For the past few weeks, we have been writing about the slate size for each week due to byes and, in our most recent column, Thanksgiving games. Finally, for the first time since the end of September, we have a completely full schedule of games from which to choose. And some of them present excellent – if not, entertaining – matchups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 14 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Simply put, if I were an unknown coach looking to make a name for myself, I’d probably design a game plan that relies heavily on the most dynamic player in football. Christian McCaffrey had one of his worst games of the season last week, but I’m expecting a huge workload and a return to the endzone after being shutout last week. The Falcons are a huge mystery right now because almost every player on their team is questionable. The one player who isn’t also is the one I wanted to target the most anyway: Devonta Freeman. His workload last week in his return from injury was solid, and the Panthers have absolutely brutalized by running backs recently, so Freeman should be the focal point for the Falcons this week.
Targets: DJ Moore
Fades: Kyle Allen and whichever Falcons are clearly playing at less than 100 percent
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey and Devonta Freeman
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m actually surprised that the Carolina Panthers fired head coach Ron Rivera, and more amazed that it happened right before a divisional road game. In fairness, the Panthers have no realistic chance at a playoff berth anymore, but the timing seemed odd. If, nothing else, this likely leads to an abundance of touches for Christian McCaffrey as the interim head coach would be wise to lean on the organization’s best player. I am not sure if the game flow will call for it, but I expect quarterback Matt Ryan to have a nice outing mainly because he is coming off a game in which he was sacked a whopping nine times. He’ll get better protection on Sunday.
Targets: Matt Ryan and Christian McCaffrey
Fades: Kyle Allen and Carolina’s wide receivers
Must-Owns: None, but McCaffrey is borderline
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Buffalo is a team that I rarely consider worth targeting, and given how well the Ravens’ defense has been playing – no more than 20 points allowed in a single game since Week 5 – this is not a week they are in consideration. It’s crazy to think the Ravens have the highest scoring offense in the league considering how ineffective they are from a fantasy standpoint. Mark Ingram pops occasionally – if he scores multiple touchdowns in a game – and Mark Andrews is having a great season, but has only exceeded 20 fantasy points once since Week 2. Lamar Jackson continues to be the only trustworthy member of this offense for fantasy purposes, especially in a suboptimal matchup.
Targets: Lamar Jackson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Baltimore Ravens were involved in one of the best games of the week, last Sunday, and they might have the same honor again, this week. But this is largely because Baltimore is playing well on both sides of the ball and can contribute from all angles, making it difficult for the team to be knocked out of any matchup early. The Buffalo Bills’ defense will need to rise to the occasion if it wants to do so, but we should remember that Buffalo’s loss to the Eagles – at home, too – came from a relentless rushing attack by Philadelphia. The Ravens will look to replicate this.
Targets: Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram
Fades: Buffalo’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The return of Andy Dalton produced a win, but not a ton of inspiring offense along the way. Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd remain viable, but in a low-scoring offense their ceilings are limited especially against a solid defense. The Browns are all but out of the playoff hunt now, but one thing they do have to play for is Nick Chubb winning the rushing title this season. He currently has a slight edge, and a matchup against the worst run defense in the league presents a great opportunity for him to rebound from last week’s disappointment.
Targets: Tyler Boyd and Kareem Hunt
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: Nick Chubb
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I often write that I don’t use quarterbacks to decide my against-the-spread picks, but I will absolutely pay attention to them for fantasy purposes. If Andy Dalton is starting again for the Cincinnati Bengals, then I have no problems with using him or Tyler Boyd in any of my lineups. Dalton is trying to showcase himself for next year and has a division matchup that will either require him to throw from behind or set the tone by passing to jump out to a lead. Either way, he’s in-play for me. If he doesn’t start, then I can see the Cleveland Browns’ defense holding down Cincinnati’s offense. And I can’t ignore any running back against the Bengals’ defense.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd
Fades: Baker Mayfield and Cleveland’s wide receivers
Must-Owns: None
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Washington may have pulled off an ‘upset’ last week, but that win was so uncalled for that it got Ron Rivera fired from Carolina. I’m not expecting another, even greater, ‘upset’ this week, as this Packers offense should walk all over the Redskins. The Redskins’ run game impressed last week and does have another good matchup, but with the lack of certainty of touches, it will be hard to fully trust anyone.
