NFL Picks Success Rate

AGAINST THE SPREAD – 2014-2023

%

Best Confidence Picks (2015)

%

Best Overall Picks (2014)

%

10-Year Confidence Picks

%

10-Year Cumulative

star 52.4% = AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PERCENTAGE REQUIRED star

Standings of Experts’ Picks

AGAINST THE SPREAD – COURTESY OF NFLPickwatch

2019 ATS Accuracy

  • 1. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 55.9%
  • 2. Ryan Fowler – Pickwatch – 55.6%
  • 3. Howie Kussoy – NewYorkPost – 54.7%
  • 4. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 54.6%
  • 5. Tara Sullivan – Boston Globe – 54.4%
  • Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 50.4%

2019 Correct Picks ATS

  • 1. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 146
  • 2. Ryan Fowler – Pickwatch – 144
  • 3. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 143
  • 4. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 142
  • 4. Nate Davis – USA Today – 142
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 130

2018 ATS Accuracy

  • 1. Jamey Eisenberg – CBS – 53.9%
  • 2. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.7%
  • 3. Ben Volin – Boston Globe – 53.6%
  • 4. Mike Clay – ESPN – 53.2%
  • Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
  • 5. Chris Simms – Bleacher Report – 50.9%
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 49.5%

2017 ATS Accuracy

  • 1. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 54.9%
  • 2. Frank Schwab – Yahoo! – 54.2%
  • 3. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.5%
  • 4. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 53.1%
  • Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
  • 5. Jacob Feldman – MMQB – 52.3%
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 51.4%

2015 Correct Picks ATS

  • 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 141
  • 1. Jason La Canfora – 141
  • 3. Pickwatch – Best Defense – 139
  • 3. Josh Katzowitz – 139
  • Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 127

2014 Correct Picks ATS

  • 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 145
  • 1. Tim Cowlishaw – 145
  • 3. Jason La Canfora – 141
  • 4. Neil Greenberg – 138
  • Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 130

Sign Up for Full Access

We get it…

You have responsibilities. A relationship. A job. You want to be more involved in the world of sports, but the time isn’t always there. So you play fantasy sports. Maybe build a daily lineup. Even pick some games or join an office pool. But without putting in the time to research, you are left guessing.

Our responsibility is to you. Our relationship is with the sport. Our job is to do the legwork so you don’t have to.

Sporfolio is your ‘sports portfolio.’ We predict. They play. You profit.

Mario's NFL 2024 Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Football is back and, with it, Mario Mergola’s industry-leading against-the-spread picks! He breaks down every game on the schedule, gives an against-the-spread pick for each, and lists six confidence picks.

FREE COLUMN - DFS Picks: Game-by-Game DFS Analysis

Every week, we go through each game of the main slate and Primetime to give analysis based on game flow. This article remains completely free for everyone! No membership required. Read about Week 11 here.

Mario's AFC Picks and Predictions

One of Mario Mergola’s most profitable articles is his NFL preview pieces, split into NFC and AFC. Over the last seven seasons, the over/under win total picks from here resulted in a 53-33-2 record. This year, Mario has fourteen picks split evenly over the two conferences.

Mario's NFC Picks and Predictions

One of Mario Mergola’s most profitable articles is his NFL preview pieces, split into NFC and AFC. Over the last seven seasons, the over/under win total picks from here resulted in a 53-33-2 record. This year, Mario has fourteen picks split evenly over the two conferences.

Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bets

Sure, they never win. Sure, they’re ridiculous. But they’re also a ton of fun. Prop bets are sometimes the most entertaining part of the Super Bowl, and this year’s column has some crazy ones as well as actual picks. Read it here.

2023 NFL Postseason Picks and Predictions

With the playoffs about to begin, Mario looks at each team’s odds and gives his playoff picks and predictions.

Gain Access to Top NFL picks in 2023

Football is back! And so are our industry-leading picks against-the-spread. Join an exclusive community today centered around building your sports portfolio through daily fantasy sports and NFL picks. 2022 Season: 143-132-9 All Picks Against the Spread

9-Year Total All Picks Against the Spread: 1264-1108-67

9-Year Total Confidence Picks: 518-443-26

MLB 2023 Season-Long Predictions

Major League Baseball is back! Mario Mergola gives his full prediction and more than a dozen picks for season-long futures. Read it here.

NASCAR is here!

NASCAR leads the way back into the world of sports following the COVID-19 pandemic, and we are thrilled to bring its coverage to you. Lucas Hall will handle the DFS articles, while members can access our all-inclusive, ever-growing spreadsheet.

Hockey - DFS and Picks

Hockey is back in the Sporfolio offering and now has both DFS plays and picks! Programmed by some of the best minds in the DFS world, our hockey algorithm – affectionately called, “The Phoenix” – is available now for all Sporfolio subscribers.

Diamond Dividends

Sporfolio’s Mario Mergola just released his first book: Diamond Dividends: Creative Strategies to Profit Through Fantasy Baseball. Grab a copy today in either paperback or eBook and win your fantasy league!

AS SEEN ON:

See How Much Our Members Earned in 2020

Set the amount you would have risked on each game to see what our 2020 NFL picks against-the-spread would have earned for you. The calculation assumes using a 3:1 ratio of risk for confidence picks to standard picks and even considers fees from standard -110 odds!

Total$

NFL Picks

After months of waiting, we go back to our origins with our best-in-class football analysis. From a 53.9% success rate in our confidence picks and 53.3% success rate in all games against-the-spread over the last nine seasons combined to back-to-back “championships” for most correct against-the-spread picks among experts tracked by NFLPickwatch, we have a unique outlook on the sport of football that is unparalleled throughout the industry.

Returning member? Interested in joining? Either way, read our “Welcome Back, NFL” post and get acquainted with Sporfolio.

Hockey is Back!

The NHL season is back, and so is Dan DeAngelis with his outstanding hockey insight and picks. He starts the 2023-2024 season off with a breakdown of both conferences and his favorite future picks from each, as well as picks for Opening Night. Read his free articles here:

Eastern Conference Futures

Western Conference Futures

Opening Night Picks

NFL Picks Success Rate

AGAINST THE SPREAD – 2014-2020

%

Best Confidence Picks (2015)

%

Best Overall Picks (2014)

%

9-Year Confidence Picks

%

9-Year Cumulative

star 52.4% = AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PERCENTAGE REQUIRED star

Standings of Experts’ Picks

AGAINST THE SPREAD – COURTESY OF NFLPickwatch

2019 ATS Accuracy

  • 1. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 55.9%
  • 2. Ryan Fowler – Pickwatch – 55.6%
  • 3. Howie Kussoy – NewYorkPost – 54.7%
  • 4. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 54.6%
  • 5. Tara Sullivan – Boston Globe – 54.4%
  • Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 50.4%

2019 Correct Picks ATS

  • 1. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 146
  • 2. Ryan Fowler – Pickwatch – 144
  • 3. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 143
  • 4. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 142
  • 4. Nate Davis – USA Today – 142
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 130

2018 ATS Accuracy

  • 1. Jamey Eisenberg – CBS – 53.9%
  • 2. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.7%
  • 3. Ben Volin – Boston Globe – 53.6%
  • 4. Mike Clay – ESPN – 53.2%
  • Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
  • 5. Chris Simms – Bleacher Report – 50.9%
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 49.5%

2017 ATS Accuracy

  • 1. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 54.9%
  • 2. Frank Schwab – Yahoo! – 54.2%
  • 3. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.5%
  • 4. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 53.1%
  • Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
  • 5. Jacob Feldman – MMQB – 52.3%
  • Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 51.4%

2015 Correct Picks ATS

  • 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 141
  • 1. Jason La Canfora – 141
  • 3. Pickwatch – Best Defense – 139
  • 3. Josh Katzowitz – 139
  • Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 127

2014 Correct Picks ATS

  • 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 145
  • 1. Tim Cowlishaw – 145
  • 3. Jason La Canfora – 141
  • 4. Neil Greenberg – 138
  • Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 130

Success Stories from Our Picks

“As a long-time follower of Mario’s picks and a subscriber to this site, I’m more than happy to recommend it. More than the picks themselves, however, I am a big fan of the writing, as Mario really lets you into his rationale and betting strategy. This has helped make me a much better bettor, and I am very thankful for that.”

-David (from Montreal)

Sign Up for Full Access

See For Yourself - NFL Picks Against the Spread (Week 3)

Mario Mergola’s industry-leading picks against-the-spread were outstanding in Week 3, and we have unlocked that specific article for anyone to read for free. It’s a good example of the type of analysis provided on weekly basis.

See For Yourself - NFL Week 3 Game-by-Game DFS Analysis

Our Week 3 DFS game-by-game analysis column was a hit on many levels. It is now open to all to read as an example of what we provide to our members on a weekly basis during the NFL season.

Recent Posts

NFL Picks: 2024 Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

While we didn't get back everything from two weeks, we saw a rebound in Week 11. And there's no real secret as to why that happened -- and, in fairness, will happen again. We lean on the same trends and patterns constantly, and those will produce better results over a long period of time. There is admittedly a problem, though. This week features numerous games with large spreads, lopsided matchups, and division games. There's a difficult mix of those aforementioned trends, and it is, once...

DFS Plays: NFL 2024 DFS Week 11 Picks

Based on our expected Week 11 DFS game flow analysis and Week 11 DFS Overview published earlier, we can carry our thoughts into actual lineup positions. The long list of players that fit the requirements set forth by the projected flow of the game was cut dramatically by the requirements set forth by salaries. Below are Sporfolio's DFS Week 11 Plays: Quarterback Geno Smith - This is not the first time we have used Geno Smith in our lineups, and it probably won't be the last. It's largely...

DFS Plays: NFL 2024 Week 11 Game-by-Game DFS Analysis

Sporfolio's NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS...

NFL Picks: 2024 Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Not great. That was not a great way to follow-up a solid week and, what's worse about it is that underdogs performed quite well and we did not. But, as always, we know this is a long season, and we have to keep moving forward through it. If, nothing else, we have some outstanding matchups on the schedule for Week 11 where, remarkably, we are already into the second-half of the year. Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are...

DFS Overview: NFL 2024 Week 11

In this set of DFS Overview for Week 11, Mario will list his favorite teams/games/players for the weekend or highlight some that might be getting too much attention and hype.  Top Teams/Games to Target Chicago Bears -- probably 'contrarian' Detroit Lions -- definitely 'chalky,' but worth it Las Vegas Raiders -- definitely 'contrarian' Cleveland Browns -- definitely 'contrarian' Baltimore Ravens -- probably...

2024 NFC Full Season Predictions

Sporfolio’s full season predictions for the National Football Conference in 2023 include a breakdown of every NFC team, a projected record, the expected conference champion, and seven over/under win total picks. Over the last seven seasons, the over/under win total picks have gone 53-33-2!

NFL 2024: Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Mario Mergola breaks down this week’s action and gives an against-the-spread pick for every game.

2024 AFC Full Season Predictions

Sporfolio’s full season predictions for the American Football Conference in 2024 include a breakdown of every AFC team, a projected record, the expected conference champion, and seven over/under win total picks. Over the last six seasons, the over/under win total picks have gone 53-33-2!

DFS Game Flow

The overall picture of picking games against the spread in a given week would be incomplete without the individual pieces – the players. The rise of daily fantasy sports has provided an avenue for taking predictions about a given set of games even further, where both the teams and players can be assembled into a portfolio.

Despite efforts to separate the two, they actually go hand-in- hand, where the players impact the flow of the game that will ultimately complete the picture. Our team specializes in offering these DFS picks driven completely by ‘game flow,’ where scenarios of success are crafted on the foundation of our industry-leading picks ATS.

Week 4 2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread Column

“Drew Brees…gives the Saints the obvious edge…”

“It is likely already too late for the Saints…but a home game in primetime against an injured Cowboys’ team might be the Saints’ last hope. Keep in mind that the Saints were 2-4 and hosting the seemingly unstoppable Packers in a Sunday Night Football contest, last season. New Orleans won by three touchdowns.

Week 4 2015 Results

New Orleans Saints 26, Dallas Cowboys 20

Drew Brees: 33-for-41, 359 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 25.4 DraftKings points, 22.4 FanDuel points

Week 8 2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread Column

Denver’s defense — allowing the fewest yards and second-fewest points per game in the league — will provide the toughest test that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have seen to date, and the perceived large gap between the two teams will be closed. Denver, like Green Bay, is perfect in regular season home games since the beginning of 2014.

The Broncos hand the Packers their first loss of the season…

Week 8 2015 Results

Denver Broncos 29, Green Bay Packers 10

Aaron Rodgers: 14-for-22, 77 passing yards, 0 passing touchdowns

Denver Defense: 10 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 safety

FREE: NFL Week 11 Game-by-Game DFS Analysis

Sporfolio’s NFL Week 11 DFS column includes game-by-game analysis for DFS plays based on expected game flow. These projections are driven by our industry-leading picks against the spread.

DFS Plays: Week 11 NFL DFS Picks

Based on Sporfolio’s game-by-game analysis, we condense our list of targets for Week 11 and provide our best DFS plays of the week.

MEMBERS ONLY: Week 11 DFS Overview

Sporfolio’s list of games, teams, and players to target and avoid touches on a handful of matchups that are either undervalued as potential stacks or being too aggressively ‘bought’ and will likely not produce as expected. In addition, we offer a few picks for over-under point totals.

Sporfolio Origins

Created by Mario Mergola – one of the industry leaders in NFL picks against the spread – Sporfolio aims to continue the trend of creative analysis Mergola championed over the past years while writing for XN Sports. During this time, Mergola ranked first among experts’ NFL picks against the spread in back-to-back seasons, as tracked by NFLPickwatch.com. His first two seasons’ of NFL picks against the spread can be found in the archives, while much of his work can still be read on XN Sports. Now, he also contributes to FantasyPros and OwnersBox.

Mario Mergola is also the author of Diamond Dividends: Creative Strategies to Profit Through Fantasy Baseball, and his fantasy baseball rankings are also included in FantasyPros’ expert analysis challenge.

Sporfolio is NOT a gambling website. The information provided here is for entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of State, Federal, or Local Laws is strictly prohibited. Please see our terms and conditions below for more information.