Storylines are the key to this column on a weekly basis, but it is a necessity to look into each one for Week 17. With so many teams either trying to win to better their seeding or resting players to protect their health, almost every matchup needs to be viewed through these lenses.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 17 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of many games near the East Coast that is expected to be impacted by rain. That weather should force the Browns into doing what they should do anyway: run the ball. Nick Chubb is coming off his worst game of the season, but now has a matchup against the worst run defense in the entire league. The Browns have a chance to lock up one achievement this season: Nick Chubb winning the rushing title. There is no reason to look much past Chubb in this game.
Targets: Browns defense and Joe Mixon
Fades: Both teams passing games
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Prior to the start of the season, it looked like we might not get the same terrible close to the year with the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. One team – by popular opinion, Cleveland – had to be better than we’ve seen in the past, right? Wrong. The Browns and Bengals enter Sunday with a combined 7-24 record. It’s another pillow-fight in the making. But, we should see some offensive potential. And that’s great for fantasy purposes. The Bengals are still terrible against the run while Nick Chubb enters the week as the league’s leading rusher. That’s as great a storyline matchup as it gets. Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton is playing for a contract in a game that has absolutely no repercussions in any other area for the Bengals.
Targets: Nick Chubb and Andy Dalton
Fades: No one in particular, but I am probably not stacking this game
Must-Owns: None, but Chubb and Dalton are close
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bills are locked into a playoff position, and the Jets are eliminated from contention. Add to those facts that both teams have good, or very good, defenses and average-at-best offenses, and you have a recipe for complete and utter disaster. This game is arguably the easiest one of the week for me to avoid, because there is simply nobody that can be trusted in this game.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It won’t be easy, but the New York Jets have sneaky potential on Sunday. The Buffalo Bills have absolutely no reason to play hard, but they don’t exactly give the impression of a team that would mail in any game. It’s a compliment, but it’s also somewhat unwise. The following week, the Bills will travel, most likely to Houston. Having everyone at peak strength would be wise, so I’m avoiding all players from Buffalo with the expectation that the team does the same. I would like to take a calculated risk with players from the Jets, however, just not in bulk considering the possibility of the Bills bringing a real effort.
Targets: Sam Darnold and the Jets’ defense
Fades: Everyone from Buffalo
Must-Owns: None
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Cowboys are in a must-win situation, and given the struggles the passing game experienced last week, it seems likely the Cowboys go back to their bread-and-butter this week. Look for Ezekiel Elliott to be featured heavily this week and exploit the 29th ranked run defense in the league. Case Keenum is taking over for the injured Dwayne Haskins, and this game is likely somewhat of an audition for him to show other teams he can still play, so there will be plenty of motivation for him. Considering he’s actually played decently this season while on the field, he is an intriguing cheap option if you’re looking for significant cost savings.
Targets: Case Keenum and Redskins pass catchers – whichever ones are healthy
Fades: Cowboys passing game
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m sure it won’t be breaking news if the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Redskins on Sunday, but there is almost certainly going to be “breaking news” after the game. If the Cowboys win and the Eagles lose, the “news” will be that Dallas has won the division. Otherwise, we are probably looking at a vacant head coaching position for the Cowboys. Either way, we should see the best, concentrated effort from Dallas, and I can’t imagine that it won’t run through Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott. The former is more important as he personally aims for a contract extension during the offseason. It would bode well for his argument if he were able to deliver a big win in a key spot.
Targets: Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott
Fades: None, but I’m not diving into this game too heavily
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a matchup with a playoff-bound team looking to lock up the best position they can and a team that hasn’t won a game since Week 8, it’s not worth overthinking things. The Packers should be able to completely control this game on both sides of the ball, and even if their offense put up huge numbers, there is obvious appeal in playing some of the top Packers players this week in a tremendous matchup.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Devante Adams
Fades: Lions offense
Must-Owns: Packers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep expecting the Detroit Lions to play a better game of football and I continue to be disappointed. That shouldn’t change on Sunday, but I also don’t like the idea of blindly following the Green Bay Packers. They’ll be fine in a great matchup against the Lions’ terrible defense, but I would proceed with caution.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Devante Adams
Fades: Both defenses and most of Detroit’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chargers have all but broken down, and their offense is floundering with the struggling Philip Rivers. At this point, the only playable member of this offense are Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, but they present risks of their own. The Chiefs should once again take care of business against a lesser opponent, but barring a shocking Patriots loss to the Dolphins, the Chiefs’ playoff position is basically set, so I’m not expecting their absolute best this week with little play for, and a less than ideal matchup.
