Last week, we continued to knock the main slate of games for having some poor matchups – which was also driven by Primetime having what-appeared-to-be the better games. This week, even with three games played on Thursday, we have a large set of football games worthy of our attention both as fans and fantasy owners.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 13 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jets bring their current hot streak into Cincinnati where the Bengals are turning back over to Andy Dalton. The Ryan Finley experiment clearly did not bring any fruitful returns, so the Bengals will hope the Red Rifle can lock up their first victory of the season. Dalton expressed his disappointment with how his benching took place, and given that he is now seemingly auditioning for his future, you can expect a motivated leader under center. The Jets’ defense looked good last week, but they have largely struggled this season, so I will definitely have shares of the Bengals’ offense. It will also be hard to avoid the Jets’ streaking offense against this Bengals defense that has been one of worst groups in the league all season long.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Le’Veon Bell and Andy Dalton
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Jets are finally showing that there was a reason to believe in them before the season started. At least, somewhat. But, the more important takeaway for our purposes is that they are showing it on offense. Quarterback Sam Darnold has played well over the last few weeks – including grabbing a few fantasy points with his legs – and it has helped open up all of the offensive potential. But, we can’t only look to one side of the game. The Cincinnati Bengals are now in a position where every game is ‘must-win’ in the sense that every loss brings them closer to the embarrassment of an 0-16 season. It’s easy to say that desperation will lead to a better effort, but it has some foundation with the team moving back to quarterback Andy Dalton. He is a viable option both in real life and on a fantasy roster, this weekend.
Targets: Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I can definitely justify a stack from this game
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: On a weekend with a full slate of games, this is a game that I can’t see myself having much exposure to. The Colts’ offense hasn’t been a huge target of mine all season, and with no T.Y. Hilton or Marlon Mack, the offense simply has limited upside. As I’ve said before, the Titans’ offense is clearly improved with Ryan Tannehill, but the focal point is and will continue to be Derrick Henry. He has continued his hot streak, and even though the matchup isn’t ideal, Henry is hard to ignore given his talents and volume.
Targets: Derrick Henry and Jonathon Williams
Fades: Both teams’ passing games
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As a football fan, I see why the Tennessee Titans are so infuriating. But, I give them credit for leaning on one running back heavily and not causing us to debate a split backfield – as the Titans did a few years ago. But, the offense has also clearly surged – relatively speaking – under quarterback Ryan Tannehill. It leads to more opportunities for others to get involved. With that being said, I don’t expect another high-scoring game from the AFC South matchup featuring Tennessee, as the Indianapolis Colts rank 13th in yards-allowed-per-game and 22nd in yards-gained-per-game.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, but only if salary relief is needed
Fades: For the most part, both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Through absolutely no doing of their own, the Eagles are right in the center of a playoff hunt. They have scored a combined 19 points in their last two games, but they have a gift of a matchup against a Dolphins team that has been more or less terrible for the entirety of the season. The Dolphins’ defense ranks near the very bottom of every significant category, so this is a prime bounceback spot for the Eagles. Ryan Fitzpatrick will continue to be busy this week as the Dolphins play from behind.
Targets: All healthy Eagles offensive players and DeVante Parker
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Miles Sanders
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At first glance, I almost went back to my old habit of just groaning when I see the Miami Dolphins in a fantasy football column, but then I remembered that the offense is actually alive. The Dolphins have scored at least 20 points five times in the last six weeks after being held to ten or fewer points in each of their first four games. Think about that disparity. Then think about how it’s happening. Miami is throwing the ball relentlessly as it tries to stay in every game against a better opponent. This is something we always love to target, and there is no reason to shy away from it on Sunday. Granted, the Philadelphia Eagles have been much better defensively compared to their first half of the year, so the Dolphins’ ceiling is relatively low.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: My level of interest in this game will depend on injuries and weather. All things equal, I want to dive in head first with the Packers because they are coming off a terrible game and now have a matchup against a really poor defense. If the Giants’ offense is healthy enough to mildly compete, and the weather holds up, then this will be one of my favorite games to target.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Devante Adams, Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to argue that the Green Bay Packers won’t come out and eviscerate the New York Giants after losing so badly to the 49ers, but I would pump the metaphorical brakes before blindly throwing everyone from Green Bay into a lineup. Indeed, the Packers will score – New York’s defense remains one of the worst in the league – but it might not be an all-out explosion. Green Bay’s offense only ranks 21st in yards-per-game, and weather might play a factor. I won’t shy away from any Packers player, but I won’t build around them, either.
Targets: Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, and Green Bay’s defense
Fades: The rest of both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The insertion of Devlin Hodges into the Steelers lineup is unlikely to do much for their struggling offense. This is a group that has done very little to inspire any confidence, and against a solid Browns defense, I can’t get overly excited. The Browns’ offense had a nice showing last week, but that came against the Dolphins whose defense is nothing even close to that of the Steelers. This Steelers defense has been one of better groups in the league, and with the pressure they can put on opposing quarterbacks, we may see a sloppy game on both sides of the ball.
