The first weekend of the 2018-2019 NFL playoffs are here, and we have a surprisingly consistent set of projected outcomes. That is, with so many teams in action being driven by their defenses – as compared to next week’s games which feature the offenses of the Chiefs, Saints, Rams, and Patriots – we might not have too many offensive explosions. At least, not on paper. But, with the season on-the-line, it’s likely that we see the best each team has to offer, and it leads to some excellent value for our fantasy rosters.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Wild Card Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take: Of all four games on Wild Card Weekend, this one is by far the most likely to be high-scoring. This sentiment is made easier when you consider how well Andrew Luck is playing, and his history of playing against the Texans. In two games this year against his divisional foe, Luck has thrown 103 passes for 863 yards and 6 touchdowns. If his offensive line can continue protecting him the way they have this season, Luck should be able to pick apart this Texans secondary in Houston. If T.Y. Hilton is healthy enough to trust, he is a near must-start as he also loves playing the Texans – he has 314 receiving yards in those two matchups this year. With so much love for Luck this week, it’s also worth considering Eric Ebron, Dontrelle Inman, and possibly Nyheim Hines. DeAndre Hopkins finished the season on a tear with three straight 100-yard games, and in a playoff setting, it’s all but a guarantee that Deshaun Watson will force feed his number one target even more than usual. Keke Coutee seems to be on track to return this week and it would be a very welcomed sight for the Texans whose wide receiver group has been devastated all season with injuries. Coutee could be a worthwhile flier if healthy enough to play as he will likely see a ton of volume as the number two option in the passing game. Deshaun Watson is also an easy target given the likely game flow of this one, and the renewed willingness to run the ball that we saw last week. The extra work on the ground makes it easy to trust Watson for a safe fantasy floor.
Mario’s DFS Take: As much as I love the Indianapolis Colts as a team built for a deep playoff run, I am a little hesitant to jump in with full-force. The Texans are not pushovers, and their defense does a great job at limiting points. But, Indianapolis will need to score to win and, outside of the obvious play of quarterback Andrew Luck, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is a critical piece of the offense. He is, as usual, nursing an injury, but the expectation is that he will play. When he does, he generally performs. This has especially been the case against the Texans, where he tallied two 100-yard games against them, this year. The running game has also been vital to Indianapolis’ playoff appearance, and Marlon Mack has emerged as the lead back for the Colts. He has had at least 25 carries in two-of-the-last-three games, and turned them into 100-yard days each time. In fact, if we go back to the only prior time in which he had 25 rushing attempts, it produced 132 more yards on the ground. The matchup against Houston’s run defense is terrible but, if you’re looking for the Colts to advance to the Divisional Round, Mack will probably have to be involved. On the other side of the game, I can’t see Indianapolis’ defense – which is as good as the numbers suggest – holding down quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a must-win game. Both have to be considered and can be used if salary allows.