Targets: Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Chiefs defense, and Damien Williams
Fades: All top Chiefs players as their overall situations leave no real reason to pay top dollar
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Kansas City Chiefs will be one of many teams playing on Sunday that has something to gain by winning, but doing so is not exactly a necessity. Therefore, we might see some push from the Los Angeles Chargers. At least, during select parts of the game. The reality, however, is that Kansas City’s defense has been better, of late, and, for the first time in two years, I’m actually hesitant to use players against it. For the Chiefs’ offense, it is not inconceivable that the team learns of its seeding for the playoffs during the game and pulls its starters. For that reason, not only will I be avoiding Kansas City’s players, but I might swing for the fences and use Los Angeles’ defense as a ‘home run play.’
Targets: Chargers defense, Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Probably most of Kansas City’s offense, just to be on the safer side
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bears put up exactly the kind of game I was expecting last week, and it’s hard to imagine things getting better this week against another playoff team, and now being on the road. The Vikings had a typical Primetime letdown as well, but should have a moderate bounce back again this dejected Bears team.
Targets: Whichever Vikings running back is healthy enough to lead the way and Stefon Diggs – if he plays
Fades: Bears offense
Must-Owns: Vikings defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Using only the spread as an indicator, the fact that it dropped so violently from its open probably means that the Minnesota Vikings will not be using their best players against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. This may not matter, as Chicago has been such a disappointment, this year, but the Bears are also trying to save face by avoiding a losing record. There will be some undervalued targets from Chicago on Sunday.
Targets: Mitch Trubisky and Chicago’s defense
Fades: Minnesota’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Dolphins’ offense has been shockingly good of late, scoring at least 20 points in six consecutive games. With that said, a game against this Patriots defense, in Foxborough, is likely to end that streak. The Patriots offense still isn’t quite clicking, and considering three of their top four most utilized players are running backs, they are nearly impossible to trust outside of Julian Edelman. I’m expecting them to win this game handedly, but there isn’t a lot to feel comfortable about from a fantasy perspective.
Targets: Patriots three-headed running back monster and Julian Edelman
Fades: Dolphins offense
Must-Owns: Patriots defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick over the last month or so has helped the Miami Dolphins remain competitive. It’s possible that it happens again, but I simply can’t take the chance against the New England Patriots and their top-ranked defense. I do worry that New England jumps out to a lead and then coasts to victory without pushing its key players, so that will limit my exposure. Either way, the Patriots’ defense is a top option.
Targets: Julian Edelman
Fades: Miami’s offense
Must-Owns: New England’s defense
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Eagles managed to take control of the division last week, but wouldn’t it be perfectly fitting of the NFC East if the Eagles went on to lose this game and hand the division back over to the Cowboys? Daniel Jones had a good return last week, and has another favorable matchup this week against an Eagles defense that would’ve given up far more points last week had Dak Prescott and his receivers been anything above terrible. I like Jones to lead a surprising ‘upset’ as the Giants play the role of major ‘spoiler’ this year.
Targets: Greg Ward and Giants passing game
Fades: Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I refuse to accept that the Philadelphia Eagles will win a game simply because they ‘must.’ Is it possible? Of course. It’s actually ‘probable.’ But, it’s not a definite, and treating it as such means that the Eagles will be overvalued while the New York Giants will be undervalued. We just saw running back Saquon Barkley explode as per his potential and, while he likely doesn’t reach the same high bar, this week, he can’t be ignored.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, Daniel Jones, and Saquon Barkley
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but Goedert, at his price, might be a must
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: No matter who is on the field with him, Jameis Winston is going to continue being Jameis Winston. Last week he threw for well over 300 yards once again, but also had another four interceptions. While that is terrible real world football, he has been fantasy gold all season, and anyone who is catching passes from him has value week-in and week-out. The Falcons are enjoying a strong stretch of football recently, and should continue producing against this vulnerable Buccaneers defense. This game has obvious shootout potential.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, Austin Hooper, Jameis Winston, Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson, and O.J. Howard
Fades: Buccaneers defense
Must-Owns: None – but this game is almost impossible to ignore in a week full of forgettable matchups
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I love the fact that we know what we’re getting from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In a league in which secrecy is often rewarded, the Buccaneers essentially show their hand from the start of a game and don’t deviate. There is nothing to suggest that they won’t throw the ball mercilessly against the Atlanta Falcons. This doesn’t mean that it will work, but there is volume to be had. The irony is that the best upside actually comes from Atlanta’s defense, which has a total of 14 takeaways in the team’s six wins, but a combined three takeaways in the nine losses. Tampa Bay will almost certainly turn the ball over – it leads the league in this category – but it could also score 30 points and negate the Falcons’ defensive points.
Targets: Everyone on offense
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but it might be a necessity to own someone from this game
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With plenty still to play for, and an amazing matchup on tap, you don’t need me to tell you to use the Saints offense. The only thing to really keep in mind is potentially having exposure to Latavius Murray as this matchup is amazing for running backs, and this game could get out of hand early which would earn him some extra work. The Panthers are hinting at lessening Christian McCaffrey’s workload this week, but that seems odd given that he’s not nursing any injuries, and they’ve been officially eliminated for weeks already and still worked him to the bone. It is risky, but this could be a great spot to use him at lower ownership than we are used to.
Targets: Saints offense and Christian McCaffrey
Fades: Panthers offense besides McCaffrey
Must-Owns: None – but Latavius Murray is close to being here as he profiles as the perfect “out of nowhere” play of the week
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We do need to consider both the venue – outdoors – and the divisional familiarity before blindly buying into Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints’ offense on Sunday. But, as long as we can acknowledge the risk associated with it, we can comfortably look to a team that has scored at least 31 points in seven-of-its-last-nine-games as a source for fantasy players. Wide receiver Michael Thomas already breaking the record for most receptions in a season means that we can’t target him for the volume, alone, but it is still difficult to look anywhere else when he’s an option. The same is true for Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers, as he continues to see absurd volume. Last week, he had a whopping 15 targets – three times higher than any other player in the game, let alone on his own team. What’s more insane is that he caught all fifteen of them.
Targets: Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Christian McCaffrey
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jaguars have scored a maximum of 20 points since Week 9, and many of those games have come against very beatable secondaries. Despite some nice pieces on this offense, it is clearly a group, and a team, that is broken, and I simply cannot invest in a team this deep in a slump. Speaking of the Jaguars being broken, their defense is getting torched by running backs week in and week out. If Jordan Wilkins is out, Marlon Mack becomes a borderline must-play, but either way, the ground game of the Colts should firmly control this game.
Targets: Colts defense and running backs
Fades: Jaguars offense
Must-Owns: Marlon Mack – if Wilkins is out
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: News has broken that the Jacksonville Jaguars are moving on from head coach Doug Marrone following the team’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. This feels like odd timing for such an announcement, and I am admittedly unsure as to how it relates to on-field play. It doesn’t change my pick nor the level of confidence with it, but it simply feels odd. There is an added level of difficulty in projecting fantasy targets as Leonard Fournette is out – which makes Ryquell Armstead a possible play – while Gardner Minshew and Jordan Wilkins are injured. We can only rely on matchups at this point.
Targets: Ryquell Armstead, Marlon Mack, and whichever quarterback plays for Jacksonville
Fades: Mostly everyone else because of the uncertainty
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has potential to be one of the higher scoring matchups, but it’s hard to fully trust it. The Titans have all the motivation in the world as they are in a win and get in situation, but if the Chiefs win their game earlier in the day, this game is meaningless for the Texans. Because of this uncertainty, and the likelihood the Chiefs win, the Texans very well may rest their starters for part of this game making them nearly impossible to trust.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill
Fades: Texans offense
Must-Owns: A.J. Brown
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Houston Texans are dealing with injuries and the likelihood of resting players because of playoff seeding. This puts too much of a risk onto playing anyone from Houston. Instead, a Tennessee Titans team that needs to win and has done so with offense will be the top target.
Targets: Everyone from Tennessee’s offense
Fades: Everyone from Houston
Must-Owns: Derrick Henry
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Raiders are one of the most interesting teams of the week due to their postseason situation. They are still alive, but they need a win and a series of other outcomes to all happen in order to sneak into the final playoff position. While that makes them intriguing, this offense has not given us a whole lot recently, and it’s hard to trust them against a solid Denver defense. Assuming Josh Jacobs is out again, DeAndre Washington will once again be on our radar, but this game doesn’t offer a lot of fantasy excitement.
Targets: DeAndre Washington and Courtland Sutton
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Oakland Raiders are still alive in the playoff chase, and that gives them both potential and attention on Sunday. There is even some sneaky good news for the Raiders in that the Denver Broncos have actually found an offense, and a defensive team that suddenly gains an offense occasionally leads to a slight decline on defense – look at the Titans as an example of this. Denver has now scored at least 24 points in four-of-its-six-games following its bye week. In those same six games, it allowed 20 points five times. Oakland’s defense remains vulnerable, which results in targets from either side of the matchup. I wouldn’t go overboard, but it’s definitely a game from which we can find some value plays.
Targets: Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, and DeAndre Washington
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game may be completely useless in the grand scheme of the season, but it does feature arguably the two hottest fantasy players in the league right now. Kenyan Drake has had two monster games in a row now, and Tyler Higbee has suddenly gone from irrelevant to being one of the best tight ends in the league with four consecutive 100 yard games. Drake will continue to be the focal point of the Cardinals offense, while the passing game for the Rams should have no troubles this week against the putrid pass defense of the Cardinals.
Targets: Kenyan Drake
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Jared Goff and Tyler Higbee
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The injury to Kyler Murray puts much of the Arizona Cardinals’ offense in a risky position. I’m not the biggest fan of Murray, but his head coach believes in him enough to let him take over a game. I generally love the volume he provides as a result. Therefore, if he is limited, I don’t know how much I can expect from Arizona’s offense against a solid Los Angeles Rams defense. More likely, I lean on the Rams’ offense in a fantastic matchup against the Cardinals’ terrible defense. Los Angeles is officially eliminated from the playoffs, but the reigning NFC Champions are likely to make a statement before the year ends. I will consider stacking players from Los Angeles on Sunday.
Targets: All players from Los Angeles
Fades: Basically, the Cardinals
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are many teams this week that will be getting absolutely none of my attention, and these are two of them. The Steelers are once again going back to Duck Hodges for what is seemingly their eighth quarterback change of the year. This offense has been completely unreliable all season long, and they have a terrible matchup ahead of them, even with the Ravens sitting some of their top players. The Ravens offense was typically all about Lamar Jackson, and with him handing the reigns over to Robert Griffin III, this offense falls that much further off my radar, especially given thetough matchup against a very good and very motivated Steelers defense.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whenever I stop to think that I might be going too extreme, I usually find out that I’m actually going in the right direction. All week, I have bought into the belief that the Baltimore Ravens are going to rely heavily on Robert Griffin III to prove that the team is dangerous everywhere and under any condition. I will use Griffin in a lineup if I have more than one. Gus Edwards is probably a must-play with Mark Ingram expected to sit. Baltimore’s defense is one of my top targets, as well, as nothing about the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense impresses me.
Targets: Robert Griffin III and Baltimore’s Defense
Fades: Everyone from Pittsburgh
Must-Owns: Gus Edwards
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the return of Marshawn Lynch is incredibly exciting, I am having a hard time thinking that the Seahawks will be leaning heavily on a running back who hasn’t played a game in over a year in the most important game of their season. If the Seahawks are going to be successful this week, it is going to have to be on the back of Russell Wilson who has been the key to their success all season long. This will be the biggest test of Jimmy Garappolo’s career, and he has an up and down history in big moments, so how he fares in the limelight this week is hard to truly predict. I expect him and this offense to lean heavily on their most reliable weapon, George Kittle.
Targets: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Raheem Mostert, and Emmanuel Sanders
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson and George Kittle
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Normally, I write about the night games as part of a Primetime slate. For the lone Primetime game of the weekend, however, I’ll attack the division-deciding matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers as a possible ‘Showdown’ play. We’re immediately thrust into a tough position as we have to decide between the 49ers’ elite defense and one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Russell Wilson. Quite frankly, I will almost never move away from Wilson, as the man single-handedly keeps Seattle relevant even when the numbers aren’t there. He’s a must-own for me, although I wouldn’t go as far as making him the captan – I prefer a pass-catcher there. Tyler Lockett has fallen off a cliff in terms of production and was shut down by the 49ers in their last meeting, but I find it difficult to not own him due to his high target totals and the trust that Wilson has placed in him. And it’s not always ideal to own a defense and quarterback from the same team – it usually requires a one-sided game – but I haven’t seen enough from San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo to tell me that he won’t turn the ball over in a road game with huge consequences. The 49ers rank 20th in giveaways. They do, however, run the ball extremely well, and I don’t see how we can ignore the emergence of Raheem Mostert. The rest of my lineup will consist of him, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, and kickers.
Targets: Tyler Lockett, Seattle’s Defense, and Raheem Mostert
Fades: San Francisco’s defense
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson and George Kittle