Much like last week, we have a set of games with lopsided odds. This leads to opportunities on both sides of the metaphorical coin. Enough people will look for the ‘contrarian’ play between the AFC and NFC Championship Games – we always do, too – that actually playing some from the favorites might be just as valuable. In other words, we should see a comparatively nice balance between the four teams, despite the overall perception of each matchup.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Conference Championship NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With only two games this weekend, you somewhat have to take a stand and choose one game to lean heavily on when making your lineups. When looking at these two games, it is almost impossible to not want to favor this game. Anytime the Chiefs take the field, you are probably safe to expect plenty of scoring, and against this mediocre Titans defense that is as true as ever. Now you may be thinking, “the Titans defense has looked good these playoffs”, and while that may be true, do not be fooled. They looked good against a Patriots offense that was mediocre all season, and they looked good against the Ravens because they got a lead and forced them to play a style that they haven’t had to play all season long. That won’t happen this week, as the Chiefs’ offense works in any game script, and Patrick Mahomes has mainly been too good to stop. That was especially true in Week 10 – which happened to be his first game back from injury – he passed for 446 yards and three touchdowns. It is hard to see a world in which the Chiefs don’t score at will, but it is also hard to see a world in which this Titans team doesn’t compete. That means they are going to have to keep up on a high-paced game. The biggest question to ask is will falling behind keep the Titans from being able to hand the ball to Derrick Henry 30 times like they want to. I won’t go as far as to say Henry is a “fade”, but I think the game script will force a reduced workload, enough where he isnt the focal point of the game.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Jonnu Smith, Damien Williams, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: A.J. Brown and Patrick Mahomes
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Where else can I start writing about the Tennessee Titans besides running back Derrick Henry? He’s the first person on every list to either play or completely exclude. The benefits to either are blatantly obvious. If he fails, he could cripple a team on a small slate. But, how likely is he to fail? He’s been so unstoppable that it’s almost impossible to envision him contributing a dud to a lineup. More importantly, even if the Titans are trailing by a large number of points right away, I still expect Henry to get his touches. Despite me wanting to use someone else and capitalize on his popularity, I currently can’t see a lineup without Henry in it. I have also been preaching about wide receiver A.J. Brown for each of the last two playoff games, and nothing changes in that department. The Kansas City Chiefs are far better against the pass than run, but Brown has largely been quiet because the run game has been so effective. I’m not so sure that continues on Sunday. Of course, on the other side of the game, we were reminded just-how-dangerous Kansas City’s offense can be. I can’t possibly buy into tight end Travis Kelce after last week’s performance, but I also might pay up for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. At the end of the day, anyone from the Chiefs’ offense is a viable option.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs wide receivers, Ryan Tannehill, and Derrick Henry
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: A.J. Brown
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Week 12 matchup between these two teams is making it hard for most people to see the Packers competing, and considering they did lose that game by 29 points, it’s not totally unfair. With that said, quarterback play is almost unquestionably the most important aspect of any playoff game – we’ve already seen a bunch won by the team whose quarterback was able to make more plays. While the 49ers have the advantage at almost every position, they don’t have the advantage at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is going to have to be at his best, and the Packers’ defense is going to have to put pressure on Jimmy Garappolo and force him to make plays – which he did not have to do at all last week. With the Packers’ defense playing well lately – they have allowed a maximum of 23 points in a game since that Week 12 matchup with the 49ers – I think they will be able to make life hard on Garappolo. With that, I think the Packers can play their game, and whether they win or not, they will make this a competitive game that comes down to the wire.
Targets: Packers defense, Aaron Jones, and George Kittle
Fades: Both quarterbacks and Tevin Coleman
Must-Owns: Davante Adams and Raheem Mostert
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there’s one thing that’s undeniable, it’s that the San Francisco 49ers want to run the football. But, it can’t be that easy. Because the 49ers also utilize multiple running backs in their attack. Last week, I was buying into Tevin Coleman for his pass-catching skill set and, while he did turn out to be the best selection of the group, it was simply because he had more carries than any other running back from San Francisco. Particularly, he had the goalline rush attempts that turned into touchdowns. This isn’t a good thing. It muddies the waters of an already murky backfield because, as much as it would make sense for the 49ers to now turn to Raheem Mostert as the player who helped carry them in the second-half of the year, why would they turn away from Tevin Coleman as the player who helped carry them in the Divisional Round of the playoffs? Because there are only two games on the slate, I might go as far as using both running backs in the same lineup, but I don’t love the idea. I just like it more than deciding between the two. And Matt Breida – who would be a ‘contrarian’ play in his own right. For the Green Bay Packers, there is no use overthinking the approach. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams are the keys for the offense regardless of game flow or expectations. The only added options would be the Packers’ defense – if expecting Green Bay to win – and Jimmy Graham – to provide a different lineup than those who will use George Kittle or Travis Kelce.
Targets: Raheem Mostert, Emmanuel Sanders, Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Graham, and Green Bay’s defense
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco’s defense
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones and Davante Adams