Targets: Packers offense and Darius Guice – especially if Adrian Peterson is limited or out
Fades: Dwayne Haskins
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m going to be cautious and respect the fact that the Washington Redskins could play well, yet again. Because of that, I won’t overload my roster with players from the Green Bay Packers. There are enough games on the slate to find options elsewhere. Still, if I have a spot to fill, I won’t shy away from someone from Green Bay.
Targets: Aaron Jones
Fades: Washington’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With Dalvin Cook escaping any significant injury last week, he is-line for a big game this week against a Lions defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in all categories while allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Vikings figure to be playing with a lead which sets up nicely for the run game two be the focus even more than usual. David Blough had an inspiring performance in his debut on Thanksgiving, but is it real, and can he repeat that showing? My gut instinct is “no” to the first question, but “maybe” to the second. Given the likely game script and the fact that the Vikings are allowing the third most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the Lions’ passing game is a mildly intriguing option.
Targets: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison and Stefon Diggs
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I expect most of the people who are assessing the Detroit Lions are focusing on what quarterback David Blough will do in the encore to his solid debut, but I also assume most are pointing to regression. But, what if it doesn’t happen? What if the Lions draw up more plays that leaves wide receivers open down-the-field? If I’m playing multiple lineups, I want to take a chance with Blough. If not, then I’ll be more conservative and turn to Kirk Cousins or Dalvin Cook as the Minnesota Vikings should have no problems moving the football against Detroit.
Targets: David Blough, Kirk Cousins, and Dalvin Cook
Fades: Both defenses, as it isn’t worth the risk
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another tremendous matchup this week for the 49ers who suddenly find themselves in 5th place in the NFC. The Saints have already clinched the division, but they have plenty to play for still. This may be an unpopular opinion, but I think the tough matchup against the 49ers defense actually favors Michael Thomas, because Drew Brees will be forced to lean on his top playmaker who may be his only weapon capable of winning his battles this week. The Saints defense is very hard to run against, so look for the 49ers to be forced into a more pass heavy offense than they normally prefer.
Targets: Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle
Fades: Both teams running backs
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers were playing in Primetime, we would have an ideal setup for being ‘contrarian’ by lowering our exposure to the Saints’ offense. In reality, this will probably happen because of the large slate of games, anyway. Regardless, the 49ers’ defense has done nothing to make us think a sudden drop of production is coming, and it actually forces me away from New Orleans’ offense. I don’t think I’ll go as far as owning anyone from San Francisco, but I’m giving the edge to a 49ers’ defense that is clearly one of the best in the sport.
Targets: Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas
Fades: The rest of New Orleans’ offense
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is an interesting game because both teams have been largely terrible all season, but their offenses have shown an ability to pop in the right matchups. Given that both defenses have their struggles, there are plenty of players worth considering, but given the nature of these two teams, I wouldn’t bet on this game as a primary game stack.
Targets: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Patrick Laird, DeVante Parker, Mark Gesicki, Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Early in the week, there was a ‘questionable’ tag attached to quarterback Sam Darnold, and it gives the impression of a placeholder injury for me. One that will either cause a surprising – or not-so-surprising – inactive for Darnold. I don’t think it happens, but the possibility makes me pause before diving in with him. Really, I’d want to have Ryan Fitzpatrick somewhere in a tournament because of his never-ending volume and the setup of another ‘revenge game’ – which seems to be a weekly occurrence based on how many former teams Fitzpatrick has.
Targets: Ryan Fitzpatrick DeVante Parker, Robby Anderson, and Ty Montgomery
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Almost every single week I support owning players in a Tampa Bay game, no matter who they play, simply because of the way Buccaneers games play out. With that said, if there is a team that can ultimately ruin that game flow, it’s the Colts. The Colts play at one of the slowest paces in the league, and their propensity to run the ball endlessly – especially with Marlon Mack returning – typically limits the upside for their offense as well as their opponents. I won’t be shocked if I miss out on someone in this game, but I’m expecting this game to disappoint so I’ll have very limited exposure, if any.
Targets: Colts defense
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are finally starting to put some wins behind the high-powered offense that shows up to nearly every game, but it will be interesting to see if they can keep both sets of momentum moving forward on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis’ defense has dropped in production over the past few games, so the real key is whether-or-not they revert back to slowing down opponents or willingly enter a back-and-forth high-scoring matchup. I actually want to lean on the latter because it gives nice upside to the Colts’ offense.
Targets: Marlon Mack, Jack Doyle, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Drew Lock earned a win in his NFL debut last week, but outside of Courtland Sutton, this Denver offense continues to look ineffective. Denver games in general have a tendency to disappoint in the scoring department, so this game takes away some of the normal excitement around this Houston matchup. This could be one of the rare games where we see Houston lean on Carlos Hyde given the better matchup on the ground.
Targets: Courtland Sutton and Carlos Hyde
Fades: The rest of the Denver offense and Deshaun Watson
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Maybe the Denver Broncos have found a quarterback in Drew Lock! But probably not. Lock was actually more ‘bad’ than ‘good’ in his debut, and it is advised to not take the final score as an indication of what Lock could do. But, the key is that he will be given the opportunity to start some games, and that leads to upside at a nice price. Really, the Broncos can’t help but feed their running backs, so they remain in-play. I’m mostly curious as to how the Houston Texans respond to their nationally-televised win over the Patriots. They had downfield strikes that delivered against one of the league’s best defense and, at home, there’s no reason to deviate from the gameplan.
Targets: Philip Lindsay and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: The rest of both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The return of Gardiner Minshew may-or-may-not be a good thing for the Jaguars, but either way, he’s got some banged up wide receivers and unfavorable matchup. In fact, the matchup for both offenses dictates a game in which we seem a lot rush attempts as both defenses have struggled against the run. Overall, this game looks like a run heavy affair that produces some points, but not enough to be overly excited about.
Targets: Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette
Fades: Both teams passing attacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m still in disbelief about how the Los Angeles Chargers leave me in disbelief one-week-after-another. But, the same comment always applies before, during, and after their games. That is, the Chargers will compete. Probably in a close game. Probably in a heart-breaker. Whatever the end result, the usual suspects from Los Angeles are an option. I can’t condone the use of too many offensive players from the Jacksonville Jaguars, however. I fully expect that we will see a game in which they thrive at one point, but there have been no signs that it is imminent.
Targets: Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, and Los Angeles’ defense
Fades: Jacksonville’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it doesn’t feel quite right to say, this game is tremendously important as both of these teams are battling to surpass the Steelers for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. There is no reason to look anywhere besides Derrick Henry on this Titans offense as he is the focal point of everything they do. The Raiders’ offense has been terrible recently, scoring just 12 points over their last two games. This is a critical time for a rebound performance, and against a pass tunnel type of defense like the Titans have, I think they stand a chance to redeem themselves this week.
Targets: Derrick Henry, David Carr, Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller
Fades: Titans passing game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I bought into the Tennessee Titans before the season began, but I’ll admit that it wasn’t necessarily because of the offense. If anything, I couldn’t trust that Tennessee would ever have a game in which it scored upwards of thirty points. Now three-quarters into the season, they have done exactly that in three consecutive games. I am concerned that a regression is imminent, but the Oakland Raiders have been so bad on defense that it’s hard to imagine Oakland is the team that stops Tennessee. The other trend that has developed over the last few months is that the Titans no longer suffocate opposing offenses. They have allowed more points to go along with their own improving offense. This gives us yet another chance to go back to the Raiders for some fantasy assets.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite a lackluster showing from the Chiefs’ passing game the past two weeks, this game provides a true clash of the titans with the Chiefs’ offense and the Patriots’ defense. I’m willing to take a chance that the Chiefs’ offense finds their stride this week and is able to make plays, much like we saw with Deshaun Watson and the Texans last week. The Patriots offense had a strong finish to the game last week, but it’s hard to tell if that was them turning a corner or just garbage time production. This week provides a great opportunity to finally get the running game going.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Sony Michel, James White and Julian Edelman
Fades: Patriots defense
Must-Owns: Travis Kelce
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am thrilled that, as a football fan, I get to watch quarterback Patrick Mahomes at full strength for the Kansas City Chiefs against the New England Patriots and a defense that has allowed more than 14 points only twice through twelve games. It’s the ultimate strength against strength battle. In terms of pure numbers, we saw this same game recently when the Cowboys had the league’s top-ranked offense, and New England had little trouble with them. I suspect it will be quite different against the Chiefs, as their offense has been consistently dangerous since the start of Mahomes’ career. I don’t think Kansas City’s offense will be easily under-owned – especially after the Texans scored 28 against New England on national television – but, with a larger slate of options, there’s a chance we can get exposure to the Chiefs offense at a relative discount. As always, I can’t turn away from an offense playing against Kansas City’s defense, especially one led by arguably the greatest quarterback of all time.
