NFL Picks Success Rate
AGAINST THE SPREAD – 2014-2023
%
Best Confidence Picks (2015)
%
Best Overall Picks (2014)
%
10-Year Confidence Picks
%
10-Year Cumulative
52.4% = AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PERCENTAGE REQUIRED
Standings of Experts’ Picks
AGAINST THE SPREAD – COURTESY OF NFLPickwatch
2019 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 55.9%
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 55.6%
- 3. Howie Kussoy - NewYorkPost - 54.7%
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 54.6%
- 5. Tara Sullivan - Boston Globe - 54.4%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds - 52.4%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 50.4%
2019 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 146
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 144
- 3. Case Keefer - LasVegasSun - 143
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 142
- 4. Nate Davis - USA Today - 142
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 130
2018 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Jamey Eisenberg – CBS – 53.9%
- 2. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.7%
- 3. Ben Volin – Boston Globe – 53.6%
- 4. Mike Clay – ESPN – 53.2%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Chris Simms – Bleacher Report – 50.9%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 49.5%
2017 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 54.9%
- 2. Frank Schwab – Yahoo! – 54.2%
- 3. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.5%
- 4. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 53.1%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Jacob Feldman – MMQB – 52.3%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 51.4%
2015 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 141
- 1. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 3. Pickwatch – Best Defense – 139
- 3. Josh Katzowitz – 139
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 127
2014 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 145
- 1. Tim Cowlishaw – 145
- 3. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 4. Neil Greenberg – 138
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 130
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We get it…
You have responsibilities. A relationship. A job. You want to be more involved in the world of sports, but the time isn’t always there. So you play fantasy sports. Maybe build a daily lineup. Even pick some games or join an office pool. But without putting in the time to research, you are left guessing.
Our responsibility is to you. Our relationship is with the sport. Our job is to do the legwork so you don’t have to.
Sporfolio is your ‘sports portfolio.’ We predict. They play. You profit.
AS SEEN ON:
See How Much Our Members Earned in 2020
Set the amount you would have risked on each game to see what our 2020 NFL picks against-the-spread would have earned for you. The calculation assumes using a 3:1 ratio of risk for confidence picks to standard picks and even considers fees from standard -110 odds!
NFL Picks
After months of waiting, we go back to our origins with our best-in-class football analysis. From a 53.9% success rate in our confidence picks and 53.3% success rate in all games against-the-spread over the last nine seasons combined to back-to-back “championships” for most correct against-the-spread picks among experts tracked by NFLPickwatch, we have a unique outlook on the sport of football that is unparalleled throughout the industry.
Returning member? Interested in joining? Either way, read our “Welcome Back, NFL” post and get acquainted with Sporfolio.
Hockey is Back!
The NHL season is back, and so is Dan DeAngelis with his outstanding hockey insight and picks. He starts the 2023-2024 season off with a breakdown of both conferences and his favorite future picks from each, as well as picks for Opening Night. Read his free articles here:
NFL Picks Success Rate
AGAINST THE SPREAD – 2014-2020
%
Best Confidence Picks (2015)
%
Best Overall Picks (2014)
%
9-Year Confidence Picks
%
9-Year Cumulative
52.4% = AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PERCENTAGE REQUIRED
Standings of Experts’ Picks
AGAINST THE SPREAD – COURTESY OF NFLPickwatch
2019 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 55.9%
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 55.6%
- 3. Howie Kussoy - NewYorkPost - 54.7%
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 54.6%
- 5. Tara Sullivan - Boston Globe - 54.4%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds - 52.4%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 50.4%
2019 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 146
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 144
- 3. Case Keefer - LasVegasSun - 143
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 142
- 4. Nate Davis - USA Today - 142
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 130
2018 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Jamey Eisenberg – CBS – 53.9%
- 2. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.7%
- 3. Ben Volin – Boston Globe – 53.6%
- 4. Mike Clay – ESPN – 53.2%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Chris Simms – Bleacher Report – 50.9%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 49.5%
2017 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 54.9%
- 2. Frank Schwab – Yahoo! – 54.2%
- 3. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.5%
- 4. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 53.1%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Jacob Feldman – MMQB – 52.3%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 51.4%
2015 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 141
- 1. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 3. Pickwatch – Best Defense – 139
- 3. Josh Katzowitz – 139
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 127
2014 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 145
- 1. Tim Cowlishaw – 145
- 3. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 4. Neil Greenberg – 138
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 130
Success Stories from Our Picks
“As a long-time follower of Mario’s picks and a subscriber to this site, I’m more than happy to recommend it. More than the picks themselves, however, I am a big fan of the writing, as Mario really lets you into his rationale and betting strategy. This has helped make me a much better bettor, and I am very thankful for that.”
-David (from Montreal)
@MarioMergola Hey Mario - I followed your picks ats all year and you assisted me a bunch! Just want to say thanks.
— David Wighton (@dwighton) February 6, 2016
WINNERS overall!!! It’s a long season and all Mario does year after year, is WIN against the spread.
— Chris Gutierrez (@socalseniors) September 9, 2021
@MarioMergola Mario, wanted to thank you for all the picks v spread all yr! Im in the money thx to you! Cant wait til next yr.
— 3commastequilla (@PaulyPavillain) January 6, 2016
@MarioMergola Thanx for the outstanding season Mario! Excellent analysis as always! Can't wait to read your write up for the WC Games
— Mark K (@StandupRealtor) January 4, 2016
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See For Yourself - NFL Picks Against the Spread (Week 3)
Mario Mergola’s industry-leading picks against-the-spread were outstanding in Week 3, and we have unlocked that specific article for anyone to read for free. It’s a good example of the type of analysis provided on weekly basis.
See For Yourself - NFL Week 3 Game-by-Game DFS Analysis
Our Week 3 DFS game-by-game analysis column was a hit on many levels. It is now open to all to read as an example of what we provide to our members on a weekly basis during the NFL season.
Recent Posts
2024 NFC Full Season Predictions
Sporfolio’s full season predictions for the National Football Conference in 2023 include a breakdown of every NFC team, a projected record, the expected conference champion, and seven over/under win total picks. Over the last seven seasons, the over/under win total picks have gone 53-33-2!
NFL 2024: Super Bowl LIX Pick Against the Spread
Mario Mergola breaks down this week’s action and gives an against-the-spread pick for every game.
2024 AFC Full Season Predictions
Sporfolio’s full season predictions for the American Football Conference in 2024 include a breakdown of every AFC team, a projected record, the expected conference champion, and seven over/under win total picks. Over the last six seasons, the over/under win total picks have gone 53-33-2!
DFS Game Flow
The overall picture of picking games against the spread in a given week would be incomplete without the individual pieces – the players. The rise of daily fantasy sports has provided an avenue for taking predictions about a given set of games even further, where both the teams and players can be assembled into a portfolio.
Despite efforts to separate the two, they actually go hand-in- hand, where the players impact the flow of the game that will ultimately complete the picture. Our team specializes in offering these DFS picks driven completely by ‘game flow,’ where scenarios of success are crafted on the foundation of our industry-leading picks ATS.
Week 4 2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread Column
“Drew Brees…gives the Saints the obvious edge…”
“It is likely already too late for the Saints…but a home game in primetime against an injured Cowboys’ team might be the Saints’ last hope. Keep in mind that the Saints were 2-4 and hosting the seemingly unstoppable Packers in a Sunday Night Football contest, last season. New Orleans won by three touchdowns.“
Week 4 2015 Results
New Orleans Saints 26, Dallas Cowboys 20
Drew Brees: 33-for-41, 359 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 25.4 DraftKings points, 22.4 FanDuel points
Week 8 2015 NFL Picks Against the Spread Column
“Denver’s defense — allowing the fewest yards and second-fewest points per game in the league — will provide the toughest test that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have seen to date, and the perceived large gap between the two teams will be closed. Denver, like Green Bay, is perfect in regular season home games since the beginning of 2014.
The Broncos hand the Packers their first loss of the season…“
Week 8 2015 Results
Denver Broncos 29, Green Bay Packers 10
Aaron Rodgers: 14-for-22, 77 passing yards, 0 passing touchdowns
Denver Defense: 10 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 safety
FREE: NFL Conference Championships Game-by-Game DFS Analysis
Sporfolio’s NFL Conference Championships DFS column includes game-by-game analysis for DFS plays based on expected game flow. These projections are driven by our industry-leading picks against the spread.
DFS Plays: Conference Championships NFL DFS Picks
Based on Sporfolio’s game-by-game analysis, we condense our list of targets for the Conference Championships and provide our best DFS plays of the week.
MEMBERS ONLY: Week 18 DFS Overview
Sporfolio’s list of games, teams, and players to target and avoid touches on a handful of matchups that are either undervalued as potential stacks or being too aggressively ‘bought’ and will likely not produce as expected. In addition, we offer a few picks for over-under point totals.
Sporfolio Origins
Created by Mario Mergola – one of the industry leaders in NFL picks against the spread – Sporfolio aims to continue the trend of creative analysis Mergola championed over the past years while writing for XN Sports. During this time, Mergola ranked first among experts’ NFL picks against the spread in back-to-back seasons, as tracked by NFLPickwatch.com. His first two seasons’ of NFL picks against the spread can be found in the archives, while much of his work can still be read on XN Sports. Now, he also contributes to FantasyPros and OwnersBox.
Mario Mergola is also the author of Diamond Dividends: Creative Strategies to Profit Through Fantasy Baseball, and his fantasy baseball rankings are also included in FantasyPros’ expert analysis challenge.
Sporfolio is NOT a gambling website. The information provided here is for entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of State, Federal, or Local Laws is strictly prohibited. Please see our terms and conditions below for more information.