Despite three games being played on Saturday, we have a decent sized slate for this weekend’s games. There just aren’t many good ones. At least, not for us as football fans. But, we actually have a surprising amount of fantasy potential littered throughout Sunday, and that includes some of the worst games to actually watch or follow.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jaguars put up a whopping 20 points last week, and that output tied their highest score since Week 8. This offense has simply crumbled, and even with a decent matchup ahead of them, I can’t invest in a struggling offense with nothing to play for this late in the season. In the absence of Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones put on a show last week, and while he may not be able to replicate that performance, his volume should continue to be sky high, with Austin Hooper and Russell Gage seeing solid volume as well for cheaper price tags.
Targets: Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Austin Hooper
Fades: Jaguars offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we had a game between this year’s Jacksonville Jaguars and the Atlanta Falcons of 2015 or 2016, we would be salivating at the chance to play running back Devonta Freeman against Jacksonville’s now-pathetic run defense. As it stands now, this might be the right time to use Freeman again, but the hesitation speaks to how risky Atlanta is. This is the case for the rest of the offense, as it is dangerous to trust them blindly. But, playing at home for the final time of the season, I’d be fine with dipping my toe into the Atlanta player pool. I also would roll the dice with quarterback Gardner Minshew in a lineup – or, if a surprising twist leads to Nick Foles – for the potential that Jacksonville has to keep pace with Atlanta.
Targets: Gardner Minshew and Devonta Freeman
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is going to play out in one of two ways: a Ravens blowout or a second defeat at the hands of the Browns. No matter which outcome occurs, I will stick my guns that the only playable Raven is Lamar Jackson. There have obviously been games where Mark Ingram or Mark Andrews have played very well, but it requires multiple touchdowns for them to return serviceable value, and that is hard to trust week to week. The Browns could possibly pull off the upset, but it is really hard to trust Baker Mayfield against this surging Ravens defense.
Targets: Lamar Jackson and Ravens defense
Fades: Browns offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Division games general make me lean in the direction of the ‘unpredictable,’ but we can “predict” that the Baltimore Ravens will take the same approach of a relentless running attack as they have, all season. The question is about the Cleveland Browns. Will they stop the Ravens? Or slow them down? Or do anything at all on offense? And, most importantly, after already being the only team to badly beat the Ravens, will they be able to find the same key to success as last time? There is too little clarity to feel comfortable leaning in any direction, but I do expect the better versions of both teams to appear on Sunday. Cautiously, I’ll look for both running games to have success.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and Nick Chubb
Fades: Too much exposure to either team’s passing attack
Must-Owns: None
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it may feel wrong to say, this game likely has the easiest path to being high-scoring. The Saints’ offense is absolutely rolling, and Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are continuing to knock on the door of historic seasons, so look for them to continue tearing defenses apart. Ryan Tannehill has turned this Titans offense around, but he will have to be at his very best to keep up with the Saints. This will be a rare case where I fully support the Titans passing game while shying away from Derrick Henry due to the likely game flow and unfavorable matchup.
Targets: Both teams’ passing games
Fades: Derrick Henry and both defenses
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans almost never play in what-we-would-call ‘the best game of the week,’ but that might change on Sunday when they play host to the New Orleans Saints. Tennessee’ offense has been thriving, and the Saints defense has a tendency to fail to show up to games. For arguably the first time ever, I expect the Titans to have a better chance winning a game because of offense and not defense. I know. It’s crazy. What’s even crazier is that Tennessee now has a weapon in the passing game – and not the tight end – so we can look for points from both angles. And, we can’t mention the Saints without including quarterback Drew Brees. He definitely loses some of his high ceiling by going from a dome on Monday Night Football to an outdoor game in Tennessee on Sunday, but there is almost no way that we can exclude wide receiver Michael Thomas from a lineup as he closes in on the single-season reception record.
Targets: Everyone in this game is in-play
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Looking at the schedule, I originally did not see a lot of reason to like this game, but I have changed my mind. The Colts are likely due to rebound after a horrendous game last week, and the Panthers’ defense has been about as bad as it gets recently. On the other side, Will Grier will be making his first start, and considering Kyle Allen was largely struggling during their current six game losing streak, why not see what you have in your young quarterback? Seeing as the Panthers are playing in a lost season and with an interim head coach, I fully expect them to take some chances and look to make some plays this week rather than ease Grier into things.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton – barring injury news – and Zach Pascal
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Will Grier
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s nice when both teams present storylines for a matchup, as we can target whichever side has the best potential for its respective price. The Carolina Panthers are turning to a rookie quarterback in Will Grier, and we have to decide if the Panthers were right to draft him as early as they did or if the fact that he couldn’t beat out Kyle Allen for the backup job is an indication that he is in trouble. Now might be the best time to take advantage of the unknown factor and buy into Grier. The Indianapolis Colts’ storyline comes in the form of a rebound after a terrible game in New Orleans as the Colts play in front of their home crowd for the final time in 2019.
Targets: Will Grier, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Marlon Mack, and T.Y. Hilton
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A few weeks ago, this game looked like it was have serious value from a draft pick perspective, but the Bengals seemingly have the number one pick locked up by now. Even with that, I’m expecting the Bengals to win this lowly battle, and I think it will be on the back of Joe Mixon who has been playing very well lately in far from ideal situations. This week, he gets a favorable matchup and a likely positive game flow as well. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to lead a decent offense, and against this Bengals defense, there is no reason to expect that to change. Myles Gaskins has seen his workload increasing, and he has been outplaying Patrick Laird, so he may be worth a cheap flier this week.
Targets: Tyler Boyd, DeVante Parker, and Myles Gaskin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Joe Mixon
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins is the first of the two ‘Who wants it less?’ matchups about which I will write, and it’s a legitimate question to ask between two teams with a combined four wins. The key is that Cincinnati can ‘afford’ a win and not hurt its draft position. That, and the fact that quarterback Andy Dalton is not as terrible as many people like to suggest. The latter is also true for Ryan Fitzpatrick, as he has brought an undeniable spark to a lifeless Miami team. We might have some sneaky potential for offense between two of the worst teams in the league.
Targets: Everyone, as I would be willing to use almost any player from this matchup
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Aside from the Le’Veon Bell revenge game angle, there is really no reason to look at this game. Both of these offenses have largely struggled – especially the Steelers – and this matchup doesn’t look great for either team. The Steelers would prefer to run the ball, but the Jets will likely shut that down and force Devlin Hodges to make plays. The Steelers defense has been dominant and is the sole reason this team is hanging on to a playoff spot right now.
Targets: Le’Veon Bell and both defenses
Fades: All other offensive players besides Bell
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whenever we write about game flow, its with the intention that we can reasonably project a few possible outcomes that lead to big fantasy performances. In the game between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers, we have opposing game flow projections that still have value. One is that New York’s offense breaks through the impenetrable Steelers’ defense. If this happens, quarterback Sam Darnold will lead the way likely with a revenge game from running back Le’Veon Bell. Otherwise, the Steelers shut down the Jets and lean on their running game to find enough yards to lead to the handful of scores they typically use to win games.
Targets: Le’Veon Bell and either defense
Fades: Both teams’ passing games
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The two rookie quarterbacks will get a chance at a rematch this week with Daniel Jones recovered from his ankle injury. Between both of their struggles, and Jones’ recent ankle injury, I’m finding it hard to have much interest in this game. The Redskins will likely to continue leaning on Adrian Peterson which makes him mildly appealing in a positive matchup along with Terry McLaurin who is capable of making plays all on his own. If there is one Giant who is happy to have Jones back, it is Golden Tate who had one catch in each of Eli Manning’s two starts. Tate was playing well with Jones before his injury, so look for Tate to have a good bounce back performance.
Targets: Adrian Peterson and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins
Must-Owns: Golden Tate
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I mentioned that there were two ‘Who wants it less?’ games on this weekend’s schedule. The pillow-fight between the Washington Redskins and New York Giants is the second such game. Oddly enough – and like the first – there is the opportunity for offense as both quarterbacks look to prove something before season’s end. In addition, the Giants’ defense has been completely terrible for much of the season, and it gives Washington’s offensive a much-needed boost. But, as that happens, the reverse is also true, where New York’s offense has its moment to shine.
Targets: Another game in which I could justify the use of almost anyone
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Well I took my chances on the David Blough train last week, and that train ride was a wreck. In the most ideal matchup and game flow, he let us down, and in a worse matchup and worse game flow, I simply cannot get back on that train. Danny Amendola is a somewhat reasonable play due to his likely volume on easy routes, but outside of him, this offense is hard to like this week. After a heroic showing two weeks ago by Drew Lock and the Broncos, last week brought a harsh return the struggles of the NFL. it could have been the weather or it could have been just a tougher matchup. It another great matchup this week, Lock, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant have some appeal
Targets: Danny Amendola, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant
Fades: David Blough and all running backs in this game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s easy to overlook the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions in any matchup for fantasy purposes, but the two playing against each other makes for intriguing potential. If Denver’s Drew Lock turns out to be good, then he has an incredible matchup against one of the worst defenses in the league. There is no reason to think that he won’t thrive in said matchup, so he slides in as a sneaky play on Sunday. Detroit’s upside is severely limited by Denver’s defense, but we have also seen no fight from the Lions as they wind down their season. Now that their head coach is staying for another season, we might actually get a surprising boost from the team. Admittedly, there’s little to target from Detroit, but, as much as I see value in going with Drew Lock for his risk-reward, I also like the ‘risk’ side of it for the Lions. Their defense could be the key to a surprisingly close game.
Targets: Both defenses and Drew Lock
Fades: The rest of the offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Raiders’ offense has not exceeded 21 points since Week 10, and playing a Chargers defense that ranks 5th in total yards allowed per game and 8th points allowed per game, I don’t have a lot of faith in a big turnaround. That is especially considering they will be without Josh Jacobs this week. Jacobs’ absence make DeAndre Washington a viable cheap option, but overall it hurts the offense. One week after putting up an impressive 45 points, the Chargers followed that up with a 10 point dud. It’s impossible to know what to expect from this Chargers team, but against a vulnerable Raiders secondary, the passing game has some appeal.
Targets: DeAndre Washington and Chargers passing game
Fades: Derek Carr and Melvin Gordon
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Oakland Raiders did their best to impersonate the Los Angeles Chargers via a last-second, heart-breaking loss, and the team is now asked to rebound by playing against the squad it mimicked. The division familiarity and potential to bounce back gives the Raiders some offense worth targeting, but the defense remains a liability. The Chargers truly have nothing on-the-line – neither as a ‘contender’ or ‘spoiler’ – but they are looking to also rebound from a tough loss. “Tough” is putting it mildly. Los Angeles imploded to the tune of seven turnovers in its last game. Against the aforementioned “liability” that is Oakland’s defense, everyone from the Chargers is in-play. I will probably lean most on Aaron Ekeler as he tries to close out a breakout year on a high note.
Targets: Everyone from Los Angeles
Fades: Everyone from Oakland
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Both of these teams have been incredibly inconsistent, and despite sitting at 7-7 each, this is one of the most important games of the week. The Eagles and their depleted offense will be tasked with taking down a Cowboys team that just had one of their best games of the season. In a situation like this, I fully expect the Eagles to lean on their only true weapons at this point: Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders. The Cowboys defense can be beat, and these are the two guys likely to do it. For the Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott led the way last week, but against the Eagles, the passing game will have to be the focus as that is the clear cut better matchup.
Targets: Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a week of relative poor matchups, we have one of the best in the battle for the NFC East between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. But, we may not have the best of the battle on Sunday. Quarterback Dak Prescott is not 100 percent healthy, and it turns him into a major risk. It does, however, lower his ownership potential. Remember that Prescott is still seeking a big contract. Beating the Eagles’ defense – not an impossible task by any stretch of the imagination – would go a long way in supporting his argument for more money. On the other side of the matchup, there might not be a team better suited to play another ‘must-win’ game than the Eagles. There is some irony in that quarterback Carson Wentz was not the one to win said “must-win” games in the past, but he has kept his team fighting into mid-December. Miles Sanders also continues to prove his worth and needs to remain an integral part of the offense as Philadelphia fights to stay alive in the division race.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders, and Zach Ertz
Fades: None, as this game could get out-of-hand in either direction
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The return of Chris Carson as the sole running back yielded the exact results that we expected. This week, the Seahawks have another very good matchup, and a game script that sets up nicely for him again. There is no reason to think that he isn’t in line for another heavy workload and productive game. Kyler Murray will have his hands full trying to keep up with the Seahawks offense, but the matchup against the Seahawks defense allowing the fourth most passing yards per game makes it doable. Murray and his receivers a worth a look this week.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Russell Wilson
Fades: Seahawks pass catchers
Must-Owns: Chris Carson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Not only do I write the same thing about the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, individually, each week, but I am happy to write the same thing about these two teams, each week. It’s because they rarely deviate from their plan and they are, more than most teams, projectable. The Cardinals will give up points. The Seahawks will run the ball. Russell Wilson will do well. But, Arizona will also score. In other words, we’re looking at the same offensive potential for the Cardinals and Seahawks that we get on a weekly basis, only in the same game.
Targets: Everyone from both offenses
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I am leaning toward Kyler Murray as my quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even in snowy conditions, the Chiefs’ offense gave us a good show last week and reminded everyone just how talented of a group they have. This Bears defense isn’t a perfect matchup, but the trio of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are capable of producing any given week, and this week shouldn’t be an exception. The Bears season is officially over, and just a year after being in the conversation for Super Bowl favorites at this time, they now have nothing to play for. While I don’t like totally quitting on a team, I don’t have much faith in a team playing a meaningless game, when they had high expectations this season, and they are facing off against a team with plenty left to play for.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
Fades: Entire Bears team
Must-Owns: Chiefs defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Using the spread as a guide, there is a chance that the Kansas City Chiefs – or those picking them – will be walking into a ‘trap’ on Sunday night against the Chicago Bears. This leads to the Bears being the obvious ‘contrarian’ pick. The problem with this approach is that Kansas City’s defense has done far better recently than in the beginning of the year. If the Chiefs have, indeed, hit their stride, then it might be wrong to attack them. But, the ‘contrarian’ route leads to the Bears’ defense and essentially no one from Kansas City. There will also be some respect given to Chicago’s defense that prevent Kansas City, as a full stack, to bot be overly owned.
Targets: If ‘contrarian,’ then Chicago’s defense and Tarik Cohen; otherwise, everyone from Kansas City
Fades: Mitch Trubisky
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Monday night game this week is a treat as we have a division rivalry matchup with tremendous playoff implications. By now, you surely know how I feel about Kirk Cousins outlook in a crucial, Primetime game. I especially don’t like his outlook this week considering he is likely to be without both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. While their absences make Mike Boone an appealing fantasy option, it overall hurts the prospects of the Vikings’ offense. The one saving grace for this Vikings team is that their defense is playing good football and has a chance to keep them in this game. For the Packers’ offense to be effective, Aaron Jones and Devante Adams will have to win their matchups because frankly, nobody else on the Packers offense has the upper hand.
Targets: Aaron Jones, Devante Adams, Mike Boone, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen
Fades: Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Sticking with using the spread to identify potential ‘traps’ – which is the basis of many of my picks – the Green Bay Packers might be in a dangerous position on Monday night. But, this would come to fruition if the Minnesota Vikings’ defense rises to the occasion – it can – or if quarterback Kirk Cousins has a big day. The latter is possible, but we can’t avoid the harsh reality that Cousins has never won a Monday Night Football game in his career. It could change, but Green Bay’s defense can play well enough to keep the Vikings from exploding. If leaning on the ‘contrarian’ plan or using offense from Sunday night, then there is enough star power to find offense on Monday.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Devante Adams, Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen
Fades: Both defenses unless you went heavy with offense in Sunday night’s game
Must-Owns: None