We’re about to make some changes.
We love breaking down every game of the main slate – and Primetime – to pinpoint our favorite DFS options, but the former method of writing full narratives for each matchup was counter-intuitive to what we’re trying to accomplish. We want our readers to find what they believe is valuable in a game. So, we’ve revamped our format.
We still use game flow and storylines as a driving force, but we have presented the column in a way that is hopefully easier to digest. And we’ve made it free! For everyone.
In doing so, we also have added another fantasy column to the mix. This new one will focus more on the entire game and give suggestions on where to stack – or avoid stacks – as well as touch on high-scoring and low-scoring possibilities – which, if used correctly, can turn into over-under picks. That column will be for our members only, and can be found here.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is funny how much can change in a year as the Browns have gone from the laughing stock of sports world to many people’s dark horse Super Bowl pick. There is no doubt they have a ton of talent, but there is also a ton for them to prove, and a lot of personalities to overcome. The Titans are far from the ideal first matchup for the new look Browns because of the hard-nosed, slow paced running game they play. I see the Titans keeping this game close and fairly low scoring, but no matter the flow of the game, I’m almost certain that Baker Mayfield will be doing everything he can to show off his new shiny toy in Odell Beckham.
Targets: Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis
Fades: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Marcus Mariota, and Corey Davis
Must-Owns: Odell Beckham Jr. – if he plays
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The perfect game matchup of perception versus reality. If the Titans are going to be good, they have a chance to surprise people on Sunday. And, if the hype is too strong for the Browns – it is – then it’s dangerous to buy in too eagerly.
Targets: Marcus Mariota and maybe Derrick Henry
Fades: Browns offense
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has tremendous potential to be the most boring football game of the entire season. The Dolphins are likely to be nothing short of terrible after trading away some of their last useful players. Some people will point to the savior, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and what he did last season, but that was a wildly different situation. Fitzpatrick had six reliable pass catching options in Tampa Bay. He has roughly zero in Miami. The Baltimore Defense lost some players this offseason, but they have plenty of talent left to handle this offense, and let their run game take care of the rest.
Targets: Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram
Fades: Dolphins’ Offense
Must-Owns: Ravens’ Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If I’m making multiple lineups, I want to own Ryan Fitzpatrick in one. Unless he has one of those games in which he is a complete disaster – and tosses upwards of four interceptions – he should be throwing constantly. Volume is a huge asset. I’d also take a chance with Miami’s defense as I am not convinced of Lamar Jackson piling on points. Then again, I don’t know if there will be enough turnovers to justify the pick.
Targets: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Miami’s defense
Fades: Lamar Jackson
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite plenty of offense in this game, it won’t be one I’m targeting heavily. The Vikings’ defense lost some talent, but should still be stout enough to limit the Falcons scoring. The Falcons’ defense was a mess last season, but that was mainly due to injury, and the group figures to be much stronger this season. The value in this game lies with the running backs with both starters having lost their main competition for touches over the off-season in Tevin Coleman and Latavius Murray.
Targets: Dalvin Cook
Fades: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs
Must-Owns: Devonta Freeman
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Forget fantasy for a minute. I could see the Falcons and Vikings playing the best, most exciting football game of the weekend. Both teams should be better than they were, last year, and the stars – many of whom were injured – will be in a position to shine. I’m expecting both offenses to have nice outputs.
Targets: Offense from both teams
Fades: Probably both defenses, unless you’re going the full ‘contrarian’ route
Must-Owns: Devonta Freeman and probably Adam Thielen
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There isn’t a whole lot to see here. Both teams look to be improved from last season, and they will be counting on growth from their young quarterbacks, but there are not many standout skill players on either side. Both sides have a number of options, but they all seem to be on a fairly even playing field and thus it’s hard to trust volume on any of them. That is besides Le’Veon Bell, whose return to football is one of the most intriguing storylines of the season. He should be fed the ball early and often, and even though his offense isn’t the same as what he had in Pittsburgh, there is no reason to think he won’t be utilized heavily and go back to being one of the most productive backs in the league.
Targets: Le’Veon Bell
Fades: Everyone besides Bell
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Simply put, if the Jets were worried about Le’Veon Bell being ‘in-shape’ or ‘ready to play,’ he would have been on the field during the preseason. That they’re willing to start the year with him in the backfield after not touching the ball tells me the Jets are fully aware of how ready he is and how best to use him. Sam Darnold is actually one of the higher floor players of the weekend. Even if his team proves to be a massive disappointment, he should be throwing.
Targets: Sam Darnold
Fades: Everyone on the Bills
Must-Owns: Le’Veon Bell
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is a unique game on many levels. It features two teams of vastly different skill levels and expectations. Normally when there is an obviously superior team, that makes finding a game flow and specific players to play straightforward. With these two teams that simply isn’t the case. The Eagles have four running backs who have all either been their starting running for a portion of last season, or have potential to be named the starter ahead of Week 1, and they also have six options in the passing game who are all expected to make an impact and be utilized by Carson Wentz. The Redskins have a three-man backfield which makes it hard to like any of them, but only one target in the passing game who can be trusted in Jordan Reed – and this is the case for as long as he is healthy.
Targets: Eagles Defense, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, and Jordan Reed
Fades: Redskins’ Runnings Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of those moments where I throw up my hands in frustration. The element of the division game makes it tricky, as well as the boatload of decent targets without enough studs to capture my attention.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Case Keenum
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Rams have been one of the best teams in football over the past two years, but I’m wary of them to start this season. Losses within their offensive line, Cooper Kupp’s return from his knee injury, the question marks around Todd Gurley’s health and usage as well as the dreaded Super Bowl hangover all leave me wondering how this will start the year off. I like Carolina to pull off a Week 1 upset at home leaning on their fast and shifty playmakers. This is, of course, dependent on the health of Cam Newton which is still a mild concern to this point.
Targets: Carolina’s Defense, Cam Newton, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel
Fades: Rams’ Offense
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is totally an opportunity for an ‘upset’ in Carolina, but how would it happen? Christian McCaffrey would likely be a big part, but I can’t stomach the price tag in Week 1 when there are values everywhere. Cam Newton has to be on our radar, but we haven’t seen him play since his injury. This leads to the Panthers’ defense being one of the sneakiest picks of the weekend.
Targets: Cam Newton and Carolina’s Defense
Fades: Everyone on the Rams
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has one of the highest expected scoring totals, but I’m not fully convinced. The Jaguars’ defense is primed for a bounceback season, and the improved Jaguars’ offense, led by Nick Foles and a healthy Leonard Fournette, should allow the Jaguars to slow the game down and limit the upside of Chiefs high-octane offense to a degree. There will definitely be some scoring, so some exposure is smart on both sides, but I won’t be doing any heavy game stacking on this one. The addition of LeSean McCoy muddies the waters in the Chiefs backfield enough for me to stay away for at least Week 1.
Targets: Travis Kelce, Leonard Fournette and Dede Westbrook
Fades: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams and Nick Foles
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another fantastic opportunity to be ‘contrarian’ in a possible ‘upset.’ I won’t be completely crazy and suggest the Jaguars’ defense, but how can I not love Nick Foles in this spot? Maybe he won’t be the top quarterback of the weekend, but he is in an ideal position against a Chiefs defense that was flat-out terrible, last year. Even if Jacksonville limits Kansas City – I can see it happening – the Jaguars will still need to move the ball offensively.
Targets: Nick Foles and Leonard Fournette
Fades: Everyone on Kansas City, although I can justify using one if salary allows.
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game took a big hit with the surprising retirement of Andrew Luck, but it could still be a close game. The Chargers are notoriously slow starters, and they will be playing without Melvin Gordon. The absence of Gordon will force people to look at the backup running backs, but I tend to think it will be forcing the Chargers to throw the ball that much more. I don’t expect this game to be a very high scoring affair, but the Chargers should have an effective aerial attack that will likely utilize a ton of short, quick passes to effectively move the ball. I’m excited to see Hunter Henry finally get a chance to shine now that he is healthy and the sole threat at tight end.
Targets: Philip Rivers, Kennan Allen, and Eric Ebron
Fades: Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and T.Y. Hilton
Must-Owns: Hunter Henry
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve used basically any platform available to bash Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but I will admit that he has one sneaky element in his favor. Indianapolis knew Brissett would be starting Opening Day for quite some time. It makes me fear what he – and the Colts’ offense – could do a little less. The same could also be said for the Chargers’ running backs without Melvin Gordon, although I can’t imagine taking the chance on only one of them.
Targets: Marlon Mack
Fades: Chargers’ offense
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This was a game that would’ve favored the Seahawks all along, but with the absence of A.J. Green and the addition of Clowney to the Seahawks defense, this has potential to be one of the least competitive games of the week. The Seahawks have the edge in just about every single matchup, and will likely lean on their run game to control the ball and the game. Add their ground game to the ever efficient Russell Wilson, and this game should be pretty well one-sided.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf – depending on news of his health
Fades: Bengals’ Offense
Must-Owns: Seahawks’ Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I know I’m the one who frequently says that “nothing would shock me,” but it would shock me if the Bengals went into Seattle and beat the Seahawks. Still, I can see value from both teams. We have my personal favorite quarterback in Russell Wilson on one side – which means infinity points is a possibility – and the always-popular setup of a bad team that might need to constantly throw to keep pace – hello, Andy Dalton.
Targets: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd, and Chris Carson
Fades: Actually…none
Must-Owns: Someone from this game
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With Ezekiel Elliott signing his new mega-deal, he is expected to play in this game, and as a result, the Giants just lost the one positional matchup that they had a clear edge in – except possibly tight end. The Cowboys are better on both sides of the ball, and are big favorites at home for good reason. I’m a big believer in division battles producing surprising results, but this matchup is pretty lopsided. There is some potential upside for the Giants’ offense still due to the likely increase in passing attempts, but their upside is likely limited in this one.
Targets: Cowboys Defense, Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, Jason Witten, Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram
Fades: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Amari Cooper, and Eli Manning
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep going back to the same thought. How can the Giants be this bad again? The answer? They probably can’t. Not without change, anyway. Which means that we should get a great effort in a division game. And they have Saquon Barkley, who appears to be an option on every single play. On the other side, I’ve never been one to buy into quarterback Dak Prescott fully, but isn’t it possible that he continues to develop and mature as a passer? This might be a nice time to jump in and get a pair of touchdowns with a few hundred yards.
Targets: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley – how could you not?
Fades: All wide receivers, despite me liking Prescott
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The debut of Kyler Murray and Kliff Klingbury’s high-paced offense have people feeling optimistic about the Cardinals moving forward. What I see when I look at this game is a rookie quarterback and playcaller making their NFL debuts with a mediocre cast of skill players and a weak offensive line. I don’t think the Lions are anything special, but I think their defense will take advantage of some mistakes and lead the team to victory. The Lions’ offense is also in good shape against a Cardinals defense that is light on talent, especially due to the absence of both of their starting cornerbacks.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Kerryon Johnson, and Kenny Golladay
Fades: Cardinals’ Offense
Must-Owns: Lions’ Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Fantasy implications might be everywhere in this game, as there’s a chance we see an absolute explosion of points. More realistically, however, the Lions take advantage of a rookie quarterback unlike the same opportunity they had last year. The problem with the game is that neither the Cardinals nor Lions have the players who are both talented and trustworthy right now. Someone like David Johnson fits that mold if Arizona commits to him, but what happens if the team is trailing early? I don’t mind grabbing a player from this game, but I’d either go all-in and shoot for the moon or limit your exposure.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, David Johnson, Christian Kirk, and Kyler Murray – the team might go up-tempo with a high volume of passes
Fades: Probably both defenses
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is admittedly one that I’m not very comfortable with. The Buccaneers play some of the most high-event football in the league due to their poor defense and their volatile offense. This normally puts them at the forefront of fantasy scoring, but I’m not positive that this 49ers team is a great counterpoint to produce fantasy magic. Their offense is still a mystery led by the unproven Jimmy Garoppolo who’s preseason play and injury recovery leave us with more questions than ever. The 49ers’ defense should be improved, especially on the pass rush, and that should lead to less production for the Bucs behind their spotty offensive line. There will surely be some big plays in this game, but I wouldn’t be willing to lean on it heavily.
Targets: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle
Fades: Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, and All Running Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At quick glance, this might actually be the best offensive game of the weekend. I have never been a Jimmy Garoppolo fan – I find every opportunity possible to ‘sell’ him – but he might be in a great position from a fantasy standpoint. The Buccaneers are going to move the ball on offense – with new head coach Bruce Arians – which would force the 49ers to do the same – under offensive-minded head coach Kyle Shannahan.
Targets: Almost all offensive players
Fades: Not surprisingly, both defenses
Must-Owns: Possibly Jameis Winston
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Steelers have been engulfed by off-the-field drama seemingly for 2 straight years now. Now that they are free of most of that, I actually expect them to surprise this year – as well as this week. Their offense still boasts and elite offensive line, a high-end quarterback, a high-end running back and an elite wide receiver. They have more-than-enough talent to surprise the defending champions in Foxborough as they try to start their next championship run with some roster changes and the never aging Tom Brady.
Targets: Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Vance McDonald, James White, Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon
Fades: Sony Michel
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It can’t possibly be a game unless I struggle to figure out which player is going to contribute to the offense. This is generally maddening, but it is made worse on a small slate like a Primetime contest. For the Steelers, we have a little clearer of a path with James Conner leading the way on-the-ground.
Targets: Ben Roethlisberger, James Connor, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Josh Gordon, although I can easily justify either defense in a Showdown contest
Fades: Tom Brady
Must-Owns: None
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If I had to pick one game this whole week to be high-scoring, this one is easily my top choice. The Texans have had a crazy last week, but the simple breakdown of what happened is their offense got noticeably better while their defense got noticeably worse. Add to that the fact they are facing off the loaded offense of the Saints and it’s not hard to see why this game could provide serious fireworks.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Jared Cook
Fades: Texans’ Running Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am rarely kind to the Houston Texans in my picks, but I can absolutely justify the fantasy world’s love for them on Monday night. My big knock on the franchise in the past – not so much lately – is that it put defense before offense. Not anymore. The organization traded away defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and added offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil over the past few weeks. If this isn’t a shift into offense, then I don’t know what is. This is a good thing for both daily fantasy players and the Texans, as it means Houston will be pushing to keep pace with New Orleans’ offense.
Targets: Honestly, in a small slate with these two teams… everyone. Unless you want to go the ‘contrarian’ route – which I will with at least one lineup – and take a defense from here with offense from the Raiders and Broncos.
Fades: If pushed, I might fade either Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara as one might not need to dominate. If Brees has a big day, Kamara might be relegated to yards without touchdowns, and vice versa.
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The final game of Week 1 is far from the most exciting one, but it does have Antonio Brown so there could be some entertainment. At least, we think. The Broncos turn their offense over to newcomer Joe Flacco, and if you’re a long time reader here, you know that means I have next to no interest in this offense. The Raiders offense has added some pieces in Brown and exciting rookie Josh Jacobs. I like them to have somewhat of a bounce back season despite their mediocre defense.
Targets: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Antonio Brown and Phillip Lindsay
Fades: Broncos passing game.
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there had been any excitement for the Oakland Raiders – I know, there wasn’t – it all vanished with the news of Antonio Brown’s suspension. Or benching. Or voluntary absence. I don’t know how best to classify it, but it took away the little that was left for the Raiders’ offense. At the same time, it means that, in a Primetime slate where variance is key, we now have the salary freedom and wide set of options to make a decent lineup. That was, until recent reports stated he will play. I have no idea what to do with him. Neither does Pittsburgh.
Targets: As many offensive players as possible to create variance from the field who will likely go heavy with the Saints and Texans. I personally like Joe Flacco.
Fades: Josh Jacobs – I’m not so sure he has the chance to shine given the wild uncertainty of everything Oakland, right now
Must-Owns: It has to be Antonio Brown, if he’s playing