As mentioned in our weekly picks column, there is a handful of games with extremely large spreads. Whenever this happens, we can usually pinpoint an expected gameflow, as the underdog will likely be trailing for most of the game and need to throw in order to compete, while the favorite will be running out the clock late. That is, of course, if we buy into the games going exactly according to plan. The good news is that, wherever an ‘upset’ is possible, we can expect the underdog to lean on its strengths which, five weeks into the season, are becoming clearer week-after-week.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: Decisions about the Dolphins and Falcons are hard to make at this point with so many key players being questionable. Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Devante Parker are all in danger of missing this game which makes it difficult to gauge who to trust. As of now, Jarvis Landry and Devonta Freeman figure to benefit the most. The Falcons should have no problem building a lead and hanging on on the back of Freeman. With guys around him beat up, and him possessing fresh legs thanks to a bye week, Freeman should be in line for a heavy workload which makes him one of the top options at his position. Landry is always worth considering because of his target share, but if Parker were to be absent from this game or limited, Landry would see even more looks. The game flow and volume could lead to a productive outing for the talented receiver.
Mario’s DFS Take: Usually, when presented with a matchup that will likely produce a one-sided outcome, we can buy into the game flow, as well. After all, a team that establishes a large lead will probably run the ball later in the game to milk the clock. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the lone impressive unit for Miami is its run defense, as it ranks in the top-five for yards, touchdowns, and yards-per-rush allowed. This limits the upside for the Falcons’ skill position players as, even with a positive matchup through-the-air, they will eventually stop throwing if they have gained a large enough lead. This does allow Matt Ryan to be considered, however, as said lead will probably need to come via the passing game. Miami’s offense is the worst in the league, both in yards and points, and the Falcons’ defense is a top play at home. If targeting an offensive player from Miami, we can turn to Jarvis Landry in a game where throwing often will be imminent for the Dolphins.
Please register or login to read the rest of the article.