One of the main purposes of this column is to highlight the storylines that go along with the statistics and trends we like to find in each matchup. This week, storylines are on full display, where many work nicely with the expected game flow.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 15 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Patriots seem to be falling off of everyone’s radar in terms of legitimate contenders as they are one of the only top teams that hasn’t been at their very best lately. With that said, this is a generous matchup, and one that their defense in particular should be able to dominate. With that, the Patriots’ offense figures to be under low stress and allow their running backs to handle a bulk of the work as runners and receivers
Targets: Patriots running backs – mainly James White and Sony Michel
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: Patriots defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I don’t want to turn this writeup into a forum for bashing quarterback Ryan Findley, but the fact that Andy Dalton will be under center again – at least, as far as we know – is a sign that the Cincinnati Bengals can have some life on Sunday. Neither quarterback will be in a great position against the New England Patriots’ defense, but Dalton allows us to have some faith in a player like Tyler Boyd. On the other side of the game, it looks like we will return to our favorite conundrum of deciding where to go with a Patriots’ running back. This time, it’s because of the favorable matchup against the Bengals’ pathetic run defense.
Targets: Tyler Boyd, New England’s defense and running backs
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Jameis Winston proved me wrong last week because no matter how bad he plays, or how poor his situation is, he will seemingly always find a way to have a good fantasy day. The absence of Mike Evans will hurt, but without him last week, Winston still managed to lead a good fantasy offense, and considering how bad the Lions’ defense is, there’s no reason to turn away from the Buccaneers this week. While David Blough may have struggled in his second start, the matchup could not be better this week, and without TJ Hockenson and Marvin Jones Jr., his targets are so limited that the Lions have appeal this week.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Justin Watson, David Blough, Kenny Golladay, and Danny Amendola
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Chris Godwin
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I tried to find any reason whatsoever as to how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wouldn’t thrive on offense against the Detroit Lions, and I came up empty. Only the possible injury to quarterback Jameis Winston strikes me as a potential for a sudden decrease, but the rest of the offense is moving so fluidly that, even if Winston isn’t at 100 percent and even if the Lions can slow down the offense, almost nothing will stop Tampa Bay from scoring. With Mike Evans out, Chris Godwin steps in as the top wide receiver in a year in which we have had to constantly choose between the two. The one home run play, however, is actually the Lions’ defense. Tampa Bay will turn the ball over – so the Lions have a decent starting point in that regard – with the potential for a sneaky high score occurring if the Buccaneers don’t explode.
Targets: Lions defense with extreme risk, otherwise, everyone
Fades: Tampa Bay’s defense
Must-Owns: At least someone from this game, with Chris Godwin being the current top choice
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I don’t expect to see an exact repeat of the 13 total points we saw in this matchup from Week 1, I’m not counting on this game for a ton of offense either. The Bears’ defense is still one of the tougher units in the league, and if the game doesn’t scream “high-scoring,” there is no reason to have a ton of faith in this offense, even with their recent successes.
Targets: David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, and Aaron Jones
Fades: Mitchell Trubisky and Aaron Rodgers
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chicago Bears have quietly moved back into the picture of respectability and, while the playoffs a distant – but real – possibility, we should see the best of Chicago on display in a rivalry game against the Green Bay Packers. The problem is that I’m not really sure what the “best of Chicago” is other than stellar defense. This does limit how much exposure to the Packers I would want, but Green Bay’s defense has dominated weaker offenses over the course of the season. The Bears’ offense is firmly in the “weaker” category until further notice.
Targets: Either defense, but not strongly
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Texans were on the wrong side of possibly the biggest ‘upset’ of last week, and now they find themselves in the middle of a battle with the Titans for the division lead. This game carries significant meaning, and I find it hard to believe that Deshaun Watson will allow his team to have two straight disappointing efforts. The Titans’ defense continues to be vulnerable to the passing attack, so this is a perfect bonce back opportunity for the Texans. Ryan Tannehill continues to prove his value to this Titans offense, but at the end of the day, this offense continues to revolves around Derrick Henry. Until he slows down, there is no reason to jump off the train.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Derrick Henry
Fades:All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At one point, we are going to see the Tennessee Titans’ offense slow down, but, as long as the team keeps feeding running back Derrick Henry, we have an immediate starting place for exposure to each of their games. The good news – for fantasy purposes – is that Tennessee’s sudden interest in offense has led to a lack of stout defense, and opponents have moved the ball well against the Titans in recent weeks. With that, how do the Houston Texans not have a big day offensively? As much as I am hesitant to ever trust the Texans, they have a quarterback who was in the conversation for the Most Valuable Player award a few weeks ago in Deshaun Watson and an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. I’m starting my lineup construction there.
