Based on our expectations and the teams we knew would be waiting to host games in the Divisional Round, we were well aware that this week’s set of games would be far more appealing to the fantasy football community than what we saw in Wild Card Weekend. With the amount of star-power we have in front of us, these games won’t disappoint from a fantasy perspective.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take: This matchup has to be one of the best we could have asked for in the entire playoffs. It has the highest expected point total, will undoubtedly be the most popular game across all fantasy competitions, and it is extremely easy to understand why that’s the case. The red hot Colts led by Andrew Luck head into Kansas City to face off with the seemingly unstoppable Chiefs offense. There is a narrative out there about the Chiefs’, and Andy Reid’s, playoff history, and that may be causing some concern about how this team will fare. While I am a big fan of narratives, I find it much more more appropriate to trust an entire year’s worth of data on this team as opposed to undermining them because of Andy Reid’s playoff history with completely different lineups than this one. I’m willing to trust a 16-game sample size from this lineup in which they scored at least 26 points in every single game, and reached 30 or more points in 12 of those games. The Colts’ defense has been better than expected, but it will be the shock of the playoffs for me if they are able to slow down the Chiefs coming off a bye week. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are all top plays, and it’s hard to not like what Damien Williams has done with his increased role. Williams may be impacted if Spencer Ware returns this week, so be sure to monitor that situation. Also pay attention to Sammy Watkins; if he is unable to return after a lengthy absence, there is easy appeal in the other complimentary receiving options for the Chiefs. Marlon Mack stole the show for the Colts last week, but I’m not expecting that to happen again. His workload was largely due to the utter domination the Colts had throughout the game, but that won’t be the case this week. I’m expecting the Chiefs to jump out to an early lead which will put the Colts in the more familiar position of leaning on Andrew Luck. I’m expecting a busy day for Luck which makes him, T.Y. Hilton, Dontrelle Inman, and Eric Ebron easy choices to plug into your lineups. Nyheim Hines really burned me last week with his 0 points, but I may he willing to roll the dice again this week. The setup for this game is far better for him, and if you look at his workload throughout the year, it becomes clear that last week was an anomaly. The Chiefs have been burned constantly all season long by pass-catching backs, which is a big part of why they rank 31st at allowing fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Mario’s DFS Take: It’s not going to take any deep look to conclude that the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs should have big fantasy performances on Sunday. After all, both offenses are outstanding – led by two quarterbacks who are frequently asked to throw – and passing will eventually be a necessity in nearly every playoff game. Thankfully for us, there is no denying that the Chiefs absolutely must score to win, as they can’t rely on their defense to hold a lead. Not surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes should be an easy add for any lineup, with the usual supporting cast of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce right behind him. I will probably not buy into the running game for Kansas City, as the health of more options splits the workload too much for my liking. That, and the weak nature of the Chiefs’ defense might cause the team to keep throwing instead of running out the clock with a lead. Undoubtedly, if Mahomes is throwing, then Andrew Luck will be doing the same. Marlon Mack continues to deliver as the lead running back, but I worry that the Colts might need to abandon the run game if Kansas City starts to separate itself. Nyheim Hines is a nice option because of pass-catching ability, but he is a risk because of Mack’s presence. Like Mahomes, Luck has his pairing of wide receiver and tight end via T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, and both are excellent plays on Saturday.