Targets: Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, James White, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As I’ve said seemingly every week when discussing a Steelers game, I don’t have much interest in this matchup. The Steelers’ defense has consistently been one of the toughest groups in the league, and against a team like the Cardinals that isn’t exactly elite, it’s not worth taking a significant chance on anyone. The Steelers’ offense has had a few big plays over the past two weeks, but they’ve been most fortunate deep balls that James Washington has hauled in, and not exactly the kind of plays you can count on. This offense doesn’t have a ton of upside still, but given the matchup, they may be worth having some exposure to.
Targets: James Washington and Vance McDonald
Fades: Cardinals offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing the same few sentences about the Pittsburgh Steelers and, not only will I continue to do so, but I don’t see a manner in which it changes. The Steelers aren’t suddenly going to find a quarterback who impresses me, nor is their offense going to be able to show and sustain something that makes us believe in them. But, the defense is truly elite, and that allows Pittsburgh to chip away at an opponent until it can strike. On Sunday, I don’t love the fantasy matchup for the Steelers’ defense, as the Arizona Cardinals rarely turn the ball over – third-fewest in the league – but I also won’t be loading up on Arizona’s offensive players. Because of the matchup with the Cardinals’ defense, I will probably take a chance with one or two players from Pittsburgh for the “strike” I mentioned earlier in this writeup.
Targets: James Washington
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Seahawks have been flying high all season, but I think they have flown a little too close to the sun, and they are due to get burned. Of their 10 wins, 9 of them have come in one-possession games. That is truly remarkable, but it is also nearly impossible to sustain. The Rams seem to found their stride offensively last week, and against this average-at-best Seahawks pass dense, I think Jared Goff can lead the Rams to a crucial victory in their hunt for a playoff spot.
Targets: Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods
Fades: Todd Gurley
Must-Owns: Tyler Higbee
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: On back-to-back weeks, we have the pleasure of watching quarterback Russell Wilson on Primetime. Immediately, the Seattle Seahawks’ offense is in-play. And, if we point to the last time that Seattle went against the Los Angeles Rams, we can highlight one of the most entertaining games of the year that finished with a score of 30-29 – and a missed field goal by the Rams. Pause for a moment and imagine how different Los Angeles would look if the field goal went through the uprights and the rest of the season stayed the same. We’d be talking about an 8-4 Rams team hosting the 9-3 Seahawks. Through that lens, we can see where the value is for Los Angeles. I’ll be building my lineup around the Rams.
Targets: Los Angeles’ defense, Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, and, still, Russell Wilson
Fades: Most of Seattle’s offense
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Eagles, despite their best efforts to fall out of contention, are still involved in the NFC East race. The task of beating the Giants should be an easy one, but if this season has shown me anything, it’s that nothing is easy when it comes to this division. With Eli Manning returning the starting role, it seems like a story book situation where the Giants beat the Eagles for no reason other than to play ‘spoiler’ and keep this division a complete and utter disaster. Manning being under center likely does wonders for Saquon Barkley who is likely to see a lot more work in the passing game like we saw all of last year.
Targets: Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Miles Sanders, and Alshon Jeffery
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of now, reports are that Eli Manning will start at quarterback on Monday Night Football. If you’re looking for the ‘contrarian’ play, you just found it. In fact, stacking Monday night’s game between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles is, in itself, probably the better way to differentiate a lineup from the field, but leaning on New York more than Philadelphia extends such differentiation. In reality, it shouldn’t be that difficult of a sell, as both the Giants and Eagles have been terrible defensively at various parts of the season.
Targets: Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffrey and, if being ‘contrarian,’ then New York’s defense, otherwise, Philadelphia’s defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley