Among many things, Thanksgiving is known for football. What used to be two afternoon games has now morphed into a three-game slate. One that we can watch throughout the day of eating, relaxing, and spending time with family and friends. Of course, we can now form daily fantasy football lineups to help spark some conversations.
We will still provide our analysis of the remainder of the week in the coming days – and give specific picks prior to Sunday’s action – but we added this intermediate piece to break down the three games that will be played throughout Thursday. Happy Thanksgiving and thank you for being a part of our website!
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 12 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take: The matchup between Minnesota and Detroit is, without a doubt, the toughest of Thursday’s three games to project scoring and game flow. It is, after all, the perfect example of strength against strength. The tough Minnesota defense is battling the dynamic offense of the Lions while the opposite side of the ball presents relative weaknesses. The dilemma is that each cancels out another. One will break through, and we need to decide if the game results in a low-scoring affair or a shootout. While far from a guarantee, there is actually a high likelihood that the Lions set out to prove that their win against the Vikings a few weeks ago was legitimate by jumping out to an early lead. For this to happen, it would need to run through Matthew Stafford. In a slate that also includes Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins all in favorable matchups, it is easy to ignore Stafford. We shouldn’t. His upside is always high due to the sheer volume of passes he has in a given game, and he is an excellent ‘sleeper’ if the Lions do, indeed, breakout. Looking for players to pair with Stafford, Golden Tate and Eric Ebron jump off the page, as they are both key pieces for the Lions’ offense. Theo Riddick is used heavily as a receiver, but there are so many running backs available on Thursday that it might not be worth it to force him into your lineup. Marvin Jones is also in play, but he will likely draw the attention of defensive back Xavier Rhodes, so it might be best to stay away. It is hard to trust any of the running backs from Minnesota, so the top targets should come from the passing game. Quarterback Sam Bradford, himself, is simply not worth the effort with the other quarterbacks available, but Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph both make for decent picks with Stefon Diggs less than 100 percent – and possibly out for the game. Outside of Diggs, Thielen and Rudolph are the only two consistent targets that Bradford has utilized and, in a favorable matchup, both guys provide nice upside at fairly cheap prices.
Mario’s DFS Take: The battle for a temporary lead in the NFC North was one of the most difficult games for me to pick, but it ultimately boiled down to one team breaking out. At first glance, the Vikings’ defense and offense both suggested that we might be in store for a low-scoring affair – as Minnesota so rarely moves the football that it should hardly threaten Detroit’s defense – but the Lions have been plagued by slow starts and the necessity of late comebacks throughout the season. In an effort to shed its reputation, Detroit will likely be more aggressive than usual on national television – the first nationally-televised Lions game, all year. The Vikings are relatively weak against opponents’ rushing attacks and, while Detroit hardly runs the ball, the Lions heavily feature running backs in their passing game. Theo Riddick is currently averaging the third-most targets-per-game in the league among running backs, and is the ideal play on Thursday afternoon. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are worth considering, as well, but Riddick – assuming he is healthy – best fits the gameplan Detroit will utilize. Eric Ebron has also been a favorite of Stafford, of late, with 23 targets over his last three games, including a rushing touchdown. For his price, the best player from Minnesota might be Adam Thielen, as his target totals have remained decent – in an offense that rarely throws the ball – and he has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games.
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