With the final eight teams now in-play on the same weekend, logic would suggest that we would have clear gameplans for each. Surprisingly, it’s the opposite. Almost every game appears lopsided at first glance, but with the potential of a fight. Either outcome likely results in a different game flow, which puts us in a position of choosing a side following it through to the end. Thankfully, the four-game slate makes such an approach possible.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game kicks off the Divisional round, and it will also kick off a trend I expect to see throughout much of this weekend. The trend I am referring to is that the home teams should win fairly handedly due to the fact that they are simply the superior teams and they have had the the extra time to rest and recover. This is especially true of this game where the Vikings are going from a Sunday game to the early Saturday game the following week while the 49ers will have had two weeks to rest, and seemingly they have their defense at nearly fully strength for the first time in a while. Kirk Cousins had a good overtime last week, but outside of that wasn’t asked to do very much. I expect the 49ers to take a lead in this game and force the game into Cousins’ hands. I’m not going to overreact to last week, but instead I will rely on years of history showing that the biggest moments have essentially always been too big for Cousins. This game doesn’t have the highest fantasy appeal because I expect the 49ers to shut down the Vikings, and their offense simply can’t be relied on for heavy volume to any individual. Even Raheem Mostert’s impressive touchdown streak has him averaging 18 fantasy points over the six games, which is solid, but unspectacular.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Raheem Mostert, and George Kittle
Fades: Vikings passing game
Must-Owns: 49ers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are, essentially, two likely outcomes for the game between the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings. The first is that San Francisco simply cruises to victory against a Vikings team that has shown the propensity to crumble in big spots – think back to their home game against the Packers that sealed the fate of the division. The other is that Minnesota competes – or wins – against a 49ers team that has some offensive flaws. Unfortunately, there are no unified scripts that work for both outcomes except for the 49ers’ rushing attack. Even that has its problems, as San Francisco has leaned on Raheem Mostert, but also gives touches to Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. This is actually where we could find some value. If the running game will be present throughout, then we can get exposure to it from one of the lower-priced options. For Minnesota, the path to a victory likely comes from its defense. San Francisco isn’t necessarily turnover-happy, but leaning on the Vikings puts their defense in-play. Otherwise, it’s the Dalvin Cook show from Minnesota.
Targets: George Kittle, all running backs, and the Vikings’ defense
Fades: Kirk Cousins and wide receivers
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The only chance that Tennessee has to win this game is if they are able to establish Derrick Henry early and play this game with a lead, forcing Lamar Jackson to beat them through the air. Unfortunately for the Titans, there are two major problems that stand in the way of that happening. The first problem is that the Ravens’ defense has been absolutely dominant lately as they have not surrendered more than 21 points since Week 5. Yes, the Titans just beat a good Patriots defense, but they didn’t have to do so with great offense, which brings me to the second problem. The Ravens’ offense, led by their unstoppable running game, has been obliterating defenses all season long. The Titans’ defense is far from elite and figures to have a hard time slowing down this run game whether Mark Ingram is healthy and active or not. I’m expecting the Ravens to do what they’ve done all season to inferior teams: jump out to an early lead and smother their opponents by running the ball and playing good defense.
Targets: Derrick Henry – but if they fall behind too early, he could lose touches – Ravens defense, Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Hayden Hurst
Fades: Titans passing game and injured Ravens players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Much like the game between the 49ers and Vikings, the matchup of the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens has two distinct outcomes that don’t necessarily overlap. Thankfully, for the sake of our fantasy rosters, we know that Tennessee is going to feed running back Derrick Henry relentlessly. How do we know this? Because, in a prior matchup against the league’s best defense, the Titans fed Derrick Henry relentlessly. They don’t hide what they want to do, and Henry – to his extreme credit – is still able to perform. It’s amazing, really. Of course, the Ravens will have a similar approach of ‘what-you-see-is-what-you-get’ as the team will take to the ground with multiple running backs and its quarterback,. There is, however, a hesitation in that Mark Ingram is injured – and currently expected to play – while Lamar Jackson is insanely high-priced. I’d probably lean more on a wide receiver from this game, especially Tennessee’s A.J. Brown who hauled in just one pass in last week’s Wild Card game.
Targets: Derrick Henry – albeit, with caution – and pass-catchers from both teams
Fades: Both defenses and Lamar Jackson
Must-Owns: A.J. Brown
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has all the feelings of a Kansas City blowout. For starters, this Kansas City offense is as elite as it get, and for all of Andy Reid’s playoff struggles, he is also known to be unbeatable coming off a bye week. Given the matchup against the worst remaining defense in the playoffs, I expect Reid and Patrick Mahomes to lead an onslaught that the Texans’ defense simply won’t be able to handle. The Texans beat the Chiefs back in Week 6, but that was a different Chiefs team then. The offense is fully healthy now, the defense has completely turned itself around as it allowed just 11.5 points per game over their final six games of the season. Deshaun Watson and his otherworldly play-making ability have carries the Texans thus far, but they simply have not been playing their best, and Bill O’Brien doesn’t do enough to inspire me to think they will turn this around before this huge matchup. I do think that Watson is capable of producing points as his team falls behind, so there is plenty of fantasy appeal in this game on both sides.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, Duke Johnson Jr., Darren Fells (if Jordan Akins is out again), Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Damien Williams
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m always hesitant to call for a high-scoring game just because two teams can put up numbers, but it’s hard to think that defense will prevail in Sunday’s matchup between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. Houston’s defense is far worse than it has been in recent years, while the Chiefs’ entire team appears to be coming together at the right time. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is healthy, but has not yet exploded in a game like we saw so frequently last year – at least, not often. I’m most curious to see how he performs and if the Chiefs win on his arm. If so, Kansas City could be playing the role of the ‘sleeping bear.’ I’ll lean on the passing game – including the wide receivers and tight end Travis Kelce – and probably look for savings in other matchups. The same is true for Houston, however, as the Texans’ most realistic chance to remain competitive – or even pull off the ‘upset’ – would be via Deshaun Watson. His legs give him a nice fantasy boost – we saw it in the Wild Card Round as he recorded a rushing touchdown and two-point conversion on back-to-back plays – while he will likely be forced to throw throughout the game.
Targets: All members of both teams’ passing games
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is the only game of the weekend that I’m not going to be heavily skewed towards the home team. I’m not sure who wins this game, but with these two quarterbacks, and two beatable defenses, I don’t see how this game isn’t a one score game that goes down to the wire. It’s hard to say confidently whether this game will feature tons of scoring because neither offense has been at its best lately, but it’s hard to imagine that Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers don’t combine for an exciting game. One of the key factors is the chilly Green Bay winter weather. This game is far and away the coldest one we will see all weekend, and it could have an impact on the game. The impact I’m expecting is that both teams will try to feature the ground attack as defenders may have a hard time tackling in this weather. It also helps that both defenses rank in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Overall, there should be scoring in this game and I am confident that it comes down to the last possession, but given the way these teams have been playing – despite their impressive records – and the frigid weather, I’m not expecting this to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, even if it is the most exciting one.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Aaron Rodgers, and Devante Adams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Marshawn Lynch and Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In keeping with the theme of the Seattle Seahawks’ 2019 season, we can expect them to play well on the road, but not score an extremely high amount of points. Now through nine road games – including the postseason – Seattle is a ridiculous 8-1, but has scored 17 points or fewer in three-of-its-last-four. On the other side of the game, the Green Bay Packers have allowed no more than 15 points in four-of-their-last-five games. Granted, the opposing offenses were worse than that of Seattle’s, but the key is that the Packers’ defense is good enough to slow down the Seahawks. And I’m not entirely sure the opposite matchup – Seattle’s defense against Green Bay’s offense is true. At least, not without the help of some extremely cold weather – which is currently in the forecast. I don’t like basing my fantasy picks on the weather, but it has to be considered for a Seahawks team that, while winning, isn’t scoring as much on the road as at home. Regardless, I will almost never count out either Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but I won’t go overboard with pass-catchers from either team – the exception being Davante Adams of Green Bay, who basically guarantees double-digit targets by stepping on the field.
Targets: Both teams’ running backs and defenses – although more for the low-scoring element than turnover potential
Fades: DK Metcalf
Must-Owns: Davante Adams