In every article of Week 2, we will use the word “overreaction” aggressively and endearingly. We look for others to miss reality by shifting perception, and it will be prevalent in almost every game we address.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 2 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It was not a surprise to see the 49ers’ defense succeed, given their additions and the positive matchup, much like it was not a surprise to see their offense disappoint. They may have won, but their offense has a lot of work to do before they are legitimate contenders. Due to lack of competition, there is some appeal on their side in another plus matchup. The Bengals did surprise with a strong battle in Seattle, and that may go to show that what this team needed was a fresh voice instead of more Marvin Lewis. Even so, I have a hard time being overly excited about this team as their offensive line should struggle and they will continue to be without A.J. Green and possibly Joe Mixon this week.
Targets: Matt Breida, George Kittle, and Giovanni Bernard – if Joe Mixon is out
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers Wide Receivers, Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Cincinnati’s offense impressed, and did so against an opponent with which the Bengals’ head coach is familiar – having most recently been on the Los Angeles Rams’ coaching staff. The 49ers were aided by two defensive touchdowns, but both teams have a chance for a decent Sunday, this week.
Targets: All offensive players, although I wouldn’t go overboard in this game
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chargers are quickly running out of bodies as they remain without Melvin Gordon, are set to be without Hunter Henry for an extended period of time, and will potentially be without Mike Williams as well. Luckily, they have a decent matchup against a Lions team that showed last week they are not quite ready to be a winning team. They managed to salvage a tie, but that was undoubtedly disappointing given the large lead they held throughout the game. The Lions’ offense still has some talent and could produce against this Chargers unit that allowed 24 points to a Colts offense that was expected to struggle.
Targets: Philip Rivers, Austin Ekeler, Travis Benjamin, Matthew Stafford, Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay
Fades: T.J. Hockenson
Must-Owns: Keenan Allen
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Individually, the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers epitomize close games in which heartbreak is always possible. For that reason, I expect to see a tightly-contested matchup throughout. I’d lean on both quarterbacks, but probably not above some other options throughout the league.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, T.J. Hockenson, and Philip Rivers
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Keenan Allen
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is one of the tougher ones to predict. It’s hard to imagine Aaron Rodgers leading an unproductive offense two weeks in a row, but the divisional battle with the Vikings isn’t a great set up either. The Vikings are clearly committed to the run game, and the Packers defense has clearly improved over the offseason. The game has potential if you like to be ‘contrarian,’ but there are certainly safer games to attack this week.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook
Fades: Devante Adams, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Did you know that Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins threw for less than 100 yards in his team’s Opening Day win? Naturally, this is because he didn’t need to attempt more than 10 passes, but it is still noteworthy. Largely because he will need to attempt more than 10 passes on Sunday. I was all over Adam Thielen, last week, and he produced despite Cousins’ limited role. Assuming both the Vikings and Green Bay Packers don’t sputter offensively, we could see Cousins and Aaron Rodgers engaged in an aerial battle.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Aaron Rodgers, and Aaron Jones – I’m willing to take a chance that Chicago’s defense was responsible for Jones’ poor Week 1
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: At least one from the list of ‘targets’
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Both of these teams provided some decent surprises in Week 1 that may have people riding high on them. I think both are solid, but this matchup doesn’t bode well for fantasy outlooks. Both teams play defense well and will rely on their run game to lead the offense. It’s hard to imagine this game providing big scores outside of the running back position.
Targets: Marlon Mack and Derrick Henry
Fades: Both Teams Passing Game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Before you freak out, remember what I write on a weekly basis. We expected this to happen. The Tennessee Titans were going to beat the Browns on Opening Day. We can’t overreact. We also knew that the Indianapolis Colts would play a competitive game against the Chargers. Let’s back down from both.
Targets: Both Defenses, and I might lean on the Colts’ defense to be ‘contrarian’
Fades: All offense
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For as long as I can remember following football, this may be the most lopsided game I’ve seen. The Patriots struggles in Miami are something of note, but the difference between these two teams is astronomical. The entire Patriots’ offense should roll, especially last week’s odd man out, Sony Michel. Ryan Fitzpatrick is good for a random explosion every now and again, so don’t be surprised to see some garbage points from the Dolphins as well.
Targets: Everyone on the Patriots Offense, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, and Preston Williams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Yikes. That should be the whole writeup for this game. Just, “Yikes.” We do, however, have the same problem with the New England Patriots that arises time-and-again. How do we pick between the bevy of reasonable options? I won’t try to pinpoint a single running back, even though they make the most sense for game flow puposes.
Targets: Everyone, including an offensive player on Miami
Fades: Dolphins running backs
Must-Owns: None
Buffalo Bills at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Giants were more or less as advertised, but they will continue to carry fantasy relevance due to their likely game scripts each week. Buffalo should be coming in with momentum and control this game mainly with their defense. Speaking of momentum, I’m expecting the Bills learn from their mistakes Week 1 and give Devin Singletary the ball early and often this week. After watching Frank Gore struggle all game long, Singletary was finally involved in the second half and was incredibly productive with his touches. Assuming his coaches see his value over Gore, he could be one of the the most valuable plays this week thanks to an ideal matchup and game flow.
Targets: Bills Defense, Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram
Fades: Bills passing game and Eli Manning
Must-Owns: Devin Singletary
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It feels like there are a lot of moving parts for the game between the Buffalo Bills and New York Giants. Too many moving parts, really. This is probably because each team has random fantasy talent that does not necessarily work into the game it wants to play. For example, Saquon Barkley is otherworldly, but he is frequently at-risk of falling out of a positive game situation if his team trails early. Then again, he is so active as a receiver that it rarely matters.
Targets: Saquon Barkley
Fades: None, but I wouldn’t go heavy on this game
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Week 2 can easily be referred to as league-wide overreaction week. Public opinion on the Steelers is way down thanks to the beating they took in Foxborough. While that game was ugly, a loss to the Patriots is hardly something to take too hard. The Steelers still have plenty of talent of their roster, and have a long track record or strong bounce backs after bad losses, especially when they return home after the loss. It’s hard to imagine Russell Wilson let’s his team get beat too badly ever, so this game has some sneaky potential to be high-scoring.
Targets: Ben Roethlisberger, Juju Smith-Schuster – if healthy – Donte Moncrief – he did lead the team in targets despite his horrible game – Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf
Fades: Defenses
Must-Owns: James Conner
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m a little concerned that people are going to overhype the potential for a Pittsburgh Steelers rebound, but I’m also insisting that I own at least one player from this game. I might force at least one player from each team into my lineup. Any stack of Russell Wilson and a wide receiver – last week, I went with D.K. Metcalf – or Ben Roethlisberger and Juju Smith-Schuster is fine, but I would also want James Conner. The Steelers have had success with their running backs in the past – whether Bell or Conner – and would be wise to increase the volume for their current starter.
Targets: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Ben Roethlisberger, and Juju Smith-Schuster,
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: James Conner
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Washington started their season on an absolute tear as they looked to ‘upset’ the Eagles with mainly a bunch of no-name offensive weapons. They quickly came crashing back to earth as the Eagles marched all the way back to win comfortably. Meanwhile, the Cowboys walked all over the Giants, who are probably a similarly talented team to the Redskins. The Cowboys also did that without a ton of touches or production from Ezekiel Elliott which won’t be a trend for much longer. The Cowboys should breeze to another division victory this week.
Targets: Cowboys Defenses, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb and Chris Thompson
Fades: Adrian Peterson, Redskins Wide Receivers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even with picking the Washington Redskins against-the-spread on Opening Day and, through a fortunate final drive, winning the pick, I still don’t know how I expect the offense to move the ball. Especially against Dallas’ defense. Which means that Washington’s best chance to pull off the home ‘upset’ would be a low-scoring game.
Targets: Both Defenses, and I like the idea of using Washington’s defense to be ‘contrarian’
Fades: Washington’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Ravens are a prime example of early season overreactions. After half a season of Lamar Jackson producing essentially zero offense through the air, people seem to think he’s an elite quarterback. Last week was impressive, but it should be noted that it came against one of the worst football teams assembled in a long time. The problem here is that the Ravens have another very solid matchup and could definitely be successful again. It’s hard to see the Cardinals’ defense doing much to slow them down, which should leave Kyler Murray throwing plenty again as he tries to keep up.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Marquise Brown, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk
Fades: Mark Andrews and David Johnson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Forget my feelings on Lamar Jackson for a moment and ask yourself if you really expect another 59-point outburst from the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Obviously, the ceiling needs to be brought down from there, and I would urge to base your expectations accordingly. Remember that, even Robert Griffin III came in and was six-for-six passing with a touchdown. Regardless, I do expect some offense in this game and, for fantasy purposes, I actually like Kyler Murray’s somewhat frantic play here. It’s the direct opposite of what I normally target – I constantly argue against it – but it works when the game flow appears to be lopsided. Maybe we won’t get another 54 pass attempts from Murray, but he should be in desperation mode for much of the afternoon.
Targets: Larry Fitzgerald
Fades: Lamar Jackson
Must-Owns: Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The battle of two teams that suffered devastating losses in Week 1. The Jaguars big loss was really Nick Foles more than the game as they are now left with rookie Gardner Minshew, while the Texans lost in absolutely gut-wrenching fashion. The Texans are heavy favorites at home, but this feels like a potential ‘upset’ kind of game. The still talented Jaguars defense was just embarrassed last week – albeit by one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL – and now takes on a Texans team that is still struggling to protect their quarterback I’m expecting a strong run game and pressure-filled defense to lead the Jaguars to an upset victory.
Targets: Leonard Fournette
Fades: Texans Offense
Must-Owns: Jaguars Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I find myself continuing to have the same debate in my mind as the weekend draws nearer. That is, I am not expecting anything great from Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew, but is he going to be a complete abomination? This is key to solving the puzzle that is a trip to Houston on Sunday. Because, we can expect the Jaguars’ defense to be good enough to limit the Texans’ offense, but what happens when Jacksonville has the ball? Most likely, they stick to the running game.
Targets: Both Defenses and Leonard Fournette
Fades: Everyone else from Jacksonville
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game figures to be one of the more stackable games of the week. Even without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs Offense is still loaded with talent and should have no problem scoring on an Oakland defense that may be better than people think, but still won’t be anything special, especially without their star rookie safety, Jonathan Abram. The Raiders’ offense gave us reason for optimism, and after seeing Gardner Minshew play well against the Chiefs last week, I have no doubt Derek Carr will produce some points as well.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Derek Carr, Jalen Richard, and Tyrell Williams
Fades: Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy and Josh Jacobs
Must-Owns: Darren Waller
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In the week of deciphering what is real and what isn’t, the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders each have their own Week 1 results to use as the foundation for such an attempt. But, how shaky or sturdy is said foundation for the Raiders? How much of their Opening Night win was a function of the drama that surrounded the team before it took the field? If, nothing else, Oakland should be fine offensively against the Chiefs’ defense, as basically every team is. Kansas City’s offense did score 40 against Jacksonville, but again we need to ask if this was due to poor play by the Jaguars or excellence on the part of the Chiefs.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, and Tyrell Williams
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns:
Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Knowing what we know about this matchup, it’s hard to expect a good game from the Bears, or either offense for that matter. Visiting teams simply don’t succeed in Denver in September, and the Broncos Head Coach knows this Bears team better than anyone. Add to that the fact that the Bears defense should eat Joe Flacco and the Broncos poor offense alive, and there is not much to like here.
Targets: None
Fades: All Offensive Players
Must-Owns: Either Defense (preferably Denver)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve written about this in every outlet possible – from Twitter to our podcast – and I will repeat it here for good measure. Visiting teams have lost 13 consecutive games in Denver in September. If we filter down to only NFC teams, then they haven’t won a September game in Denver since 1983. I’ve belabored the point when it comes to my picks, but there is actually a fantasy element to it. I suspect – as do many others – that the reason for such a lopsided number is the visiting team’s inability to simulated the conditions of high altitude while also trying to get into midseason shape. This means that visiting teams slow down by the end of the game. Whether you want to target Denver’s defense because it might face a fading Bears offense by the fourth quarter or you want to stack the Broncos’ players against a Chicago defense that could possibly be exploited is your call, but keep in mind what was written here.
