Welcome to the Monday edition of the daily fantasy hockey morning coffee. I’m writing this as trades swirl around the NHL and things seem to be changing by the hour on what exactly rosters will look like. Just yesterday we saw the Boston Bruins acquire Rick Nash from the Rangers ans sign Brian Gionta. The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Tomas Plekanec and I’m sure we’ll see many other minor deals made throughout the day leading up to today’s trade deadline. I always caution readers to double check line combos prior to locking in their lineups … but triple check that tonight as players and lines will certainly change.
Tonight’s Slate
Washington Capitals @ Columbus Blue Jackets (Columbs, -130, 5.5 over/under)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning (Tampa Bay, -175, 6 over/under)
Philadelphia Flyers @ Montreal Canadiens (Philadelphia, -135, 5.5 over/under)
Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Rockies (Colorado, -175, 6 over/under)
Vegas Golden Knights @ Los Angeles Kings (even, 5.5 over/under)
I’m to start much of my roster construction around the real life game of the night: Toronto at Tampa Bay. Over their past 10 games the Maple Leafs have a GF/60 of 3.56 — third-highest in the NHL. Their SCF/60 over their past 10 games of 32.85 is good for the fourth-best in the league over the past 10 games — and their HDCF/60 of 12.33 is good for eighth-best in the NHL over the past 10 games. This month Toronto has scored a league sixth-best average of 3.67 goals for per game.
The following chart, Per LeftWingLock, shows us the top line combos in the NHL over the past 10 games:
Of course we have to account for the huge loss of Auston Matthews and the line combo shuffle that comes with his shoulder injury, but as a team Toronto has played an excellent brand of hockey winning nine of their past 10 games and I wanted to show this chart as an example how Toronto has found scoring all over the lineup. There were seven goals scored in the Boston vs. Toronto game on Saturday night and I expect a similar fast paced style against the Lightning tonight. Over their past 10 games the Tampa Bay Lightning have a SCF/60 of 31.86 — seventh-best in the league. Tampa Bay’s GF/60 over their past 10 games is good for seventh-best in the NHL. This month the Lightning have scored a league third-best 3.83 goals for per game and have scored a league-best 14 power play goals. Tampa Bay has won four of their past five games. While I believe we will have a fast-paced game with plenty of goals I have to lean on Tampa Bay on home ice — but I do think we get nice value stacks on the Toronto end.
Our Line Stacks
Tampa Bay
Line One
VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV $5.9K
STEVEN STAMKOS $8.7K
RYAN CALLAHAN $3.3K
Line Two
ALEX KILLORN $5.1K
BRAYDEN POINT $6.4K
NIKITA KUCHEROV $9.2K
Line Three
CHRIS KUNITZ $3.6K
YANNI GOURDE $5.8K
TYLER JOHNSON $6.3K
Power Play Stack
VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV
STEVEN STAMKOS
ALEX KILLORN
NIKITA KUCHEROV
(D) VICTOR HEDMAN $7.1K
Power Play Two Stack
RYAN CALLAHAN
BRAYDEN POINT
YANNI GOURDE
TYLER JOHNSON
(D) MIKHAIL SERGACHEV $4.3K
Toronto Stacks (From what I’ve seen this morning it looks like Plekanec is on the fourth line for Toronto tonight — double check this as we get closer to puck drop)
Line One
PATRICK MARLEAU $6.3K
NAZEM KADRI $6.5K
MITCH MARNER $6.6K
This line has been hot with a GF/60 of 4.31 over their past 10 games, a SCF/60 of 30.19 and a HDCF/60 of 11.86. Over their past 10 games this line has eight goals and 56 SCF.
Line Two
ZACH HYMAN $4.5K
WILLIAM NYLANDER $6.3K
CONNOR BROWN $4.0K
Line Three
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK $6.9K
TYLER BOZAK $4.8K
KASPERI KAPANEN $3.0K
Power Play Stack
NAZEM KADRI
TYLER BOZAK
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK
MITCH MARNER
(D) MORGAN RIELLY $4.5K
Power Play Two Stack
PATRICK MARLEAU
WILLIAM NYLANDER
JOSH LEIVO $3.0K
CONNOR BROWN
(D) JAKE GARDINER $4.9K
Some key stats of Toronto players: Gardiner has one goal and five assists over his past seven games. Marner has three goals and three assists over his past four games. Kadri has two goals and two assists over his past four games. van Riemsdyk has two goals, three assists and 13 shots on goal over his past five games.
The Philadelphia Flyers have won five straight games and tonight head to Montreal to take on a Canadiens team that has lost seven of their past eight games. This month the Flyers have scored an NHL seventh-best average of 3.58 goals for per game and have a power play with a success rate of 25.0 percent. Montreal has allowed an average of 2.91 goals against this month have had the second-worst penalty kill in the NHL with a kill rate of just 69.7 percent.
Going back to the chart above the CLAUDE GIROUX/SEAN COUTURIER/TRAVIS KONECNY line has been the most productive line in the NHL over the past 10 games with 11 goals for and 106 shot attempts for. We should also look to Philadelphia’s power play against Montreal tonight.
Philadelphia Stacks
Line One
CLAUDE GIROUX $7.9K
SEAN COUTURIER $7.3K
TRAVIS KONECNY $5.8K
Line Two
JORDAN WEAL $3.1K
NOLAN PATRICK $4.5K
JAKUB VORACEK $7.3K
Power Play Stack
NOLAN PATRICK
SEAN COUTURIER
JAKUB VORACEK
CLAUDE GIROUX
(D) SHAYNE GOSTISBEHERE $6.7K
Power Play Two Stack
JORDAN WEAL
VALTTERI FILPPULA $3.6K
TRAVIS KONECNY
OSKAR LINDBLOM $3.0K
(D) IVAN PROVOROV $5.0K
Nolan Patrick is a great value play tonight. Over his past six games four goal, one assist and 18 shots on goal. Shayne Gostisbehere has eight points over his past six games. Claude Giroux has three goals and five assists over his past four games. Sean Couturier has one goal, three assist and 16 shots on goal over his past five games.
Notes:
-Really keep your eye on the NHL trade deadline today. It ends at 3 p.m. A player like Thomas Vanek is one to watch. As of this writing Vancouver has been holding Vanek out of games with the hope they can move him. If a trade can’t be reached he’ll simply slide back into Vancouver’s lineup and your Vancouver stacks would have to be changed.
-I really like a PP1 stack on the Capitals side tonight. This month Washington has clicked on 26.9 percent of their power play chances this month. Look to NICKLAS BACKSTROM/ALEX OVECHKIN/JOHN CARLSON power play stack to fill out some of your lineups tonight.
-Brock Boeser has points in three straight games in addition to nine shots on goal. I would certainly look to him as a one off play tonight for Vancouver.
-Nathan MacKinnon has two goals and three assists (including a monster 48.20 FanDuel point night on Feb. 20) and has to be considered in all formats
-Stats in this article are courtesy of Corsica, ESPN, NaturalStatTrick and Hockey-Reference and are up to date as of Feb 25.
-As always, please double check all line combos, injuries, and starting goalies prior to puck drop.