Week 3 was the perfect example as to why we use our picks against-the-spread as a major factor in determining the expected game flow for each matchup. Nearly every popular player struggled mightily for the majority of lineups, but our plays actually produced nicely, as we leaned on a few heavy underdogs performing well – we were basically all-in on Cincinnati’s A.J. Green and Washington’s Chris Thompson. In Week 4, however, we are left with a handful of matchups that are either split down-the-middle or are severely one-sided. Thankfully, separating the games into these categories also helps us know which to target and which to avoid.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: One of the best, but quietest performances of Week 3 was delivered by Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills played host to a Denver defense that has been tough to beat early on, this season. Taylor played a solid, well-rounded game and led his team to victory. The Bills’ defense performed as expected, limiting the Denver offense to just 16 points. This week, the Bills are up against a much tougher offense, but their defense has been solid enough to be hesitant in rostering too many Falcons players. Julio Jones suffered a minor issue which will be worth tracking. Should he be unable to suit up, other cheaper options at wide receiver, such as Mohamed Sanu or Taylor Gabriel, may become decent value plays. While Tyrod Taylor, himself, is not someone that often crosses our minds, this may be a decent week to take the plunge. Taylor has shown a lot of growth and maturity thus far this season, and has a good matchup this week and possibly a favorable game flow. While the Falcons’ offense may be slowed a bit, they possess enough talent to always put points which should lead to heavier lifting for Taylor. This may be a good week to finally bring former Eagles receiver Jordan Mathews into the fantasy realm. Mathews has been used minimally so far, but that should start to change this week. Taylor has only thrown up to 28 passes in a single game this season, but quarterbacks always seem to throw more when playing the Falcons. Mathews had a solid game against the Broncos and could easily build on that momentum. His price tag has plummeted to $3,900 which, for someone with his skill level, could be a huge steal.
Mario’s DFS Take: The large spread between the Bills and Falcons can lead to a number of expected outcomes – despite what many claim, the spread is not an indication of what should happen – but one, in particular, is about as obvious as any. That is, the Bills will move the football. They will have to if they want any chance to keep up with an Atlanta team full of playmakers and seeking a 4-0 start to the season before it heads into a bye week. This slides Tyrod Taylor into a nice, sneaky position. The dual-threat quarterback will eventually be forced into passing situations, and Atlanta has been incredibly forgiving to opposing offenses in ‘garbage time.’ Of course, this scenario would come to fruition on the heels of the Falcons’ offense, where Matt Ryan and Julio Jones – if healthy – will likely aim to jump out to a big lead against a Bills defense that has played well, but faced relatively weak competition – the Panthers and Jets rank 29th and 27th in the league in yards, while the Broncos sit 11th thanks to an uncharacteristic explosion against the Cowboys. Buffalo’s defense will face its toughest task, yet and, even if it slows down Atlanta, it won’t stop it.
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