Targets: Kareem Hunt and both defenses
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I almost always find value in a rematch of two teams that will be played in a short amount of time. When it comes to the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, however, I see value in the same exact places as in the first meeting. That is, we might have an exact replica of Week 11’s game. The Steelers’ defense is still outstanding while the offense is downright pitiful. Cleveland has enough firepower – arguably more than it did in the last meeting – to break through and make some noise, but that’s the extent of offense from this AFC North matchup.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Redskins may have won last week, but this is a team that has not broken the 20 point mark since Week 2. That speaks to an organizational struggle that I cannot overlook. The matchup for the Redskins’ running backs is nice, but the upside is so limited for this team that I cannot invest. The Panthers’ offense has a great shot to continue where they left off last week against a Redskins defense that struggles especially against the run.
Targets: Panthers defense and D.J. Moore
Fades: Redskins offense
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If, nothing else, we can be impressed by the Carolina Panthers’ ability to score points. For fantasy purposes, this is all that we’d want from any team. On Sunday, they have the opportunity to not only score points, but tally extra yards and possessions along-the-way. The Washington Redskins have absolutely no offense – they rank last in the National Football League in yards and points and have not scored 20 points since Week 2 – and are giving opponents the third-best starting field position in the league. Washington has some potential to score on select plays, but it will the Panthers’ offense setting the tone and keeping its metaphorical foot on the gas pedal.
Targets: Kyle Allen, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, and Panthers defense
Fades: All of Washington
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every single Buccaneers game since Week 2 has had at least 50 points scored. That is a streak that is far too long to be a coincidence, or be ignored. Their defense has been absolutely terrible, and for all of Jameis Winston’s poor play, he continues to churn out yards and points no matter what. The matchup is far from ideal for the Buccaneers, but they find a way to produce in every game, so my expectation will be on that trend continuing.
Targets: All offensive players for both teams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: D.J. Chark Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I had a difficult time solving which side of each team was worth believing – the bad that we saw from the Jacksonville Jaguars or the ‘good’ Tampa Bay Buccaneers from last week – but, either way, we do have some strengths and weaknesses of note. The Jaguars simply can’t stop the run. I’m not one who likes to buy into Tampa Bay’s running game, but the matchup is just too one-sided for me to ignore. The Buccaneers continue to give up big plays through-the-air, and they rank second-worst in yards-per-game defensively. Nick Foles and his receiving corps are in-play.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Ronald Jones, Peyton Barber, Nick Foles, and D.J. Chark, Jr.
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is easily the marquee matchup of the week and arguably the season, but does that mean it is a high-end fantasy matchup? I may sound like a hater, but I don’t think I will have much exposure, and it is not just because of my feelings towards the two quarterbacks. The 49ers’ defense may be one of the only defenses that is built to slow down this Ravens offense. If they can force Lamar Jackson to stay in the pocket, they have a chance to control this game. The 49ers’ offense has been playing well lately, but this Ravens defense has only allowed 26 points over the past three weeks, and is not one I want to target.
Targets: None
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s easy to state that the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens will play the best game of the weekend, but I think the more accurate depiction of it is that we will see the “most fascinating” game of the weekend. The 49ers’ defense line has been an immovable object, while the Ravens’ rushing attack – of course, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson – has been an unstoppable force. The two meeting is a gift to football fans. But, not necessarily fantasy football owners. The clear play would be Baltimore’s offense in the expectation of another high-scoring output – after all, no team is hotter, right now. But, I simply can’t expect four consecutive games of at least 40 points from a team that uses so much of the clock by running the ball. It’s clearly possible, and it might be a mistake to not own players from Baltimore on Sunday, but I would only do it to offset risk. And I’d lean more on wide receivers than running backs.
Targets: Jimmy Garoppolo, Tevin Coleman, Emmanuel Sanders, Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Ingram and, if I’m feeling crazy, San Francisco’s defense
Fades: Baltimore’s defense
Must-Owns: None, but it’s probably a necessity to own someone from Baltimore just to even the playing field in terms of ownership
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The streak is now at three games for Jared Goff. That streak, of course, is the number of games he has gone without throwing a touchdown. That is an unsustainable streak for anyone, let alone a player in Goff’s situation with a good coach and a talented offensive group. Luckily for him, he gets a matchup against a Cardinals defense that is allowing the most passing yards per game in the league and the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. A correction is coming, and Goff has the perfect matchup this week to make it happen.
Targets: Rams defense all Rams offensive players
Fades: Cardinals defense
Must-Owns: Jared Goff
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Los Angeles Rams appear on the verge of spiraling out-of-control, and the matchup with the Arizona Cardinals is both the perfect time for a correction and a misstep. The former would happen because the Rams are clearly better than what they showed on Monday Night Football, but the latter is always a risk because of the difference in team records. The key, however, is that Arizona’s defense remains terrible, and it opens the door for Los Angeles’ offense to get back-on-track. This does push the Cardinals’ offense to return to its high-frequency attack, but it’s likely that Arizona would utilize such a tactic even if the Rams don’t score.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jared Goff
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Los Angels Chargers at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are many games this week that have obvious fantasy appeal thanks to poor defenses and/or hot offenses – this is not one of those games. Both of these defenses are playing well, and neither offense is particularly setting the world on fire. There is enough talent – mainly on the Chargers’ offense – that someone from the game could pop, but the game has very low expectations as a whole for me.
Targets: None
Fades: This entire game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The last time the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers met, it was arguably the beginning of the end for Los Angeles. The Chargers were stymied offensively and, including the loss to Denver, fell into a 2-5 skid. It’s arguably too late for a full recovery, but we should see some fight from Los Angeles at it faces a division rival that has question marks everywhere. I won’t be too aggressive with the Chargers’ offense – I’ll probably just stick to someone like Keenan Allen – but their defense is one of the better plays of the weekend.
Targets: Keenan Allen and Los Angeles’ defense
Fades: Everyone from Denver
Must-Owns: None
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Raiders put forth a horrendous effort last week in what was a critical game for their playoff hopes. Now, they will have to forget about that and put forth a much better performance against a much better opponent in the Chiefs, who are also coming off a bye week. The Chiefs did not have their best game before the bye, but with a matchup against this poor Raiders defense, I fully expect to see the Chiefs’ offense we are used to. If the Raiders can reestablish their offense after last week’s debacle, this game has potential to be high-scoring.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller and the entire Chiefs’ offense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but this game definitely will have my attention
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s probably going to read “too easy,” but I’m not sure how the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs don’t put on an offensive show when they meet on Sunday. There might even be a decrease in ownership for some players from Oakland after last week’s disaster against the Jets, but I have no probably looking past that game. Just like the Raiders did. They clearly got caught in the trap of peeking ahead to Week 13’s opponent, and I won’t let that dud erase what-was a .600 winning percentage over their first ten games. Oakland is good and has an outstanding matchup against a terrible Chiefs defense. But, as always, Kansas City’s offense is in-play. And, against the only division team threatening for the AFC West – and returning to action after a bye – the Chiefs will be a well-oiled machine.
Targets: Everyone from both offenses
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but owning someone from this game is a must
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Looking at the Primetime slate, this game is the easy ‘contrarian’ choice to target. The Patriots’ offense has been disappointing and their defense has been dominant. Most people will be scared off this game, but I am finding myself leaning the other way. The Patriots’ offense is unlikely to struggle for an extended period of time, especially if they get healthy, and the dynamic Deshaun Watson may be able to overcome this tough matchup.
Targets: Tom Brady, James White, Julian Edelman, Deshaun Watson, Duke Johnson Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is simply no way that the majority of the people playing in Primetime contests will look at Sunday Night Football as more offensive-driven than Monday night’s game. This read is right, on the surface. But, we can get some nice value from both reality and perception. The “perception” to attack is the new-common argument that New England’s offense is “a liability.” I’m not buying it. The offense has not been great, but the defense is making it a non-issue. We’re approaching December, where the Patriots thrive, and I’m not going to bury a team that can explode at any minute. That’s also where the “reality” comes into play. Houston’s defense ranks 20th in the league in yards-per-game. It isn’t the dominant force we’ve seen in the past.
Targets: Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, James White, DeAndre Hopkins, and New England’s defense
Fades: Deshaun Watson
Must-Owns: I still can’t imagine owning more players from Houston than New England
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of the most important games of the weeks due to the playoff implications. When there is a Primetime of significant importance that features Kirk Cousins, you can guess my stance. Cousins has a history of disappointing when the stage is the brightest, and that’s what I’ll be expecting. The Seahawks’ offense has no easy matchup, but I will always take Russell Wilson over Kirk Cousins in a head-to-head matchup. The emergence of Rashaad Penny last week complicates the Seahawks’ backfield situation, but this matchup favors the passing game anyway which turns our attention back to Russell Wilson.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Seahawks defense, Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett
Fades: Kirk Cousins, Vikings receivers and Seahawks running backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: One of the reasons I want to own a little more offense in Sunday night’s game than most is because I believe I will be on the ‘chalk’ side of Monday Night Football. Through five home games, this year, the Seattle Seahawks have two losses, two one-point victories, and an overtime win. In other words, they haven’t cruised to a victory at home, this year. I don’t expect that to change on Monday – the Minnesota Vikings are 8-3 and coming off a bye week – but I will look for a big day from Seattle’s offense, regardless. Russell Wilson may have fallen behind in the race for the Most Valuable Player award for many, but he remains the central force in Seattle. He’ll also be the central force of my lineups.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen – and, if he’s not healthy, then Stefon Diggs – Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Lockett, and Rashaad Penny – I like the idea of a backup running back in a small slate if there is any opportunity for volume
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: If not using Tom Brady in a Primetime lineup, then Russell Wilson