Targets: Derrick Henry and Deshaun Watson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m always hesitant to jump on board with a rookie quarterback that’s impressing the world, and this is no exception. Drew Lock has certainly shown promise in his brief stint as the starter in Denver, but this Chiefs defense has quietly been solid the past few weeks against respectable offenses. Overall, this game doesn’t quite feel like one that’s worth targeting even with a Chiefs offense that I almost always love.
Targets: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In the same vein in which we had to mention David Blough’s legitimacy for the Lions, last week, we have to start any writeup about the Denver Broncos with quarterback Drew Lock. After leading the team to a shaky victory against the Chargers, he followed it up with a no-doubt destruction of the Texans. But, how good was Lock in the game? And how much of his performance was due to Houston overlooking Lock? He might be the answer in Denver but, in a stark contrast to what I normally write about the Kansas City Chiefs, I’m not so sure Lock is in position to shine on Sunday. The Chiefs have quietly moved out of the basement in defensive categories, and it means that I won’t be using Lock in the familiar role of “a quarterback playing against Kansas City.” I will, however, consider a running back from Denver. As for the Chiefs’ offense, it had no problem scoring against the Broncos in the pair’s first meeting, and that was with Matt Moore playing for the majority of the game. I won’t be shying away from Kansas City.
Targets: Philip Lindsay, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Drew Lock and Denver’s wide receivers
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s not often that a game with two teams that have a combined five wins could be exciting, but that may be the case this week. While both teams have spent most of the season being terrible, they each have some dynamic potential on offense, and they both have terrible defenses. The concentrated volume on these offenses makes this a fairly safe game to find some value.
Targets: All relevant offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Isiah Ford – if DeVante Parker is out
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The injury to New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has moved Eli Manning back into the position of starting quarterback yet again and makes for a more intriguing storyline than the one we just had. There had been rumors that Manning would start one-of-the-last-two home games for the Giants so that his fans could give him a proper farewell, but the timing was never right. Now, with Jones still out, the Giants can let Manning play on Sunday and then turn back to a healthy Jones to close the year. In other words, we might be seeing the final home game for Eli Manning, and it will be against a terrible – albeit semi-inspired – Miami Dolphins team. As good as the storyline is for New York, however, that’s how great the matchup is for Miami. In the end, basically everyone is in-play in what-could-be an ugly, but high-scoring, contest.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As much as I always support playing offenses against the Eagles secondary, this week will be an exception. The Redskins’ offense has simply shown us nothing in recent weeks to make me consider them even in a positive matchup. The Eagles offense also has a great matchup, but is there anyone in this offense that is both healthy and reliable other than Zach Ertz? I think the answer is no which makes him the only person I’ll be targeting in this matchup.
Targets: Zach Ertz and Eagles defense
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are quite a few moving parts for the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins. We just watched Philadelphia play a completely lifeless game against the Giants, only to turn on the intensity and refuse to be stopped en route to a victory. Isn’t it possible that Philadelphia does the exact same thing against Washington? But what about the Redskins? After allowing 30.2 points-per-game over the first five weeks of the season, Washington has allowed more than 24 points only once since then. It’s enough to give me pause in either direction.
Targets: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia’s defense, and Chris Thompson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns:
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game feels like one of the easier ones to project from a fantasy standpoint this week. The Seahawks love to run the ball, and the Panthers are being utterly dominated by opposing running backs. It seems likely that the Seahawks play most of this game with a lead forcing the Panthers to throw the ball often which will allow Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore to continue seeing elite volume in a solid matchup.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore
Fades: Seattle wide receivers
Must-Owns: Chris Carson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s never difficult for me to turn to Russell Wilson in any capacity – be-it for fantasy purposes or picks. Even if the matchup is poor and the setup for a potential ‘trap’ is in-place, Wilson has potential. But I’m not sure where else we can see it in the game between the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks. Besides, of course, Christian McCaffrey. I’d only be leaning on each team’s superstar from this matchup.
Targets: Russell Wilson and Chris Carson
Fades: Wide receivers from both teams
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey, but Chris Carson is borderline ‘must-own’
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you haven’t been actively following, you may have missed just how horrible the Jaguars have been lately. They have lost a whopping five consecutive games by a margin of 17 points or greater which is nothing short of incredible. If Josh Jacobs is able to return, he presents an elite fantasy option, and if not, DeAndre Washington is in line for another big game in his absence against a Jaguars team that appears to have quit on their season and their coach.
Targets: Leonard Fournette, Dede Westbrook, Josh Jacobs – if healthy – and Darren Waller
Fades: Jaguars defense
Must-Owns: DeAndre Washington – only if Josh Jacobs is out again
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The purpose of this writeup is to highlight storylines, and we have one for the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. This week will be, by all accounts, the final home game for the Raiders in Oakland. Immediately, we have value from increased focus by the Raiders. And, the reports are currently that running back Josh Jacobs will play. If that’s true, he has a ridiculously great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a run defense that no longer can stop an opponent. It’s such a favorable matchup that it seems like Jacobs willed himself back to health in order to play against Jacksonville. If he can’t go, then DeAndre Washington is a no-doubt plug-and-play option for the same reason. I will, however, look for some offense from Jacksonville, as the team had shown flashes of potential earlier in the season and will face a Raiders defense allowing the fifth-most yards-per-game in the league.
Targets: All offensive players, as neither team should significantly slow down the other
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Josh Jacobs if he plays, otherwise it’s DeAndre Washington – and I might own Washington at his price regardless of Jacobs’ status
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Browns are one of the most confusing teams in football, as they are loaded with offensive fire power, yet they almost never have a player produce elite fantasy numbers. With the way the offense is currently operating, there is apparently no matchup that warrants significant fantasy commitment. As another year nears its conclusion, we are left in a familiar spot of questioning whether or not this is Larry Fitzgerald’s last ever game in Arizona. You are probably sick of reading about it by now, but with every passing season, the likelihood of him retiring grows greater every year. Even if there is no merit to the logic, we are not going to miss out on his potential final performance in front of the home crowd that has cheered him on for his entire career.
Targets: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Larry Fitzgerald
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I might have actually written these same words for three consecutive years, now, but Larry Fitzgerald might be playing his last home game of his career. He becomes a must-start for me. Elsewhere, the Arizona Cardinals feature arguably the most frenetic offense in the league in the sense that they have different talent types at the various positions. The Cardinals feature a quarterback who likes to run, a speedy wide receiver who can break big plays, a former superstar running back – and an effective backup – and a the aforementioned future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver. But, despite the different parts, Arizona has been fairly predictable over the last half of the season. If they can control the tempo, they generally have success on offense. But, against a lockdown defense, they struggle for the majority of the game. Against the Cleveland Browns, the Cardinals appear set up to land somewhere in the middle. But, this is built on the premise that Cleveland plays its best game. It doesn’t always, and it leaves the door open for Arizona to find success on offense. Cleveland does, as well.
Targets: Kyler Murray
Fades: Too much exposure to Cleveland’s offense
Must-Owns: Larry Fitzgerald
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Vikings are holding off the surging Rams for the final playoff spot, and this is a critical matchup for their playoff hopes. The Chargers have had what can only be considered a disappointing season, but don’t they seem like they perfect team to play spoiler? They are a team loaded with talent, and they can easily upset this Vikings teams that is prone to disappointment in the most critical moments under Kirk Cousins. I’m not expecting a fantasy gold mine in this game, but my interest will be focused on a Chargers ‘upset.’
Targets: Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler
Fades: Vikings offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I found the matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings to be one of the more difficult to project against-the-spread, and I suspect it is because neither team has consistently played to the same level week-after-week. We have seen the best-and-worst of both squads, and it leaves us in a position to try to anticipate which appears on Sunday. Granted, that is the job but, with fantasy options found elsewhere, it might be best to stay away. Both defenses have been solid, but either offense could explode at any given moment. The other storyline to consider is the re-emergence of Austin Ekeler. He was always at-risk to lose touches to Melvin Gordon – and he did – but last week’s big game might lead to the Chargers turning back to the player who delivered early in the season.
Targets: Austin Ekeler
Fades: Too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Having played close attention to the Cowboys and all their inconsistencies this season, it has become clear that it is only worth trusting this offense in very positive matchups. This Rams team has been on a roll lately, and this defense in particular has been playing well lately.With Gerald Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee is arguably the most underpriced player on the main slate of games considering his performance the last two weeks.
Targets: Todd Gurley
Fades: Cowboys offense
Must-Owns: Tyler Higbee
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: From an against-the-spread perspective, the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams is one of the most intriguing of the weekend. The key is in finding how that translates to the fantasy side of the game. If the Cowboys are to pull off what-is-now an ‘upset,’ it will almost certainly require a big game from quarterback Dak Prescott. He actually has the best game flow setup of any player, as he would also see increased volume if the Rams were to control the game. But, other than Los Angeles’ defense delivering, I’m not sure how else the Rams would control the game. We have an unfortunate pairing of relative strength against relative strength, but it does leave the Cowboys in a position to be undervalued.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Tyler Higbee, and I might take a chance with an underpriced player like Malcolm Brown
Fades: Too much exposure to both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The 49ers pulled off an unbelievable comeback victory last week in what was one of the most exciting games of the week, but doesn’t this feel like a perfect let down spot? I don’t necessarily think they will lose this game because they are simply the much better team. With that said, it doesn’t feel like a game in which the offense will need to lead the way, and instead, the defense will take control of this game. The Falcons continue to deal with injuries that limit the upside of their offense, and given the tough matchup, it is hard to like their chances this week.
Targets: 49ers defense and Raheem Mostert
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I don’t like to be too simple with my approach, but it is occasionally warranted. Such is the case when the Atlanta Falcons play against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. San Francisco’s head coach was the offensive coordinator in Atlanta for the team’s run to the Super Bowl and, as a result, has unparalleled insight on the strengths and weaknesses of the Falcons’ offense. This immediately knocks out all players from Atlanta.
Targets: Raheem Mostert
Fades: All offensive players from Atlanta
Must-Owns: San Francisco’s defense
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you’ve made it this far into the season, you surely know my feelings about these two teams by now. They both play very strong defense, and anywhere from mediocre to poor offense. No matter who they play, I normally ignore games featuring either of these teams, but now that they find themselves playing each other, I don’t see how I could do anything other than support either defense and fade all offensive players.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not sure how to write the same thing every week without sounding redundant, but I am grateful that I get to tweak it because of the contests in which the recommendations would be used. Because of this, I don’t have to write about how poorly the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense plays on a weekly basis, nor do I worry about the matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The real advantage in Sunday Night Football’s game is in picking offensive players from either team – or both – to be ‘contrarian’ in a Primetime slate. With the Saints playing on Monday night, it is extremely likely that they command the attention of most fantasy owners. The way to differentiate is to look for the offensive talent in Sunday night’s game. Otherwise, use either defense.
Targets: Obviously, both defenses, but if looking for offensive players, then Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Cole Beasley, and Benny Snell, Jr.
Fades: Wide receivers
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Colts may seem like they had a big week last week, but the reality is that is was largely due to Buccaneers’ turnovers, while they still managed to produced an impressive amount of points, the situation is far less ideal. The Saints’ offense is far less likely to produce opportunities for the Colts, and the Saints are likely to rebound from a very tough afternoon against the 49ers last week. The Colts have slowly but surely fallen off this season, and a matchup with this Saints team does not bode well for their chances of salvaging their season.
Targets: Saints defense, Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara
Fades: Colts offense
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As stated in the Sunday Night Football writeup, the fact that the New Orleans Saints play on national television – and at home – means that they will likely feature the highest-owned players. It makes sense, and I won’t make too compelling of a case against it. Instead, I’ll look for some less popular value, like Tre’Quan Smith – who had four targets and a touchdown reception last week – or Tedd Ginn – who saw six targets, last week. Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara make for difficult decision points, as Murray has done more with less. But, if playing a Showdown contest, I find it impossible to not own Taysom Hill.
Targets: Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Tedd Ginn, and Tre’Quan Smith
Fades: Most players from Indianapolis, but it’s hard to not have some exposure
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas