We have one more week in which byes will play a factor and that, with some of the better games being played on Primetime, sets us up for a relatively ugly slate. This doesn’t mean that it will necessarily be low-scoring, but it probably won’t be pretty, either.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is quite possibly the only game of the week that truly sets up to be high-scoring, and given how obvious it is, I have a hard time saying anything other than, “Go all-in.” Jameis Winston, despite having a terrible real-life season, has been a fantasy gold mine. Since Week 3, he has thrown for at least 300 yards and eclipsed 20 fantasy points in every game but one. This may be an improving Falcons defense, but with Winston throwing the ball 45 or more time with reckless abandon, it’s hard to see the Buccaneers not putting up points this week. Despite all the Falcons’ injuries, they have plenty of firepower left to beat up this Buccaneers defense that has allowed at least 27 points in all but one game this season.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and the Falcons’ defense
Fades: Both teams’ running backs
Must-Owns: Nobody in particular, but basically everyone in the targets section should be owned and stacked together throughout various lineups
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may not win many football games, this year, but they have absolutely not been a problem for fantasy purposes. Despite how well the Atlanta Falcons have played over the last two weeks, I don’t expect Tampa Bay’s offense to disappear. But, I also haven’t seen anything from the Buccaneers’ defense to force me to avoid Atlanta’s offense. The division nature of the matchup leads me to believe that it won’t go exactly according to script, but offense will lead the way for both teams.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I will probably own at least one player from this game
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has one of the lowest over-under totals you’ll see all season and it’s not that hard to understand why. You have two teams with solid defenses and mediocre offenses. It’s not impossible that someone has themselves a good fantasy day in this game, but this is not a game worth attacking heavily.
Targets: Tim Patrick and Devin Singletary
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I still can’t take the Denver Broncos’ offense seriously with Brandon Allen, but I can trust that the running game will be heavily involved. Philip Lindsay has rushed for over 100 yards in exactly one game, this year, but his volume remains high. He’s a risk against the Buffalo Bills, but he’s probably Denver’s best chance at an ‘upset.’ Otherwise, it’s both defenses for me.
Targets: Philip Lindsey and both defense
Fades: Everyone else on offense
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It seems as if Mitch Trubisky is already beyond his “hip injury” and is in-line to start against this suspect Giants defense. I cannot in good faith recommend this offense confidently, but in this matchup, there is some potential for their high volume guys to put forth a good game. The Giants continue to be battered by injuries, and unless Sterling Shepard returns, all targets are likely to be funneled to Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Saquon Barkley. This doesn’t feel like a good matchup for Slayton given his preference for deep throws, so Tate and Barkley may have incredible volume making them worth considering even in a tough matchup.
Targets: Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate, David Montgomery, and Allen Robinson
Fades: Both Quarterbacks
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, it looks like Mitchell Trubisky will be healthy enough to play for the Chicago Bears on Sunday. If he does, he actually has a great matchup against a New York Giants team that is allowing the sixth-most yards-per-game and third-most points-per-game in the league. I wouldn’t go ‘all-in’ on a full game stack, but I have no problem using some offensive players from both teams. As solid as the Bears’ defense has been, the Giants have had two weeks to prepare and do have an immensely talented running back who contributes in the receiving game as well as anybody.
Targets: Whichever Bears quarterback starts, Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson, Tyler Gabriel, and Daniel Jones
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is hard to give a fair early-week read due to all of the questionable tags on important offensive players, but assuming many of them are out as expected, this has the makings of a brutal football game. Even at full strength, this Steelers offense has been poor at best, so missing key players sets them up for more mediocrity. The Bengals offense hasn’t broken 20 points since Week 5 and has only hit that mark twice all season, so it’s hard to be overly excited about them against this good Steelers defense.
Targets: Jaylen Samuels and/or Benny Snell Jr. – if James Conner is out
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: Steelers Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I had quite the internal debate about how I wanted to pick the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals, but the fantasy side of the matchup is as arguably the clearest of any game, this week. The Bengals are absolutely atrocious in stopping the run, and the Steelers can’t possibly ask their quarterback to win a game. If James Conner is out, Jaylen Samuels is my starting running back at any cost. If Conner plays, I will probably take the chance with him – the only risk being re-injury, not production. The other must-play is the Steelers’ defense, which has not allowed more than 350 total yards to an opponent since Week 3.
Targets: Joe Mixon
Fades: Quarterbacks and wide receivers
Must-Owns: Jaylen Samuels and Pittsburgh’s defense
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It will be interesting to see how the Browns’ react after last week’s debacle, but they couldn’t ask for a much better matchup to refocus their winning efforts. Expect Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to lead the way in a game the Browns should be in control of against this Miami defense that has struggled mightily for most of the season. With all of the injuries and suspensions to the Browns’ defense from last week, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that some Dolphins put up decent numbers this week.
Targets: Kalen Ballage, DeVante Parker, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This might be the first time, this year, that I have written about the Miami Dolphins and not wanted to hide. I’m not sure that I will load up on players from Miami, but I also won’t avoid them. If Ryan Fitzpatrick starts under center – it’s not a guarantee due to both potential injury and the chance that the Dolphins make a sudden change of mindset, again – I wouldn’t mind taking a chance with him, as his volume has been quite high. I might even take the same risk with Josh Rosen, although with less confidence. But, pretty much no one is off-limits for the Cleveland Browns. Miami’s defense has improved, but it is not to the point where we have to drop all players from opposing teams.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, and Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has some high-end offensive talent, but the beauty of the matchup is the incredible concentration of volume that you can expect. Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore are dominating touches for the Panthers while the Saints’ offense is dominated by Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. All four are firmly in-play because of their talents, but their volume makes them hard to ignore any given week.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas
Fades: Kyle Allen
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I love the idea that one bad game from the Carolina Panthers has sent everyone into a panic. I’m not sure that it lowers ownership for Christian McCaffrey, but it absolutely puts him on my list of ‘must-plays.’ His price might, again, limit me, but he is the key piece to a team that is still in the playoff hunt and will face a division opponent. I also don’t love the matchup for the New Orleans Saints’ offense, but only if looking to stack. Carolina is now routinely allowing 20 points or more but, even with one of its worst games of the year – offensively and defensively – the Panthers still held Atlanta to fewer than 30 points – given the field position and turnovers, this was a successful endeavor. I won’t avoid the Saints’ offense altogether, but I will be careful with my exposure to it.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey and Michael Thomas
Fades: None, but I wouldn’t go crazy with this game
Must-Owns: None
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is an interesting game for a Raiders team that is right in the mix for a playoff spot. They have an obvious preference to run the ball early and often, but this matchup against the Jets’ league-leading rush defense may force their hands. Expect Derek Carr to be given more responsibility this week as they look to prepare themselves for a clash with the Chiefs next week. The Jets’ offense has amazingly scored 34 points on consecutive games after struggling to score all year. They have another positive matchup this week, so it’s not impossible to think they could have a third straight strong offensive showing.
Targets: Raiders passing games and all relevant players on the Jets
Fades: Josh Jacobs and both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Without reading what he said – I can’t yet, as I am writing my blurb first – I am confident that Luke is going to mention how frustrating it has been to call Robby Anderson’s name for the first few months of the season, only to have him deliver last week, after he was removed from the list of targets. I mention this because that is the biggest problem with the New York Jets, at this point. It is simply frustrating that we haven’t seen their best until now, and it’s dangerous to trust that it will continue without a hiccup. I would have loved to attack the Oakland Raiders’ defense – which had been a glaring weakness – but it has been steadily improving. In addition, the Jets’ offensive line has been terrible, and Oakland’s defense has some value in the opportunity to sack quarterback Sam Darnold. The Jets’ defense is also struggling – with the exception of last week’s game against Washington – so Oakland’s offense is in-play.
Update: Luke didn’t mention Anderson! I’m actually surprised.
Targets: Le’Veon Bell, Raiders offense, Derek Carr, and Tyrell Williams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Looking at this game, there should be no question what my recommendation would be. You have a rested Russell Wilson matching up against the Eagles which means it’s all systems go on the Seahawks’ front. Wilson should be able to pick apart this Eagles defense which make him and his trio of receivers – I’m expecting an uptick in usage for Josh Gordon this week – squarely in-play. With the rash of injuries for the Eagles, Zach Ertz will he leaned on heavily again coming off his two best games of the season.
Targets: Seahawks wide receivers and Zach Ertz
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Russell Wilson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks might be the game of the week. I’m not so sure it will be the ‘fantasy game of the week.’ Seattle would get a boost by playing against a defense that had been terrible, but I think it’s time to start knocking the Eagles. They have allowed a combined 44 points over their last three games. I won’t go as far as starting Philadelphia’s defense – Seattle doesn’t turn the ball over enough, anyway – but I will avoid using the Seahawks’ offense. Carson Wentz is an option for me as he tries to lead his team to a playoff berth in the second half of the season with a division title still within reach.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, and Josh Gordon
Fades: Chris Carson
Must-Owns: Zach Ertz
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Anytime we get a game featuring two bad defenses like this one, our attention is captured. Unfortunately the quarterback dual of Jeff Driskel and Dwayne Haskins combined with the wildly unpredictable volume for the skill position players on both teams make it hard to feel confident in this game at all. There is a good chance that a few big plays are made in this games and that there will be some great value to be had, but identifying that value will be a challenge.
Targets: All offensive players in this game are viable, but none stand out above the rest just yet
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None – but I will almost definitely have exposure to this game
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins present an interesting problem for us. On one hand, the two teams are so bad that we might see a never-ending pillow-fight that features a dozen punts – with two backup quarterbacks starting the game, it’s not impossible. But, the reality is that this is the winnable game for both teams, and neither defense is equipped to stop the opposing offense. The clear edge has to be the Lions in the sense that Washington’s Dwayne Haskins has been so bad that even Detroit’s weak defense can slow him down, but everyone in this game sets up for a boom-or-bust. The Lions’ defense could win a tournament on turnovers alone, but this could also be the game in which Haskins finds everyone on his team open. At the end of the day, I’m leaning more toward offense than defense, and I might create a mini-stack from this otherwise dreadful matchup.
Targets: Kenny Golladay, Jeff Driskel, and Terry McLaurin
Fades: Everyone from Washington
Must-Owns: Lions defense
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is no denying the Titans’ offense has been better with Ryan Tannehill as they’ve managed to hit 20 more points in four consecutive games after achieving that just twice in the first six weeks. With that said, the only trustworthy member of this offense is Derrick Henry. Leonard Fournette should see a much greater workload this week after the Jaguars abandoned the run game last week, so he is back in-play. Finally, in the time Nick Foles has played this season, DJ Chark Jr. has clearly been his ‘go-to’ receiver, so Chark remains a high-end target.
Targets: Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry
Fades: Titans passing game
Must-Owns: DJ Chark, Jr.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we’re focusing on ‘storylines,’ then we have two for this week’s division game between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. The first is that Tennessee will be returning to action after a bye week that followed a huge win against the Chiefs. The second is that Jacksonville looked completely lost with quarterback Nick Foles back in action, and it was a crushing blow to a team that was still clinging to playoff hopes. Both of these set up nicely for a drop in expectations on the side of the Jaguars and it makes their offense playable at a lower price. I do respect the Titans’ defense, however, so I won’t go overboard.
Targets: Nick Foles, Leonard Fournette, D.J. Chark, Jr., and Derrick Henry
Fades: The rest of Tennessee’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite the big names in this game, I find myself not particularly interested in it whatsoever. The Patriots have been struggling lately, and now they are dealing with a slew of injuries which will only make matters tougher. The Cowboys’ offense has been up-and-down throughout the year, but a matchup with this Patriots defense in New England and potentially bad weather doesn’t exactly bode well for them. This game feels like a sloppy, hard-fought game where the offense is led by running games and short throws.
Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, James White and, Julian Edelman
Fades: Everyone else in the game, including the defenses as neither offense turns the ball over a lot
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Unless forced, I can’t fathom using more than one or two players from the same team against the New England Patriots’ defense, right now. But, I can make the case for using exactly one or two on Sunday. New England is 9-1 on the year and has held every single team except one to 14 points or fewer. It’s amazing. But, the Dallas Cowboys quietly have one of the best offenses in the league – in fact, it ranks first in yards-per-game. The fact that it is “quiet” and that it will face an impossibly difficult defense means that we have some overlooked options from Dallas. I’ll take the chance.
Targets: Honestly, I’m considering every offensive player from this game, although not in a full stack
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This Sunday night clash features two of the top seeded teams in the NFC and an incredible amount of questionable tags. The 49ers are likely to be somewhat short-handed again this week, but given the Packers’ defensive struggles recently, primarily against the run, the 49ers should still be able to produce. The run game will again be the focus to start the game, but even with Matt Breida out, this running back group is nearly impossible to get right on a given week. The 49ers’ defense remains one of the top defenses in the league, but they have had some struggles lately against running backs, and if Aaron Rodgers can get the ball in the hands of his dynamic backfield duo, the Packers have a chance to upset the 49ers this week.
Targets: All running backs for both teams
Fades: Both teams passing games, although Aaron Rodgers could put together a good game via his running backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Every week, I write about the Primetime games as a pairing of ones that will form a four-team slate. This week, we probably have the best grouping, to date. Both the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers have played well enough on defense that we have to proceed with some caution, but it will not stop me from using quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I might step away from running back Aaron Jones because of the matchup, but Rodgers loses no value for me.
Targets: Devante Adams and Tevin Coleman
Fades: Aaron Jones
Must-Owns: Aaron Rodgers
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Rams are playing borderline must-win football at this point given the strength of their division, and they will have to be much better this week if they want to take down the Ravens. Luckily for them, they should be back at full strength this week as both Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods should be in the lineup. That gives a huge boost to Jared Goff, but also to Cooper Kupp who has people to draw the defense’s attention away from him now after a couple down weeks. There really isn’t much to say about the Ravens’ offense, it’s all about Lamar Jackson’s ability to run the ball, and until some figures out how to contain him, he, Mark Ingram, and Mark Andrews should continue to be strong fantasy contributors.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews, and Jared Goff
Fades: Ravens wide receivers
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Let’s get right to the important part of the breakdown and find a way to be ‘contrarian.’ It’s easy. Pick against the Baltimore Ravens. I will definitely be using the Los Angeles’ Rams defense in one of my lineups, but I have no problem leaning on Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp. If I were to go a more standard route, with my Primetime lineup, I still think I would lean more on Sunday Night Football than another Ravens explosion.
Targets: Rams defense, Rams wide receivers, Jared Goff, and Mark Ingram II
Fades: Lamar Jackson
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp