lineup devoid of many crucial players, and the Patriots are looking like even more of a juggernaut than ever. The Patriots have allowed just three points through two games, while putting up 76 of their own. This game has blowout written all over it.
Targets: Anyone on the Patriots – but the odds of any one player shining are not great due to their skill position depth – and Le’Veon Bell, who may have 20 catches this week.
Fades: The rest of the Jets offense
Must-Owns: Patriots Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Again, ‘easy’ is never easy. Not for me. This time, I might have to make an exception. Instead of belabor the points of why this game will be ridiculously one-sided, I will use this as an opportunity to ask, “What can we really expect from the New York Jets on Sunday?” Seriously. Answer that question for yourself. It won’t matter for this week, but it does have significance in the future. Because the Jets won’t be able to score or move the ball on Sunday. Not with Luke Falk, anyway. So, when the team returns to action and if Sam Darnold is back, there might be some future value.
Targets: Le’Veon Bell – just based on sheer volume – and everyone from the Patriots
Fades: Everyone from the Jets except Bell
Must-Owns: Patriots’ defense
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of the more interesting fantasy games of the week for me. The Lions are in prime position to upset the injury-riddled Eagles. They will likely have to do so through the air as the Eagles’ secondary has given up numerous big plays in each game of the season thus far. The Eagles’ offense is also down numerous weapons which opens up the potential for great value plays in Nelson Agholor (who figures to be one of the most popular plays of the week), Mack Hollins and JJ Arcega-Whiteside. While those guys are all intriguing value plays, I think the injuries make Zach Ertz one of the top plays of the entire weekend.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., Mack Hollins and JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Zach Ertz
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we look at the first two games played by the Detroit Lions, it’s easy to see a trend with how the team wants to win. That is, it doesn’t aim to outscore an opponent. Instead, it wants to lean on its defense. This should come as no surprise, since the head coach is defense-oriented. Still, it leads to less fantasy appeal than we would like.
Targets: Both defenses, but I can envision a scenario in which Matthew Stafford has to throw often
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The seemingly likely absence of Cam Newton will have almost everyone abandoning ship on the Panthers; not me though. I’m not sure that Newton’s absence is all that big of a deal considering how poor he has been throwing the ball. The Panthers are desperate for a victory after their plummet last season, and their slow start to this season. They lost last week because they forgot all about Christian McCaffrey. That won’t happen this week as I expect them to lean on McCaffrey heavily.
Targets: Kyle Allen, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk
Fades: D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Kyler Murray and David Johnson
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I absolutely loved the Arizona Cardinals, last week, for both fantasy purposes and picks. But, one of the reasons I felt so strongly in them performing was the opponent. Baltimore would push Arizona, and it would lead to the Cardinals leaning on their frenetic pace that often delivers solid fantasy returns. I’m not so sure we have that same setup on Sunday, as the Panthers are likely going to try to slow the game down and win with a rushing attack.
Targets: Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, albeit with less love than last week
Fades: None, as there is potential in multiple spots
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Daniel Jones era has officially begun in New York and he gets to face off against a seemingly much improved Buccaneers defense led by Todd Bowels. Tampa Bay has the advantage of having a few extra days of rest after playing on Thursday night last week. People have this belief still about the Buccaneers that they have a terrible defense and a high scoring offense. However, if you’ve watched their games so far this year, that really doesn’t seem like this team anymore.
Targets: Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Chris Godwin – all three should get enough volume to be productive, but don’t expect elite production this week.
Fades: Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston and Mike Evans
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we were talking about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from last year, I would be all-in on using a rookie in his first career start against them. But this season, the Buccaneers’ defense has actually been quite good. Because of that – and because it is almost always the preferred gameplan of the New York Giants – Saquon Barkley will probably be asked to carry the workload instead of Daniel Jones under center. I wouldn’t shy away from either. I also expect the Buccaneers to force the Giants to throw, so Tampa Bay’s offense is also in-play.
Targets: Both offenses, and I might consider Daniel Jones
Fades: Both defenses, just because the game flow might force the final score to be higher-scoring
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As much as it hurt me to be against this Texans offense last week, it felt like an easy fade. This week, however, they face off against a Chargers defense that is without multiple starters in their secondary. I expect the Texans’ offense to show off their big play capabilities once again. The Chargers’ offense hasn’t looked great, but the touches are being funneled so heavily to a few players that they carry value even when the offense isn’t at its very best.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike William
Fades: Philip Rivers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I won’t use the Houston Texan’s last game as an indication of what to expect – playing a division matchup usually leads to inconsistent results – but I am looking for Houston to stay on the lower-scoring end of the scale. Through two weeks, the Texans sit 20th in the league in yards, and were aided greatly – in these numbers – by a late drive against the Saints on Opening Night. Los Angeles is somewhat of an enigma, though, as it follows the split I love, offensively – where it ranks fourth in yards, but 17th in points. The Chargers have the edge on offense, but my point about the Texans scoring late against the Saints should not serve as a throwaway. When pushed, Houston can move the ball. I just don’t see it getting out-of-hand from either side.
Targets: Philip Rivers, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: None, I just wouldn’t go overboard with offense
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Things are pretty doom-and-gloom in Pittsburgh with the loss of Ben Roethlisberger, but their addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick – at the loss of their first round pick – shows they are not ready to give up on this season. I’m looking to a big game from the Steelers, led by their defense, as they look to right the ship of their season. I don’t think this game produces a ton of offense though, so I won’t be playing a lot from this matchup.
Targets: Steelers Defense and Vance McDonald
Fades: 49ers Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not expecting Mason Rudolph to light up the 49ers’ defense on Sunday, but I have to believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers might be in a decent position. Before the season, they had all the making of a team capable of winning regularly and, even though the loss of Ben Roethlisberger will hurt the team, we can certainly see an avenue through which it doesn’t cripple it. 0-3, however, would cripple it. Expect Pittsburgh to lean on James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster. This does lead to San Francisco’s offense being viable, as well.
Targets: Jimmy Garoppolo, James Conner, Juju Smith-Schuster, and I might use Mason Rudolph in a lineup somewhere
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another team that people are down on thanks to a significant injury is the Saints. Once again I am not on board with the negative thoughts. This is a veteran team who has gone through a lot, is very well coached, still has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. It is also worth noting that Teddy Bridgewater is not some undrafted rookie stepping in with no experience. He has plenty of real-life NFL experiences to draw from, and Seattle is not the same defense it used to be. I expect Bridgewater to handle himself just fine and to lean heavily on Michael Thomas who is one of my favorite plays of the week against this shaky Seahawks secondary.
Targets: Teddy Bridgewater, Jared Cook, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson and Seahawks Defense
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New Orleans Saints are being coy with their starting quarterback announcement for Sunday and, while I normally despise this approach, I can see why head coach Sean Payton would go this route in Week 3. The Saints actually do use multiple quarterbacks even when Drew Brees is healthy, so the gameplan is not foreign to them. In fact, they might be the only team that has done it successfully. For fantasy purposes, this makes Taysom Hill a target. I never buy into him as a quarterback, but if he can possibly run for a touchdown and catch one – obviously, from Teddy Bridgewater – he might return great value in the quarterback slot of a lineup.
Targets: Michael Thomas, Taysom Hill, and Alvin Kamara – might be a must-play
Fades: Seahawks offense, as Saints defense is better than most think and is critical to any chances the Saints have on Sunday
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Browns certainly looked better last week, but it is hard to get a complete read on their performance due to the matchup against the broken Jets. This week will be a much tougher test against the Rams who cruised to a victory against the Saints sans Drew Brees. One thing is for real is the destruction that Miles Garrett is capable of causing. I think that this Browns defense is going to be able to provide enough pressure to slow down the Rams offense. This game will be expected to be the higher scoring game of the Primetime slate – and looking ahead to the Monday night game it likely will be still, but I think there is a good chance this game lacks a lot of production.
Targets: Cooper Kupp, Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr.
Fades: The rest of the offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I continue to be impressed by the Los Angeles Rams’ ability to fight off a potential ‘Super Bowl hangover’ and not only win games, but do so under less-than-optimal conditions. Most impressively, the Rams now have the fifth-best defense in yards allowed, although some of that success is clearly attributed to facing the Panthers and Saints – the latter without Drew Brees. But, this matters because I am continually unimpressed by the Cleveland Browns. Between a home game against the Titans – who have now lost back-to-back games – and a trip to the Meadowlands in which Luke Falk was the quarterback for the majority of the contest, Cleveland has a point differential of -10 and only 36 points scored on the season. If we’re looking for a way to win a Primetime contest, going heavy with defense – by also avoiding offensive players – on Sunday night might be the best approach.
Targets: Rams defense, Cooper Kupp, Todd Gurley, Odell Beckham, Jr.
Fades: Most of Cleveland’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Looking at the Bears, there are two things that are very clear: their defense is still incredible, and their offense is nearly impossible to trust. The Bears have only scored a total of 19 points in two games while allowing 24 points. I have a hard time seeing Case Keenum produce a lot of success against this elite group. The Redskins’ defense has struggled this year to the tune of 63 points against in two games. That gives the Bears’ offense some hope, but I wouldn’t count on a huge offensive explosion still
Targets: Bears defense, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson and Chris Thompson
Fades: Redskins offense and Mitchell Trubisky
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Through two games, the Chicago Bears have the third-worst offense in both yards and points. And, had it not been for a miraculous last-second field goal and drive, the team would be sitting at 0-2. On Monday night, it will face a Redskins team that, conveniently, has allowed the third-most yards and points in the league. This is an opportunity for the Bears to solve their problems.
Targets: Everyone from Chicago, including the defense
Fades: Everyone from Washington, including the defense
Must-Owns: I will probably make Mitchell Trubisky my quarterback in any Primetime contest