Targets: Anyone from Denver, but mainly the team’s defense
Fades: Anyone from Chicago
Must-Owns: Denver’s Defense
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is easily one of the best early season games of the year. Last year’s NFC Championship rematch should be full of excitement and emotions, and likely plenty of scoring as well. Todd Gurley’s usage last week was concerning, despite his relatively strong showing, and he will be hard to trust at his lofty price tag until his volume increases. Outside of some running backs in this game, pretty much everyone is in-play.
Targets: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., Jared Cook, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp
Fades: Todd Gurley, Malcom Brown and Latavius Murray
Must-Owns: None (but exposure to this game may be essential)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always enjoy when I start writing about a game and then it organically develops into a confidence pick. Which is exactly what happened with the matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. The game, as a whole, should be excellent – although I said the same thing about the Falcons and Vikings, last week, and it was a big disappointment – but I would be shocked if both defenses are the story. I may not go all-in with offensive players from this game, but I am prepared to use as many as make sense for my lineup, given each salary.
Targets: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and Cooper Kupp
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Next up on our list of teams that people will overreact about are the Atlanta Falcons. Yes last week was ugly, very ugly in fact, but a bad game on the road against a divisional opponent is going to happen now and again. Their offense has plenty of fire power and should thrive at home against a Falcons defense that made Case Keenum and a bunch of unknown receivers look like all stars for a large portion of last week. The Eagles offense displayed its own fire power in their comeback last week, and should be able to score enough to keep up with the Falcons.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Calvin Ridley, Carson Wentz, Darren Sproles, DeSean Jackson and Zach Ertz
Fades: Ito Smith
Must-Owns: Julio Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I just keep thinking about how quickly everyone wrote off quarterback Matt Ryan, last year, and I don’t know why anyone would do the same immediately after he proved he has the ability to turn around a season after a bad start. More importantly, if we’re looking for a way to win a Primetime contest – these are actually where I have had my most success – we need to be ‘contrarian.’ You can couple these thoughts with what I write about the Monday night game, but the goal on Sunday Night Football will either be to load up on Falcons or avoid the game entirely and pick a defense.
Targets: Julio Jones, Both Defenses, Devonta Freeman, and Zach Ertz
Fades: Everyone from Philadelphia except Ertz
Must-Owns: Matt Ryan, if you don’t want to follow my recommendation for Monday
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After being America’s favorite team, the Browns – unsurprisingly to us – put up a major dud last week. They represent our final team to notice in overreaction week. They are definitely not as bad as what we saw last week, and with all the news with the Jets – no Sam Darnold, no Quincy Enunwa and Le’Veon Bell dealing with a banged up shoulder – makes it even easier to expect big things from the Browns this week. I won’t be overly shocked to see some production out of the Trevor Siemian led Jets as Siemian looks to take this opportunity to reestablish his career.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Trevor Siemian, Robby Anderson, and Demaryius Thomas (If he’s healthy and in the lineup – don’t forget his history with Siemian)
Fades: Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The loss of Sam Darnold for the New York Jets severely hurts their chances of winning the game in a big way, but they can compete with Trevor Siemian under center for a game. And, “compete” is exactly what we will need Siemian to do if we want to find immense value in a small slate. Siemian will be the quarterback for one of my Primetime teams, as he will either be throwing constantly to try to keep pace or he will be instrumental in the Jets having a lead. Elsewhere, if we’re avoiding offense on Sunday Night, then everyone is in-play on Monday.
Targets: As many offensive players as I can fit into a Primetime lineup
Fades: Browns running backs, as I expect a passing attack on Monday
Must-Owns: Marcus Siemian, Le’Veon Bell, and Odell Beckham, Jr.