Last week was characterized by the inability to lean on specific offenses for a stack, and the fact that all four games ended up on the lower-scoring end of the scale only proved the point. This week, we can turn to some of the more trusted offensive players, most likely because half of the teams – by virtue of the bye week – have yet to take the field in this postseason. For these teams, no one can be skewed by what they saw in the Wild Card Round and, instead, we can look to a season’s worth of data.
Based on our expected Divisional Round DFS game flow analysis published earlier, we can carry our thoughts into actual lineup positions. The long list of players that fit the requirements set forth by the projected flow of the game was cut dramatically by the requirements set forth by salaries.
Below are Sporfolio’s DFS Divisional Round Plays:
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes – We never mind using Patrick Mahomes as our fantasy quarterback for a given week, but he has arguably the best setup of any option for the Divisional Round. All potential fantasy owners will notice the obscene price tag of Lamar Jackson and, while some will certainly pay up for him, the fact that Mahomes is actually a discount compared to Jackson makes him enticing. And, of course, Mahomes could easily be the top passer of the eight in-play. He also has a great matchup against a Houston Texans team that allowed the fifth-most total yards, fourth-most passing yards, and sixth-most passing touchdowns. The return of J.J. Watt for the Texans definitely helps stabilize some of the numbers, but it might not matter. Mahomes has the weapons, talent, rest, and head coach who thrives with additional time to prepare. His salary should have been closer to Jackson’s. Take advantage that it’s not.
Deshaun Watson – By now, it’s clear that the Texans and Chiefs game is one of our favorite targets of the week. The arguments for the Chiefs are obvious, and it doesn’t take much digging to see why Deshaun Watson is in play as well. A big part of the appeal of Watson is the game flow that we are expecting which figures to have the Texans playing from behind. We had discussed the improvements of the Chiefs defense, but Watson has shown time-and-time again that he is capable of thriving in any matchup. The game script sets up the Texans to be leaning heavily on Watson as they try to keep up with the Chiefs’ scoring, and Watson’s abilities to make plays through the air and with his legs make him an easy target – especially considering his price in relation to the other top quarterbacks.